Westministenders: Back to School

[RedToothBrush]

No, I'm not referring to the start of a new parliamentary season, I'm referring to the number of politicians who need to literally go back to school. Its embarassing, and worrying.

Anyway, here is a slightly lengthy, end summer news round up for you.

The Brexit Headlines
It seems to be Cabinet Office policy to push for the Chequers Deal or for No Deal Even though Macron has very firm, plainly and clearly said "non" in no uncertain terms. Its significant because its come from the official Brexit Department and not from a sweating Dominic Raab at Dexeu.

He has however delivered the first batch of the Brexit Untechnical Papers which are supposed to advise what to do in the event of No Deal. In reality this is a PR exercise, which makes the assumption that some sort of minimual deal will have been done, rather than no deal at all, combined with a very practical plan for 'a wing and a prayer'. Which is a bit of an issue if we decide that we really are going to stick to the line that its Chequers or no deal.

These untechnical papers are ludicarious shallow, which some having the audaciency to say "plan for the news rules, but we haven't actually decided what the news rules are and we'll get back to you as soon as we've made them up". The completely skirt the entire subject of NI, saying merely, more or less "oh that one will just work itself out". Despite the untechnical papers don't include the crucial aviation one, which apparently was held back because it was regarded as 'too shambolic' which is quite the statement, if you've read any of them. Nor do they include details of the contract for hundreds of portaloos to line our motorways so that lorry drivers can still take a pee whilst they are stuck in queues for days. They might starve and no one else will have any food because all the lorries are stuck, but hell they'll be no exposure on the M20 to offend you.

Its not quite as bleak as it sounds though. The Chequers Deal is a vision of our future relationship with the EU. Its not the Withdrawal Deal. And the Withdrawal Deal (and backstop) is the thing that needs to be done in Oct / Nov. Which then will lead on to talks about the Chequers Deal. You can't talk about Chequers without having ALREADY agreed the Withdrawal. Which is very important to keep in mind as its continuely being lost in the media coverage. Could it be that all the sudden noise from the Cabinet Office, is an attempt to distract in the short term to protect the Withdrawal phrase?

Also as an alternative to Chequers, Macron is reportedly expected to propose something akin to an 'associate member' style agreement for the UK with a vision for the EU and its allies to form a series of "concentric circles", with Britain closely tied to the 27 "core" EU member states. If this sounds familiar it is. Guy Verhofstadt has been banging on about this as an idea since before Brexit. Its also a plan which has long been muted by Barnier too. It will probably go down like a lead balloon here, but there is a political will in the EU for a deal. There just isn't in the UK.

More generally in UK politics
Jeremy Corbyn has had a nice relaxing summer but after the hard upcoming weeks ahead, I think he'll still be looking forward to his holiday plans for the Autumn Break, when he visits Israel to profess he's still definitely not an anti-semite, because look he's visiting the evil Zion and talking to Jews. He will spend the next few month telling us that No Deal is a Very Bad Idea, whilst also trying to get his MPs to vote in ways that are a Very Bad Idea. Meanwhile the rest of Labour will indulge in a very public slanging match which most normal people have long since stopped caring about in anyway because they are so bored and disappointed in how far heads have been inserted up backsides.

Theresa May, has been in Africa, where she is trying to get trade deals with lots of countries we already have trade deals with through the EU. She's also in the midst of a fight with Spreadsheet Phil who has been busy telling her to butt out of the budget and realising information to undermine the 'No Deal' narrative all week. Oh and trying to persuade beg Mark Carney to stay another year at the BoE cos no one wants his job. Rees-Smug has been up to his usual English Gentleman Act where he replicates the MPs of the Victorian Era who were into fucking those from the colonies whilst stripping them for asserts, with impecable manners. Boris Johnson is looking for his next photo op where he can look zany and drop a headline grabbing offensive comment. If it winds May up, so much the better. The Tory Creche outing to Birmingham looks like its going to be a scream.

I should say something about the LDs here, so here's a tumbleweed for you.

Back to Brexit
The fishing wars have started. Michael Gove has yet to be sighted in a souwester though (give it time). The Scallop Wars are an insight into why we need a relationship with the EU. It turns out that the French are pissed because we've been using these big fuck off ships which dredge the sea bed and are a ecological disaster and haven't observed a break for a 'breeding season' this year, whilst the French are forced to do so by law. We had been observing an informal agreement where we stick to the same rules, but for some reason this year, some bright spark though it was a bad idea for us to do so. So the French have got a bit shirty in response. Gove is spitting the dummy and saying we will do something. The reality? Well what exactly can we do apart from go to the EU and use the EU courts apart from patrolling the seas with a lot of customs boats and officials we don't have? Cod Wars III here we come!

We've also announced plans for brand new white whale money pit satellite to circle solely over the UK. We aren't in need of coverage for the rest of the world, so we aren't going to waste money on flying over anywhere else who isn't prepared to help contribute financially to its construction. It is going under the draft name of 'Heliocentre'

In other news
If none of this cheers your spirits, then great news; Good Old Nige is making a come back!!! He's dead excited because he's planning his first big Nazi Leave means Leave rally in Bolton where he act out his childhood Hitler fantasy. It'll a cost you a fiver to get in. He's also bored and worried about his income, as he's now considering getting pasted in the London Mayoral Election for the publicity. So soon his face will be back on your TV boxes for Questiontime. Are you all so happy.

I rather suspect the Greens won't be objecting and will be only too happy they aren't getting the publicity they deserve as the 4th biggest party at the moment...

So the Summer is over and normal service is resuming. I hope you have enjoyed the rest and this post brings you a little up to speed. We have Party Conferences to look forward to in the upcoming weeks. Won't that be a joy to behold? And the resumption of shooting ourselves in the face in EU talks.

Oh and don't forget that Trump fellow too. Its all starting to look a bit tasty over there ahead of the November elections. What happens there in the next couple of months might be very important to what happens over here.

Who is excited?!

I am just dancing to the sound of the South African Beats.

Woman I don't disagree, but I also think the subject works differently to different groups and sections of the public.

Antisemitism is not necessarily a priority to a huge percentage of the population.

The flip of it also includes rampant Islam phobia too, which I'd argue it far more potent in 2018. Seeing Corbyn 'side with the Palestines' plays to Islamophobia.

This the Tories going with the strategy above, play hard to islamophobia, class issues and poverty issues.

Corbyn can get antisemitic vote and part of the woke vote, whilst also horrifying a lot of anti-racists. Or at least make them turn off and disengage.

It's a stronger hand for the Tories to play. The cost / benefits in terms of attracting defectors by pursing this policy would work far more to their advantage.

Frankiestein - imo the simple definition of anti-Semitism proposed in the Guardian article is naive, vague and useless.

These supposed examples of antisemitism are at the heart of the debate. They include: “Denying the Jewish people their right to self-determination, eg by claiming that the existence of a state of Israel is a racist endeavour.” They also include: “Drawing comparisons of contemporary Israeli policy to that of the Nazis.” They point to the underlying purpose of the text: to neutralise serious criticism of Israel by stigmatising it as a form of antisemitism

When it comes to these elements, it needs to be asked why this particular language is so often used in criticism of the state of Israel? There are plenty of parties and ideologies and groups in the world, including the GOP, who have been fascist for a long time, but only since the election of Trump and the spectacle of the cronies crawling out of the woodwork has the label been consistently used. Why not use a label like Stalinist? Or common-or-garden imperialist? Or call Benjamin Netanyahu 'Attilla the Hun'?

The reason to use the label 'Nazi' as part of criticism of the policies of the state of Israel is to twist the Holocaust experience into something resembling a clash of equals, equals who were equally depraved, equally cruel, equally savage, and thus to completely erase sympathy for its Jewish victims.

woman I think Labour made a very cynical political calculation back in the 1990s, when it was clear that Muslim voters would heavily outnumber Jewish ones.

Corbyn isn't just being ideological - he is touting for votes by appealing to the worst instincts rather than trying to bring people together and find what we have in common.

Also, specifically wrt the IHRA definition, he has obviously made statements in the past which would be dredged up as clearly contravening the IHRA.

I remember him from his election as an MP in 1983 and he was always irresponsible and self-indulgent in what he said and with whom he associated;
he - and we - never dreamed he would be Labour leader or even a Cabinet Minister.

At a time when the Tory party has gone batshit and is totally ignoring its job as a govt, the Leader of the Oppositiin has taken his party offline too, to remove the obvious alternative.
Any bog standard Labour leader would be 30 points ahead imo - Blair managed nearly that against Major, who was a decent enough PM but leading a fractious & sleazy party.

It remains perfectly legal to criticise any policies and actions of the Israeli government anyone objects to. Anyone can do so without reference to attributes and actions of the Nazis, which always invite the conclusion that the Jews were as bad as Hitler said they were, and that the Holocaust was something they had coming. Use of the term Nazi is essentially an oblique denial of the Holocaust.

math imo, this is at the heart of the issue about Labour & anti-semitism:

the disgraceful equating of a nasty rightwing Israeli govt with the Nazi regime
the overly rough handling of mass riots, compared to the deliberate genocide of 6 million peaceful, law-abiding civilians

We should certainly be free to criticise the govt of Israel for some of its actions; when I have done so, I have never been called anti-semitic
but then I have never made the ridiculous and slanderous comparison to Nazis.

www.freemovement.org.uk/brexit-no-deal-eu-citizens-rights/

The rights of EU citizens in the U.K.
Their rights to stay are protected and they will not become ‘illegal immigrants’ or be in a no man’s land on the 30th March.

Of course things can change but it’s unlikely that anything else bar the Settled Status will be implemented.

Wrt the killing off of the three-year tenancy proposals:
The Treasury has also opposed the plan for fear that future property investment would be scared off [RTB's post Wed 05-Sep-18 09:54:57]

...And that won't do with such a major revolution about to take place. What's the use of orchestrating a massive economic disaster if the vultures can't take advantage of it because the little people have the right to sit tight for three years?

hermione The rights to stay are not protected in the same way as if there were a deal
So although I expect expats on both sides to be allowed to stay, we are just assuming / hoping govts will do the decent thing

Your link:
"Conveniently leaked Cabinet papers have indicated that, in the event of a no deal Brexit, the government proposes to “take the moral high ground” and allow EU citizens to stay in the UK."

That is May's govt, not a possible JRM or Boris govt, or any govt needing a convenient scapegoat.

It was also a leak when the hope is still for a deal. Not a public promise
The situation after no deal - if the worst case happens with shortages, spiked unemployment etc - could be different

My concern would be that a future govt would continue to let the "useful" ones stay, but maybe not e.g. SAHPs, retired or disabled E27 citizens

The 3 million org have been sufficiently concerned to write to Barnier asking that expats rights be ring-fenced, to apply even if there is no deal:

https://www.the3million.org.uk/publications

Stijn Smismans (professor of EU Law at Cardiff University) tries to answer these emotional questions in an enlightening article.

In summary, the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 provides a temporary cover so we will not be in a legal limbo on 30 March 2019,
but it will be a matter of days, weeks or months before new legislation is adopted, which can have the effect to change dramatically our lives.

I have to say, BigChoc, I don't think it's about the Muslim Vote. I think it started as defending Corbyn against charges based in his long support of Palestinians and criticism of Israel (and his similar friends). He is vulnerable there.

And it snowballed into something utterly horrendous.

If it had just been about the Muslim Vote, it wouldn't have wreaked damage throughout the Party, been weopinised by both sides in the internal Party civil war, and turned into something truly horrific amongst what is now known as the 'crank' wing of Corbyn's praetorian guard.

Indeed, it's even driven a fissure through the die-hard Corbyn supporters (those who voted for the JC8 and those voting for the JC9).

It's been horrific on social media.

It has, I think, been something extraordinary and horrible in politics. And I do think it was ultimately - however it started, used to harden the quite fanatical wing around Corbyn.

Nothing nearly as rational as 'going after the Muslim Vote'.

It was far more irrational, crazy and - frankly - terrifying than that.

I honestly think I saw something happen on twitter over the summer that just made me think of Walter Benjamin's use of the word 'occult'.

The social media users that seem to be rabidly pro-Corbyn are terrifying.

MrsR8 Exactly why I am concerned !

I have much more confidence that UK expats will be OK
The European Parliament, as well as several member govts, have expressed far more concern and interest in helping, than the Uk govt has for UK expats.

Sorry.

That was replying to a post way up thread.

Must.cstch.up.

Honestly, this summer has traumatised me. I'm off-loading. 💐

cat I may be wrong, but I think the original change in emphasis - I remember the powerful Jewish Labour grouping from my 1970s student days - was because of the changed numbers Jewish / Muslim vote and cold political calculation.
imo, that is why & when the party machine seemed to change direction in the 1990s

In former times, Livingstone would have been cut off at the knees for his views, before his career took off
However, I accept that maybe he and ideologues like him could have been the ones who originally changed the party's directions, rather than the machine politicians running their polls & dice.

We need the inside story, from someone at the top !

Anyway, I totally agree that in the last 15 or so years Labour acquired a significant minority of very nasty & sometimes batshit anti-semitic members & politicians
and that this was definitely not what the 90s party apparatchiks expected or intended in any way

Me three cat

Mrsr8 May has boxed herself in, nowhere to go.
If she gives in now, she'll be replaced by a Brexiter

The only hopes are:

• she will U-turn at the last moment - when it's too late to be toppled - maybe even January / February and requiring a 1 month A50 extension to allow time for all approvals
  This could even be her private fallback plan

• she / the Tories will be toppled and a new PM will sign the WA

mrs you hit the nail on the head for me there, I assumed May was intelligent but I think I was REALLY wrong.

Has anyone linked to the voting intention by age images Owen Jones has been tweeting yet?

Voting intentions mapped onto seats by 4 age categories. The last two (older voters) very, very blues.

Yes, I know we expect that but ... very, very blue.

I'd love you to have a look at it and see what you make of it, Red.

Tory HQ bans all Remainer / 2nd Ref events from conference program:

www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/tories-ban-pro-remain-campaigns-from-conference-brochure-1-5662640

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/05/chequers-plan-is-dead-says-mp-who-reported-rejection-by-barnier

Theresa May’s Brexit plan was left mired in uncertainty after reports that the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, told British MPs that “les propositions sont mortes” in a Brussels meeting.
The article is dated 5 Sept but if this is news to anyone in Westminster then shame on them.

The Labour MP Stephen Kinnock revealed that in talks this week Barnier had declared the Chequers proposals “dead” and suggested that there was a fundamental misunderstanding in the UK about how the single market worked.

“I can tell you absolutely, unequivocally, without a shadow of a doubt that Chequers is dead in the water. Michel Barnier made it crystal clear that Chequers is completely unacceptable to the EU,” Kinnock said.

The senior remainer urged the Brexit secretary, Dominic Raab, and the prime minister’s Brexit adviser Olly Robbins, appearing before the European scrutiny committee on Wednesday, to accept that Brussels was not simply “sabre rattling” as a negotiating tactic.

A voice crying in the wilderness, is Stephen Kinnock.

www.bbc.com/news/business-45419805

The obvious question about the shape of the bananas suggests itself...

However, I wonder if this is a testing of the waters, to see how this price hike goes down, in preparation for many more down the road.