Westminstenders: In the Brexit Lane

[RedToothBrush]

I honestly couldn't think of a better starter to the thread than simply just this tweet

Robert Peston @ peston
We’ve got an official opposition tearing itself apart over antisemitism, the founder of the EDL running rings around the judiciary and a government negotiating a Brexit plan that its own MPs and ministers tell me is dead. When will we pull ourselves together, as a nation?

But don't worry, your blue passport will get you an extra special long wait at passport control. And no deal could lead to continued freedom of movement anyway. Something for everyone in there.

Borntobequiet - would you mind if I C&P your post on dyslexia to a Libre document of mine?

Hi math - no problem. It was a bit off the cuff though, and I realise I could have expanded on some points (though I doubt anyone would have thanked me). But feel free.

We did calculus for O level with the NUJMB. DH, with the Oxford board, didn't. I knew that I could put the figures into the equations and turn the handle to crank out the answers and get a page of ticks, but I also knew that I had no real understanding of what I was doing. None the less, I passed O level.

We also did calculus, matrices etc with the WJEC. Log books anyone?

Borntobequiet, thanks for your post on dyslexia. You explained very well what I totally failed to articulate.

Log books Oh yes. One thing that critics of using calculators seem unable to grasp is that they are a tool, as were log books, or slide rules.

This isn’t maths related but I had to share this. Dh’s least bright cousin posted this on her Facebook page. It’s taking every fiber of my being not to reply.

ds wouldn't have been able to "pass" the early assessment in primary as he was a very late reader (only "got" it at age 6.5 - but went on to get a B for English at Higher)

Fun fact - the research on which the English "synthetic phonics at age 4" curriculum was based was carried out in environments with no setting in the US on children aged 5, who would have been just 'getting' reading around age 6-7. Many of these children would have eventually got into Harvard, Yale, etc.

Pilots in Clackmannanshire and West Dunbartonshire showed promising results but functional illiteracy remains a problem among primary schoolchildren in Scotland.

www.theguardian.com/education/2010/jan/19/phonics-child-literacy
How to get it wrong.

Adoption of the synthetic phonics concept was a very illuminating example of policy making without regard for anything but the bits of research that bolstered an emotionally-driven and opinion that had already been formed, with the hope of appealing to a certain target voting demographic (i.e. the people who feel teachers are wasting children's time and taxpayers' money in school and that the government should bring back caning).

_ Theresa May Planning Cabinet Summit on No-Deal Brexit_

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-08/u-k-s-may-is-said-to-plan-cabinet-summit-on-no-deal-brexit

May is planning a top-level meeting of her cabinet ministers early in September specifically to discuss how to ready the U.K. for a no-deal Brexit, according to people familiar with the matter.
...
“Our negotiations on our future relationship have reached an impasse,” May told Tory party members in a letter on Wednesday, published on the ConservativeHome website.
She said the two options on offer from the EU -
a standard free-trade deal
or membership of the customs union plus an extended version of the European Economic Area -
are “not acceptable to me, or to the United Kingdom.”

< those are 2 perfectly good options. The FTA itself has different options e.g. like Canada, or like Ukraine
May just wants cherries and the EU said from day 1 they are not on the menu >

@BigChocFrenzy

How do you think this will play out?

(10 days ago, but no improvvement since, just more time wasted )

U.K. Ministers Fear Bloody Last Chapter in May's Brexit Thriller

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-28/u-k-ministers-fear-bloody-last-chapter-of-may-s-brexit-thriller

...in private, ministers and senior officials in May’s team are terrified that the negotiations will fail.

That would mean the U.K. crashing out of the EU with no deal, disrupting trade, creating chaos in financial markets, blocking manufacturers’ supply chains and potentially causing shortages of food and medical supplies.

It could be an economic and political crisis unparalleled in the U.K. since World War II.
...
“I have near zero optimism because I think it is going to be very messy,”
said one senior minister, speaking on condition of anonymity because the matter is so sensitive.
The prospects of getting an agreement are slim, the minister said.

“If we crash out without a deal, it’s going to be a historic catastrophe.”

sacrebleu The UK govt seem to have no real policy except DD's stupid old idea that the EU will blink at the 59th minute and suddenly concedes to all the UK red lines

That would mean the EU helping the UK avoid economic meltdown by voluntarily going into economic & political meltdown itself.

Not going to happen.

Irish & other EU commentators - plus those few British analysts, e.g. R North, who actually understand how the EU works and also international trade, transport, agencies etc - are desperately worried.
They see no indications the UK govt will back down;
so they expect a catastrophe for the UK and some disruption for the EU, major for ireland.

imo, there is still a little hope that May could blink in early 2019 and U-turn, especially if sufficient Tory MPs pressure her to do so.

Maybe if sufficient firms announce job losses in December - February and / or the markets take fright and Sterling goes into freefall.
However, I expect those events to really become significant after a no deal Brexit, not before.

So, probably Leavers will continue to chant la,la,la, Project Fear ... until it becomes Project Horrible Reality

"Our negotiations on our future relationship have reached an impasse,” May told Tory party members in a letter on Wednesday, published on the ConservativeHome website

She said the two options on offer from the EU -
a standard free-trade deal
or membership of the customs union plus an extended version of the European Economic Area -
are “not acceptable to me, or to the United Kingdom"

May has painted herself into a corner with her red lines. If she rejects the two options on the table (or the obvious third option which is to Remain) then she only has one option left - to state that the UK is crashing out of the EU and consequently declare an immediate State of Emergency.

Which would mean compulsory citizen registration and ID cards (as in 1939, a prerequisite for conscription and food rationing); rationing of food, fuel and medicine; a run on the banks; a mass exodus of EU citizens; the NHS becoming an Emergency Service only; conscription; civil unrest in cities and on the Irish border and much more. Surely nobody in their right mind would put the UK in this situation - unless the Brexit conspirators' Plan B is to let all this happen and then hope that the US Cavalry ride to the UK's rescue as in 1917 and 1941

The US cavalry demanded a heavy price in each case.
We've no more empire or exclusive trade routes to concede to them
Only the UK itself

So, what will they demand this time ?
imo, massive chunks of the NHS,
TTIP+
and - the US Trade Secretary stated this as a prerequisite for any FTA - the right to flood the UK market with chlorine chicken, hormone beef, HFCS and all their other Frankenfoods.

I am far more pessimistic about the UK's future atm than I was after hearing the ref result

The govt's handling of Brexit negotiations, its sheer ignorance and delusional arrogance, far exceed my worst fears then

Surely nobody in their right mind would put the UK in this situation

Not in their right mind, perhaps, but I get the impression that some Leavers would rather enjoy just such a national emergency. Blitz spirit or some such rot.

Terrifying comments on conservativehome under the post about that letter havana. Basically 'full steam ahead, rahrahrah' for WTO rules. Fucking hell. We're screwed.

And I note that the deal for 'services' (ie what the UK economy is built on these days) is effectively relegated to 'er, yeah, ummm, we'll sort something, probably'. Jesus.

Dogwhistles to xenophobia pay off, in Tory party circles:

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/08/boris-johnsons-burqa-comments-bolster-his-grassroots-conservative-support

Boris Johnson’s support among grassroots Conservatives, already resurgent in the wake of his resignation over Brexit, appears to have been bolstered further by his claim that Muslim women in burqas resemble letterboxes and bank robbers.

Tory activists have claimed that party members admire the former foreign secretary’s “straight talking” on the controversial issue and

Women as objects
Plus ca change ...

Mathanxiety - (shortened version after phone shut down on me ) ds' school was brilliant with him and didn't put any pressure on him - moving him down reading groups until he he was ready, 2.5 years later, to move back up. That's why he did so well in English (and Maths ) later - top sets for both at secondary.

The school was very pragmatic about the teaching techniques it used (phonics, synthetic phonics, whole word teaching) because, as it said () all children were different! It also had to deal with the 60% of the pupils who started school with English as an Additional Language - which it coped with brilliantly and enriched the learning experience, not just of language and increased understanding of other cultures and religions - to bring it back to Brexit ). Ds gets very annoyed at racism (although he has a blind spot about the Roma )

so they expect a catastrophe for the UK

I do think sometimes we deserve everything that's coming. I follow Vote Leave on Facebook both this and what I hear in real life have really opened my eyes to the level of racism in the UK. We have allowed them to call the shots, Brexit will punish us for this so hopefully we will learn a well deserved lesson. Shame my children will be paying the price.

If the government really does push us over the edge into catastrophe, wouldn’t that destroy the Tories’ chances of election for a long time? Surely they want to preserve themselves at least? Or do they think backing down would destroy them anyway?

I am genuinely afraid of what will be happening this time next year.

I think the Tories are damed if they do damed if they don't.

I saw on tv a few days ago some Tory party activists outraged at the gov handling of Brexit, in that it wasn't all done and dusted already. She said she thought they just had to sign a form then we'd be out, worse, it seemed she still thought that's all we need to do. This was somebody who was politically engaged ffs. I blame fucking thick as shit leave voters who are still spouting shit.

The sharing of private fears of catastrophe is intended to be promulgated to smooth the way for capitulation.

The Tories face extinction if we crash out with no deal.

I’m hoping sanity will prevail in a humiliating climb down, but there’s no saying what the nutters will do.

If gov did push the self destruct button, could politicians be guilty of criminal activity? I'm thinking about the lies they told the public about brexit and misconduct in public office?