it is possible that flights stop a little after Brexit, if the legal penny drops late with other countries
Its one that you can't hide the effects of as being anything other than being directly related to Brexit too.
I may be too cynical, but surely if there's an aviation meltdown this can simply be pinned on the nasty EU for not letting us cherry pick and be a member of EASA but without being subject to the ECJ.
One minute I think there'll be no deal the next I think that Barnier has said we are 80% there. Aviation must be in that 80% for the following reasons...
We cherry picked staying in EASA but the sticking point was the ECJ. We have probably already chosen, behind the scenes, to pay to stay in EASA and continue with safety regulation being under the ultimate jurisdiction of the ECJ ?
So that is one of the easier red lines to cross.( EASAier-sorry.)
Our acquiescence on this must logically be part of the 80% that has already been accepted. If so, instead of sneakily accepting the status quo it would have been better to actually front up and be open and say " Look- these bloomin' regulations, that we helped make, in areas of safety,agriculture and workers rights do Not impinge significantly on sovereignty.We retain vast unilateral sovereignty in all other areas. A shared appeal court (ie the ECJ which has U.K. judges anyway) only applies in a minor range of matters. It isn't a problem. In fact it's easier to use this shared court (with British judges) on aviation and on other matters too."
That would have been better than the ridiculous grandstanding we are leaving everything and then trying to pay to cherry pick back in approach.
I do think TMs time st the Home office has framed her whole approach. She didn't like her couple of clashes with the ECJ. Even though it was in a teeny tiny percentage of Home Office affairs.
I just read this old article that explains why she's approached things in the way she has , and also why it wouldn't/ hasn't worked. Interesting.
So I don't know how I can feel we are looking at no deal and in the next breath think aviation will be ok. Perhaps it's wishful thinking .. but then there's a lot of that about.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/27/cherry-picking-worked-theresa-may-home-office-wont-save-brexit/