Westministenders: A LOOOONNNGGGGGGGG Hot Summer

[RedToothBrush]

May has officially demoted Raab and the Brexit Department to just being responsible for practical implimentation in the UK and not negogitions.

This shouldn't be a surprise, its been the case in reality for some time, much to David Davis annoyance.

The official government position now seems to be scare the shit out of everyone about the possibility of No Deal in order to force the EU to make a deal. Jeremy Hunt has been dutifully spelling this out, by talking about an 'accidental' Brexit.

The government are already outsourcing responsibility for this potential eventuality to industy and business by telling them they need to stockpile food in order to keep supply lines going. This WILL mean price rises will start to happen soon. It also means there is no coordinated government plan and if businesses can't afford to do this as its heavily dependant on having sufficient cash flow in reserve to be able to do it, or don't want to, then you, me and everyone else is going to be well and truly on their own. Whilst the public are not being told to stockpile, its hard to justify not doing so, if this is the current government line.

The government has also done a u-turn on when the repeal of the European Communities Act will come into force. They fought hard to have it fixed for 29th March 2019. Thats now been rolled back to Dec 2020. This is fine, but in practice, makes no difference what so ever if we have no deal or the EU refuse to honour a transition deal on the terms the UK want. The ERG will also go nuts at it and try to get May to roll back on it.

Raab has also made a point of saying that if we don't have a deal by October (rather than midnight 29th March 2019) we are going into No Deal land by default.

Parliament has now broken up for the summer, with May surviving, so things are likely to be a little quieter for a few weeks, but come September this is all going to blow up with avengance.

If you think the last few weeks have been a rollercoaster, just wait for the Autumn.

Mother until we beg and fold to the requirements.

Which with this government could me indefinitely.

Elena - it's the one on why do Scottish Nationals want to leave one union but join another.

Have a read from the start - it's quite amusing - and quite educational for those that want to listen to the answers

Thank you

David Allen Green @ davidallengreen
"But at least the ration books will be blue," said the Brexiteer.

David Head @ davidheadviews
The MP - Dominic Raab - who once said food bank users were people with a "cashflow problem", has now become Minister for the National Food Bank, stockpiling Spam etc in case there's a #NoDealBrexit, which would turn the UK into a nation with a cashflow problem.

He's the perfect man for the job then.

.

Given the weather, how much stockpiling are 'industry' going to be able to do?

I've heard reports that are very concerning from farmers and do not indicate that even if there was a will for 'industry' to stockpile there may not be enough to do so.

How much of the 49% or so of food that we grow in the UK derives from farming activities? I'd wager a vast proportion of it.

How much of that do we currently export? And will 'industry' be happy to cut exports to assist in what is, at present, a hypothetical (albeit looking more likely by the day) scenario? I doubt it. Firstly such contracts have a long lead time so they will be bound to supply, and secondly because a bird in the hand and all that.

Clash, the answers to your question should be in here:
www.gov.uk/government/publications/food-statistics-pocketbook-2017/food-statistics-in-your-pocket-2017-global-and-uk-supply

Just having a look through it myself now.

Excellent Red, I'll take a look.

I have a feeling (but not researched) that as the weather has been so unusual crops may not be as plentiful as they should be. Too much sun (drought) will reduce yield. Your lawn looking manky is one thing but large scale drought really kills off agriculture. There was a lettuce shortage earlier in the year. Granted they are seasonal but what storeable crops are suffering now?

Based on the farm-gate value of unprocessed food in 20162, the UK supplied just under half (49%) of the food consumed in the UK. The leading foreign supplier of food consumed in the UK were countries from the EU (30%). Africa supplied 5%, Asia, North and South America all provided a 4% share of the food consumed in the UK.

The three largest value imported commodity groups (at 2016 prices) were fruit & vegetables, meat and beverages

30% of our food is imported from the EU

and

Food Production to Supply Ratio is calculated as the farm-gate value of raw food production (including for export) divided by the value of raw food for human consumption. It provides a broad indicator of the ability of UK agriculture to meet consumer demand.

A high production to supply ratio fails to insulate a country against many possible disruptions to its supply chain. The ratio in 2016 was 60% for all food and 76% for indigenous type food. This compares with 61% and 76% respectively in 2015 showing very little change between the years

So we are vulnerable to supply chain disruptions - far more than we were during WW2.

and

In 2016 the value of imports was greater than the value of exports in each of the broad categories of food, feed and drink except ‘Beverages’ which had a trade surplus of £1.35 bn, largely due to exports of Scotch Whisky.

Makes note: 'Do not need to stockpile whiskey'

In the 5 years to 2015, 52% of suppliers reduced their distribution centre stock levels while only 22% increased their stock. 26% of suppliers had no change in stock levels.

In the same period, 40% of retailers had no change in stock levels, while 30% of suppliers increased stock levels and the same proportion saw a decrease.

The majority of retail supply chains have between one and four weeks of stock, with suppliers tending to hold higher levels of stock than retailers. For fresh produce, stock levels can sometimes be only 24 hours or less. As retail supply chains become more responsive, lead times are reducing and order frequencies are increasing.

Retailers are increasingly moving products into their stockless networks, managing products from across their ranges in the same way as the fresh and produce categories.

The impact of the current economic climate on consumer spending has helped drive this change as retailers look at ways of funding price cuts; supply chain operating costs and working capital tied up in inventory has provided such an opportunity.

Everyone has been moving to JIT to cut costs. So they don't have the capacity to immediately increase stocks, and doing so will be timeconsuming and costly. Price rises inevitable.

24 hours of fresh produce....

One to four weeks of other stuff. Which will be drastically reduced once people switch to panic mode.

This is a Tory MEP.

Treason is freedom of speech and everything on this thread. I guess that also means stockpiling is treasonous.

Cross post, red

How can anyone look at that and think it will be fine?

Yeah - grain yields will be down (winter crops OK but spring crops really suffering) and winter fodder is having to be fed to livestock as there isn’t enough in the grass.

Well will this madness end? The country is manoeuvring itself into a grave situation.

"Extreme loyalty to the EU" to be treated like Islamic jihadist terorists.

Did I miss hearing about all those Remainers planting bombs or beheading people ?

Sounds like treason to him is not actions, but beliefs

That is the very basis of a dictatorship - the state punishing people who have opposing views

Article first published in the Daily Telegraph, Sept 4, 1939.

Regional food controllers have been at work for many months and a great network of local voluntary committees has been established. The ration cards are all ready for distribution. Five groups of food are to come under the system:

Butchers’ meat.
Butter and margarine.
Bacon and ham.
Cooking fats.
Sugar.

There is no shortage or feared shortage in any of these commodities and the scheme is mainly designed to secure orderly marketing at a time when there are considerable movements among sections of the population.

The rationing scheme should prevent waste and temporary shortages locally.

Petrol supply rationed
Price to be 1s 6d a gallon
From Sept. 16 – 12 days hence – petrol is to be rationed.

The Secretary for Mines, Mr Geoffrey Lloyd, announced last night: “Petrol distributors throughout the country have arranged to pool all their resources and, after the individual brands still in stock at garages and service stations have been sold by then at the prices now ruling, one grade only of motor spirit will be supplied to the public.

“This spirit will be called ‘pool’ motor spirit and will be on sale ex-pump in England and Wales at 1s 6d per gallon. No change will be made in the price for the next 14 days at least. From tomorrow no further supplies of individual brands will be made to garages and service stations.

“For at least the same period of 14 days there will be no change in today’s bulk prices to those commercial concerns who receive their supplies direct. A rationing will be introduced as from Sept. 16, and tomorrow an announcement will be made informing the public how to secure their ration books.”

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/6086061/World-War-2-Food-rationing-plan-ready.html

Some thoughts on the above.

1. People lived and worked locally. Not so in 2018. Long commutes are common. The population is bigger. Much less public transport.
2. Re: The five food groups rationed in 1939. Look at the chart for how much we import/export today. We'd need to hugely reduce consumption and shortages would happen in a way that they didn't in 1939.

Its a much bigger undertaking and would require much larger shifts in lifestyle than in 1939.

Invoking the spirit of 1939 wouldn't work...

There is plenty of criticism of the EU in Europe, but underlying it is the acknowledgement that overall it is a good thing for stability. Any 2 people talking about their country/EU/whatever will have differing views but to deliberately remove your whole country from a stabilising influence is madness.
If you fall into the sea, you would cling to driftwood for 'security' even if it was not much. Clinging to a big bit of wood, disguised as a boat would be rather better.

Treason is freedom of speech and everything on this thread. I guess that also means stockpiling is treasonous.

Hey, I think you've outed surfer

"Extreme loyalty to the EU" to be treated like Islamic jihadist terorists.

Remember how Catholics were treated in "Gunpowder" last year ?

The talk of treason is terrifying. It really is.

So much for democracy, then.

I'm already on a 'list' somewhere.

So are all of you.

Anyway, Ian Paisley Junior not allowed in Parliament until 19th November. Would this give May reason to delay some crucial votes until then?