Westminstenders: Summer Season

[RedToothBrush]

No its not the weather making your brain rot and stop thinking.

Thats just Brexit.

OK I will stop now as my post has arrived. It was only a suggestion to cover getting essentials into the UK for a short duration while the ink dries on the documentation that the UK gov are beavering away with.

Bear in mind the US insists that some RAF engines are serviced in Turkey,

Now this is one area where 'taking back control' would be to our benefit.

Nary a peep from Brexiteers about the US insisting their engines are serviced in Turkey. So that's one argument for Brexit busted.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39501299

(18 month old story btw)

I suspect the story stops there, because any further noise would force the US to disclose why they have no intention of allowing the UK anywhere near US projects.

Maybe we could send JRM to Turkey, instead ?

It's probably just me but I am mildly amused that the UK's part in maintenance of the F-35 is the ejector seats. How apt!

LeClerc

Rather than being an equal partner with the USA maybe the 'special status' we have/had is more of a conduit between the USA and Europe, some sort of 'back passage' perhaps?

Havana I'm aware of the insurance requirement for planes, their components, servicing, crews, airports etc.

I'm just not sure whether some insurers might take a couple of weeks after a no-deal / inadequate deal Brexit to realise all the relevant implications:
much of UK business seems oblivious and imo even some EU businesses haven't fully understood all the possible ramifications.

I expect even the EU notices to stakeholders will have omitted some details - it is an incredible undertaking to cover all the problems that may arise when the world's No. 5 economy and No. 2 financial centre are taken off line.

We have no precedent in modern times

Military airlifts are of course the emergency fallback and the RAF should have sufficient lift capacity for essential meds & isotopes,
but not to bring in a significant % of current food imports for the nation.

We might need to ask the EU to help with their military, if food supplies were really held up,
but I really don't expect that to happen.
Maybe some local shortages, especially in rural or very poor areas, where the military might need to distribute existing supplies.

More likely is the emergency WTO waiver that lets in every lorry & container in without checking, including not just dodgy food but drugs, weapons, even slaves.

Remember the Chinese baby formula scandal of some years ago, with thousands hospitalised and many deaths.
We don't know what could get into the shops or food chain.
Maybe even show up only years later, in a chain of events, e.g. as unsuitable animal feed led to human CJD.

More likely is the emergency WTO waiver that lets in every lorry & container in without checking

Even if this happens there is a risk of very serious disruption unless the EU also waives controls and this is highly unlikely IMO.

If ferry operators cannot offload ferries efficiently because of congestion at the ports, capacity on the cross channel routes will be much reduced.

Will EU freight operators risk sending lorries on cross channel routes if they cannot get them back to Europe in a timely manner?

I think there is a serious risk of complete gridlock in the event of no deal, which means that a deal (a capitulation, probably) is almost certainly going to be done.

If I were a French trade union covering anything to do with ships or aeroplanes I would be considering lining my 'strike' up for 30 March.

It is not just the UK that is being caused to 'suffer' extra costs, many mainland Europeans are having their wallets forced open by this madness.

It is not just the UK that is being caused to 'suffer' extra costs, many mainland Europeans are having their wallets forced open by this madness.

The UKs stock in Europe is sinking pretty quickly. One worry, which hasn't yet emerged, but isn't beyond the bounds of possibility is that the European equivalents of our ill-educated, shouty rabble rousers set their sights on Brits abroad as being part of the problem they are fighting. Brexit has gifted every EuroKnucklehead an easy target to whip up support against.

For a moment, forget Brexit and think of Venezuela. Between 1952 and 1958 it's GDP was close to that of Germany.
Now people are prepared to walk thousands of miles to find food.
Corrupt and incompetent government.

Misti My understanding of how an emergency waiver would function - iff there is the no deal Brexit we fear - is that it really would be bare bones, to stave off civil disorder & even deaths,
but would not help the expected economic damage to the UK

The UK govt would need a system to only allow empty lorries - checked empty at the UK end - to travel to France to collect food imports.

There would have to be an emergency agreement for the French side to accept this.

Once at France, a French driver - due to certification / licence - would take over, even if the goods were at the port.

This is clearly a very cumbersome system and has many issues:

• Added time & costs hence price rises for the UK consumer
• The UK govt would actually have to wake up and organise this - maybe the EU Commission have a draft plan to hand over, for their helpless neighbour to use.
• Would only be for food & medical supplies - components for Uk manufacturing would not be regarded as a national emergency
• Would only be for UK essential imports - so huge rise in the current trade deficit. exports would not be permitted until the UK producers were certified and the UK was added to all the EU databases as a 3rd country - RNorth says this would take 6 months+ after Brexit

The EU would hopefully check their exports, to ensure their producers are not palming off dodgy goods

• they do this automatically afaik for 3rd countries However, in a new system, probably some confusion in the early weeks, so something could slip through

The real problem would arise in imports from non-EU countries, especially the US and China.
An emergency WTO waiver could allow the UK to only wave through EU / EFTA imports, but check the others.

However, the ERG might demand that "global Britain" allow imports from anywhere, especially from their friends in the USA etc.

@DGR
From the BBC news.
German far-right street mob alarms police in Chemnitz.

shrug

Generally the only things which are actually happening are the things that were predicted by Remainers.

Can't think of a single thing - not one - that Leavers predicted would happen has happened.

You're wrong DGR - there is one thing.......

Blue passports

I am afraid the 'Leaver's' train of logic is 'doing my head in'.
They want almost everything to change but stay the same.

Would they be the blue 'made in the EU' passports?
Sorry, mustn't mock, slapped wrists for me.

prettybird

except they haven't happened yet.

A money making opportunity for you @DGR, some special spectacles that make the usual passports LOOK blue. Some sort of rose tinting perhaps?

True DGR - but the contract has been let. unlike any of the "as as pie" trade deals

But as leClerc says - they're the "blue passports made in France" .

Would it be more important if the passports were made in France/Holland(?) by English 'migrants' or made in the UK by French/Dutch migrants?

Forgot the word "easy" or autocorrect deleted it for me

re Aviation - given that england are touring the windies - jan-mar 19, what are the odds that the team and barmy army can't get home?

may be sorted by May i guess, in time to meet pakistan, followed by the aussies - wonder if jrm is a cricket fan, the thought of him stuck in barbados is pleasant. :)