Meet the Other Phone. Protection built in.

Meet the Other Phone.
Protection built in.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Brexit

Westministenders: A Pickling Summer

983 replies

RedToothBrush · 18/07/2018 22:55

May has survived. The Turd Way has survived.

Whether this is true is another matter. The Turd Way was hijacked by the ERG who ripped it up and turned it from being a starting point to another ridiculous declaration of believing in Royal Unicorns. Rees-Smug has declared May LINO (Leader in Name Only) in tribute to BINO (Brexit in Name Only).

No one yet has grasped the consequences for NI. The backstop was absent from the White Paper except to say, it would never be used.

Johnson also in his commons resignation statement lives in a fantasy land, saying we had 2 and half years to get something in place for the Irish border. Except we don't because we don't have an agreed plan, we haven't hired the people to do it, there is no guarentee the way we are going that we will get a transition agreement agreed to afterall; its entirely dependent on us meeting certain criteria.

Even the Irish themselves haven't got to the point of admitting the possibility that there will be an Irish Border. Under WTO rules, members are legally required to secure their borders. If we are separate members to the EU we have to secure our border and they have to secure their border. In theory NI could be a separate member to the rest of the UK but this would breech the priniciple of a border in the Irish Sea.

No Deal has moved from being an option to being a distinct possibility.

The Trade Bill passed through the Commons unscathed with a dodgy pairing, the assistance of Labour rebels and the brewery tour organising skills of the LD and Labour whips despite the best efforts of Tory Rebels. It suggests the ERG have the numbers to force things but there still are no guarentees of anything.

We've had calls from Justine Greening for another referendum; despite it being obvious that the laws on referendums being ridiculously weak and just about everyone ignoring the findings of the electoral commision and the Leave Campaign's referal to the police. Even then the maximum penalties are wholly inadequate to prevent and deter electoral rigging.

We've had calls for a cross party government of National Unity. Which has been dismissed by Corbyn as an attempt at an establishment stitch up.

We've had the former Head of DexEu (the department who have refused the most FOI requests) and various ERG backbenchers (who said that publication of documents would damage the governments negotiations) ask for transparency and for draft DexEu documents to be published.

Ian Paisley Jr appears likely to be suspended from sitting in the HoC from 4th September for a month for breeching parliamentary standards, losing May one vital vote. She has however been bolstered by the resignation of John Woodcock from the Labour Party pledging his ongoing support of Brexit (he's been a Labour Rebel in the past). Plus there is the O'Mara Factor whereby the whole country could be at the mercy of whether Jared can be fucked to turn up to work at all or not.

There are growing signs out there for increasing support for EEA though despite it all.

The Trade Bill now goes to the Lords, where there is suggestion they might throw it out, after the Speaker declared they had the power to do so as it was a Supply Bill rather than a Money Bill thanks to the Amendments the ERG supplied.

All the while jobs are lost and companies are abandoning the UK and NI has had the most violence in years, but no one cares because Brexit means Brexit and its all worth it.

And finally, when being questioned by the Liason Select Committee, May said that 70 Technical Notices for Households and Businesses in the Event of No Deal would be published in August and September.

The country is in a total pickle.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
29
BigChocFrenzy · 23/07/2018 12:30

Many reasons I wouldn't expect the RoI to suffer the same kind of problems as the UK, to the same extent:

  • You won't be facing angry Brexiters, EDL and other fascist groups marching & rioting far less chance of civil disorder, because the country is not politically split down the middle in a Brexit culture war. No danger of JRM as PM, or even the (very slight in the UK) chance of a fascist strongman

Also:

  • The EU would go all out to help an innocent victim, much sympathy here for the RoI
  • It's much easier for them to supply 6 million than 65 million
  • A much smaller population that is better able to feed itself from its own farming / agriculture sector.
  • In any power shortage, EU members are prioritised re connectors - the Uk was originally one of the countries insisting on that !
  • The RoI started planning for this a long time ago and has far better contingency plans The politicians don't have to hide their guilt over causing Brexit and have just concentrated on planning, in cooperation with the other 26 EU members.
Somerville · 23/07/2018 12:30

Is Theresa May talking about no-deal planning to try to scare the EU into believing we'd walk away without a deal? Sounds counter-productive to me.

My biggest long-term concern for my family is that we're overexposed to the south-east property market. But there's nothing I can do about it, short of kicking out the tenants at DH's old place to sell it, which would be wrong. Or downsizing from my house which is only just about big enough for our large family anyway.
DH wants us to go skiing at the end of March and cross our fingers that we can't come home. Hmm Hmm

BigChocFrenzy · 23/07/2018 12:32

I'd suggest anyone who can, consider adding an extra chunk of holiday from mid-March to Easter,
even if it means one family member joining later

Motheroffourdragons · 23/07/2018 12:39

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

DarlingNikita · 23/07/2018 12:40

You trust the UK government to allow money to leave the UK like that ?

I wouldn't.

What do you mean? How would they stop my money leaving the UK?

Is Theresa May talking about no-deal planning to try to scare the EU into believing we'd walk away without a deal?
It's a good point. Maybe all this is bluster. I doubt it'll work though.

54321go · 23/07/2018 12:48

@Somerville
Won't he feel a bit silly still wearing his skis in July?
Syria is a developed country and is still at war. The people have adapted and live underground. They are being bombed by several 'combatants'.
It seems the UK government and major opposition have gone on a major 'trip' for some reason (for the last 2 years) but at least at present the UK is not at war with anyone.
In terms of food, it is a matter of dealing with legalities but food exists from Europe and elsewhere so it will be down to price, not availability.

54321go · 23/07/2018 12:51

You have to remember even a 'no deal' IS still a deal.
Any outcome relating to 29 March is a deal of some sort. The only real question is 'how deep and wide is the shit'?

54321go · 23/07/2018 12:53

You can argue that it is currently at ankle level or rapidly heading towards knee level but we are already in it, it will take a few years to get back to where we were the day before voting day 2016.

DGRossetti · 23/07/2018 13:14

What do you mean? How would they stop my money leaving the UK?

Just pass a directive that money held in UK banks can only be transferred to here. Job done.

Remember those Henry VIII powers ? You might yet see them in action.

Stop and search for UK currency for people leaving at ports. No one allowed more than £1,000. (I've seen this done in Kenya with Kenyan currency in the 1990s).

Bear in mind, Hitler wasn't stopped by masses of middle-class people insisting "They can't do that", "They won't do that".

Even on this very thread, people are reporting problems that shouldn't be happening around Irish citizenship and the Home Office.

If you are going to cast the runes, then why be shy ? Think as dark as you can, and try to build up. If you start at the top, you'd have a lot of digging to do.

Incidentally, on that trip to Kenya, because Air France were on strike Grin I flew Sabina (long gone) and thus had to stop in Kigali. Briefly. Have you ever sat on a plane as it is surrounded by armed soldiers ? Two weeks later Rwanda was ankle deep in blood Sad. You won't avoid the horrors of what mankind is capable by staying cheery.

DGRossetti · 23/07/2018 13:18

I think the UK government is trying to be clever and welding "no deal" and "brexit" together for the search engines.

I've noted elsewhere the total lack of interest in Brexit in France and Italy.

I mean to the extent that you wouldn't know it was happening.

But then Barniers statement on Friday - to a 20% capacity audience - should have signalled that to. Do JRM, Hunt, et al think anyone knows who they are past Dover ?

DarlingNikita · 23/07/2018 13:18

Bear in mind, Hitler wasn't stopped by masses of middle-class people insisting "They can't do that", "They won't do that".

I wasn't saying they 'can't', I was asking about the practicalities of how they can.

Thanks for explaining.

54321go · 23/07/2018 13:20

You weren't allowed to carry any Russian currency OUT of Russia. The security guys didn't really care what else you were carrying but cash was a 'no no'.

RosinaAlmaviva · 23/07/2018 13:24

The companies giving warnings? This seems the most likely.

Yes. Some, like Arla or Sainsburys, have openly warned, others are choosing the leak/prevaricate route, but their best hope of avoiding no deal is in getting the general public to realise that no deal is not in fact better than a bad deal. And as Red says, they'll have to shout very loudly indeed to be heard above the champagne corks popping on the terrace of the Future Unicorn Owners Club.

Can we trust e.g. Amazon? No, they have tax-related ulterior motives. But we can trust Amazon to be Amazon, that is, to put their own profits first. They could make money very short-term out of no-deal, as people frantically order in supplies, but longer-term they'd be screwed. More than any other company, they understand the 21st century obsession with instant gratification. Their business model for the last few years has been about shifting everyone onto Prime and promising to get your stuff to you now. Last week I put in a Prime order which was supposed to arrive today and I've already had it for 24 hours. I remember another order arriving within hours on a snowy evening in March when everything else was being turned upside down by the Beast from the East. And they have a constant stream of goods coming from warehouses in the EU. The prospect of disruption in supply lines is troubling indeed. We are no longer the wartime population who drew the black-out curtains and had a sing-song round the piano. We are a nation of toddlers who have a full-on meltdown if a tv episode takes more than a few seconds to download.

Amazon trying to raise the alarm isn't bad though. It's a positive thing if the interests of a powerful multinational happen to coincide with those of the people of the UK. Because we can't say the same of our government. The Tories have not been the party of law and order for some time.

I do think though we have to be careful not to over panic.

Let the unicorn owners panic. We will keep calm and carry on prepping.

DGRossetti · 23/07/2018 13:24

In fact the UK already has an infrastructure to control capital in the money laundering regs. Regs that banks etc are already trained to obey very seriously (since it can mean jail time if they don't).

How did Gilead get started ?

54321go · 23/07/2018 13:28

Kind of interesting, but a French friend I was visiting last week was interested by the BBC report on one of Mr Macron's security staff 'beating up' a protester a while ago. It was not on the French news.
Otherwise not much is reported on Brexit, although to be fair you can't say much other than the UK are still being 'arses' and haven't bothered to read the rules yet. Here is some twinkly 'on hold' music to listen to while we wait.

RosinaAlmaviva · 23/07/2018 13:48

Otherwise not much is reported on Brexit, although to be fair you can't say much other than the UK are still being 'arses' and haven't bothered to read the rules yet. Here is some twinkly 'on hold' music to listen to while we wait.

Grin Yes, that's about the size of it. I'm weary with it myself so certainly couldn't blame the French for losing interest.

I am beginning to think that although we built a vast empire, it was in spite of our qualities, not because of them. Remember the Circumlocution Office in Dickens? They would be in their element with Brexit.

RedToothBrush · 23/07/2018 13:50

Who is 'they' here, Red? Government? (surely not; May seems to still be deluded enough to think a couple of ministers going on a jolly to other countries will be enough to pull all this back). The 'opposition? (don't make me laugh). The companies giving warnings? This seems the most likely.

Companies? Yes. Opposition? Of course they will if they get political mileage out of it. May? Strangely enough its her who started this all off. So yes. Whether wittingly or unwittingly. There are scenarios in which she might want to deliberately do this from a strategic point of view.

Remember is May negogiting with the EU or her own party?

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 23/07/2018 13:52

Steven Swinford @Steven_Swinford
Sajid Javid facing big backlash from Tory ministers this morning over decision to abandon opposition to death penalty in case of 'Beatles'. One minister: 'This completely cuts across 25 years of Government policy, it should be rescinded today. It's immoral and unacceptable'

Javid will back track having won a lot of support amongst the swivle eyed loons.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 23/07/2018 13:59

Jeremy Hunt @Jeremy_Hunt
Excellent discussion with German Foreign Minister @HeikoMaas about the unintended geopolitical consequences of No Deal. Only person rejoicing would be Putin...

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Upping the ante just a tad to the ERG. No deal/WTO = Kremlin win.

OP posts:
annandale · 23/07/2018 14:11

That is an unbelievably cynical move by Javid. Float a policy designed to appeal to the worst elements of your party or a group you think are ripe for the picking, but which is legally, morally or practically impossible and which is likely to make society worse. Outrage from those who know it's impossible. You back down, claiming you've been forced to do it by the metropolitan elite. That's what Gove and Bojo thought would happen to the Leave vote. That's what Trump does.

I don't trust Sajid Javid.

ChardonnaysPrettySister · 23/07/2018 14:15

I think dropping the opposition to the death penalty for the two terror suspects is wrong.

UnnecessaryFennel · 23/07/2018 14:19

Are we surprised? Cherry-picking and ignoring the laws of the land for populist support when it suits them is what this govt is all about.

RedToothBrush · 23/07/2018 14:33

Annadale, its not really a huge surprise given the one constant between Leaver voters was support for the death penalty. Javid had an opportunity to signal he is 'a strong man' and against those Muslim terrorists (don't forget he is from a Muslim background and this will be a disadvantage to him as a Tory leadership hopeful).

The 1922 committee have apparently decided that they will not let MPs stitch up another leadership contest without going to the membership.

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 23/07/2018 14:37

54321 No deal can indeed be no deal whatsoever
i.e. not signing a Withdrawal Agreement, or any lesser agreement with the EU to ameliorate some effects of Brexit, such as airline flights.

That is quite possible with what RNorth calls an "accidental" Brexit
which could happen if the UK govt holds out to DD's "59th minute of the last day" for an EU cave-in … which of course doesn't happen
i.e. a major UK miscalculation and over-playing their hand.
A cockup, not planned.

If that happened, I'd expect frantic begging within a week for a few minimum deals, e.g. flights

After any kind of no-deal Brexit, I expect the UK to be begging for a very basic deal / transition period within a few weeks, from a much weaker position.
Even then, I expect it'll be spun as the Uk extracting final concessions from the EU.

So, maybe I'm optimistic, but I expect anyone going away for 2 months, maybe 3 months, will miss the really bad bits
and just return to a rather diminished UK, but one that has resumed functioning.

DGRossetti · 23/07/2018 14:37

I think dropping the opposition to the death penalty for the two terror suspects is wrong.

Death penalty for suspects is it now. Was that a typo, or are you thick as mince ?

Personally I think trying to reintroduce the death penalty by proxy is far worse. And a tad cowardly (so right up the alley of BoJo-Javid then).

How many Greenham common protesters would have been executed as "terrorists" ?