What Do You Think Will Happen On Brexit Day?

[KennDodd]

Do you think street parties, riots, candlelit vigils, what?

Yes they were deluded idiots to vote us in but heroes in whose name Leave voters act to take us out.

midges funny you should mention all those who lived through the war voting for staying in the EU , a vote that won by a 30% margin and was supported in the media by The Telegraph and The Mail amongst others. Are we honestly to believe that all those who voted stay then did so because they gave little thought for all those who didn't survive the war ?

Who do you know who to believe, how can there truthfully be such polar opposites to the same thing, who’s telling lies and who’s not, or is the truth somewhere in the middle ?

Raab ... unveils plans to avoid chaos at borders and protect ex-pats

Nothing in todays No Deal papers addresses chaos at the borders. The papers clearly demonstrate that Raab understands nothing at all about trade, freight, logistics or customs procedures and has obviously not listened to anyone who does.

The only bit about ex-pats that I can find warns them that they cannot assume that their pensions will be paid after 29th March or that they can access any UK bank accounts or other financial agreements (annuities, insurances etc) that they hold. How does this protect them?

Rosstac who do I believe ? Not Dom that's for sure , I honestly don't think he could give a gnats chuff about the ordinary people of the UK.

frumpety He’s not the only one debunking the remainers Armageddon, But what is the truth ? And how can there be such a difference in opinions on the same subject,

Can we therefore stick to what is the law and what is fact and dispense with opinions Rosstac?

Raab has today confirmed that if there is no deal then UK ex pats will not be able to access UK bank accounts. Is that fact, opinion, good for the UK or good for the EU? And he is an arch brexiteer so quite keen on a no deal outcome.
Answer - fact and not good if you are a UK ex pat in the EU with UK bank savings or a UK based pension.

Rosstac
Try using a bit of thought rather than listening to government soundbites.
The UK had 'good deals', better in some aspects than several other EU countries because from the outset the UK have been on the sidelines whinging at the EU and not fully engaging. This allowed us to be part of 'good deals' because despite British petulance the other, particularly more Northern Europeans appreciated the similar capabilities of our scientists and engineers. Leaving will trash that and unless something near miraculous happens the UK will be WORSE off. Don't just dismiss that, look at the currency exchange falling as it has been doing for the last 2 years. The talk today about being a 'manufacturing powerhouse' again is total fantasy. We don't have the basic raw materials for a start so we need to be part of a bloc that trades on good terms. Shame we are about to leave the nearest bloc with the strongest ties with the UK.
The British 'industrial revolution' was great while it lasted (unless you were a child worker fatally dragged into machinery) but that is many years ago and the world has moved on.

Rosstac he hasn't debunked anything , he has simply stated something , this does not make it true and doesn't even mean he himself believes it , he has just said some words in an environment where nobody would argue with him.

There is enough wiggle room in the tech notices published so far to try and deflect attention from Government and specifically Leaver responsibility.
"You may need to think about tariffs and amend your contracts ". Don't need to think too much to know what that means.

"You may need to think about tariffs and amend your contracts "

From : HavanaCo UK
To : European Customer

Dear European Customer,

As you know, on 29th March 2019 the UK leaves the European Union. Following the advice of the UK Government, issued on Thursday 23rd August, I have to advise you that we need to think about tariffs (and non-tariff issues) and amend our contract with you accordingly.

I propose that the following points in the contract require amendment;

1. As we do not know what tariffs will be applied to our raw materials, we are unable to guarantee our final price to you – I propose that we increase our price to you by 20% just to be on the safe side.

2. There will almost certainly be delays in the import of our raw materials, and so we have decided to stockpile these. The additional cost of renting warehousing space and of financing and insuring this stock means that our price to you needs to be increased by another 10%.

3. Due to leaving the Union, we will be required to complete substantially more customs paperwork than before, employ additional staff, invest in new IT and software and engage the services of a Customs Agent. I regret that this will add around 10% to our costs, which we of course will need to pass on to you.

4. Assuming that our production schedule is not affected by a shortage of materials or staff, we should be able to meet the agreed delivery dates. However our haulier informs us that his vehicles would no longer be able to make three round-trips a week to Europe, as delays at the ports will only allow each vehicle to make one round-trip a week. As a result, he has been forced into increasing his freight rates three-fold. You will be pleased to hear that we will absorb some of this additional cost, however it will add another 10% to our final price to you.

5. There is the small issue of whether or not our haulier can actually continue to make deliveries in Europe, as his business and trucks will need to be licensed, as will his drivers. If he cannot deliver any further than to the UK port, we will of course be required to use a European haulier for the European leg of the delivery. I propose that we add another 10% to our price to cover either the cost of our haulier’s licenses or the contingency of hiring a EU haulier.

6. As you know, British goods entering the EU will be subject to import tariffs. These will be payable by you, as will the cost of the additional importing paperwork that you will be required to complete. We have no control over these costs as they will be levied by the EU, but our estimate is that you should allow an additional 40% on top of our net price.

I trust that you find this proposal acceptable and will agree to our contract being amended accordingly. There will be an amendment fee of €1,500 to do this.

Yours,
HavanaCo

-

From: European Customer
To: HavanaCo UK

Dear HavanaCo,

We refer to your recent proposal in which you explain that the price that we need to pay you from 29th March will increase by approximately 100%.

Please accept this note as IMMEDIATE CANCELLATION of our agreement.

Regards,

European Customer.

When I worked in Customs Clearance in Dover there were hundreds and hundreds of clearance clerks (we occupied most of the office space inside the dock gates)
Come 1988 they were all laid off
but those skills became hard wired
there will be quite a few old bikers and hippies in east Kent rubbing their hands that those skills will become VERY valuable again next year.

A T2 used to cost £12
a C16/C88 was £25
a C5 was around £30

I wonder what they will cost now (as the forms have not changed at all)
and how long it will take to clear a 100 part groupage of fresh goods
(ah the joys of 'turnout and tally' - happy memories)
to clear, allowing for demurrage of course

I think there's a distinct possibility of riots and violence and I feel very nervous for minority groups in this country. I can easily imagine nationalist groups on the march to celebrate then anti-fascist protesters showing up etc... If you think I'm being alarmist can you say you ever expected the 2011 riots to happen? The social conditions that helped bring those riots about have actually worsened in the years since plus police numbers have been stripped so...

Having just spent time in Switzerland, I feel that it will probably be fine (after a bit of adjustment).

I shall stockpile Aperol though, just in case.

@Downtheroadfirstonleft - this is not Switzerland. It may be tolerably ok eventually but we will not wake up in Switzerland the day we leave.
Foolish to think so, frankly.

Swiss society, attitudes and in general financial situation are rather different to the UK. Of course there are exceptions but Switzerland is 3 countries in one with quite distinct 'zones' with temperaments that roughly speaking follow the respective neighbours, which is very understandable. Having visited 2 of the 3 'zones' there is a distinct difference between the 'German' and 'French' influenced parts.

I don't relish paying Swiss prices with British pounds.

What has Switzerland got to do with Brexit ?
Switzerland is in the Customs Union and the Schengen Zone

The UK has never been in Schengen.
The UK is planning to leave the Customs Union.

Planes will be grounded.
Supermarket shelves will be bare.
Money will be devalued - 31% will be wiped off the value of your homes and savings.
The death rate in hospitals will rise as medicines and resources will become scarcer.
12% of workers will have no jobs to go to.
There will be rioting in urban areas.

Or, you know, none of these things will happen. #ProjectFear

@Rulebreaker.
Well the Pound to Euro rate has already fallen by around 7% since the 'vote' and Brexit hasn't actually happened yet. So that is one of your 'denials' busted already.
There was significant 'rioting' going on just because some blokes were kicking a ball about. When it dawns of various sectors that the sunlit uplands and unicorns will not appear for many more years there will be at least some unrest. Whether it is 'Leavers' miffed at the necessity for a pragmatic deal (which CAN'T be a 'hard Brexit) as Mrs May's / ERG red lines are unworkable, or whether it is Remainers pissed off that the Leavers have trashed the country. SOMEONE is going to be unhappy.

@Rulebreaker

Planes will be grounded - The EU spells this out in the event of no withdrawal agreement > www.politico.eu/article/airlines-customs-commission-to-eu27-prepare-airports-cargo-shipping-for-a-no-deal-brexit/

Supermarket shelves will be bare - it happened in many places last winter when snow prevented supplies from getting through. In a slightly different context, a German supermarket demonstrated what would happen if all imported goods were removed from their shelves > metro.co.uk/2017/08/23/supermarket-removes-all-foreign-groceries-from-shelves-to-make-point-about-racism-6872026/

Money will be devalued - already happened. June 2015, before Cameron announced Referendum, £1 = €1.44. This morning £1 = €1.10 - a fall of 32%. Every drug, medical device and isotope that the NHS imports from the EU now costs 32% more than 3 years ago.

The death rate in hospitals will rise - people will be lucky if they make it as far as a hospital. If the EU doctors and nurses leave, the NHS would be forced to go into 'Emergency Only' mode, which it already does frighteningly frequently.

12% of workers will have no jobs to go to - 2 million jobs in aero and auto manufacture, millions of hotel and hospitality jobs if travel in and out of the UK stops, thousands of logistics jobs.

There will be rioting in urban areas - there were punch-ups over the last teddy bear in the shop, punch-ups at shops on Black Friday. Hopefully people will be more restrained when queuing for the last loaf of bread in the shop, but who knows?

Rossac, one of the problems with putting this entire question to voters is that many, many people in positions of responsibility (hello Boris! Hello Raab!) have been happy to baldly lie in the comfortable realisation that many, many voters will just read a headline soundbite rather than actually look into what they're saying.

So here's what you do.

You look into what they are claiming. And then you ask yourself:

• HOW are they proposing this this going to work?
• WHY will it work? WHAT challenges/risks are they facing, and
• HOW are they mitigating them?
• WHAT will ensure this will succeed?
• WHAT is the current baseline, and
• HOW will we MEASURE success so we know they've accomplished what they said, and not just fobbed us off by changing the goalposts at the end and pretending that's what they intended all along?

If you follow this line of thinking on every article you read and check for the sources of any backing data (trade figures, treaties, legal agreements, regulatory bodies), you will quickly get a sense of how feasible the headline is, and whether it has any real substance to it.

It looks like we're heading towards a no deal exit, which would be chaos, who knows what will happen, we've got less and less time left.

I'm supporting Renew to stop that from happening! They're a new anti-Brexit party, and looks promising.
www.renewparty.org.uk

Assumption: No deal brexit

• First day, probably not much (kids go to school, birds fly, the normal stuff)
• First few days, trucks getting stuck at the border controls with our food and all other goods we import, with that inflation will peak. Everything else normal
• First week food shortages in our supermarkets and businesses shutting down their operations in UK to move elsewhere in Europe
• First few months europeans packing their bags to move where the money goes and with that taking the capital and know-how with them and more companies moving out. No major panic, life goes on

The birds may be flying, but will the planes be?