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Brexit

Westministenders: A Pickling Summer

983 replies

RedToothBrush · 18/07/2018 22:55

May has survived. The Turd Way has survived.

Whether this is true is another matter. The Turd Way was hijacked by the ERG who ripped it up and turned it from being a starting point to another ridiculous declaration of believing in Royal Unicorns. Rees-Smug has declared May LINO (Leader in Name Only) in tribute to BINO (Brexit in Name Only).

No one yet has grasped the consequences for NI. The backstop was absent from the White Paper except to say, it would never be used.

Johnson also in his commons resignation statement lives in a fantasy land, saying we had 2 and half years to get something in place for the Irish border. Except we don't because we don't have an agreed plan, we haven't hired the people to do it, there is no guarentee the way we are going that we will get a transition agreement agreed to afterall; its entirely dependent on us meeting certain criteria.

Even the Irish themselves haven't got to the point of admitting the possibility that there will be an Irish Border. Under WTO rules, members are legally required to secure their borders. If we are separate members to the EU we have to secure our border and they have to secure their border. In theory NI could be a separate member to the rest of the UK but this would breech the priniciple of a border in the Irish Sea.

No Deal has moved from being an option to being a distinct possibility.

The Trade Bill passed through the Commons unscathed with a dodgy pairing, the assistance of Labour rebels and the brewery tour organising skills of the LD and Labour whips despite the best efforts of Tory Rebels. It suggests the ERG have the numbers to force things but there still are no guarentees of anything.

We've had calls from Justine Greening for another referendum; despite it being obvious that the laws on referendums being ridiculously weak and just about everyone ignoring the findings of the electoral commision and the Leave Campaign's referal to the police. Even then the maximum penalties are wholly inadequate to prevent and deter electoral rigging.

We've had calls for a cross party government of National Unity. Which has been dismissed by Corbyn as an attempt at an establishment stitch up.

We've had the former Head of DexEu (the department who have refused the most FOI requests) and various ERG backbenchers (who said that publication of documents would damage the governments negotiations) ask for transparency and for draft DexEu documents to be published.

Ian Paisley Jr appears likely to be suspended from sitting in the HoC from 4th September for a month for breeching parliamentary standards, losing May one vital vote. She has however been bolstered by the resignation of John Woodcock from the Labour Party pledging his ongoing support of Brexit (he's been a Labour Rebel in the past). Plus there is the O'Mara Factor whereby the whole country could be at the mercy of whether Jared can be fucked to turn up to work at all or not.

There are growing signs out there for increasing support for EEA though despite it all.

The Trade Bill now goes to the Lords, where there is suggestion they might throw it out, after the Speaker declared they had the power to do so as it was a Supply Bill rather than a Money Bill thanks to the Amendments the ERG supplied.

All the while jobs are lost and companies are abandoning the UK and NI has had the most violence in years, but no one cares because Brexit means Brexit and its all worth it.

And finally, when being questioned by the Liason Select Committee, May said that 70 Technical Notices for Households and Businesses in the Event of No Deal would be published in August and September.

The country is in a total pickle.

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OlennasWimple · 23/07/2018 16:47

The Telegraph comment is also interesting, in terms of how everything affects everything else. The comment at the bottom about apparently not having the laws to bring these two to justice here but trying to put former soldiers on trial is of course a reference to those ex-soldiers who are accused of acting illegally / committing atrocities in Northern Ireland pre-GFA...

BigChocFrenzy · 23/07/2018 18:45

That of course is another issue with the death penalty:

It would, in natural justice, have to apply to soldiers, police officers, intelligence officers who commit murder,
especially of innocent demonstrators or civil rights activists.

If some ex-squaddies are worried now about being charged with murders they allegedly committed in NI ...

DGRossetti · 23/07/2018 18:48

It would, in natural justice

Thank God we don't have natural justice then, eh ?

BigChocFrenzy · 23/07/2018 18:58

During the Troubles, the NI Secretary of State, Tory ones especially, would throw a soldier overboard when things got fraught.
I can imagine the Atlantic Bridge Tories, desperate for a trade deal / shadow 51st state status, agreeing to send a British soldier for a US show trial, so a POTUS can gain credit with the Irish American lobby.

Never forget that Trump, the Brexiters' bestie, attended at least one Sinn Fein / IRA fundraiser in New York, with Gerry Adams. While bombs were going off in London in the 1990s.

Brexiters are very tolerant to those who fund terror against the UK
.. so long as they are white / orange

SusanWalker · 23/07/2018 20:20

Caught a bit of the debate in the HOC this afternoon. Michael Fallon suggesting that if the actions of Javid wrt the Beatles is changeable in the ECHR then we should be thinking of leaving the ECHR.

Create a situation where the ECHR is refusing to allow the UK to something we know a lot of people (leavers) will support, then start making noises about how our sovereignty is being challenged and ......... Well we all know by now how that goes.

SwedishEdith · 23/07/2018 20:26

Well Fallon might be but Andrew Mitchell on C4News was not supportive of Javid. Nor Grieve in HoC - so, hopefully, another issue to split the Tories.

DGRossetti · 23/07/2018 20:48

It would, in natural justice, have to apply to soldiers, police officers, intelligence officers who commit murder,

also, what of the hangman ?

Icantreachthepretzels · 23/07/2018 21:34

I spent the whole of SusanWalker's post thinking that Michael Fallon was Tim Farron. I was very confused.

mathanxiety · 23/07/2018 22:12

..when does a mass insurrection become a civil war?

It won't be so much a case of a civil war as a case of mass civic unrest, looting, rioting, hooliganism and mass criminality that will lead to the establishment of a right wing government with huge support.

The mass criminality/hooliganism/street fights/rioting will be met by government forces - police, army reserves, civil defence - but also private security contractors/militias that the government will hire in preparation for chaos.

I am thinking of the sort of companies that already run detention and deportation centres and who are answerable to nobody. A British version of the American Blackstone, if not a British division of Blackstone. It is a worldwide operation after all. (Whatever it may be called in its current incarnation).

I cast my mind back to the unrest in NI over the Twelfth and the unusual blocking of roads around the airport and a hospital by well organised masked men, and the police response in a situation of widespread chaos (bonfires, crowds in the streets, emergency services stretched to cope, a tense atmosphere in certain areas of certain cities) and I wonder about the unrest in Derry too. I keep on thinking it was all a dry run, a test situation, war games.

The thing about a period of mass unrest, looting and lawlessness is that such conditions are ideal for the immediate imposition of a curfew and other restrictions on personal freedom, the requirement to present ID, and also the suspension of habeas corpus. All of which would be supported by the braying classes whose mantra is 'give them a fair trial and hang them'.

The groups who would help a right wing authoritarian government by establishing the conditions where they would sweep in with draconian measures 'in the interest of public safety' are already up and running. In NI there are the usual suspects and they have shown themselves to be quite brazen. In Britain you have the Veterans for Brexit, the EDL, the Tommy-Robinson-rent-a-march brigade, and more.

Peregrina · 23/07/2018 22:16

Those wealthy Tories who want out of the ECHR don't know any history and don't know that British judges were instrumental in drawing up the rules, despite the expensive education said Tories have almost invariably had.

More to the point, times can change. When Hitler was mid rant in the 1930s how many Germans who flocked to follow him thought that he would be committing suicide in a bunker, to avoid being shot by the Allied Armies, ten years later? If we are on the winning side, we always think it will stay that way.

mathanxiety · 23/07/2018 22:17

Mrs8, if you go abroad you could be swapping one problem for another thats all imho. You just don't know.

Let me go full on dystopian about if you go abroad, to illustrate the point.

I suspect anyone fleeing the aftermath of Brexit would be able to claim political asylum.

mathanxiety · 23/07/2018 22:23

And if I had a dependent who needed, for instance, epilepsy medication, or asthma medication, I would be making plans to leave.

I spoke to someone today whose friend is a doctor in a senior position in a hospital in a major English urban area. One of her remits is to plan for Brexit's impact on the hospital in its medical function. The outlook is bleak apparently. The same person I spoke to has a friend who is an Irish 'following spouse', with the main earner a senior UK civil servant, who recently got his Irish passport based on a grandparent born in Ireland who left at age 2. This civil servant is ripping his hair out at the obtuseness/head in sand behaviour all around him.

mathanxiety · 23/07/2018 22:38

We had the finest Navy in the world, with ships built from British oak. The ships eventually got sunk, and we didn't replant for new trees

No, because Ireland was at one time covered in oak forests. It isn't any more.

"Cad a dheanfaimid feasta gan adhmad. . ."
("what shall do from now on without trees. . .")
The first line of a lament for the destruction of the trees on the historic estate of Kilcash, a symbol of the raiding of Irish natural resources for British industry and the British Imperial adventure that denuded the forests.

Apileofballyhoo · 23/07/2018 22:48

Glad somebody else pointed out about the "British" oak...

OlennasWimple · 23/07/2018 22:52

The 1951 convention on refugees defines a refugee as "A person who owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion, is outside the country of his nationality and is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country; or who, not having a nationality and being outside the country of his former habitual residence as a result of such events, is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to return to it."

i guess being a Remainer might possibly count as a "political opinion" for the purposes of the Convention, but proving persecution would be difficult. Unless we are assuming that different ration cards would be handed out to those who voted to leave and to stay, or similar Hmm

mathanxiety · 23/07/2018 22:57

Annandale
That is an unbelievably cynical move by Javid. Float a policy designed to appeal to the worst elements of your party or a group you think are ripe for the picking, but which is legally, morally or practically impossible and which is likely to make society worse. Outrage from those who know it's impossible. You back down, claiming you've been forced to do it by the metropolitan elite. That's what Gove and Bojo thought would happen to the Leave vote. That's what Trump does.

I don't trust Sajid Javid.

I agree with all of that, and I suspect it is part of the priming for the hard right period of ascendancy that will follow Brexit and Brexit chaos that is going on.

There is a rolling stone gathering momentum here.

The death penalty statement opens the door a crack. It establishes a different level of discourse, with different norms assumed than those that have been accepted up to now.

The backing down angers the people who are already furious about 'political correctness' and who are willing to actually take their anger to the streets.

Motheroffourdragons · 23/07/2018 22:58

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

mathanxiety · 23/07/2018 23:03

commonarewe Mon 23-Jul-18 14:56:19

This is why the non-populists are losing the culture war so badly - permitting the execution of terrorist traitors is an unequivocally popular policy with the vast swathe of the voting public who are not bleeding-heart loonies.

Why not just hand out pitchforks and be done with all pretence of civilisation?

We could burn witches too.

And books we don't like.

RedToothBrush · 24/07/2018 06:56

Sean Jones @ seanjonesqc
Thread: How to bring about populist authoritarian regime: a to do list /1
1. If you’re going to be a populist, you need a populus.
- look for the angriest members of the dominant racial/cultural group;
- look especially for the people who revel in anger and embrace hate
2. Make them angrier.
- Tell them they were once great
- Tell them they have been betrayed
- Never stop telling them this
- Polarisation is key
3. Pick someone to blame.
- look for members of a vulnerable racial/cultural minority
- suggest they are advancing their material or cultural interests at the majority’s expense.
- promise you will defend the hierarchy and punish the minority.
4. Now focus supporter rage at those who might stand in the way.
- It may be hard to persuade very many people that a disadvantaged minority has real power.
- Suggest that the minority interests are being advanced at supporters’ expense by an elite or “the establishment”
5. Define “elite” or “establishment” to mean anyone who stands in the way.
6. Use the “elite’s” attempts at virtue against them
- Any efforts to meet the needs of the minority or to secure equality should be cited as evidence of the elite’s determined betrayal.
- Any effort to contradict you is stifling debate.
7. Dismantling the hurdles: International
- Any degree of international oversight is to be resisted.
- Supranational bodies are to be portrayed an affront to the populus’s sovereignty.
- Again, their insistence on equality is evidence of conspiracy.
8. Domestic politics:
- Discredit politics as a pursuit.
- The message is that politicians are corrupt careerists.
- Look for politicians to scramble for endorsement, through fear or ambition
9. The Law:
- Undermine the rule of law
- Message: Laws reflect elite interests only
- Judges are your enemies
- Courts lack independence and enforce the establishment’s will
- Discredit judicial review as political activism
10. The Press/Media
- Supporters should be encouraged to reject the press/media as corrupt, politicised and serving the interests of those who oppose.
- News is fake unless it comes from, or agrees with, you.
- Insist Press is suppressing the concerns of supporters and use coverage intended as “balance” to normalise the message and reach new supporters
- Counter criticism with outrage and if necessary lie
-Confuse those wanting facts and loosen their grip on their faith in the Press.
11. Language
- Destroy words that paint you in a bad light. Find new, untainted, ways of describing your position.
- E.g. “Racist” is over-used and has lost all meaning.
- E.g. “Anti-Semite” is just cover for a political attack.
- E.g. “White” becomes “indigenous people”
12. Unexpected allies
- If opponents want to help, let them.
- If they embrace polarisation, rejoice.
- If they rail against politicians, the Press, the judges, that works for you even if the criticisms are made from a different perspective.
Footnotes:
If deflecting criticism on grounds that it is stifling debate doesn’t work, try:
“Disagreeing with me shows you lack respect for those on whose behalf I speak”; or the related
“Disagreeing with me is exactly why so many people hold the views I do.”

I decided.
I don't like populism.
Can I have a time machine for Christmas please.

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ConstantlyCold · 24/07/2018 07:29

Great post there red there seems to be a move towards authoritarianism. It scares me, I can’t leave the U.K. and even if I could this authoritarianism seems to be everywhere.
It scares me.

SingingBabooshkaBadly · 24/07/2018 08:03

I decided.
I don't like populism.
Can I have a time machine for Christmas please

Seconded. These days I’ve found I’m almost feeling nostalgic for the good old days immediately post referendum when the worst I was dreading was a decades long return to the level of shitness we had in this country in the 1970s. Angry Sad

BigChocFrenzy · 24/07/2018 08:20

Incisive thread from Sean Jones, red
Exactly nailed how populism (fascist populism especially) starts and grows, how it is organised

  • usually some people behind the scenes planning to make a bundle of money in the New World Order, or just by looting a now vulnerable country
RedToothBrush · 24/07/2018 08:29

Letters to the FT.

Former chairman of Lloyds

Westministenders: A Pickling Summer
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RedToothBrush · 24/07/2018 08:32

Teachers are getting their pay rise.

Nursery kids on low income are looking like they are about to get cuts

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/e94c435c-8ec0-11e8-a10e-53179592953e
Tories face ‘milk snatcher’ jibes with nursery cuts

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TheElementsSong · 24/07/2018 08:35

Exactly nailed how populism (fascist populism especially) starts and grows

And Jeremy Corbyn is the other side of the same corroded coin.

twitter.com/GuitarMoog/status/1021553951978729472

@GuitarMoog

Great, just what we need from the leader of the official opposition right now. Lies about the economic ‘benefits’ of Brexit, Trumpist slogans, and a bit of anti-immigration rhetoric for good measure.

We get enough of them from the ERG and Government FFS.