Westminstenders: In the Brexit Lane

[RedToothBrush]

I honestly couldn't think of a better starter to the thread than simply just this tweet

Robert Peston @ peston
We’ve got an official opposition tearing itself apart over antisemitism, the founder of the EDL running rings around the judiciary and a government negotiating a Brexit plan that its own MPs and ministers tell me is dead. When will we pull ourselves together, as a nation?

But don't worry, your blue passport will get you an extra special long wait at passport control. And no deal could lead to continued freedom of movement anyway. Something for everyone in there.

I suspect that the government will end up ditching the DUP and going for a sea border

They would, but they have no majority in the HoC for such a deal. Another unforeseen side effect of last General Election. Tories only in power because of DUP. Lose DUP, lose majority, end of government, another GE - Hurrah ...

They would, but they have no majority in the HoC for such a deal

What about all those Brexit bills that went through, with the Henry VIII powers ?

Surely now all May has to do is say "this is how it will be" and that's how it will be ?

Otherwise it might start to look like the past 8+ months have been a complete waste of time ...

I don't know the maths, but if MPs believe that the choices are sea border or no deal, won't enough of them compromise on the sea border?

I don't know the maths, but if MPs believe that the choices are sea border or no deal, won't enough of them compromise on the sea border?

But do they get a vote at all ?

The whole point of the frenetic past few months was to give the Government the powers they need for Brexit (again ). Not parliament. The Government. Now the government has those powers, it can wave 2 fingers to parliament and pretty much do what it wants.

And if the government doesn't have those powers, then what the fuck has the past year been about in parliament ? Choosing the fucking curtains ?

Not sure about Henry VIII powers. But if DUP vote against govt in a vote of confidence then govt loses (no majority) and GE?

Not sure about Henry VIII powers. But if DUP vote against govt in a vote of confidence then govt loses (no majority) and GE?

Tad more complicated, thanks to the FTPA. I'm pretty certain Labour would also need to vote against the government to get the majority needed for a GE (as they did last year). The whole point of the FTPA was to prevent governments gaming the system by calling elections when it's advantageous (which is how the Tories managed 3 in a row).

To be fair, we were warned at the time (and I make no apologies for noting that I was less than convinced by the warnings at the time, and admit now that they were incredibly prescient. Unlike some people ....) that a danger of the FTPA was we could get stuck with a lame duck government. In fact in hindsight it seems the warnings were woefully understated. No one could have imagined being stuck with this shower of shit so quickly.

Indeed FTPA does make things complicated. But if govt loses majority (no DUP) and labour gets its shit together (ever hopeful) then it could happen. We have seen crazier things in the last few years ...

But if govt loses majority (no DUP) and labour gets its shit together (ever hopeful) then it could happen.

Everywhere you look, you see dilemmas.

It was bad enough that some labour MPs saw fit to collude with the Tories to push Theresa Mays Brexit through. I'm not sure that they should be helping the Tories out by voting for a GE with them. The Tories need to own this mess, and much like Nazi Germany need to be unconditionally crushed for at least two generations. An early GE would let them off the hook.

It's the Tories that bound themselves to Brexit. It's the Tories that need to be held to account for Brexit failing.

That's why I'm a little ambivalent about a 2nd vote. (Quite aside from we have no idea what options it might allow ....). If there were one, and it resulted in Brexit being cancelled in some form, we'd only see the Tory bastards regrouping and repeating the past 2 years a little way down the line.

#bbcswitchoff trending on twitter now.

But minority Governments do carry on, at least for a while. The Tories could ditch the DUP and still count on the four Labour MPs who now vote with them as a matter of course, e.g. Field, Hoey and the two other unremarkable ones who may as well be nameless. They only need a few abstentions from the other parties to squeak through.

Don't forget the government will be without one DUP vote anyway in the autumn whilst Paisley Jnr is suspended...

There is a minority Government in ROI at the moment. Works under a confidence and supply agreement with the main opposition party. Has been going well for a while now.

It can be done successfully, but I doubt the will is there in UK for something like this outside DUP. Tories rule. And that is that.

The 2007 Holyrood elections resulted in a minority SNP Scottish Government which governed successfully depending on your perspective for the whole term. Indeed, at the next election they "broke" the d'Hondt system and succeeding in winning an overall majority which was never supposed to happen in the Scottish Parliament .

In the 2016 elections, the d'Hondt system went back to working properly and the SNP are again governing as a minority government, albeit this time (unlike 2007) in a majority Indy supporting parliament.

A Conservative minority government, presuming it could survive for any length of time, would be utterly dependent on the votes of the ERG. A no deal Brexit would become almost an inevitability.

Would the ERG really vote to bring down their iwn fovernment and let Corbyn try to form a minority one ?
It would be very different if the Official Opposition were UKIP, but it isn't

It's difficult enough for moderate Tories to vote against their own government, knowing they risk letting Corbyn be PM.
For the DUP, Corbyn PM would be their worst nightmare with his open support for a united Ireland
Not much better for the ERG.

Interesting spin from MHRA on possible relationship if transition period agreed. They almost seem to be advising the transition period is a fait accompli. All the while some gov't Ministers are saying no deal is fine. In which case no 'implementation' period.

www.gov.uk/guidance/technical-information-on-what-the-implementation-period-means-for-the-life-science-sector

In their 'Making a success of Brexit' section...

Whatever the outcome of the negotiation we will continue to collaborate with all involved to deliver the current speed of authorisations, access to new and innovative medicines and devices and to continue to ensure the quality, safety and efficacy of all medicines and devices, to safeguard an uninterrupted level of public health protection.

Wow! That is some statement. They practically guarantee nothing will change.

Customers, partners and stakeholders approaching MHRA continue to have access to our internationally recognised expertise and we maintain the highest quality services. For further information, please get in touch with your usual contact points in the Agency.

The presence of the EMA has built up the MHRA and attracted R&D to the UK. This effect will now happen in the Netherlands instead.

Of course, expert MHRA staff may be poached by EU27 regulators.

I’m reading the MHRA statement as a commitment to battling adversity and doing everything they can to mitigate the effects of whatever shitshow ensues.

Today programme (which officially I boycott but sometimes turn on by accident) this morning had an great interview with Rashida Tlaib, the Muslim Democrat Congressional candidate. She absolutely dismantled Boris Johnson and his horrible comments "we're not in high school any more". Somewhere between 07:15 and 07:45 as far as I remember.

I posted this on the Brexit "short" thread:
it helps us understand why no deal has been pushed so hard
and why the Tory party has moved away from being the "Party of Business" to become the " Party of Spivs" instead

Party donations buy support for a policy that will bring huge windfall profits
.. at the expense of the UK

New Rich List reveals that 12 of the 21 richest UK Hedge Fund Managers are Tory Donors

https://evolvepolitics.com/new-rich-list-reveals-that-12-of-the-21-richest-uk-hedge-fund-managers-are-tory-donors/

Like this guy, hoping for windfalls as British firms - and Sterling - suffer from Brexit, but some foreign firms prosper...

Brexiteer Odey bets £500m AGAINST British businesses: Rees-Mogg backer hopes to gain from ‘short’ stakes in shares he believes will fall...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/investing/article-5824697/Brexiteer-Odey-bets-500m-AGAINST-British-businesses.html

His firm Odey Asset Management has taken out more than £500 million ‘short’ positions
– which are essentially a gamble that a share price will fall –
on some of Britain’s biggest firms, implying that he expects a poor performance from them.
...
Odey’s apparent lack of confidence in flagship British firms stands in marked contrast to his fund’s investments in other countries, including France, Germany and the US, where he is mainly backing shares to rise.
...
He is a longstanding supporter of fellow Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg, funding the Conservative MP’s Election campaign in 2015.
In 2007, he also helped Rees-Mogg set up an investment firm of his own, Somerset Capital Management,
which has virtually no investments in the UK, but large holdings in Russia.

In addition to its short positions against British shares, Odey Asset Management has taken a £150 million bet against the value of Government bonds.

Crispin Odey is a hedge-fund billionaire and Brexit backer who made £220m on the night of the referendum.

He has been very active lately in criticism of May and any kind of deal.
He has called for her to go.

BigChocFrenzy Interesting that that feature is in the Mail. No outright condemnation but it’s implicit. Wonder if will get pulled?

Given that some Brexiters in the government believe in leaving because it's the 'will of the people', what would they start to think now there are opinion polls showing a swing against it? (And maybe a small majority for remaining...)
Would they feel on dodgy electoral ground carrying out a change that no longer has majority favour?

Would the ERG really vote to bring down their iwn fovernment and let Corbyn try to form a minority one ?

Would it come to that? All past evidence suggests that May will give in to ERG demands rather than risk losing power.

Bear in mind as well that the FTPA did away with implied votes of confidence. The ERG could, if they wanted to, block any and every piece of government legislation put before them, and unless a formal vote of no confidence is tabled and passed the government still has to limp on (and even if a vote of no confidence is passed they get two weeks to try to stitch together a deal before an election has to be called).

www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2018/08/10/news/concerns-raised-about-border-stop-and-search-zone-1404017/

Apologies if this has already been shared - I’m abroad and behind on the thread. It would be absolutely incendiary.