Westminstenders: In the Brexit Lane

[RedToothBrush]

I honestly couldn't think of a better starter to the thread than simply just this tweet

Robert Peston @ peston
We’ve got an official opposition tearing itself apart over antisemitism, the founder of the EDL running rings around the judiciary and a government negotiating a Brexit plan that its own MPs and ministers tell me is dead. When will we pull ourselves together, as a nation?

But don't worry, your blue passport will get you an extra special long wait at passport control. And no deal could lead to continued freedom of movement anyway. Something for everyone in there.

but I suspect he also didn't fully understand the risk but a PM shouldn't take unnecessary actions for party politics from a position of ignorance.

I suspect that old Etonian overconfidence/pig-headedness is why he didn't realise that he was ignorant. After all he was the one who wanted to be PM because he thought he would be good at it. The only real success he could claim as PM was getting a surprise win in the 2015 election.

May - yes, also pig-headed but born out of a very narrow S England Tory twinset and pearls type of outlook that meant she just didn't have enough breadth of vision to realise what she was getting into.

Just getting back up to speed after holiday.Not sure if the BDO output index has been posted? Looking at services and the remaining 10% of manufacturing.

"Taken together the two readings show UK economic output at its lowest level in six years, "
"The last time that services output shrank, according to BDO, was in February 2010 in the aftermath of the global financial crisis."

What always mystifies me is that if this deluded empire strikes back (?) decision was the right one then already there would be string indicators of investment and growth etc. There just isn't.

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-paralysis-grips-economy-as-services-sector-goes-into-reverse-mjvltkf2z?shareToken=76c39448010abc0ef18ce4a4a0dae29b

The only real success he could claim as PM was getting a surprise win

A surprise to himself as much as anyone. Was he counting on another coalition so that he could blame the Lib Dem’s for blocking a referendum?

What always mystifies me is that if this deluded empire strikes back (?) decision was the right one then already there would be string indicators of investment and growth etc. There just isn't.

Surely May needs to find the guts to stand up and say ‘This isn’t working. This is not what people voted for. They didn't Vote to destroy our economy. They didn’t vote to destroy the NHS. They didn’t vote to increase hardship on the most vulnerable in society and to reduce the living standard for all but the very wealthiest. They voted because they were promised life would be better out of the EU than in. This cannot be achieved. It impossible to deliver what people believed they were voting for and Brexit will deliver the exact opposite of what was promised. Brexit will be an act of National suicide and we therefore will not be delivering it.

The only real success he could claim as PM was getting a surprise win

It's interesting isn't it. As Cameron held the referendum, you'd think he'd be seen as a hero in some camps. Even though he resigned with his carefree hum, he did head up the decision for the referendum enabling the great days of empire to strike back.

Why isn't he lauded being the great frugaleer, freeing us from that expenditure of 0.7% GDP membership fee? Why isn't he seen as the great liberator freeing us from those food and goods safety regulations?

Was he counting on another coalition so that he could blame the Lib Dem’s for blocking a referendum?

Yes.

And to exacerbate matters, he then couldn't run a wholehearted Remain campaign about the benefits of the EU because many of its benefits run counter to Conservative policy instincts. (see also Corbyn and his Lexit underlying beliefs )

PS

Sorry for the typo earlier I said string indicators rather than strong.

Although interestingly we do have a manufacturing industry of string cordage, rope, twine and netting it's hardly a strong part of our 10% reliance on manufacturing -and will also be negatively affected by Brexit.

Interestingly I just found this Feb 2018 study on the actual effect and vulnerability of various manufacturing sectors on different exit scenarios...

blogs.sussex.ac.uk/uktpo/publications/which-manufacturing-sectors-are-most-vulnerable-to-brexit/

Yes I agree singing.
Surely May needs to find the guts to stand up and say ‘This isn’t working'... etc.

For May to do a complete U-turn on Brexit would be extraordinary, breathtaking, brave, visionary and self-sacrificial.

It'd probably simultaneously end her political career, and seal her eventual position as one of the greats.

I'm trying to think of another time a PM did something so exceptional, stunning and courageous. (And personally suicidal.)

But I'm not sure she'd do it even if she wanted to. After she mucked up in the 2017 election and lost her majority, she promised the Tory grandees she'd sort out the mess she'd created. I think she's the sort to try and keep promises, and to her this one means achieving Brexit.

Was he counting on another coalition so that he could blame the Lib Dem’s for blocking a referendum?

I am sure he was.

As Cameron held the referendum, you'd think he'd be seen as a hero in some camps.

Never thought of that. Why on earth aren't Leavers singing his praises?

That Torygraph story

Steven Swinford @ steven_swinford
EXCLUSIVE: Department of Health warned that women will have to give up work to look after their ageing parents unless EU care workers are given priority after Brexit

In a 37-page dossier submitted to the Migration Advisory Committee, the Department for Health painted a bleak 'worst case scenario' which would see shortfall of 6,000 doctors, 12,000 nurses and 28,000 care stuff within 5 years

The document warns: 'If we fail to meet social care needs adequately we are likely to see a decrease in labour market participation levels, especially among women, as greater numbers undertake informal care'

The stark warnings lift the lid on the furious rows that have been going on behind the scenes as each department tres to secure exemptions for its own workers under post-Brexit migration regime - NHS, construction, tourism, farming...

www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/16397452.guisborough-friends-jailed-for-attack-on-would-be-soldier/
"We don't like Muslims over here' - Women tied up and tortured man, 23

For May to do a complete U-turn on Brexit would be extraordinary, breathtaking, brave, visionary and self-sacrificial.

Complete U-turn? She can do u-turns, we saw that when she called the election but this was to stick it to Labour because she was expecting to see them destroyed and for the Tories to get a huge majority.

Changing her mind on Brexit - only if the returns from Tory constituencies showed that the mood had changed but this would not be brave or visionary, but cold calculation.

Robert Peel and the Repeal of the Corn Laws? Did he destroy his reputation?
Ramsey McDonald and going into a pre war National Government? My history is a bit rusty these days.

That Telegraph story is really alarming.

I’m very much pro assisted dying. What if it were legalised due to a severe shortage of carers? That wouldn’t sit right with me at all.

Apologies if this has been posted before. LBC and vets.

Farage left speechless regarding shortage of vets in the UK.
He did not know that there was a shortage of vets and admitted that there might be a lowering of food standards after Brexit and that British farmers might suffer!!

mobile.twitter.com/JamieMcGrath__/status/1023567403974840325/video/1

each department tres to secure exemptions for its own workers under post-Brexit migration regime - NHS, construction, tourism, farming...

How strange. Why, it's almost as if we needed immigration, but that can't be, when we keep being told by Leavers that immigration needs to be reduced because it's such a burden

Not strange at all. It's all the fault of those unelected bureaucrats i.e. the Civil Service, who are all a bunch of lefties anyway. .
(Have I left any Leaver tropes out?)

How strange. Why, it's almost as if we needed immigration, but that can't be, when we keep being told by Leavers that immigration needs to be reduced because it's such a burden hmm

But Elements they were taking our jobs. Once they’ve gone all those unemployed Leave-voting surgeons, nurses and anaesthetists can step up and save the day ...

On that Telegraph story .,,

Steve Peers @stevepeers

OMG. The Brexiters are going full Trump here. This is a very weak legal argument. 1/

2/ First of all, Article 50 is lex specialis. It clearly contemplates the prospect that the EU doesn't agree a withdrawal agreement with a withdrawing Member State. So how could the EU be "breaking its own law" in this scenario?

3/ Here's the full text of Article 8 TEU, which the Telegraph story refers to. The Telegraph leaves out the awkward para 2, which says that the EU "may" enter into agreements with neighbouring States. Not an obligation then.

4/ How would this work procedurally, assuming that they want to sue the EU a la Trump? The UK could claim a "failure to act", ie an EU institution broke the law by omission.

5/ It's a weak argument substantively as I said, but where does it go in terms of remedies? A ruling of a failure to act doesn't bring a trade deal into being. Article 8 isn't precise.

6/ The CJEU traditionally leaves lots of political discretion to the EU institutions as regards external relations. It's arguable that there's an obligation to negotiate but the EU is willing to negotiate, just not on terms that Brexiters like.

Tl;Dr: this argument is desperate.

7/ PS: Here's Liam Fox running the argument that the EU is legally required by Article 8 TEU to give the UK a trade agreement and abolish tariffs. As you can see from the text of Article 8 screenshot above, this is clearly untrue

twitter.com/EmporersNewC/status/1026190838991335424?s=19

I think she's the sort to try and keep promises, and to her this one means achieving Brexit.

Sadly, I’m sure you’re right Hester but if only she could see that there is an implicit promise in the role of PM not to knowlingly do harm to the country.

That William Rees-Mogg book's premise and predictions are pretty eye opening. Bloody hell - suddenly everything Jacob Rees-Mogg is doing makes perfect bloody sense.

I found myself despairing a bit yesterday. I was having a perfectly lovely Sunday, but sat down to read a bit of BBC news coverage and saw a whole article based on the premise that the EU needs to come up with a solution to save Britain from itself, and if they don't they are being unfair. this was all backed up with quotes from Fox and Patel, who were left free to spin packs of lies without anything even resembling journalistic fact checking.

At what point does the Beeb actually do its damned job and ask tough, insightful questions of people driving our Brexit strategy? At the moment they are complicit in keeping people in a state of confused complacency.

Farage left speechless regarding shortage...

Well if he is permanently speechless that's a bonus. This may be self defeating, but this failed politician and talk show host has mercifully been out of the headlines for a while. Now there's talk of him standing again.

He has been mentioned dozens of times again over the last few days. Why on Earth is his star in the ascendant.

The Green Party at least has proved electable but we hear far less of Caroline Lucas.

Article 8 TEU text.

Note the word obligations in the above text. The Brexiteers don't do obligations.

And again on the Telegraph headline:

David Allen Green @davidallengreen

Have been laughing like a drain for 12 hours now on this.

Previously, Brexiters had as an absolute demand that EU courts had no jurisdiction and EU law no application.

Now: Brexiters say EU courts and EU law are their only hope.

Perhaps the daftest headline yet on Brexit.

1.

Of course, and you did not need to be told this, this is flapdoodle of the flappiest kind.

The EU treaties impose no such obligation.

Indeed, the treaties provided for what happens if there is not an agreement: ie, the departing member state leaves without an agreement.

2.

The sad thing is that after two years of detailed debate about Brexit and all its legal aspects, a national newspaper can still get away with such a splash.

Twaddle, and desperate twaddle at that.

3 and ends.

All the trade deals the UK has as a member of the EU... Now that's "Global Britain" thanks to the EU global trade platform.

A List of Countries the U.K. has Free Trade Agreements and Preferential Trading Agreements with as a member of the E.U.

Next time somebody is trying to tell you that remaining in the EU is an insular way of seeing things and that leaving the EU somehow allows us to ‘make our own trade deals and trade with the rest of the world’, you might like to show them this list of trade deals we have right now as a member of the EU team.

Of course, these are on top of the 27 free-trade deals we have with our EU partners and 4 free-trade deals we have with our EFTA colleagues (Norway, Iceland, Lichtenstein & Switzerland).

All deals that the U.K. negotiated from a position of strength over 45 years within the world’s most powerful trade negotiation team, the EU, and that’s according to the US team.

In trade negotiations, a very important part of your negotiation stance is the size of the market you can offer access to. The EU can name its price regarding safety, security and processes required by importers by in turn offering them access to a market of 512 million developed consumers for complying.

Outside the EU, the U.K. will only be able to offer 65 million consumers, and that immediately gives us a much weaker hand in getting the standards we require. Foreign importers will simply be prepared to offer less for access to a smaller market.

Less desire to trade with the U.K. means a lower need for Sterling and therefore the pound loses value, making foreign imports more expensive for British consumers to buy. Many foodstuffs, goods and services cannot be made or grown here, so we must pay more, or do without.

The question isn’t about the UK getting ‘a deal’, it’s more to do with what those deals are like and how long the U.K. must sell and trade at a significant disadvantage whilst those inferior trade deals come into effect.

Of course, after Brexit, the UK will be in direct competition with the powerful union of the EU and its firms. Since we are no longer a partner, they, and corporations all over the world, will be keen to seize our sales and market share, especially while we are so vulnerable.

Nor are all trade deals the same. The simpler ones, worth less, or which see the U.K. desperate and somewhat over-a-barrel are quick, usually taking 2-3 years. The more valuable ones worth more take about a decade.

The EU’s trade deal with Canada (CETA) took 8 years, was goods only and required a Canadian trade negotiation team of 864 negotiators. The U.K. has less that 20 negotiators in total to negotiate goods and services deals with some 217 nations and territories across the world, and very little time to waste.

The EU on the other hand has been building trade relationships since 1957, and we have been a part of this since 1973, some 45 years which has seen us deeply involved with our partners in building smoother supply chains, greater speed and security, higher levels of safety and more streamlined bureaucracy in all aspects of our global trade.

Nor do ‘they need a deal with us as much as we need a deal with them’. The U.K. market accounts for only 2-3% of the EU 27’s global sales, whereas the EU-Japan Free Trade Agreement just signed accounts for one-third of all global GDP.

———————————————-

Types of EU trade agreement
There are three main types of agreements:

Customs Unions
These eliminate customs duties in bilateral trade and establish a joint customs tariff for foreign importers

Association Agreements, Stabilisation Agreements, (Deep and Comprehensive) Free Trade Agreements and Economic Partnership Agreements
These remove or reduce customs tariffs in bilateral trade.

Partnership and Cooperation Agreements
These provide a general framework for bilateral economic relations, but leave customs tariffs as they are.
———————————————-

EU Agreements in Place:

Albania (Western Balkans)
Stabilisation and Association Agreement
In force since 2009

Algeria
Association Agreement
In force since 01/09/2005

Andorra
Customs Union
In force since 01/01/1991

Armenia
Partnership and Cooperation Agreement
In force since 09/09/1999

Azerbaijan
Partnership and Cooperation Agreement
In force since 1999

Bosnia and Herzegovina (Western Balkans)
Stabilisation and Association Agreement
In force since 01/06/2015

Botswana (SADC)
Economic Partnership Agreement
In force since 05/02/2018

Chile
Association Agreement and Additional Protocol
In force since 01/03/2005

Egypt
Association Agreement
In force since 01/06/2004

Faroe Islands
Agreement
In force since 01/01/1997

Georgia
Association Agreement
In force since 01/07/2016

Iceland
Economic Area Agreement
In force since 1994

Israel
Association Agreement
In force since 01/06/2000

Jordan
Association Agreement
In force since 01/05/2002

Kosovo (UNSCR 1244)
Stabilisation and Association Agreement
In force since 01/04/2016

Lebanon
Association Agreement
In force since 01/04/2006

Lesotho (SADC)
Economic Partnership Agreement
In force since 05/02/2018

Macedonia, Former Yugoslav Republic of (Western Balkans)
Stabilisation and Association Agreement
In force since 01/04/2004

Mexico
Global Agreement
In force since 01/10/2000

Moldova
Association Agreement
In force since 01/07/2016

Montenegro (Western Balkans)
Stabilisation and Association Agreement
In force since 01/05/2010

Morocco
Association Agreement
In force since 01/03/2000

Mozambique (SADC)
Economic Partnership Agreement
In force since 05/02/2018

Namibia (SADC)
Economic Partnership Agreement
In force since 05/02/2018

Norway
Economic Area Agreement
In force since 1994

Palestinian Authority
Interim Association Agreement
In force since 01/07/1997

Russia
Partnership and Cooperation Agreement
In force since 01/12/1997

San Marino
Customs Union
In force since 01/04/2002

Serbia (Western Balkans)
Stabilisation and Association Agreement
In force since 01/09/2013

South Africa
Economic Partnership Agreement
In force since 05/02/2018

South Korea
Free Trade Agreement
In force since 01/07/2016

Swaziland (SADC)
Economic Partnership Agreement
In force since 05/02/2018

Switzerland
Agreement
In force since 01/01/1973

Syria
Co-operation Agreement
In force since 01/07/1977

Tunisia
Association Agreement
In force since 01/03/1998

Turkey
Customs Union
In force since 31/12/1995

———————————————-
EU Agreements Partly in Place:
These are countries and regions that have part (but not all) of their agreements in place with the EU. The agreement is fully applied when all parties have ratified the agreement.

Antigua and Barbuda (CARIFORUM)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Provisionally applied since 2008

Armenia
Updated Partnership and Cooperation Agreement
Provisionally applied since 06/2018

Bahamas (CARIFORUM)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Provisionally applied since 2008

Barbados (CARIFORUM)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Provisionally applied since 2008

Belize (CARIFORUM)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Provisionally applied since 2008

Botswana (SADC)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Provisionally applied since 10/10/2016

Cameroon (Central Africa)
Interim Economic Partnership Agreement
Provisionally applied since 2014

Canada
Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA)
Signed 30 October 2016, provisionally applied since 21/09/2017

Colombia (with Ecuador and Peru)
Trade Agreement
Signed 26/07/2012, provisionally applied since 2013

Côte d'Ivoire (West Africa)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Provisionally applied since 03/09/2016

Comoros (ESA)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Signed 08/2009, not yet provisionally applied

Costa Rica (Central America)
Association Agreement with a strong trade component
Signed 29/06/2012, provisionally applied since 2013

Cuba
Political Dialogue and Cooperation Agreement
Provisionally applied since 1/11/2017

Dominica (CARIFORUM)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Provisionally applied since 2008

Djibouti (ESA)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Signed 08/2009, not yet provisionally applied

Dominican Republic (CARIFORUM)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Provisionally applied since 2008

Ecuador (with Colombia and Peru)
Trade Agreement
Signed 26/07/2012, provisionally applied since 2013

El Salvador (Central America)
Association Agreement with a strong trade component
Signed 29/06/2012, provisionally applied since 2013

Eritrea (ESA) Economic Partnership Agreement
Signed 08/2009, not yet provisionally applied

Ethiopia (ESA)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Signed 08/2009, not yet provisionally applied

Fiji (with Papua New Guinea)
Interim Partnership Agreement
Ratified by Papua New Guinea in May 2011

Ghana (West Africa)
Stepping stone Economic Partnership Agreement provisionally applied
Provisionally applied since 15/12/2016

Grenada (CARIFORUM)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Provisionally applied since 2008

Guatemala (Central America)
Association Agreement with a strong trade component
Signed 29/06/2012, provisionally applied since 2013

Guyana (CARIFORUM)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Provisionally applied since 2008

Haiti (CARIFORUM)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Haitian ratification still pending

Honduras (Central America)
Association Agreement with a strong trade component
Signed 29/06/2012, provisionally applied since 2013

Jamaica (CARIFORUM)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Provisionally applied since 2008

Kazakhstan
Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement
Provisionally applied since 01/05/2016

Madagascar, Mauritius, the Seychelles, and Zimbabwe (ESA)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Signed 08/2009, provisionally applied since 2012

Papua New Guinea and Fiji
Interim Partnership Agreement
Ratified by Papua New Guinea in May 2011

Namibia (SADC)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Provisionally applied since 10/10/2016

Nicaragua (Central America)
Association Agreement with a strong trade component
Signed 29/06/2012, provisionally applied since 2013

Panama (Central America)
Association Agreement with a strong trade component
Signed 29/06/2012, provisionally applied since 2013

Papua New Guinea (with Fiji)
Interim Partnership Agreement
Ratified by Papua New Guinea in May 2011

Madagascar (ESA)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Signed 08/2009, provisionally applied since 06/2011

Peru (with Colombia and Ecuador)
Trade Agreement Signed 26/07/2012, provisionally applied since 2013

South Africa
Economic Partnership Agreement
Provisionally applied since 10/10/2016

St Kitts and Nevis (CARIFORUM)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Provisionally applied since 2008

St Lucia (CARIFORUM)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Provisionally applied since 2008

St Vincent and the Grenadines (CARIFORUM)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Provisionally applied since 2008

Sudan (ESA)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Signed 08/2009, not provisionally applied yet

Suriname (CARIFORUM)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Provisionally applied since 2008

Trinidad and Tobago (CARIFORUM)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Provisionally applied since 2008

Ukraine
Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement.
Associate Agreement Signed 29/05/2014, provisionally applied since 01/01/2016

Zambia (ESA)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Signed 08/2009, not provisionally applied yet

———————————————-
Agreements Pending:
In some circumstances trade negotiations with a trade partner have been concluded, but have not been either signed or ratified yet. This means that although the negotiations have finished, no part of the agreement is in place yet.

Burundi (EAC)
Economic partnership Agreement
Has not signed or ratified agreement

Japan
Economic partnership Agreement
Negotiations started 01/03/2013, concluded December 2017, awaiting signature

Kenya (EAC)
Economic partnership Agreement
Signed and ratified, provisional application when all EAC countries sign and ratify

Rwanda (EAC)
Economic partnership Agreement
Signed, provisional application when all EAC countries sign and ratify

Singapore
Free Trade Agreement
Subject to CJEU opinion 2/15, awaiting signature

Tanzania (EAC)
Economic partnership Agreement
Has not signed or ratified agreement

Uganda (EAC)
Economic partnership Agreement
Has not signed or ratified agreement

Vietnam
Free Trade Agreement
Negotiations concluded December 2016, expected to enter into force in 2018

———————————————-
Agreements Being Updated:
The EU has trade agreements in place with these countries/regions, but both sides are now negotiating an update

Azerbaijan
Update of Partnership and Cooperation Agreement
Negotiations began February 2017

Chile
Modernise trade part of Association Agreement
Negotiations began 16/11/2017

Mexico
Modernisation of Global Agreement
‘Agreement in principle’ on the trade part reached in April 2018

Morocco
Update of Association Agreement to create a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area
Negotiations began 01/03/2013, on hold since April 2014

Tunisia
Update of Association Agreement to create a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area
Negotiations began 12/10/2013

———————————————-
(contd)