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Brexit

Westministenders: Back to School

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 30/08/2018 13:01

No, I'm not referring to the start of a new parliamentary season, I'm referring to the number of politicians who need to literally go back to school. Its embarassing, and worrying.

Anyway, here is a slightly lengthy, end summer news round up for you.

The Brexit Headlines
It seems to be Cabinet Office policy to push for the Chequers Deal or for No Deal Even though Macron has very firm, plainly and clearly said "non" in no uncertain terms. Its significant because its come from the official Brexit Department and not from a sweating Dominic Raab at Dexeu.

He has however delivered the first batch of the Brexit Untechnical Papers which are supposed to advise what to do in the event of No Deal. In reality this is a PR exercise, which makes the assumption that some sort of minimual deal will have been done, rather than no deal at all, combined with a very practical plan for 'a wing and a prayer'. Which is a bit of an issue if we decide that we really are going to stick to the line that its Chequers or no deal.

These untechnical papers are ludicarious shallow, which some having the audaciency to say "plan for the news rules, but we haven't actually decided what the news rules are and we'll get back to you as soon as we've made them up". The completely skirt the entire subject of NI, saying merely, more or less "oh that one will just work itself out". Despite the untechnical papers don't include the crucial aviation one, which apparently was held back because it was regarded as 'too shambolic' which is quite the statement, if you've read any of them. Nor do they include details of the contract for hundreds of portaloos to line our motorways so that lorry drivers can still take a pee whilst they are stuck in queues for days. They might starve and no one else will have any food because all the lorries are stuck, but hell they'll be no exposure on the M20 to offend you.

Its not quite as bleak as it sounds though. The Chequers Deal is a vision of our future relationship with the EU. Its not the Withdrawal Deal. And the Withdrawal Deal (and backstop) is the thing that needs to be done in Oct / Nov. Which then will lead on to talks about the Chequers Deal. You can't talk about Chequers without having ALREADY agreed the Withdrawal. Which is very important to keep in mind as its continuely being lost in the media coverage. Could it be that all the sudden noise from the Cabinet Office, is an attempt to distract in the short term to protect the Withdrawal phrase?

Also as an alternative to Chequers, Macron is reportedly expected to propose something akin to an 'associate member' style agreement for the UK with a vision for the EU and its allies to form a series of "concentric circles", with Britain closely tied to the 27 "core" EU member states. If this sounds familiar it is. Guy Verhofstadt has been banging on about this as an idea since before Brexit. Its also a plan which has long been muted by Barnier too. It will probably go down like a lead balloon here, but there is a political will in the EU for a deal. There just isn't in the UK.

More generally in UK politics
Jeremy Corbyn has had a nice relaxing summer but after the hard upcoming weeks ahead, I think he'll still be looking forward to his holiday plans for the Autumn Break, when he visits Israel to profess he's still definitely not an anti-semite, because look he's visiting the evil Zion and talking to Jews. He will spend the next few month telling us that No Deal is a Very Bad Idea, whilst also trying to get his MPs to vote in ways that are a Very Bad Idea. Meanwhile the rest of Labour will indulge in a very public slanging match which most normal people have long since stopped caring about in anyway because they are so bored and disappointed in how far heads have been inserted up backsides.

Theresa May, has been in Africa, where she is trying to get trade deals with lots of countries we already have trade deals with through the EU. She's also in the midst of a fight with Spreadsheet Phil who has been busy telling her to butt out of the budget and realising information to undermine the 'No Deal' narrative all week. Oh and trying to persuade beg Mark Carney to stay another year at the BoE cos no one wants his job. Rees-Smug has been up to his usual English Gentleman Act where he replicates the MPs of the Victorian Era who were into fucking those from the colonies whilst stripping them for asserts, with impecable manners. Boris Johnson is looking for his next photo op where he can look zany and drop a headline grabbing offensive comment. If it winds May up, so much the better. The Tory Creche outing to Birmingham looks like its going to be a scream.

I should say something about the LDs here, so here's a tumbleweed for you.

Back to Brexit
The fishing wars have started. Michael Gove has yet to be sighted in a souwester though (give it time). The Scallop Wars are an insight into why we need a relationship with the EU. It turns out that the French are pissed because we've been using these big fuck off ships which dredge the sea bed and are a ecological disaster and haven't observed a break for a 'breeding season' this year, whilst the French are forced to do so by law. We had been observing an informal agreement where we stick to the same rules, but for some reason this year, some bright spark though it was a bad idea for us to do so. So the French have got a bit shirty in response. Gove is spitting the dummy and saying we will do something. The reality? Well what exactly can we do apart from go to the EU and use the EU courts apart from patrolling the seas with a lot of customs boats and officials we don't have? Cod Wars III here we come!

We've also announced plans for brand new white whale money pit satellite to circle solely over the UK. We aren't in need of coverage for the rest of the world, so we aren't going to waste money on flying over anywhere else who isn't prepared to help contribute financially to its construction. It is going under the draft name of 'Heliocentre'

In other news
If none of this cheers your spirits, then great news; Good Old Nige is making a come back!!! He's dead excited because he's planning his first big Nazi Leave means Leave rally in Bolton where he act out his childhood Hitler fantasy. It'll a cost you a fiver to get in. He's also bored and worried about his income, as he's now considering getting pasted in the London Mayoral Election for the publicity. So soon his face will be back on your TV boxes for Questiontime. Are you all so happy.

I rather suspect the Greens won't be objecting and will be only too happy they aren't getting the publicity they deserve as the 4th biggest party at the moment...

So the Summer is over and normal service is resuming. I hope you have enjoyed the rest and this post brings you a little up to speed. We have Party Conferences to look forward to in the upcoming weeks. Won't that be a joy to behold? And the resumption of shooting ourselves in the face in EU talks.

Oh and don't forget that Trump fellow too. Its all starting to look a bit tasty over there ahead of the November elections. What happens there in the next couple of months might be very important to what happens over here.

Who is excited?!

I am just dancing to the sound of the South African Beats.

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1tisILeClerc · 03/09/2018 11:47

Not entirely sure where you are going with the 'Nuclear' train of thought.
It has some leaky reactors and a hell of a lot of unwelcome 'waste' but has contracted the Chinese/French to build a new power station at Hinkley. Surely it's not the 'wrong kind of radioactivity? Nuclear in terms of 'deterrence' is one thing but actually USING one would be the end. Mrs May's 'hostile environment' will ensure people won't want to go to the UK, there will be plenty of world that is more welcoming. Shabby B&B in Blackpool doesn't quite hit the 'high life' somehow these days. Travel brochures tend to feature golden sands and 'naice' places.

DGRossetti · 03/09/2018 11:53

On the point of the second referendum, I find it very hard to believe that more people don't want one than do. If that is indeed the case, then I guess we are all done here. There is nothing more we can do.

I don't think it's quite that simple. First off, who the hell wants another referendum ever ?????

Secondly, I think the saner, wiser heads (puts hand up Hmm) are well aware of the scope for further outcome-rigging a second referendum might present. As things stand, I cam quite envisage a second referendum looking like this:
--------------------------------
DO YOU AGREE WITH THE BREXIT DEAL NEGOTIATED BY HER MAJESTIES GOVERNMENT ?

Yes:
---------------------------------

Practically, politically, and reasonably, any second referendum should give people the chance to accept whatever deal the UK government feels is best with an understanding that rejecting that deal is rejecting Brexit in it's entirety. You don't get to play winner stays on. But the problem there is "practical" - what's that ?; "political" - well politics, which was coughing up blood before the referendum died the day of it; and "reasonable" ? Well, need I say more ?

On the plus side (not for Netflix, etc) there'll be no need for box sets for the next 50 years. DW and I can live out the rest of our lives watching the unfolding, never-ending sitcom that is Brexit. Working titles: Are you being fucking served ?, Dad's Barmy; Not Spaced Anymore; No Black Books; The Vicars Daughter of Dibley (that's enough crap titles - ed.)

1tisILeClerc · 03/09/2018 12:05

I think the UK should have a 'try before you buy' experiment.
Half paid leave for all pilots due to fly aircraft in and out of the UK. (All grounded). Similarly all ferries. I think 2 weeks worth would be enough to make a point.
At the end of 2 weeks, see how the supermarkets are managing etc.

DGRossetti · 03/09/2018 12:09

Not entirely sure where you are going with the 'Nuclear' train of thought.

Why is it impossible that the UK could become a failed state with supposed access to nuclear weapons ?

Not such a dim question if it prompts the response that there UK can't just fire it's nukes independently Hmm.

(I will ignore the "can't happen here" train of dismissive thought ....)

We've pumped billions into overseas countries, in order to ensure they remain stable. Or (at the very least) the "right" people have their fingers on the buttons.

Maybe that's the Big Idea ... make the UK into such a basket case - with nukes - that the rest of the world just mails us cheques to keep them pointing the right way ?

If so, fuck me, it's genius !!!!!!

annandale · 03/09/2018 12:16

Oh yes DG.

Monty Python's Lying Circus
Closed (Borders) All Hours
A Touch of Permafrost

Yes, i certainly fall into the 'no more referendums, no, no, NO, NO, NEVER' category.

Was the last European coup/assassination Olaf Palme? Or Andreotti? I even watched the (totes awesome) film about andreotti and i still can't remember. Too proud to google.

DGRossetti · 03/09/2018 12:20

Was the last European coup/assassination Olaf Palme? Or Andreotti?

1989 - less than 30 years ago

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicolae_Ceau%C8%99escu

Note how they had to restage it for the cameras. Also notice how his wife was treated as an "off one, get one free" bargain Sad

Anyone who just says "that can't happen here" is being as racist (although in reverse ?) as the Brexiteers. There's nothing special about England, or the English. We're not some sort of chosen people. And there's no inherent reason apart from our history why we couldn't descend in that sort of horror and madness.

Oh, yes, I forgot. We stopped teaching history a long time ago.

BigChocFrenzy · 03/09/2018 12:30

I remembered Ceaușescu's grisly end - reminded me of Mussolini"s (I wasn't alive for the latter !)
I wasn't 100% sure if he was indeed the most recent ruler to be executed in a coup, as I lost track of the Balkans for a while.

BigChocFrenzy · 03/09/2018 12:35

Boris is neither a remainer nor a leaver, merely a Boriser

Almost all Tories with real convictions about Brexit are in the Ultras wing - and some of those are just true believers in loot.

nearly all the other MPs - May, Boris etc - just spout whatever helps their career.

annandale · 03/09/2018 12:36

Of course!! So much for me being focused on 1989.

woman11017 · 03/09/2018 12:45

When Was the last European coup/assassination ?
16.6.2016 Market Street, Birstall, West Yorkshire.

Mrsr8 · 03/09/2018 12:46

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

1tisILeClerc · 03/09/2018 12:57

Last use of Guillotine in France, 10 Sept 1977. Eligible for use until 1981.

woman11017 · 03/09/2018 13:04

When we ask why are our MPs and business leaders so terrified/flaccid about 'brexit', (and why the quality of permitted discourse on it is so bestial) I would direct us back to Cox's assassination. Everything changed on that day. She is memorialised in France and Belgium, and airbrushed out here.

DGRossetti · 03/09/2018 13:10

Last use of Guillotine in France, 10 Sept 1977. Eligible for use until 1981.

A quick check, and I apologise. I thought it's use was in 1981. Still a sobering fact.

DGRossetti · 03/09/2018 13:11

I remembered Ceaușescu's grisly end - reminded me of Mussolinis

Some more distant members of DFs family were there.

Mrsr8 · 03/09/2018 13:13

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

BigChocFrenzy · 03/09/2018 13:16

Maybe the NI backstop issue could be solved by letting the people of NI vote?

Deltapoll
1,199 people
Fieldwork 27-29 August in NI.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/brexit-would-boost-support-for-united-ireland-poll-finds-1.3616129

“Imagine now that the UK decided to leave the EU.
Under these circumstances how would you vote in a referendum on the constitutional arrangements of the island of Ireland?”

More than half – 52 per cent – said they would vote for a united Ireland,

while 39 per cent said they would vote for Northern Ireland to remain part of the UK.
< a clear margin of 13% >
...
“Arlene Foster and the DUP’s stance on Brexit has advanced the nationalist cause further than 40 years of IRA violence ever managed,”
< talk about unforeseen consequences ! I wonder if she now wishes they had backed Remain instead Wink >

BigChocFrenzy · 03/09/2018 13:18

btw, "imagine now that UK decided to leave the EU"
Do they think Brexit may not happen ?

1tisILeClerc · 03/09/2018 13:22

@DGR. I am not sure what the tariff number is but if you get an order in before March next year maybe they could be used to 'inspire' some traitors?

DGRossetti · 03/09/2018 13:28

talk about unforeseen consequences

Speaking of which, I saw a brief discussion about the fact that the depressed pound has not only forced some Brits to stay at home to holiday, but attracted more EU tourists who know a bargain when they see one.

I have visions of French, Dutch, German and (ideally !!!!) Spanish folk walking around Devon and Cornwall admiring the scenery, and suggesting to the locals they might buy a second home there, since the exchange rate is so favourable.

On a serious note, I wonder how low that exchange rate can actually go. Last crisis intervention I can recall was from a (non independent) BoE during Black Wednesday. When interest rates brushed 17% ?

Mrsr8 · 03/09/2018 13:35

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

1tisILeClerc · 03/09/2018 13:37

I could see lots of Russian and Chinese buying second homes in the UK.
The UK will become a vast 'history showcase' like Morwellam Quay and Beamish. People wearing 1970's costumes, Austin Allegros, 3 day week.

DGRossetti · 03/09/2018 13:40

I must admit there were a LOT of dutch and German tourists in Somerset this summer!

Could be a new thing ? After all, it's a beautiful part of Europe. Previously the strong pound made it less attractive to Europeans, but looking forward ? Presumably all the locals who were unemployed thanks to foreigners will be overjoyed at having jobs serving foreigners ?

The old adage about revenge being a cold dish seems apposite - as has been noted several times before, while we will all suffer, thanks to Brexit, it's the areas that voted heavily to leave that will be disproportionately affected.

Who knows, tourism to the South West might grow so much, they'll have to build some more golf courses ?

Havanananana · 03/09/2018 15:21

A large number of the Dutch and German tourists in the West Country are attracted by the landscapes and locations that they have seen in the German ZDF adaptations of Rosamunde Pilcher's books. The TV adaptations, in German but filmed in the UK, have been popular for years in Germany, Austria and the Netherlands.

RedToothBrush · 03/09/2018 15:39

Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall
Hearing whispers all of the JC9 slate (and Pete Willsman) have won their seats on the NEC...unconfirmed as yet...

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