Westminstenders: In the Brexit Lane

[RedToothBrush]

I honestly couldn't think of a better starter to the thread than simply just this tweet

Robert Peston @ peston
We’ve got an official opposition tearing itself apart over antisemitism, the founder of the EDL running rings around the judiciary and a government negotiating a Brexit plan that its own MPs and ministers tell me is dead. When will we pull ourselves together, as a nation?

But don't worry, your blue passport will get you an extra special long wait at passport control. And no deal could lead to continued freedom of movement anyway. Something for everyone in there.

The banks have been forced to have a greater cushion to protect themselves incase of a crash.

Such a crash in housing probably wouldn't manifest itself suddenly but over a period of time, and banks would just tighten up on who they lend to.

I am NOT saying that it would be good for the economy btw. What I am saying is there are certain groups of individuals who are better placed to withstand and then benefit from a massive hit to the economy.

And those groups are much more likely to be Tory Party members. They are much likely to be more white men. They are much more likely to be older. They are much more likely to be landed or own property outright.

They are people who are not necessarily generating money but instead are acculumating it from simply buying at the right time.

These are people who WANT the economy to head south so they can profit from it.

Everyone else suffers because of it. But there will be a small pool of people who do ok or actually profit.

The idea that it will be a disaster for everyone is wrong.

This is so true. Think about the late 20s and 1930s. Not everyone was on a march from Jarrow about unemployment. Think of the 1930s ribbon development of semi-detached houses and ask who bought them? One set of my GPs for one house (for cash, DGM had inherited a bit of money). Meanwhile on the other side of the family, there was only one GP left to bring up the family after an early death had plunged them into poverty.

Would Grieve leave? Why doesn't he resign the Tory whip now? He could still vote with them on the policies that he agrees with, but would be able to vote with his conscience otherwise. The same would go for Woollaston and Soubry.

FWIW, I'm not one of them, even though the cards might well fall more in our favour than most. Its just not worth the misery it will cause.

They are people who are not necessarily generating money but instead are acculumating it from simply buying at the right time.

Bear in mind that these people are mostly elderly and the prospect of Care Home fees will loom for them. They need to transfer their property at the right time, and even then I think if it looks as though they have done it just to avoid care home fees, they might be asked to pay up anyway. That's why May's "demetia tax" fell flat. Even though there is a desperate need to sort out Social care.

This of course, will hit the Tories on more moderate incomes, not the likes of Cameron, Johnson, May herself.

Could be famous last words and I've almost certainly jinxed it now, but Brexit probably won't be that bad for us.

DH's job in academia, whilst nothing is ever 100%, is very secure (as in there are many many levels of people who would be made redundant before it gets as far as him). My job is fixed-term, which at least means that it is guaranteed until the end of the contract in several years' time as the funds are allocated and can't be used for anything else. Our household income is well above average, we have savings, mortgage is on a long fix, and we have a good amount of equity in our house - this means we will be able to weather increases in cost of living or interest rates for quite a long time. None of us, touch wood, are in need of regular medical treatment.

I am saying all this, not being smug or boasty, but because I just want to clarify that I am against Brexit not for selfish reasons but because I believe it is a terrible idea that will (already has!) divide our society in rage and recrimination for generations, wreck our national reputation and influence on the world stage, cost the country more than we could ever hope to gain, and most severely affect the poorest and most vulnerable people.

Elements, I suspect if you are in the top 20% for income, you'll probably be fairly ok provided you aren't mortgage up to the hilt.

Everyone else is fucked.

Why would I want to benefit at the expense of my friends and family? We wouldn't have enough to bail them out as we will have to do more to protect our future in terms of pension and health care and for DS's education.

Why would I want to benefit at the expense of my friends and family?

Agree 100%. And also society at large.

The housing market does need a massive correction though. I have several young, employed graduates in my extended family who can't afford to buy or even rent their own places, and remain with their parents.
Not sure Brexit is the desirable way to fix this market though, due to its likely concomitant consequences. Job loss, salary depression, rising prices eating up any potential savings, etc.

Savills are saying Brexit is depressing their business:

'Brexit isn't helping!' Profits dive 18% at Savills

Residential transactions fell 7% in London, and 10% outside the capital, in the six months to 30 June

However Savills deal with the high end of the estate agent market and will probably ultimately be ok.

www.theguardian.com/business/2018/aug/09/brexit-isnt-helping-profits-dive-18-at-savills

I'm in a similar position, secure jobs, relatively small mortgage, loads of equity in the house, kids studying for jobs in secure professions.

But I don't want to live in a country where the poor and dispossessed are abandoned. I don't want to live in a country where health care is rationed.

This isn't about me it's about the communities that are going to get screwed over, again.

This isn't about me it's about the communities that are going to get screwed over, again.

Ones that voted for Brexit. If you are older, savings, equity etc and voted remain count yourself lucky.

People in their 20's and 30's starting out in careers, families with little savings and equity will be hit also. I see today that rents are expected to rise over the next 5 years. Another sucker punch for millenials.

Similar position here regarding a financial cushion.

Dh’s job is pretty secure, mine less so. We have lots of equity in the house though and we overpay the mortgage by £600 a month.

The kids are young, eldest is 7. I was hoping the Brexit fallout would be done and dusted with by the time she’s an adult. But according to Rees Mogg it could take 50 years

I see today that rents are expected to rise over the next 5 years

Surely not. I though spending has overtaken income? Plus there’s gas price rises and food inflation - how the hell can their be rent increases with all that going on?

I suspect if you are in the top 20% for income, you'll probably be fairly ok provided you aren't mortgage up to the hilt.

Everyone else is fucked.

This of course, will hit the Tories on more moderate incomes, not the likes of Cameron, Johnson, May herself.

A tiny cabal of ultra-wealthy Tories has manipulated this situation for their own betterment and to ensure we are out of the EU before the new laws around tax havens can stunt their personal profiteering. The gullible and politically naive (trying to be kind and not use words like ‘ignorant’) have been manipulated into voting for something which will be a disaster for the nation generally and for all but a few of those voters personally.

And, to all intents and purposes, outside of the reassuring echo chambers like this thread, it’s like it’s not even happening. In real life, aside from conversations with close friends (more echo chambers) I’m not hearing any of this. Even people like my uncle, a Remainer, who would consider himself well-informed but, only through the mainstream media, has an ‘it’ll be shit for a while but we’ll be ok in the end’ attitude.

Do we need to be the next politicians like all the women standing in the US as a reaction to Trump?

Yes.

Do we need to be the next politicians like all the women standing in the US as a reaction to Trump?

Obama thinks that more women should get involved in politics:

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.elle.com/culture/career-politics/amp22334092/barack-obama-south-africa-town-hall-men-getting-on-nerves/

Anything that reduces the influence of the existing testosterone fuelled Muppets is a good Idea.

Thing is we need "average" women in politics. Not the exceptional few who manage to advance by effectively becoming "female men". After all, in hindsight I suspect it could be argued that Thatchers premiership actually set back female emancipation.

Yet another sign that nothing has really changed ... average men manage to do a hell of a lot better than average women.

There's also that imbalance ... a man without children is unremarkable. A woman without children ... well there has to be something wrong there ? (It's the only concession I will make to feeling sorry for Theresa May. And I also note it was a woman that managed to make her childlessness an issue ....)

Our negotiations on our future relationship have reached an impasse,” May told Tory party members in a letter on Wednesday, published on the ConservativeHome website.

She said the two options on offer from the EU - a standard free-trade deal or membership of the customs union plus an extended version of the European Economic Area - are “not acceptable to me, or to the United Kingdom.

Of course these are two perfectly good options, and of course May just wants to cherry pick. But she also wants an end to the noise about the border. This is a crucial matter that has not gone away no matter how earnestly the Tories may want it to, and I suspect they are most surprised that the EU hasn't thrown Ireland under the bus.

I suspect TM and the Tories believe that Ireland is preventing the EU from allowing cherry picking, so all this talk of crashing out without a deal is aimed at the Irish government in hopes that it will blink and abandon the GFA.

I suspect they are most surprised that the EU hasn't thrown Ireland under the bus.

It's hard to understand something that is utterly different to what you'd do yourself.

If a certain treatment is not available in your country, you can arrange to get treated abroad in another EU/EEA country and Switzerland. An RTE journalist did this and made a programme about it.

europa.eu/youreurope/citizens/health/planned-healthcare/right-to-treatment/index_en.htm

This is his programme.
netpatientnetwork.ie/index.php/other-resources/

This is a bit about the scheme from the Irish HSE.
www.hse.ie/eng/services/list/1/schemes/treatmentabroad/

Someone mentioned the NHS. I didn't just throw it out there for no reason. If the UK stays in the EEA it may still apply.

Interesting quote from Tommie Gorman's programme. The Swedish doctor said 'Medicine and money. Oil and water, they don't mix. We're here to get you right'.

The E112 form. At around 26 minutes, he explains how to go about it in his programme.

I suspect that the government will end up ditching the DUP and going for a sea border.

I suspect that the government will end up ditching the DUP and going for a sea border.

Can they do that ? Don't they need the DUP votes ?