Westministenders: Back to School

[RedToothBrush]

No, I'm not referring to the start of a new parliamentary season, I'm referring to the number of politicians who need to literally go back to school. Its embarassing, and worrying.

Anyway, here is a slightly lengthy, end summer news round up for you.

The Brexit Headlines
It seems to be Cabinet Office policy to push for the Chequers Deal or for No Deal Even though Macron has very firm, plainly and clearly said "non" in no uncertain terms. Its significant because its come from the official Brexit Department and not from a sweating Dominic Raab at Dexeu.

He has however delivered the first batch of the Brexit Untechnical Papers which are supposed to advise what to do in the event of No Deal. In reality this is a PR exercise, which makes the assumption that some sort of minimual deal will have been done, rather than no deal at all, combined with a very practical plan for 'a wing and a prayer'. Which is a bit of an issue if we decide that we really are going to stick to the line that its Chequers or no deal.

These untechnical papers are ludicarious shallow, which some having the audaciency to say "plan for the news rules, but we haven't actually decided what the news rules are and we'll get back to you as soon as we've made them up". The completely skirt the entire subject of NI, saying merely, more or less "oh that one will just work itself out". Despite the untechnical papers don't include the crucial aviation one, which apparently was held back because it was regarded as 'too shambolic' which is quite the statement, if you've read any of them. Nor do they include details of the contract for hundreds of portaloos to line our motorways so that lorry drivers can still take a pee whilst they are stuck in queues for days. They might starve and no one else will have any food because all the lorries are stuck, but hell they'll be no exposure on the M20 to offend you.

Its not quite as bleak as it sounds though. The Chequers Deal is a vision of our future relationship with the EU. Its not the Withdrawal Deal. And the Withdrawal Deal (and backstop) is the thing that needs to be done in Oct / Nov. Which then will lead on to talks about the Chequers Deal. You can't talk about Chequers without having ALREADY agreed the Withdrawal. Which is very important to keep in mind as its continuely being lost in the media coverage. Could it be that all the sudden noise from the Cabinet Office, is an attempt to distract in the short term to protect the Withdrawal phrase?

Also as an alternative to Chequers, Macron is reportedly expected to propose something akin to an 'associate member' style agreement for the UK with a vision for the EU and its allies to form a series of "concentric circles", with Britain closely tied to the 27 "core" EU member states. If this sounds familiar it is. Guy Verhofstadt has been banging on about this as an idea since before Brexit. Its also a plan which has long been muted by Barnier too. It will probably go down like a lead balloon here, but there is a political will in the EU for a deal. There just isn't in the UK.

More generally in UK politics
Jeremy Corbyn has had a nice relaxing summer but after the hard upcoming weeks ahead, I think he'll still be looking forward to his holiday plans for the Autumn Break, when he visits Israel to profess he's still definitely not an anti-semite, because look he's visiting the evil Zion and talking to Jews. He will spend the next few month telling us that No Deal is a Very Bad Idea, whilst also trying to get his MPs to vote in ways that are a Very Bad Idea. Meanwhile the rest of Labour will indulge in a very public slanging match which most normal people have long since stopped caring about in anyway because they are so bored and disappointed in how far heads have been inserted up backsides.

Theresa May, has been in Africa, where she is trying to get trade deals with lots of countries we already have trade deals with through the EU. She's also in the midst of a fight with Spreadsheet Phil who has been busy telling her to butt out of the budget and realising information to undermine the 'No Deal' narrative all week. Oh and trying to persuade beg Mark Carney to stay another year at the BoE cos no one wants his job. Rees-Smug has been up to his usual English Gentleman Act where he replicates the MPs of the Victorian Era who were into fucking those from the colonies whilst stripping them for asserts, with impecable manners. Boris Johnson is looking for his next photo op where he can look zany and drop a headline grabbing offensive comment. If it winds May up, so much the better. The Tory Creche outing to Birmingham looks like its going to be a scream.

I should say something about the LDs here, so here's a tumbleweed for you.

Back to Brexit
The fishing wars have started. Michael Gove has yet to be sighted in a souwester though (give it time). The Scallop Wars are an insight into why we need a relationship with the EU. It turns out that the French are pissed because we've been using these big fuck off ships which dredge the sea bed and are a ecological disaster and haven't observed a break for a 'breeding season' this year, whilst the French are forced to do so by law. We had been observing an informal agreement where we stick to the same rules, but for some reason this year, some bright spark though it was a bad idea for us to do so. So the French have got a bit shirty in response. Gove is spitting the dummy and saying we will do something. The reality? Well what exactly can we do apart from go to the EU and use the EU courts apart from patrolling the seas with a lot of customs boats and officials we don't have? Cod Wars III here we come!

We've also announced plans for brand new white whale money pit satellite to circle solely over the UK. We aren't in need of coverage for the rest of the world, so we aren't going to waste money on flying over anywhere else who isn't prepared to help contribute financially to its construction. It is going under the draft name of 'Heliocentre'

In other news
If none of this cheers your spirits, then great news; Good Old Nige is making a come back!!! He's dead excited because he's planning his first big Nazi Leave means Leave rally in Bolton where he act out his childhood Hitler fantasy. It'll a cost you a fiver to get in. He's also bored and worried about his income, as he's now considering getting pasted in the London Mayoral Election for the publicity. So soon his face will be back on your TV boxes for Questiontime. Are you all so happy.

I rather suspect the Greens won't be objecting and will be only too happy they aren't getting the publicity they deserve as the 4th biggest party at the moment...

So the Summer is over and normal service is resuming. I hope you have enjoyed the rest and this post brings you a little up to speed. We have Party Conferences to look forward to in the upcoming weeks. Won't that be a joy to behold? And the resumption of shooting ourselves in the face in EU talks.

Oh and don't forget that Trump fellow too. Its all starting to look a bit tasty over there ahead of the November elections. What happens there in the next couple of months might be very important to what happens over here.

Who is excited?!

I am just dancing to the sound of the South African Beats.

Farage is probably a significant reason why the EU wouldn't extend A50:
it would mean more years of the European Parliament suffering his outrageous insults and spreading of far right poison

e.g. his tirade at the Belgian-born EU President Herman van Rompuy.that Belgium is not a real country - an insult Farage repeated suring the Wrold Cup this year

btw, the claim that Belgium does not exist is an old UK hard right theme for some reason,
maybe because they cannot accept a country with multiple languages (but they accept Switzerland is "real")

Last time I looked the EU Parliament buildings were firmly built in Belgium. I suppose Mr Farage probably doesn't know this as he spent more time in the pub or cafe across the square (which is very pleasant) rather than in Parliament doing what he should have been doing.

Oh dear Mr Farage. You can't really bleat about two world wars and one world Cup without acknowledging the role of the Treaty of London.

www.financeuncovered.org/investigations/indefensible-how-housing-boss-scooped-174m-from-britains-property-boom/
‘Indefensible’! How housing boss scooped £174m from Britain’s property boom

John Healey MP @ JohnHealey_Mp
Bonanza bonuses and dividends for big developers, while home-buyers struggle with housing costs; my comment in @FinUncovered

Housing - and profiteering from housing - is an issue that's going to stay at the top of the agenda

Housing - and profiteering from housing - is an issue that's going to stay at the top of the agenda

Unlikely, when there's so much more interest in Corbyns socks, the weather on Pluto, and the fever pitch excitement of Celebrity Grills on Bare Island.

DGRosseti maybe at Westminster, but the public might think rather differently because they are struggling to pay the rent.

Food, shelter and health - three things that if people don't have them, it doesn't matter what the politicians say.

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
Olly Robbins just said Chequers was first time full Cabinet had discussed the 'common rule book' - quite something if you think how big a policy decision that was - her critics will see this as evidence of a classic May 'bounce' -

Thats US trade deal v being able to trade with EU based on EU rules.

I’m interested how the 3 million EU citizens are to be forced to leave - are the army and police to be sent to haul doctors, nurses, care workers, professionals, academics away from their place of work and bus them to Dover?

They won't be rounded up and bussed out - instead the government can create a 'hostile environment' (see Windrush for the blueprint).

As of 23.00 on 29th March, if there is no Withdrawal Agreement and therefore no Transition Period, 3 million citizens from other EU countries risk losing their status as legal residents in the UK. What this might mean in practice is that:

1. no employer can legally employ them - there are heavy fines for employing anyone who does not have the right to work in the UK. Even if the government suggests that EU citizens can remain, employers may consider the risk too great, or the paperwork too arduous;

2. no landlord can legally rent a property to them - again, there are heavy fines and the risk of imprisonment for doing so. If in doubt, landlords will err on the side of caution and not rent to EU citizens;

3. these people lose access to the NHS and to education system;

4. they might lose the right to own property or to hold a UK bank account or credit card.

So instead of deporting them, the government just makes it impossible for them to stay. When they leave, the government can then claim that they all left voluntarily.

The current proposal is for EU citizens to register for permission to stay after Brexit. Note, they are asking permission, not being granted the right automatically, and are required to pay for the privilege. As we have seen from Windrush (and other cases) the Home Office is adept at losing paperwork, delaying responses, asking for evidence that few people can produce, and rejecting applications without explanation or appeal. One might almost believe that the system is set up to discourage as many as possible from applying.

Isn't that the same Andy Burnham who very cynically declared himself a leaver as part of his campaign strategy to win election as Manchester Mayor.

I don't remember that. He's definitely an opportunist but I don't remember that. He was right here in March 2016.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12193432/Id-bet-on-a-Brexit-Andy-Burnham-says.html

A lot of those measures might fall foul of the HRA and be challenged in the ECHR, which the UK would still be a member of.

The idea of North Korea being able to lecture the UK - with some justification - on Human Rights makes me physically sick, to coin a phrase.

From the Telegraph link:
remote, arrogant and anti-democratic".

Is the charge being put against Brussels. Obviously the UK has to leave as that is a BRITISH position and it has to do it better than some bods in Brussels.
I would argue that as a Mayor (they) should do whatever is best for as many of the folks in the area (they) are representing. As such, wavering from in to out should not necessarily be held against them.
Thus NOW by my reckoning (and most on this thread) he should be doing everything to remain.

Simon Usherwood @Usherwood

Starmer: Labour would vote down Canada-style Brexit deal
www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/05/starmer-labour-would-vote-down-canada-style-brexit-deal?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet

I'm pretty sure the Windrush debacle was against the EHRC
It's not much protection when a govt is determined on hostility to ethnic minorities or even to its opponents

I do expect and require much higher standards for the UK than those of NKorea, or of Nazi Germany for that matter.
Same as I don't accept the living standards of Africa as a basis for calculating Uk benefits levels.

but we don't even know what a Canada deal would look like?

blah blah blah Canada UK blah blah blah ?

Sort of ctrl-H jobbie ? (And I used the word "jobbie" quite correctly)

Re Andy Burham

Ian Dunt @IanDunt
Andy Burnham disagrees with Andy Burnham about a second referendum. But who will win?

Compare comments ten days ago on 27th August
www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1009159/brexit-news-peoples-vote-second-referendum-campaign-andy-burnham-labour
This is what caused Brexit! Second referendum campaigners branded ARROGANT by Andy Burnham
MANCHESTER mayor Andy Burnham called campaigners for a second EU referendum "arrogant" today as Labour's civil war over Brexit deepened. The former Labour Cabinet minister warned that the demands for a fresh vote on the UK's relationship with Brussels risked making voters feel the political class "isn't listening".

With comments today 5th September
www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/05/andy-burnham-backs-second-brexit-vote-but-warns-of-social-unrest?CMP=share_btn_tw
Andy Burnham backs second Brexit vote – but warns of social unrest
Greater Manchester mayor calls for second referendum because chances of no deal now so high

Mrs8, I believe its Labour saying their policy is EEA/Norway/or similar

May CAN NOT get a deal through parliament if the ERG Rebels decide they want No Deal WITHOUT Labour support.

So its kinda a big deal.

I'm pretty sure the Windrush debacle was against the EHRC

So is blanket denial of the right to vote for prisoners ...

At the risk of sounding a bit dim, if a government is absolutely determined to ignore ECHR rulings, what is the final backstop ?

Oh i've just thought, it's the cavaliers and the roundheads isn't it?

The Brexiteers are Wrong but Romantic and the Remainers are Right but Repulsive. If only Farage had thought to be less skin-crawlingly horrible worn a big hat.

What about the labour fuckwits rebels?

If reports are right, there are WAY more Tory Rebels who are terrified of No Deal, than have previously rebelled, which means that there wouldn't be enough Labour Rebels to save May's neck that way.

Its really a numbers game and what MPs will do when it comes to going over a cliff or not.

CETA is a bare bones FTA, with limited applications and far from frictionless trade.
Canada has already found complications with access for some goods, e.g. for their meat

and Canada has a very different economy to the Uk, exporting many natural resurces that the EU needs, rather than manufactured goods and food that the EU can obtain elsewhere.

CETA is acceptable to Canada because their goods are mostly on ships which take weeks to arrive, hence plenty of time for all customs checks, ROO, phytosanitary etc
No comparison to trading frictionlessly with our nearest neighbours as at present, with fresh food, JIT components etc arriving within a few hours

BUT
The EU would not even consider CETA - or any other trade deal - without the NI backstop.
and not without sorting out expat rights and paying the bills owed.

Any trade deal would have to be unanimous

• and would take some years of expensive & scarce negotiating resources -

so I wouldn't expect the EU to even start negotiating one after Brexit until the NI border has been resolved.

The Commision would not even be able to obtain the mandate from the E27 heads of govts, especially the RoI, to start negotiating

Canada, Huge with a lot of largely empty space (although as a plus for them it is scenic but a hell of a lot of mosquitos).