Westminstenders: In the Brexit Lane

[RedToothBrush]

I honestly couldn't think of a better starter to the thread than simply just this tweet

Robert Peston @ peston
We’ve got an official opposition tearing itself apart over antisemitism, the founder of the EDL running rings around the judiciary and a government negotiating a Brexit plan that its own MPs and ministers tell me is dead. When will we pull ourselves together, as a nation?

But don't worry, your blue passport will get you an extra special long wait at passport control. And no deal could lead to continued freedom of movement anyway. Something for everyone in there.

I am re reading Adrian Mole. I wish Sue Townsend was still with us, she would write a wonderful book about all this nonsense.

BigChocFrenzy that link gave me an error message. Please could you elaborate re the age split? TIA

andhow Try this link:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulusuploads/document/4e1ciqwvua/Copy%20of%20PV%20results%20180807%20day%20onee_w.pdf

Interesting that for the questions below, addressed to Leavers only, there was little split in the answers

• the fundmental age split is Remain / Leave, but the small minority of the young who are Leavers have similar views to elderly Leavers.

Most voters think that Leave promises were misleading and that the Brexit deal will be bad; however, that doesn't change their views much re Leave / Remain - seems an identity / values / emotional decision, not economic or even NHS

I took a couple of screenshots:

YouGov (standard polling sampl, not their 10k+ Brexit poll)

Fieldwork Wednesday - Thursday
Changes are from the previous week

CON 39%(+1)
LAB 35%(-3)
LDEM 10%(nc)
UKIP 7%(+1)

Labour at only 35%, their lowest since the GE

• is that due to the antisemitism internal row, or just a statistical blip / outlier ? Either way, next week's poll could show them rising again, so don't get too excited.

However, one of the astonishing features of the Brexit mess is that Labour are not 20-30 % ahead, as Blair was against a far less disastrous Tory govt.
A dip of 3% was insignificant in those days of a huge Labour lead against a shambolic govt.

I wonder if even the govt publishing their 70 prepping papers at the end of the month will see them significantly behind in the polls.
It is understandable why Labour (very cynically) keep quiet and let / hope the Tories take the country over a cliff

• the Labour leadership judge that only economic Armageddon & general chaos would make voters desperate enough to elect them.

Labour at* only 35%, their lowest since the GE- is that due to the antisemitism internal row, or just a statistical blip / outlier ?*

The one track theme of anti semitism magically reappears in the press every single time the Tories dip in the polls. ( it's like Animal farm...Tory anti Islam - good. Labour anti -semitism bad)

Apart from religious discrimination the other main news item before this poll was Labour's Brexit non policy about a final say is likely to be challenged at the Labour conference. Within the party Support is growing for a vote on a final deal so the dip in the polls could be because :

• Labour voters don't want to risk a final Vote; or
• Labour voters do want a final vote and think Labour will avoid supporting it.

I'm afraid the UKIP rise suggests that wanting to avoid a final vote has been causative of Labour's recent dip.

What happened to Labour's 6 step test on the final deal anyway?.

1. Do current indications of any deal ensure a strong and collaborative future relationship with the EU?

Ha ha ha. And I'm a lifelong Labour voter so why aren't Labour banging on about their test not being met ? Are the keeping their powder dry for a dramatic final - or tests aren't met flourish?

1. Does it deliver the “exact same benefits” as we currently have as members of the single market and customs union? Non! Nothing on offer does.

3.Does it ensure the fair management of migration in the interests of the economy and communities?

Laughable.

1. Does it defend rights and protections and prevent a race to the bottom?

Maybe this one was a typo? Does it destroy rights and protections and ensure a race to the bottom?

1. Does it protect national security and our capacity to tackle cross-border crime?

1. Does it deliver for all regions and nations of the UK? ( The government impact assessment papers make the disproportionate impact on the NE in particular perfectly clear.)

Sorry lots of typos but you get the gist!

Pete North is on Twitter saying that if there was a second referendum, Leave 'would walk it'.

And then this in the replies: @BrynHarrisOx Major oversight by People's Voters: the Brexit process has caused UK voters to pay more attention to EU institutions & their personalities than (probably) ever before. With the exception of howl-at-the-moon #FBPE-ers, it's doubtful that what they've seen has impressed them much

It appears the delusion is strong even in intelligent, informed Leavers.

I would rather 'Leave walked it' than we sailed on regardless as though anybody knows what British public really wants, now.

It's precisely b/c in June 2016, so many people publicly said they deeply regretted their Leave vote, that we should have a confirmation Referendum.

leave/ remain seems an identity/emotional decision

I think unfortunately for a lot if people Remain= a diluted form of Britishness.
The problem here is the utter failure of the remain campaign and so-called liberal establishment to reclaim a positive discourse around identity. This needs urgently addressed or we'll see more brexit type decisions.

I don't want to digress too much but I've tried to do it at my own small scale: I've tried to instil in my children a sense of pride in all their identities (they have 3 nationalities that mean equally much to them...) I told them that most people think of identity as something tangible you can measure in %, like bread or milk (ie. You're 'half' something) but it's absurd! I got them to imagine their left leg was one thing and their right arm another etc. It's so ludicrous they laughed at that very hard so once they got that concept I moved on to explain that they're 100% X and 100% Y and 100% Z nationality. That they should never let anyone suggest they're less x because they're also y and z. That they're as much x as someone who's 'only' x or 'only' y.
Unfortunately that's something most people disagree with...

It would be pretty shitty for seaside remainers

DG It’s going to be pretty shitty for everyone. But yes, if the scenario you envisage comes to pass it will be grim for us. We’ve only just managed to make the long dreamed of move - in fact not quite moved yet! It’s a broadly leave-voting area but the population of small town we’re just about to go to has a large, liberal (broadest possible sense!) and, dare I say it - educated - contingent. Will be keeping my fingers crossed we escape the worst excesses of any stag/hen forced relocations!

It is understandable why Labour (very cynically) keep quiet and let / hope the Tories take the country over a cliff. Bigchoc Yes, because Labour are playing the same dispicable game of putting party ahead of the greater good of the country as the Tories. Shame on them all.

The vote was totally emotional for Leavers (imho).

I can't even say it was unemotional for many on Remain side (Project Fear was real for many).

I can't DEAL with this emotional world we live in. My emotional response is to want to throw things & mutter about crazy people.

I would rather 'Leave walked it' than we sailed on regardless as though anybody knows what British public really wants, now

Me too. If the vote is still to Remain at least we will all know the country actually knew what they were voting for.

Would Leave actually “walk” it? I struggle with the idea of lots of previous Remain voters switching to Leave.

Would Leave actually “walk” it? I struggle with the idea of lots of previous Remain voters switching to Leave.

I can’t see it either unicorn. When you consider the number of young people who would vote this time but weren’t eligible last time, the number of seniors who voted last time but won’t this time, the number of misguided leave protest voters last time. I can see Leave might scrape it again but not walk it.

Of course there will be people on both sides of the argument who didn’t bother to vote last time and would this time. How many on each side and how drastically might that sway it?

There are no good choices (sigh). Either side just scraping a victory is a fairly bad outcome, too.

Sam Coates of The Times describing a dreadful atmosphere with desperate, self-questioning, mainly Tory, MPs. ( Some do sound like they're losing it.)

End of days feel in a Westminster crying out for strong leadership

...However, there is evidence that these are particularly bleak days in Westminster, a by-product of the pressure brought on by a sense of helplessness and drift. More MPs declare they have no future here, no longer keen on propping up the misguided and extremist tendencies of those at the top. They talk enthusiastically of triggering by-elections, if only someone would offer them a reasonable salary.

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/309b5fb8-9cd6-11e8-9b62-17ec317258a6

Non paywall version:

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/96edmi/end_of_days_feel_in_a_westminster_crying_out_for/#ampf=undefined

End of days feel in a Westminster crying out for strong leadership

This reminds me of an old Yes Prime Minister episode. Hacker is talking about the voting public.
“I am their leader I must follow them”

I think that’s what Theresa May is trying to do. And as the country is so hideously divided she’s utterly rudderless. Trying to please everyone and pleading no one.

Yes, because Labour are playing the same dispicable game of putting party ahead of the greater good of the country as the Tories. Shame on them all.

Well said, Babooshka.

Babooshka, as an ex-Labour Party member and lifelong Labour voter, I agree entirely. I am horrified and disgusted by them.

Ex-BBC reporter critical of giving airtime to opposing views, even when they're crackpot or mendacious.

And many other things.

GAVIN ESLER: Why I’ve changed my mind on Brexit.

www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/gavin-esler-changed-my-mind-on-brexit-1-5644402

Here's the conclusion but it's all worth a read:

So what can we do to minimise the damage?

First, continue to expose the Brexit fantasies, accurately and fairly assessing whether any of them are ever likely to work. Second, compare the promises of the Brexit Bunch with what they actually do with their own lives and finances. Third, we need to follow the money – the Leave campaign money, the money behind the curiously-funded Leave-supporting “think tanks”, and other organisations. And fourth, we need to keep an eye on those speculators for whom a chaotic few months until the Brexcrement hits the fan could prove remarkably profitable.

One final thought. Hold journalists to account, sure. But most journalists – even ones you dislike – seek to debunk disinformation and expose lies. Instead of bashing decent journalists for the contortions demanded by the impossible ‘balancing’ act some are supposed to perform, let us encourage a re-think.

In the post-Trump post-Brexit world, how can we re-build trust unless we can point out lies when they occur? Broadcasters, especially, need to reflect a wide range of opinions. But confronting expert opinion and elected representatives on television with articulate know-nothing non-experts of dubious provenance financed by who-knows-what, is not ‘balance’. It is a disservice to our people, our country, and to facts, accuracy and fairness.

as an ex-Labour Party member and lifelong Labour voter, I agree entirely. I am horrified and disgusted by them. Fennel who can we possibly vote for now? I’m at a loss.

Hester I try to buy The New European every fortnight but often miss it. It’s terribly Leave-y round here and the local shops only seem to take a tiny handful of each issue. I decided to subscribe the other week and then found myself hesitating, thinking about all this ‘traitor’ garbage the Brexiters spout, and the possible rise of an ultra far right government and wondering, if I subscribe to this might I end up on some sort of traitor list? Will I get a knock on the door and find the men in black suits waiting for me?

Is this in any way a reasonable response to the current climate or just a sign that I’ve whipped myself up into a state of hysteria? Genuinely don’t know.

Gosh Singing it's terrible that you feel like that. What an indictment of the way this country is going.

I think one day people who've argued against Brexit will be vindicated. And there are so many dissenters. I'm sure the Govt don't feel on very solid ground to push too hard - they can't even hold their own cabinet together for long.

The New European seem to put most of their articles online (Facebook?) for those unable to buy it.

SingingBabooshka I wonder all the time how worried/not worried people were in 1930s Germany.

R North is excellent at posting dry facts about international treaties, trade, transport, agencies etc;
also some regular btl commentators on his blog are very well informed, sharing from their own areas of expertise.

However, he is not good at predicting what human beings - including politicians & business - will actually do.
He is not a "people person".

His predictions tend to be coloured by his long-running dislike of the EU / EEC / EC and his apocalyptic expectations for the UK & EU

• rightwing nationalists tend to believe in a disastrous collapse of society, because that society has left them behind and they see their fundamental core beliefs / identity being rejected by most of the under-45s, not just the very young.

P North posts fewer facts and far more open prejudices, using some disgusting words like "mong" and "detritus" about fellow human beings.
His blog has hardly any btl comments as he concentrates on Twitter
However, he sometimes tweets silly, juvenile, insulting "humour" and now - after an outrageous non-joke about paedophilia - faces being sued by a prominent Remainer.
So unnecessary.

Hester I’m sure you’re right re future vindication. I know we’re on the right side of history long-term but I do think, shorter term, the country is on the brink of something very nasty, not just Brexit itself, how things play out socially and culturally, as well as
politically. It feels like we’re teetering on the edge of an abyss and nobody in a position of power has the will to try to pull us back.

I did subscribe yesterday to TNE by the way, but I did have a genuine moment of doubt. I need to get a grip!