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Brexit

Westminstenders: In the Brexit Lane

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 02/08/2018 09:25

I honestly couldn't think of a better starter to the thread than simply just this tweet

Robert Peston @ peston
We’ve got an official opposition tearing itself apart over antisemitism, the founder of the EDL running rings around the judiciary and a government negotiating a Brexit plan that its own MPs and ministers tell me is dead. When will we pull ourselves together, as a nation?

But don't worry, your blue passport will get you an extra special long wait at passport control. And no deal could lead to continued freedom of movement anyway. Something for everyone in there.

OP posts:
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KennDodd · 08/08/2018 23:06

They see no indications the UK govt will back down

I fear that if the gov do try to back down at the 11th hour and stay in cu&sm the EU will have had enough of us and boot us out and cut their losses. One thing (amongst many) that people don't seem to get is that its just not up to us anymore, it's up to the EU.

SingingBabooshkaBadly · 08/08/2018 23:41

MyBrexitUnicorn

Perhaps worth pointing out to your husband’s cousin that Churchill also said this:

We must build a kind of United States of Europe.

In this way only will hundreds of millions of toilers be able to regain the simple joys and hopes which make life worth living.

SingingBabooshkaBadly · 08/08/2018 23:50

She said the two options on offer from the EU -
a standard free-trade deal
or membership of the customs union plus an extended version of the European Economic Area -
are “not acceptable to me, or to the United Kingdom"

Dear god. Have not been following this at all this evening (DH requested a brexit-free night).

I think until now I’ve allowed myself to believe that they couldn’t possibly go through with it. This really does look like it’s happening. It’s a nation committing economic suicide. I’m truly terrified.

Thomasinaa · 09/08/2018 00:27

Why is there a holiday thread going on, with discussion of holidaying in Malta next May half term? I've pointed out that there may be no flights, but they just witter on regardless.

Thomasinaa · 09/08/2018 00:29

I don't understand the flights thing. Why do people talk about the possibility of a short period of no flights, when the detail seems to be that it would take a really long time to sort out everything that needs to be done to get to the stage where the UK's planes are allowed to fly?

Peregrina · 09/08/2018 01:19

Would crashing out destroy the Tories? If Tory home/Torygraph comments are a true representation, I think the answer is No, Corbyn/Labour/LibDems/UncleTomCobbleyParty would be the ones who would always be held to be worse, so they would probably gain votes. The Leavers would conveniently forget that they didn't vote for ration cards or no flights or to destroy industry.

Thomasinaa · 09/08/2018 01:29

I agree that the predictions that a no deal would destroy the Tory party for 50 years or whatever are very optimistic. People will vote based on who the then politicians are. The Tories will try to pin it all on TM I suppose.

OlennasWimple · 09/08/2018 01:58

This story helps illustrate why TM still has the support of the party faithful. Kicking out these reprehensible men, along with Abu Qatada (but not extraditing McKinnon) will do her Tory credentials no harm at all

OlennasWimple · 09/08/2018 01:59

This is one of those stories that is surely an "only in Britain" story Grin

SacrebleuLondres · 09/08/2018 06:27

@Thomasinaa

Re flights.

I think it's because we are a large economy and we think the rules of the game don't apply. We can fly planes without treaties and enjoy frictionless trade under WTO.

Next we'll be able to grow all our food.

lonelyplanetmum · 09/08/2018 07:30

Here's another only in Britain story...

www.theguardian.com/books/2018/aug/08/visas-refused-for-a-dozen-authors-invited-to-book-festival

Those articulate, erudite authors. I bet they've written books solely for the purpose of sneaking into this glorious empire leading nation. They all clearly plan to leave their homes, families and lives so they can abscond here and work as illegal migrants. Some of them even had too much money to be allowed to visit! Outrageous -they may have spent it here. We will become world leaders in the prevention of tourism. World leaders in the prevention of authors. We have a huge problem with waves of authors flooding our shores.

What have we become? I'm so very ashamed. We need a new politics to rise but from where and when.

CaptainBrickbeard · 09/08/2018 07:49

So...if it’s no Deal at the end of March and we crash out. We are looking at the short term chaos: food and fuel shortages, grounded flights etc. Hopefully it doesn’t turn to unrest and violence.

What do you all foresee after that? When my fixed term on the mortgage runs out in December 2019, should I be anticipating a massive interest rate hike?

Do we think the NHS will be sold off to American investors quietly over a few years? So we will be looking at paying health insurance in the near future (for a much worse service!)?

Is there a way we can estimate how Brexit-proof we are in our particular circumstances? I want to start trying to figure out what to expect beyond the initial crisis, beyond next year’s summer holiday and into the future.

I’m trying to move past my horror and disbelief that a government would do this willingly and start thinking about what the future will actually be like.

And it might not even destroy the Tories - so they could stay in power and have total freedom to impose a hard-right austerity government on us all. Meanwhile, Labour...are just letting it all happen.

Cherrypi · 09/08/2018 07:53

Do we need to be the next politicians like all the women standing in the US as a reaction to Trump? I saw another Churchill meme shared on Facebook. I wonder who’s funding that.

TatianaLarina · 09/08/2018 07:54

For my money - I think a no deal will lead to implosion within the Tories. It’s already riven, I think the resultant crisis and the fallout will lead to a splintering.

The same may well happen to Labour. Brexit disaster will lead ultimately to a Labour government (if it doesn’t lead to a national government) and the fault lines there are every bit as deep and bitter as the Tories.

I would be surprised if a political socio-economic crisis of this magnitude does not lead to the painful reforming of the political landscape.

In the long run everyone associated with Leave will be discredited and the vestiges of Tory and Labour will have to expunge all trace of them to survive.

TatianaLarina · 09/08/2018 07:58

In fact to be more precise I think a catastrophe will lead to an implosion in British politics generally, and we may not have to wait for an election for Labour to implode too.

TatianaLarina · 09/08/2018 08:06

May letter aims to rally grassroots Tories to Chequers Brexit plan

In the words of John Clees ‘what’s the point?’. What is the point of a 70 grand letter to convince Tory activists of a deal that’s dead in the water?

SacrebleuLondres · 09/08/2018 08:07

The frightening aspect to these discussions is a lack of faith in UK democracy. A functioning democratic system would not lead to this type of discourse

Mrsr8 · 09/08/2018 08:08

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Mrsr8 · 09/08/2018 08:09

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BigChocFrenzy · 09/08/2018 08:17

Historically, post-WW2, mortgages rates have averaged around 7%
For various structural reasons, interest rates globally have been unusually low for years and look like staying that way

I remember my mortgage going up to 10% a couple of times, during economic squeezes and really shooting up to 15% for some months, to stop Sterling free-falling after the UK crashed out of the ERM.
There were many repossessions, with negative equity and resulting longterm debt

This time, although the pound would probably plummet again if markets become more sure of no-deal,
I expect (Mark Carney (Bank of England) to use all possible other levers, e.g. QE / printing money

  • because an increase of more than about 4% could finish businesses already reeling from Brexit, not just mortgage-holders.

So, check if you could be over-extended after Brexit and / or if your income could drop, e.g. from lower rents if you are an LL
Tenants might benefit - if they keep their job with full pay.
Not the time to buy property, unless it is to be your forever or very longterm home

Obviously avoid any new / increased loans without a long fixed rate;
especially avoid loans for consumer goods, including holidays - even a zero interest card could change abruptly, or you might need to keep the card as a reserve to cover a temporary shortfall.

Try to build up savings to tide you over possible increased expenses - groceries too - for maybe 6 months
Note: that's not 6 months income, it's 6 months extra expense

BigChocFrenzy · 09/08/2018 08:18

Definitely apply for any additional passports you can - there may be a rush & more delays later

RedToothBrush · 09/08/2018 08:19

Just to point out that provided we can avoid riots and food shortages and get flights running, even with a severe economic shock we personally will probably be better off in a hard brexit cos of a collapse in the housing market.

Many people in the Tory party itself are also likely to be in this position.

Remember they don't give a shit about other people and how this might come at the expense of the poorest.

Many will be people who have got out of business (due to their age) and have free capital to invest, often with it currently off shore.

The idea that it will be a disaster for everyone is wrong. Those who will do just nicely out of it are disproportionately Tory Party members (note not voters). There is also opportunity to exploit the situation for political gain for a hard right agenda.

I do however find it reassuring that one nation tories like grieve are saying they will leave the party should johnson become leader.

OP posts:
HesterThrale · 09/08/2018 08:26

Tatiana For my money - I think a no deal will lead to implosion within the Tories. It’s already riven, I think the resultant crisis and the fallout will lead to a splintering.

I hope you're right. It needs to come to a head and decent Tories find their courage.

Sarah Wollaston is already supporting a peoples' vote.

mobile.twitter.com/sarahwollaston/status/1027291082705592330

SacrebleuLondres · 09/08/2018 08:28

@RedToothBrush

A collapse of the housing market would cause banks to suffer. Why would that be good for the economy?

Mrsr8 · 09/08/2018 08:39

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.