Westministenders: A LOOOONNNGGGGGGGG Hot Summer

[RedToothBrush]

May has officially demoted Raab and the Brexit Department to just being responsible for practical implimentation in the UK and not negogitions.

This shouldn't be a surprise, its been the case in reality for some time, much to David Davis annoyance.

The official government position now seems to be scare the shit out of everyone about the possibility of No Deal in order to force the EU to make a deal. Jeremy Hunt has been dutifully spelling this out, by talking about an 'accidental' Brexit.

The government are already outsourcing responsibility for this potential eventuality to industy and business by telling them they need to stockpile food in order to keep supply lines going. This WILL mean price rises will start to happen soon. It also means there is no coordinated government plan and if businesses can't afford to do this as its heavily dependant on having sufficient cash flow in reserve to be able to do it, or don't want to, then you, me and everyone else is going to be well and truly on their own. Whilst the public are not being told to stockpile, its hard to justify not doing so, if this is the current government line.

The government has also done a u-turn on when the repeal of the European Communities Act will come into force. They fought hard to have it fixed for 29th March 2019. Thats now been rolled back to Dec 2020. This is fine, but in practice, makes no difference what so ever if we have no deal or the EU refuse to honour a transition deal on the terms the UK want. The ERG will also go nuts at it and try to get May to roll back on it.

Raab has also made a point of saying that if we don't have a deal by October (rather than midnight 29th March 2019) we are going into No Deal land by default.

Parliament has now broken up for the summer, with May surviving, so things are likely to be a little quieter for a few weeks, but come September this is all going to blow up with avengance.

If you think the last few weeks have been a rollercoaster, just wait for the Autumn.

Stockpiling

I am stockpiling and tonic

Health and Social Care Committee @CommonsHealth
@MattHancock : "The department is working up options with industry for stockpiling medicines, medical devices and substances of human origin in the case of a no-deal Brexit. Obviously there will be a cost for this."

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
Well.

Health Secretary says UK is now also planning to fund No Deal Brexit stockpiles for medicines, medical devices and “substances of human origin” [blood??]

Yes - under EU law “substances of human origin” refers mainly to blood and also tissues and organs... so the Health Secretary is referring to the need for blood stockpiles in event of No Deal Brexit

my name @drphunkneuro
Iv immunoglobulin and other blood products uk can't produce due to cjd but are essential for many patients and sourced abroad

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
Is that true that we still can’t produce here?

myname @drphunkneuro
Yup. Source it abroad. Recent issues with supply in some parts of uk for other reasons. Theoretical ongoing risk cjd

twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1021776777457422336

Don't worry folks. Dominic Raab has made sure we won't get a border in the Red Sea.

Jonathan Lis @jonlis1
Um, is it awfully impolite to mention that WE DIDN’T VOTE TO LIVE LIKE SURVIVORS OF A NUCLEAR HOLOCAUST? Asking for a friend who’s having a bad trip

I thought that A50 triggering put it at March 2019 so we HAVE to leave then unless we ask for an extension?

So where are they planning on stockpiling all this stuff? Where are the empty warehouses big enough to store 'adequate' food for 65 million people for ... a week? A month? 50 years?

Thanks for the new thread Red

So now that stockpiling is "official" are we going to get a U-turn from all the sneerers around these parts?

I thought that A50 triggering put it at March 2019 so we HAVE to leave then unless we ask for an extension?

We'll be divorced but rather than moving to our new sunlit home we've decided to squat in the shed and live off mouse droppings.

Is Dominic Raab going to try fighting Suez again?

Thanks red

in.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-wto/britain-and-eu-formally-start-splitting-wto-membership-agreements-idINKBN1KE2LJ

So in the WTO front, it seems that it will not be as easy as ‘we will trade under WTO’ and that some countries are actually unhappy with our proposal. And yes it includes our close partner the US.....

“WTO members will have three months to review the schedule, which will be considered to be approved if there are no objections from other members,” the WTO said in a statement.

Seven agricultural suppliers - including the United States, Canada and Australia - have already said they disapprove of the terms of the divorce, since they will lose flexibility to switch exports between Britain and the rest of the EU.

Their objections are likely to force Britain into a wider negotiation, said David Henig, a former British trade official who now leads the UK Trade Policy Project at the European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE).

How much are we going to loose there? And do we have trade negotiators that actually good at it? It’s always harder when you haven’t done something for years (which we didn’t as the EU did it for during the last 20+ years)....

Placemarking.

God, this is shit.

.

Now, I would like to know. How much of this stockpiling stuff is full on propaganda from the government and how is actually proper preparations?

We know TM said her aim is a DEAL with the EU, not a No Deal situation.
We know that the U.K. will not survive a proper NonDeal in March 19. That much is clear.

None of what is been said (lack of medication, flights, boats not allowed to come in or out of the U.K., etc etc) is actually news. It has been known a No Deal would do that for years, even if it hasn’t been advertised until now.
So why putting so much emphasis on it now?
Is it to frighten the EU and out pressure on them? (In a ‘how can you even consider putting 60 millions people in that situation’ type pressure)
IS it to prepare the British population about how horrible this wouod be so there is risk of anyone saying ‘no we’re not happy with it deal’ and ensure the population will accept whatever she can negotiate?

Who is the propaganda, because it really feels like propaganda, for?

Add to that the fact she has always and still is putting any proper brexiters on the side and is doing the negociations herself. And not trusting ministers in her own government (see Raab and DD before etc...). And the fact the EU is saying that 80% of the agreement is done.

What is actually happening in the background we dint know about?

I’m starting to feel that a lot of the stuff going on atm is a lot of smoke to distract everyone (incl JRM and the likes) about the real decisions taken behind closed doors.

I wonder if it will be a quiet summer or will all hell break lose.? I am now wondering exactly how this impasse can be resolved, with as much face saving as possible. I thought Bogdanor's suggestion in the Guardian was quite a useful start.

I wonder if it will be a quiet summer or will all hell break lose.?

The weather really isn't helping ...

Negotiations and policy making in the Ministry of Justice... These job descriptions make me want to weep at just how much there is to be done

Hermione, I've spent the past two years digging deeper and deeper into what the actual options for Brexit are and thinking that no-one in their right mind would push for No Deal, and yet that's all I've seen in the papers and (apparently) happily accepted by a huge swath of the population. Is this really propaganda, or is this just finally understanding dawning that maybe the "advantages" of crashing out may have been just a teeny bit oversold?

I’m thinking propaganda because of all the talk coming out of the government about stockpiling, issues with medicines etc...

If it had been another expert, businesses, or just journalists actually their work, then it would be different.

I can't believe they have all gone on holiday!

Why should the EU compromise on anything? The UK started this. The EU have simply highlighted the rules and asked the UK to come up with a plan, which it has failed to do, certainly not attempting to meet the really important red lines of the EU which necessarily bind it together.
Some would like the EU to fail, however this will let the likes of the USA, Russia, China and ISIS stomp all over Europe.

I mainly lurk here, but do dip in and out of the threads when I can.
Not directly Brexit related, but did anyone else heard the interview with Arran Banks about the Lesotha corruption allegations?
He was very indignant in explaining that of course the money he paid directly into the bank account of a government minister has nothing to do with licenses for diamond mines, but was in fact to "help women and girls" in Lesotha. His arrogance is astounding.His

He always sounds so pissed off and contemptuous whenever I hear him interviewed by a journalist, with that tone of voice that people use to imply that the person they're speaking too is really stupid. especially when the journalist is female, weirdly enough.

Strongly suspect that any Lesotho corruption is just the tip of the iceberg, and it's pretty plain to anyone who wants to see that his political meddling in the UK is murky as anything.I

It cheers me up (in a week full of gloomy news) to think that he might get some kind of comeuppance, but he'll probably slither out of it won't he?

I mention Isis but include the other terror organisations taking over parts of Africa (hence the increase in immigrants in the last few years) and it would be natural for them to try to get a foothold in Europe, which is a bit more habitable and profitable than large swathes of desert.

Who is the propaganda, because it really feels like propaganda, for?

Technically speaking propaganda is a neutral term. Advertising is a form of propaganda. So are health campaigns. But we tend to associate it with governments and rather sinister overtones.

This is a definition:

Propaganda is the information that is not objective and is used primarily to influence an audience and further an agenda, often by presenting facts selectively to encourage a particular synthesis or perception, or using loaded language to produce an emotional rather than a rational response to the information that is presented.

We have been in the middle of a full on propaganda war for some years now. Everything relating to Brexit is mired in it. Social media in general is a huge great cess pit of it.

With the media no longer acting as a barrier between the public and this shit, we are going to have to get used to it, and learn to deal with it as that's the whole future of the entire world just right there in 280 characters or a certain number of likes.

We should all know exactly what propaganda is and be able to identify it. As a minimum.

It's another one of those essential things (like how democracy and how right work) that should be taught well in schools. Not as a afterthought.

But hey ho. Happy 2018. 2016 is starting to look rather sane.