Westminstenders: In the Brexit Lane

[RedToothBrush]

I honestly couldn't think of a better starter to the thread than simply just this tweet

Robert Peston @ peston
We’ve got an official opposition tearing itself apart over antisemitism, the founder of the EDL running rings around the judiciary and a government negotiating a Brexit plan that its own MPs and ministers tell me is dead. When will we pull ourselves together, as a nation?

But don't worry, your blue passport will get you an extra special long wait at passport control. And no deal could lead to continued freedom of movement anyway. Something for everyone in there.

(from previous)

Agreements Being Negotiated:
Agreements currently under negotiation

Argentina (Mercosur)
Mercosur Association Agreement
Negotiations resumed May 2010

Australia
Australia Agreement
Negotiations launched in June 2018

Bahrain (GCC)
Free Trade Agreement
Negotiations started 1990, suspended since 2008

Brazil (Mercosur)
Mercosur Association Agreement
Negotiations resumed May 2010

China
EU-China investment agreement
Negotiations started 21/11/2013

India
Free Trade Agreement
Negotiations started 2007, last round in 2013

Indonesia
Free Trade Agreement
Negotiations started 01/09/2016

Kuwait (GCC)
Free Trade Agreement
Negotiations started 1990, suspended since 2008

Malaysia
Free Trade Agreement
Negotiations started October 2010, paused since April 2012

Myanmar
Investment protection agreement
Negotiations started 2015

New Zealand
New Zealand Agreement
Negotiations launched in June 2018

Oman (GCC)
Free Trade Agreement
Negotiations started 1990, suspended since 2008

Paraguay (Mercosur)
Mercosur Association Agreement
Negotiations resumed May 2010

Philippines
Free Trade Agreement
Negotiations started 01/12/2015

Qatar (GCC)
Free Trade Agreement
Negotiations started 1990, suspended since 2008

Saudi Arabia (GCC)
Free Trade Agreement
Negotiations started 1990, suspended since 2008

Thailand
Free Trade Agreement
Negotiations started 01/03/2013, no negotiations scheduled since 2014

United Arab Emirates (GCC)
Free Trade Agreement
Negotiations started 1990, suspended since 2008

United States of America
Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership
Negotiations started 2013, paused until further notice 2016

Uruguay (Mercosur)
Mercosur Association Agreement
Negotiations resumed May 2010

Venezuela
Mercosur Free Trade Agreement
Suspended as Mercosur Member

In a 37-page dossier submitted to the Migration Advisory Committee, the Department for Health painted a bleak 'worst case scenario' which would see shortfall of 6,000 doctors, 12,000 nurses and 28,000 care stuff within 5 years

The NHS already has a shortfall of 25,000 nurses - so is this another 12,000 that the DoH is talking about? 10% of doctors in the NHS come from elsewhere in the EU. If these decide to leave the UK, the shortfall will be far more than 6,000. Note - the UK has long had one of the lowest ratios of doctors to patients in the western world, so to improve access to doctors, the number needs to greatly increase to be on a par with other countries.

If there aren't any medicines, there's probably less need for doctors and pharmacists anyway.

Our gardens are going to be pretty busy, feeding and curing us simultaneously.

I am expecting a flood of articles in the more Brexity rags about all the things cress has just been discovered to be good for. Along with a "collect 5 vouchers and win a window box" from the Express. The Mail (of course) would be offering a garden planter.

I wonder if the people who support Brexit as Brexiteers are as thick in their day jobs (those that have them) as they are at Brexit ? All of a sudden some things would make sense.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-45080539

The boss of British Airways has criticised long queues at Heathrow, saying arrivals face two-hour waits to get through border control.

(contd)

Once again, Schrodinger's Brexit pops up. Creating a separate blue-passport queue and diverting resources from an already overstretched service is hardly going to speed existing queues up ?

Welcome to Heathrow. Can we remind passengers to adjust their watches to the current time zone of 1972. Thank you.

Any MNetters who grew up in the 70s starting to feel a creeping sense of deja vu ?

I wonder if there are still "Green Goddesses" around ?

@DGRossetti

Insulting Brexit supporters is not furthering the Remain argument.

A large number (but far from all) of Brexit supporters have no job. Another large group have jobs but are struggling to make ends meet. For many people, things have been bad and getting worse for the last 8-10 years and they have been asking themselves why.

The Leave campaign didn't come up with any facts and figures, nor any financial analysis or great tables of information. Leave identified the (wrong) scapegoat as being the EU, rather than the failed policies of both Labour and Conservative governments over the last 30 years, and presented the easily-understood slogans and the message 'EU Bad / Leave Good' - or rather 'we can leave the EU, make our own laws, but the EU will be so desperate for our business that they will accept all of our demands regarding free trade.' A large enough number of ragged-trousered philanthropists bought this.

Insulting Brexit supporters is not furthering the Remain argument.

Well they're immune to facts and logic. And very good at dishing out insults - no threats - from their side. So fuck'em.

A large number (but far from all) of Brexit supporters have no job. Another large group have jobs but are struggling to make ends meet. For many people, things have been bad and getting worse for the last 8-10 years and they have been asking themselves why.

but arrived at the wrong answer ....

I think you're being tricked by very vocal "leavers" who are completely impervious to any facts and figures into thinking that makes up everyone or even 80% of people who voted leave. In any situation you are going to have a huge central fairly inert and moderate chunk who give something a bit of thought but not necessarily a huge amount and then carry on. Its those people you may be able to win over to thinking "hold on this was a terrible idea" by continual presentation of facts and figures until they see something that catches their attention but who will probably switch off with more shouty arguments. And I say tricked because its not possible for people who have been continually engaging with the discussion to not remember what they have seen multiple times before unless they have goldfish memories. I believe they want to provoke a response that they can then go "Ah ha! See ! Condescending! Shout shout" and put off the moderate centre from engaging. This is of course just my opinion and given my fairly poor reading of societal mood in recent years may be entirely wrong.

And I really must learn to place paragraphs.

In a 37-page dossier submitted to the Migration Advisory Committee, the Department for Health painted a bleak 'worst case scenario' which would see shortfall of 6,000 doctors, 12,000 nurses and 28,000 care stuff within 5 years

The NHS already has a shortfall of 25,000 nurses - so is this another 12,000 that the DoH is talking about? 10% of doctors in the NHS come from elsewhere in the EU. If these decide to leave the UK, the shortfall will be far more than 6,000.

I'd imagine this is all a happy side effect of Brexit for a large amount of Tories. We might fuck up the country but we're going to have a good shot at destroying the NHS too!

Any MNetters who grew up in the 70s starting to feel a creeping sense of deja vu ?

Holds hands up

That’s why I’m so baffled by the 50/60 something Leavers. I can almost understand the disaffected youth vote, but that people who had firsthand experience of the U.K. in the early 70s would vote for a return to it is bewildering.

Thanks for the trade deals post DG . Sobering, but important, reading.

I'd imagine this is all a happy side effect of Brexit for a large amount of Tories. We might fuck up the country but we're going to have a good shot at destroying the NHS too!

ballyhoo I had this very conversation with a friend last night. A nice little bonus for the Tories and they will be able to blame the destruction of the NHS and probably the dismantling of what’s left of the welfare state on the evil EU who wouldn’t Give us a special deal.

A large number (but far from all) of Brexit supporters have no job. Another large group have jobs but are struggling to make ends meet.

This is a highly misleading summary. From the British Election Study, we know that only around 2% of Leave voters are unemployed and looking for a job (the same as the Remain percentage). 44% of Leave voters are working either PT (13%) or FT (31%). This is lower than the 56% of Remain voters in work (14% PT, 42% FT), but mainly because of a higher number of pensioners who voted Leave (38% of Leave voters are pensioners, vs. 27% of Remain voters). There is also a slightly higher percentage of Leave voters who are out of the labour force and not looking for work (stay at home parents, long-term disabled, etc.).

Also interesting to note that a higher percentage of Leave voters own their home without a mortgage (45%, vs. 38% for Remain voters). Leave voters were more likely to be on lower incomes, but the difference isn't huge:

Below £25,000 - 56% voted Leave, 44% Remain
£25,000 - £50,000 - 53% voted Leave, 47% Remain
Over £50,000 - 54% voted Leave, 46% Remain

The most significant differences between Leave and Remain voters are age and education, alongside personality profile (e.g., attitudes to risk, openness to diversity, etc.), but the latter may be a function of education. Income, work status, etc. are less relevant. Regional differences also have a huge impact: there are significant cultural factors at play. So, for instance, wealthy voters were much more likely to vote Leave in deprived declining areas, when compared to very similar wealthy voters in high-growth areas regardless of their own personal circumstances.

Sorry that was long... I just think the narrative that Leave voters are mostly poor and/or unemployed is very misleading.

I should add that the income figures are total annual household income (gross - before taxes), rather than personal income. This includes pensions and benefits.

The government probably wouldn't mind too much if women had to give up work to care for relatives. The paltry amount that is carers allowance would make for big savings compared to the amount paid out in social care.

I also expect that assessments will underplay caring needs and said women will be expected to work and then end up fulfilling a caring role around that.

I'm just about to write a complaint to the BBC. I was listening to why I changed my mind with Gisela Stewart last night and she stated twice that vote leave stopped campaigning after Jo Cox's death, which we all know to be untrue. The interviewer didn't challenge this at all, not was a correction issued at the end which would have been understandable if the facts about the vote leave ads hadn't been known at the time of the interview.

Long time lurker here (refugee from Gransnet, a number of whom follow these threads, too)

That’s why I’m so baffled by the 50/60 something Leavers. I can almost understand the disaffected youth vote, but that people who had firsthand experience of the U.K. in the early 70s would vote for a return to it is bewildering.

Judging from the Gnetters and Leavers of my acquaintance, they voted Leave because they lived through the 70s. They say that it was hard at times but we mangaed (of course we did, we joined the EEC in 1973) and we British are good at making the best of a bad job. and., we managed before we joined the EEC so we'll be fine...

Funnily enough, most of the more highly educated of my contemporary friends and acquaintances (60 - 70 age group) voted Remain.

I'm sure this isn't news to any of you...

So my DD is expected to give up her job as a doctor to, eventually, look after me? (Assuming she and her partner don't emigrate....)
Over 50% of her cohort in med school was female. Is this going to happen to all of them?

Gisela Stewart is one of the most hypocritical & nauseating people out there, if she d been a remainer, i d have voted to leave!!!!! lol!

Though Daniel Hannon runs her a close 2nd.

Both are a pair of self serving liars.

I was born in 1953 so lived my teenage years/20s through the 60s and 70s. I'm completely baffled as to why anyone would think things were better then. Unless just because they were young...

I'm going to give up my professional job to look after my DM and around that I will do a bit of fruit picking. Sorted.

Women looking after elderly parents will presumably improve the unemployment figures and will reduce the bill for universal credit. Presumably that's as far as this government is able to see. Some of them may also yearn for the days when men automatically got the good, breadwinner type jobs and women were subservient carers.

This is the ONS definition of employment

www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/methodologies/aguidetolabourmarketstatistics

Employment

The number of people in employment in the UK is measured by the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and consists of people aged 16 and over who did one hour or more of paid work per week (as an employee or self-employed), those who had a job that they were temporarily away from, those on government-supported training and employment programmes, and those doing unpaid family work. Employment levels and rates are published each month in the labour market statistical bulletin.

Women looking after elderly parents will presumably improve the unemployment figures and will reduce the bill for universal credit.

Never forget, there are a significant number of people (women included) who believe that women should not work, but stay at home and bring up children. If they can engineer a return to that fantasy they have in their heads (because in reality it's well off, women that don't need to work) by fair means or foul they will.

We've already started, with the 2-child cap on child benefit. It's not where we are headed. It's where we are.