Westminstenders: In the Brexit Lane

[RedToothBrush]

I honestly couldn't think of a better starter to the thread than simply just this tweet

Robert Peston @ peston
We’ve got an official opposition tearing itself apart over antisemitism, the founder of the EDL running rings around the judiciary and a government negotiating a Brexit plan that its own MPs and ministers tell me is dead. When will we pull ourselves together, as a nation?

But don't worry, your blue passport will get you an extra special long wait at passport control. And no deal could lead to continued freedom of movement anyway. Something for everyone in there.

She said the EU were causing difficulty for insisting on a back stop as I recall.

Ah, but that's talk. What has she done ?

The whole Brexit board game is predicated on "da feelz" with fuck all relation to the real world. So unless Theresa May has actively done something to go back on the December agreement, speculation is fruitless.

Which is another reason there's so little coverage of Brexit outside the UK. Game Of Thones has better casting, more realistic characters, and a believable plot.

Andrea Jenkyns MP @ andrewjenkyns
Fantastic and great to see Pro-Brexit Health Minister @SteveBarclay defending the benefits of #Brexit.

Doctors could qualify more quickly after Brexit to solve staff shortages, minister says

Mark Elliott @ profmarkelliot
Every time I assume that the quality of post-Brexit political debate in the UK must have reached rock bottom, I find myself proved wrong.

To 'adequate food supplies', it seems that less well-qualified doctors can now be added in the 'Brexit dividend' column.

Parly @ parlyapp
.@SJAMcBride reports the Ian Paisley recall petition will be open for signature at three locations in north Antrim’s main towns – Ballymena, Ballymoney and Ballycastle. It opens next Wednesday and closes on 19 September.
Under the Recall of MPs Act 2015 if at least 10% of the number of eligible registered electors in the North Antrim constituency sign the recall in the specified period, the electoral officer notifies the Speaker and the seat is made vacant from the date of that notification.
Great detail on the ways a recall petition - this is the first time the Act has been used - differs from an election. @SJAMcBride
Because Mr Paisley’s 30 day suspension from the Commons begins 4th September, the day parliament returns from summer recess, the result of of the recall petition will be announced during his suspension. If it’s successful he immediately loses his seat and it is declared vacant.
Mr Paisley has said he will stand in the by-election if the recall petition is successful, though he remains suspended from the party and has had the DUP whip withdrawn.

I'll take your Andrea Jenkyns and raise you a Daniel Kawcynski:

Daniel Kawczynski
Daniel Kawczynski
@DKShrewsbury
The most frightening and demoralising aspect of current debate on #Brexit is that there are people in this country who appear to have greatly loyalty to the EU then to their own country. I find that incomprehensible and disturbing

Some great answers underneath though.

Blimey. Carney reveals the BoE recently ran a Brexit no deal exercise that saw property prices plummet by a third, interest rates go up to 4%, unemployment up to 9%, and a full blown recession.

That wouldn't necessarily be the worst thing for us. We'd lose equity in the house, but it possibly would make it easier for us to both sell and buy. DH's job is secure, and even if he did lose it, he'd have another job within weeks because he works in an area with a serious skill shortage.

Screws everyone else I know though in our peer group. Really badly.
Several I think would be in danger of losing their homes.

I don't much fancy, buying now and then getting hit with that kind of crash though. So perhaps I should be grateful, nothing is moving around here atm.

I really could do with knowing if its deal or no deal...

Leave.EU
Leave.EU
@LeaveEUOfficial
EU regulations currently prevent doctors from qualifying before five years of training. Just one of countless examples of EU "market building" that do nothing of the sort, instead causing disruption and impairing UK policymakers.

Conversation
Sarah Wollaston MP
Sarah Wollaston MP
@sarahwollaston
This is rubbish, faster post-grad courses already exist for those who have relevant degrees. It’s not a #Brexit dividend to have worse training for doctors fgs. What planet are these straw clutchers on?

The thing is i can understand why people hear house price crash and think great. I don't own my own house and probably never will. But crashing house prices through a recession is not going to solve the underlying problem of not enough housing stock, especially social housing and low wages.

I think a scheme where you can rent a council house then be given back say 10% of your rent when you leave to help you onto the ladder would be a good idea. It would free up council housing for new families and could replace right to buy. It probably wouldn't give you enough for a whole deposit but it would help. I know someone who was in a scheme like this in the seventies and it helped them buy their first home. Obviously a large social housing building plan would have to be done first.

How many households could weather a 4% interest rate rise?

Brexiteers, obviously. Anyone whose more than 15 years into their mortgage (that's us).

But crashing house prices through a recession is not going to solve the underlying problem of not enough housing stock, especially social housing and low wages.

Landlords will either quit (further depressing prices) or bump up rents to make up their losses (thus leading to a viscous spiral, as mortgages are cheaper than rent, again).

Either way, Not Good.

Of course inability to move will simply strain transport infrastructure even more.

This is what those "inefficiencies" we used to have in business allowed for - a cushion against sudden changes. The trouble is we've squeezed every last efficiency we can out of everything (look at the supply chain). Which is great while it works. But it makes it very sensitive to "events".

Theresa May and Emmanuel Macron: Inside the meeting to save Brexit

This was supposed to be a spoof, but I suspect that the editor read it and though it all too plausible

• hence the disclaimer at the bottom of the article !

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-latest-theresa-may-emmanel-macron-meeting-france-fort-bregancon-irish-border-eu-a8475271.html

Market forces would probably bring rents down if there is a Brexit recession and house price crash.

In a recession, less money means landlords have to drop rent, or have empty properties.
I was an LL from 1988 and like the other LLs, I had to drop my rent in the property slump a few years later

• even though I was in the SE, in a location very much in demand
• and even when my interest rate shot up to 15% for a few months when the UK crashed out of the ERM.

But crashing house prices through a recession is not going to solve the underlying problem of not enough housing stock, especially social housing and low wages.

If everyone with access to a foreign passport were to leave the UK, that would free up a lot of housing stock. (I grant you that affordability wouldn't necessarily be improved.) It's not even impossible that wages would rise, as they did even after the Black Death when something like a quarter of the population was wiped out. In practice I imagine the government would prefer to import third world workers than allow wages to rise. And job creation/increased wages/mortgage borrowing will have to wait until there's a functioning economy again, which could take years.

Anyone whose more than 15 years into their mortgage (that's us).

I could go through all our friends our age and just under one by one (Under 40). I think there's three couples I know I'd be reasonably confident to say they will be fairly ok.

Everyone else will be fucked. Every, single one. Badly. Several will have very serious financial problems. They are currently pretty comfortable. I really don't want to think about it tbh. It doesn't sit well to consider it. Only one is anything like a risk taker financially, and even then she's ridiculously frugal in other ways.

Its grim.

As for pensions... whats one of those?

DH thinks he'll work to the day he dies or losses his mind.

www.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/brexit-threatens-marks-spencer-sandwiches-france-chairman-113140354.html?__twitter_impression=true
Brexit threatens Marks & Spencer sandwiches in France: chairman

Help is at hand

It would be funny under different circumstances

How many households could weather a 4% interest rate rise

I think lots of my friends would really struggle. I have a feeling a lot of them are mortgaged to the hilt. Dh and I would manage, as long as we both keep our jobs . Maybe we won’t be ok

.

This is depressing:
www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/music/news/brexit-musicians-refuse-perform-uk-visa-process-womad-festival-chris-smith-a8464431.html

Thought the last pithy comment was interesting, and one that's not given enough credit by politicians and journalists.

There are undercurrents and sometimes surface currents speculating and oscillating about who's the favourite successor for May. Equally there's regular muttering about a need to replace Corbyn -but the key point is :

" Needless to say, [May] cannot survive either - but neither she nor any successor will ever have better cards to play."

http://politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2018/08/03/barnier-has-finally-killed-chequers-and-with-it-the-uk-gover

But this moment does feel different, and more serious. In the past the government could say that it was an ongoing negotiation. But our negotiating partner has now categorically rejected the UK’s formal document, on which, to boot, May has effectively staked her premiership. She will either have to agree to a full single market and customs union, or a Canada-style trade deal which splits the UK’s own single market with a regulatory border in the Irish Sea. Needless to say, she cannot survive either - but neither she nor any successor will ever have better cards to play.