Westministenders: Back to School

[RedToothBrush]

No, I'm not referring to the start of a new parliamentary season, I'm referring to the number of politicians who need to literally go back to school. Its embarassing, and worrying.

Anyway, here is a slightly lengthy, end summer news round up for you.

The Brexit Headlines
It seems to be Cabinet Office policy to push for the Chequers Deal or for No Deal Even though Macron has very firm, plainly and clearly said "non" in no uncertain terms. Its significant because its come from the official Brexit Department and not from a sweating Dominic Raab at Dexeu.

He has however delivered the first batch of the Brexit Untechnical Papers which are supposed to advise what to do in the event of No Deal. In reality this is a PR exercise, which makes the assumption that some sort of minimual deal will have been done, rather than no deal at all, combined with a very practical plan for 'a wing and a prayer'. Which is a bit of an issue if we decide that we really are going to stick to the line that its Chequers or no deal.

These untechnical papers are ludicarious shallow, which some having the audaciency to say "plan for the news rules, but we haven't actually decided what the news rules are and we'll get back to you as soon as we've made them up". The completely skirt the entire subject of NI, saying merely, more or less "oh that one will just work itself out". Despite the untechnical papers don't include the crucial aviation one, which apparently was held back because it was regarded as 'too shambolic' which is quite the statement, if you've read any of them. Nor do they include details of the contract for hundreds of portaloos to line our motorways so that lorry drivers can still take a pee whilst they are stuck in queues for days. They might starve and no one else will have any food because all the lorries are stuck, but hell they'll be no exposure on the M20 to offend you.

Its not quite as bleak as it sounds though. The Chequers Deal is a vision of our future relationship with the EU. Its not the Withdrawal Deal. And the Withdrawal Deal (and backstop) is the thing that needs to be done in Oct / Nov. Which then will lead on to talks about the Chequers Deal. You can't talk about Chequers without having ALREADY agreed the Withdrawal. Which is very important to keep in mind as its continuely being lost in the media coverage. Could it be that all the sudden noise from the Cabinet Office, is an attempt to distract in the short term to protect the Withdrawal phrase?

Also as an alternative to Chequers, Macron is reportedly expected to propose something akin to an 'associate member' style agreement for the UK with a vision for the EU and its allies to form a series of "concentric circles", with Britain closely tied to the 27 "core" EU member states. If this sounds familiar it is. Guy Verhofstadt has been banging on about this as an idea since before Brexit. Its also a plan which has long been muted by Barnier too. It will probably go down like a lead balloon here, but there is a political will in the EU for a deal. There just isn't in the UK.

More generally in UK politics
Jeremy Corbyn has had a nice relaxing summer but after the hard upcoming weeks ahead, I think he'll still be looking forward to his holiday plans for the Autumn Break, when he visits Israel to profess he's still definitely not an anti-semite, because look he's visiting the evil Zion and talking to Jews. He will spend the next few month telling us that No Deal is a Very Bad Idea, whilst also trying to get his MPs to vote in ways that are a Very Bad Idea. Meanwhile the rest of Labour will indulge in a very public slanging match which most normal people have long since stopped caring about in anyway because they are so bored and disappointed in how far heads have been inserted up backsides.

Theresa May, has been in Africa, where she is trying to get trade deals with lots of countries we already have trade deals with through the EU. She's also in the midst of a fight with Spreadsheet Phil who has been busy telling her to butt out of the budget and realising information to undermine the 'No Deal' narrative all week. Oh and trying to persuade beg Mark Carney to stay another year at the BoE cos no one wants his job. Rees-Smug has been up to his usual English Gentleman Act where he replicates the MPs of the Victorian Era who were into fucking those from the colonies whilst stripping them for asserts, with impecable manners. Boris Johnson is looking for his next photo op where he can look zany and drop a headline grabbing offensive comment. If it winds May up, so much the better. The Tory Creche outing to Birmingham looks like its going to be a scream.

I should say something about the LDs here, so here's a tumbleweed for you.

Back to Brexit
The fishing wars have started. Michael Gove has yet to be sighted in a souwester though (give it time). The Scallop Wars are an insight into why we need a relationship with the EU. It turns out that the French are pissed because we've been using these big fuck off ships which dredge the sea bed and are a ecological disaster and haven't observed a break for a 'breeding season' this year, whilst the French are forced to do so by law. We had been observing an informal agreement where we stick to the same rules, but for some reason this year, some bright spark though it was a bad idea for us to do so. So the French have got a bit shirty in response. Gove is spitting the dummy and saying we will do something. The reality? Well what exactly can we do apart from go to the EU and use the EU courts apart from patrolling the seas with a lot of customs boats and officials we don't have? Cod Wars III here we come!

We've also announced plans for brand new white whale money pit satellite to circle solely over the UK. We aren't in need of coverage for the rest of the world, so we aren't going to waste money on flying over anywhere else who isn't prepared to help contribute financially to its construction. It is going under the draft name of 'Heliocentre'

In other news
If none of this cheers your spirits, then great news; Good Old Nige is making a come back!!! He's dead excited because he's planning his first big Nazi Leave means Leave rally in Bolton where he act out his childhood Hitler fantasy. It'll a cost you a fiver to get in. He's also bored and worried about his income, as he's now considering getting pasted in the London Mayoral Election for the publicity. So soon his face will be back on your TV boxes for Questiontime. Are you all so happy.

I rather suspect the Greens won't be objecting and will be only too happy they aren't getting the publicity they deserve as the 4th biggest party at the moment...

So the Summer is over and normal service is resuming. I hope you have enjoyed the rest and this post brings you a little up to speed. We have Party Conferences to look forward to in the upcoming weeks. Won't that be a joy to behold? And the resumption of shooting ourselves in the face in EU talks.

Oh and don't forget that Trump fellow too. Its all starting to look a bit tasty over there ahead of the November elections. What happens there in the next couple of months might be very important to what happens over here.

Who is excited?!

I am just dancing to the sound of the South African Beats.

Huge with a lot of largely empty space

Are we talking about Canada or Boris Johnson here?

Huge with a lot of largely empty space

like the average Brexiteer head.

May doesn't have to get "no-deal" through:
no deal is the default

The problem for MPs who don't want this is that Parliament has extensive powers to block legislation,
but very limited to create policy, to instruct the govt to do something, especially against the will of the govt.

The "humble address" route would require MPs to vote for a Labour address / policy

The real power Parliament has is its "nuclear weapon:"
threatening (convincingly) to bring down the govt unless it U-turns and signs the draft WA the EU has prepared.

There are only a few weeks left at most; no time to start negotiating something new

If the UK just faffs / bumbles around until the A50 clock runs out, no deal is the automatic result

Don't underestimate the enormous advantage that gives the Ultras to obtain their scorched earth Brexit, in a bitterly divided govt and country

Labour have not clearly stated that they accept the commitments from the UK that EEA / EFTA would require:
on FOM, courts, contributions

EEA /EFTA is also only a framework for the WA and we would need thise 20 minths transition under current terms after Brexit

• maybe much longer considering the state of Uk politics -

to work out the details for a far larger and more complex economy than any of the existing EFTA members.

Labour have not clearly stated that they accept the commitments from the UK that EEA / EFTA would require: on FOM, courts, contributions

Just following the May "vague and vain" approach.

Can't blame them, on the one hand, they're slightly damned whatever they do, by dint of ... well, being Labour.

Which suggests that possibly the quickest way to reverse Brexit might be to get Corbyn and Labour to commit to it 101%, on the basis the media seem to base all their coverage on opposing whatever Labour say.

George Eaton @georgeeaton
Vote Leave head Matthew Elliott tells me the Brexiteers “left the battlefield” after the referendum and are paying the price.

Vote Leave head Matthew Elliott tells me that Theresa May triggered Article 50 too early and that Gove and Cummings should have run the Brexit department.

www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2018/09/vote-leave-head-matthew-elliott-brexiteers-won-battle-we-could-lose-war
Vote Leave head Matthew Elliott: “The Brexiteers won the battle but we could lose the war”

The influential campaigner says “the Leave side left the battlefield after the referendum” and fears a soft Brexit will result.

Peter Geoghegan @PeterKGeoghegan
What's really striking for the last 2 years is that asked what they would do differently Brexiters only talk about a) personnel (Robbins, etc), b) tone ('stand up', etc). Nada on content. Nothing. No ideas how to deal w/substantive issues.

Just a point, but Gove is now supposedly onside with a soft Brexit as a gateway to hard brexit, precisely because hard brexit isn't a viable option...

that possibly the quickest way to reverse Brexit might be to get Corbyn and Labour to commit to it 101%, on the basis the media seem to base all their coverage on opposing whatever Labour say.

I did wonder previously that possibly the most likely way to reverse Brexit might be to get Barnier etc to commit to saying the door is locked 101%, on the basis the media seem to base all their coverage on opposing whatever the EU say.

A bit puzzled by headlines in the Express (sorry) saying Mrs Merkel has 'caved in' to (something, difficult to see what).
It says Mrs Merkel is asking for LESS information from UK technical meetings and doesn't want other EU27 ministers involved in the UK talks.
While that may be an 'Express' stance I see it that Mrs Merkel is saying her and other ministers should stop hanging around in bars waiting for the UK to come up with a credible and permissible plan so NOTHING is a 'cave in' simply wait for the UK to stop pratting about.
Have I misinterpreted this and in fact the EU is going to give the UK everything it wants?

Private Eye have solid gold Brexit pieces everywhere, easiest to type ...

LANDMARK SOUTH AFRICAN SPEECHES

SuperMac 1960 "Winds of change."
SuperMay 2018 "Spare any change ?"

The Express might be following the same dim thinking of Brexiteers in believing that the EU is in someway obliged to come up with "a plan". I've heard quite a bit of discussion where it's obvious that they simply don't get it. If the UK doesn't come up with plan that can be accepted by the EU, there is no plan at all.

I suspect "no deal" will be played out as the EUs plan, not the UKs mess.

www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/brexit-divisions-are-getting-bigger-not-smaller-nrxktsmlp

An analysis by the pollster Peter Kellner, which should terrify the Brexiteers, found that — based purely on demographics — the Leave majority is shrinking by 1,000 a day and will disappear completely by the end of next year

Yep AFTER we ve left :(

i cannot believe they ll be another vote, there simply isn't the Parliamentary nor campaigning time before next March.

The £ rallied after reports that Germany is willing to leave aspects of the WA to be settled during the transition period.

You can bet that the aspects of the WA that can wait won't be stuff that is useful to the UK.
Once past the WA agreement the real details will become tough. There is ample opportunity for France/Germany/whoever to 'gang up' and block UK requests either directly or putting it into fast growing grass.

Sorry if this has had a mention already but has everyone seen the guest blog (and i think webchat) with Gina Miller as a sticky in active?

Mumsnet doing more for me than the government when it comes to brexit

A German govt spokesman has confirmed their position on Brxit is unchanged

Uk excitement over "Gemany dropping demands for a detailed post-WA plan" looks ridiculous:

it is only the UK that originally wanted that, to have the reassurance of a definite future trade deal before paying the exit bill;
Germany, like the EU Commission, preferred to leave it vague, because it depends too much on how post-Brexit negotiations go ... and whether the UK side finally starts being serious and competent about them.

The EU is sticking only to requiring detail on their 3 prerequisites:
NI border in particular, because expats rights and the exit bill look settled, if the WA is ever signed.

The Uk media, especially the Brexit supporters, are so desperate for good news that they seize any remark out of context and weave a fantasy around it.

btw, if the pound keeps rising with every false dawn, then slumping again, I wonder if some people are making money out of this UK media hysteria ?
An advance on the windfalls they expect from a no-deal Brexit or even CETA++ Brexit.

Well done labour, and the many anti semitic fellow travellers. You're in.

@libdemtom
Absolute scenes at Newcastle City Council as the gallery is in riot with protesters who are against the the council adopting the IHRA definition of antisemitism!
twitter.com/libdemtom/status/1037428288069808128

As of 23.00 on 29th March, if there is no Withdrawal Agreement and therefore no Transition Period, 3 million citizens from other EU countries risk losing their status as legal residents in the UK.

I dont think that’s true because te government has voted to pass the December 17 agreement through as law.
So whilst people need to register to get their Settled Status (because it proves they are settled, aka have live de in the uk for 5 years or more), they can stay and live in the uk as they were before the vote (benefits, pension, nhs etc etc)
As far as I know there is no risk anymore for EU citizen to end up in a no man’s land on the 30th March

What's really striking for the last 2 years is that asked what they would do differently Brexiters only talk about a) personnel (Robbins, etc), b) tone ('stand up', etc). Nada on content. Nothing. No ideas how to deal w/substantive issues.

Like all the far right parties in other eu countries.
All of them have faired so badly once elected that people don’t want them anymore.

The issue we have is that we’ve embraced a far right position but wo electing them so someone else is left to do the dirty work....
Plus of course the consequences aren’t quite the same than if it was a local election.

Kieran Pedley @ kieranpedley
It’s quite amazing how much importance seems to be placed on the Israel - Palestine conflict in Labour circles when in reality there isn’t loads the British govt can do about it.

TSE @ TSEofPB
If I were a Tory strategist I'd be hammering home this message

"Jeremy Corbyn is more focussed on Palestine than on the concerns of people in Peterborough. He would rather talk about Hamas and Israel than about housing and immigration".

And this is where the anti-Semitism thing will be hurting Labour most. It won't be down to how horrified people are because of the racism. It'll piss people off because its student politics which doesn't touch the everyday life of 'ordinary working people who are just trying to get by'.

Every time Labour talk about anti-Semitism they aren't talking about housing, health and food which people connect to.

These are things Labour have been scoring well on with a lot of voters. But if Labour aren't talking about those things and are too busy naval gazing they will miss opportunities.

And that's why the Sun Editorial today was having a right go at May and Hammond for back tracking on three year fixed rental tenancies.

The Cons have always been more popular with home owners. There is an argument that they can afford to be a little complacent with that, and instead have a big push on policy development on tencancy for renters. Landlord types are not going to vote for Corbyn anyway.

Anti Israel and anti semitism is a vote winner, always was and always will be. The BDS boycott and numerous other media campaigns have normalised it. Corbyn just needed to light the touch paper. He's not as daft as he looks.

No, expats rights are not safe:

If there is no deal, it depends how spiteful the Uk govt is feeling,
or if it feels it needs to divert some public anger about Brexit onto scapegoats.

Easy for the govt to renege on this promise, as they did on the NI border backstop, which was in the same 17 December draft agreement.

However, UK expats in the E27 countries, at least those expats who are self-supporting, would be treated at least as well as residents from other 3rd countries
EU rules follow the UN guidelines, so anyone resident & self-supporting for 5 years could stay.

In fact, I would expect the E27 countries to follow the December agreement and let any UK expats stay who are resident on Brexit Day - however, it would be a matter for the 27 individual countries after Brexit, unless the EU Parliament steps in.