Meet the Other Phone. Protection built in.

Meet the Other Phone.
Protection built in.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Brexit

Westministenders: A Pickling Summer

983 replies

RedToothBrush · 18/07/2018 22:55

May has survived. The Turd Way has survived.

Whether this is true is another matter. The Turd Way was hijacked by the ERG who ripped it up and turned it from being a starting point to another ridiculous declaration of believing in Royal Unicorns. Rees-Smug has declared May LINO (Leader in Name Only) in tribute to BINO (Brexit in Name Only).

No one yet has grasped the consequences for NI. The backstop was absent from the White Paper except to say, it would never be used.

Johnson also in his commons resignation statement lives in a fantasy land, saying we had 2 and half years to get something in place for the Irish border. Except we don't because we don't have an agreed plan, we haven't hired the people to do it, there is no guarentee the way we are going that we will get a transition agreement agreed to afterall; its entirely dependent on us meeting certain criteria.

Even the Irish themselves haven't got to the point of admitting the possibility that there will be an Irish Border. Under WTO rules, members are legally required to secure their borders. If we are separate members to the EU we have to secure our border and they have to secure their border. In theory NI could be a separate member to the rest of the UK but this would breech the priniciple of a border in the Irish Sea.

No Deal has moved from being an option to being a distinct possibility.

The Trade Bill passed through the Commons unscathed with a dodgy pairing, the assistance of Labour rebels and the brewery tour organising skills of the LD and Labour whips despite the best efforts of Tory Rebels. It suggests the ERG have the numbers to force things but there still are no guarentees of anything.

We've had calls from Justine Greening for another referendum; despite it being obvious that the laws on referendums being ridiculously weak and just about everyone ignoring the findings of the electoral commision and the Leave Campaign's referal to the police. Even then the maximum penalties are wholly inadequate to prevent and deter electoral rigging.

We've had calls for a cross party government of National Unity. Which has been dismissed by Corbyn as an attempt at an establishment stitch up.

We've had the former Head of DexEu (the department who have refused the most FOI requests) and various ERG backbenchers (who said that publication of documents would damage the governments negotiations) ask for transparency and for draft DexEu documents to be published.

Ian Paisley Jr appears likely to be suspended from sitting in the HoC from 4th September for a month for breeching parliamentary standards, losing May one vital vote. She has however been bolstered by the resignation of John Woodcock from the Labour Party pledging his ongoing support of Brexit (he's been a Labour Rebel in the past). Plus there is the O'Mara Factor whereby the whole country could be at the mercy of whether Jared can be fucked to turn up to work at all or not.

There are growing signs out there for increasing support for EEA though despite it all.

The Trade Bill now goes to the Lords, where there is suggestion they might throw it out, after the Speaker declared they had the power to do so as it was a Supply Bill rather than a Money Bill thanks to the Amendments the ERG supplied.

All the while jobs are lost and companies are abandoning the UK and NI has had the most violence in years, but no one cares because Brexit means Brexit and its all worth it.

And finally, when being questioned by the Liason Select Committee, May said that 70 Technical Notices for Households and Businesses in the Event of No Deal would be published in August and September.

The country is in a total pickle.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
29
RedToothBrush · 22/07/2018 10:20

And it further drives a wedge and distrust of government at the same time

OP posts:
DGRossetti · 22/07/2018 10:25

I do indeed remember the SDP.

As do I. The butt of many jokes - in particular the "NOT ! 1982" NTNOCN "annual". Probably be pilloried today, but they listed the various spoof leaders with a note as to which letters they couldn't pronounce. (I hope Bill Rogers took it in good heart).

Thing is the SDP had arch Brexiteer David Owen (do people still swoon ?). So they aren't a good example of a centrist anti-Brexit party.

Because Brexit appears to be an independent quality to other political affiliations, it's entirely possible that every party - Labour, LibDems, Tories - even the SNP - could be split into pro/anti EU camps.

If the UK had a history of government by evidence, we could work towards something. But the UK doesn't, never has, and never will do anything remotely like policies based on fact. Even on this very site, there are discussions ignoring scientific evidence in favour of "da feelz". Sex education policy (for example). Or drugs.

BigChocFrenzy · 22/07/2018 11:05

JRM on C4
not answering the question about whether he would resign as an MP
if he were proved wong about Brexit bringing "glowing" economic opportunities :

"We won't know the full economic consequences for a very long time, we really won't...
The overwhelming opportunity for Brexit is over the next 50 years".
Shock Confused
um, most of his audience, most current voter, will be dead then.

So if they never see those glowing opportunities, it'll be because during their lifetime us still too soon to tell …

BigChocFrenzy · 22/07/2018 11:08

How well will people cope with a 50 year wait for sunny uplands ...

Half of UK adults are financially vulnerable, City watchdog finds (2017)

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/oct/18/uk-adults-financially-vulnerable-fca-interest-rate-rise

50% of adults (25.6 million people) “display one or more characteristics that signal their potential vulnerability”.

deep generational divide,
with just 1% of over-65s defining themselves as “in difficulty”
compared with 13% of 25- to 34-year-olds.

one in six people unable to cope with a £50 increase in monthly bills,
according to a survey of Britain’s personal finances by the City regulator.

The Financial Conduct Authority’s biggest ever survey of households found that 4.1 million people are already in serious financial difficulty,
falling behind with bills and credit card payments,
with 25- to 34-year-olds the most over-indebted.

BigChocFrenzy · 22/07/2018 11:12

Varadkhar's policy on Brexit, standing up to the UK, is obviously supported by the Irish public,
contrary to what some Uk Brexiters and Brexit press claim.

The continued high popularity of the Fianna Gail govt, which came to power in 2011,
is actually unusual,
because they have traditionally been the #2 party behind Fianna Fail and not won 2nd terms of govt.

Latest STimes poll (compared to 5 weeks ago)
FG 34 (+3)
FF 21 (-3)
SF 22 (-2)

FG have always been less nationalist than FF and very pro-EU, although no RoI party is now Eurosceptic afaik
SF overtaking FF is interesting too - a sea change there since 2008 ?

SwedishEdith · 22/07/2018 11:14

That's not impossible I guess but there is still a lot of clear blue political water between "one nation" Tory remainers like Clarke, Grieve and Soubry and centre left Labour remainers like Cooper, Lammy and Umunna. Very hard to see them in the same party even if they can make common cause over brexit.

On the Last Leg this week, Soubry kept going on about times in the HoC when she's thinking 'Chuka's looking lovely today'. I suspect there's more talking between them than we realise. There's a lot of clear blue water between Hoey and the rest of the Labour party.

I had an SDP MP for a brief time. They've, annoyingly, taken the best name for an alternative party.

SwedishEdith · 22/07/2018 11:18

This is a rather disturbing account of HO Presenting Officers.

Emma DeSouza
‏*@EmmandJDeSouza*

Retweeted Conor James McKinney

'This is wild stuff @ukhomeoffice not acceptting Irish citizens have settled status. Right to reside in UK is subject to EU law and requires evidence?! Pretty sure those rights are protected under the CTA and Ireland Act #GFA #EU #citizensrights #Brexit'

Thread here.

twitter.com/EmmandJDeSouza/status/1020409650678829056

falcon5 · 22/07/2018 11:23

Just jumping on to say thank you for advice received 2 (?) Threads back .... sorry I disappeared I went away to work on site for a week "on the continent" came back and it had all moved on a lot. I'm doing the MP small business letter and booking Irish embassy appointment. As you were...

Somerville · 22/07/2018 11:27

not acceptting Irish citizens have settled status.

Fucking hell. I think I have to admit DH's instincts on this were right and let him get the kids British passports.

Somerville · 22/07/2018 11:30

... Doing so renders the GFA, to me personally, dead in the water. I expect a surge in nationalist activity off the back of these warnings that Irish-born-in-NI people could be rendered stateless.

BigChocFrenzy · 22/07/2018 11:32

Andrew Adonis@Andrew_Adonis
Remain 54%, Leave 46% - Sunday Times poll today.
Here in Northern Ireland it’s now +70% Remain wih only the DUP pro-Leave
- on a false prospectus which claims to be in favour of soft Brexit in Belfast while voting hard Brexit at Westminster

BigChocFrenzy · 22/07/2018 11:34

As Leavers - both the public AND politicians AND bureacrats - realise that their no-deal Brexit will be a disaster for them too,
expect them to vent their anger against obvious targets ... like Irish people and other E27 citizens in the UK

DarlingNikita · 22/07/2018 11:35

Re the bilateral negotiations. I thought the Chequers deal was officially dead, since the ERG revolt and the amendments. Have I misunderstood?

In any case, hapless ministers being sent on a fucking roadshow over their summer holidays is a far cry from 'They'll be queuing up to do deals with us.'

BigChocFrenzy · 22/07/2018 11:37

I've always thought that Brexit could lead to hostility against Ireland and Irish people,
and hence maybe to bombings in the City

  • the IRA and splinter groups learned exactly what brings the UK govt to heel and its not ordinary pleb deaths:
it's hitting where UK Ltd earns a big chunk of its money
BigChocFrenzy · 22/07/2018 11:41

The Chequers deal now has those 4 amendments bolted on and remains official govt policy in that form.

The govt are saying no more concessions to the EU, while the ERG - and most Tory party members - are saying even that goes too far and they demand no-deal.
May is in deep trouble and the Party Conference in September will be dangerous politically for her.

placemats · 22/07/2018 12:12

It's Fine Gael Big Choc

Fianna Fáil.

placemats · 22/07/2018 12:12

Sorry don't mean to be a pedant. And I do like your posts.

BigChocFrenzy · 22/07/2018 12:13

Sorry, typed too quickly - I really know that Blush

BigChocFrenzy · 22/07/2018 12:17

BREXIT: Heading to a deal or no deal while UK politics implodes

Excellent analysis of status and options, from Scottish Centre on European Relations

concludes with:
""There is no easy escape route for the UK from its turbulent Brexit path
– and the English populist genie that the 2016 referendum let out will not easily go back in its bottle.

https://www.scer.scot/database/ident-8087

BigChocFrenzy · 22/07/2018 12:52

ERG shop steward Steve Baker is a hardcore born-again Christian,
baptised by full-body immersion in the sea off the Cornish coast

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2018/07/meet-steve-baker-brexiteers-shop-steward

“We’re all sinful and fallen. That’s the problem with this world, isn’t it?”

which may explain the desire for a "Sackcloth and ashes" punishment Brexit for the country

SwedishEdith · 22/07/2018 13:10

I love Gavin Esler and James Mates on Twitter atm. JM appears to hate Nick Timothy.

Re: Johnson not moving out of his FO flat.

Gavin Esler
@gavinesler

By resigning as Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson made himself “intentionally homeless” and there is no reason why taxpayers should provide him with social housing.

Tanith · 22/07/2018 13:10

Interesting you say that, BigChocFrenzy.
Our retired neighbours are devout Baptists and are die-hard Brexiters, too.

I have been handed tracts that compare the EU to the Revelation and the rise of Satan.
I’ve also seen one that demonises Muslims as a war-addicted people trying to wipe out Christianity.

They firmly believe this is part of God’s Plan.

SwedishEdith · 22/07/2018 13:17

www.ft.com/content/d615b792-8c1c-11e8-b18d-0181731a0340

Jacob Rees-Mogg’s fund house launches second Irish fund.

DarlingNikita · 22/07/2018 13:20

Thanks, BigChoc; that makes sense.

likeylurkey · 22/07/2018 13:22

Delurking to post this
www.sussex.ac.uk/webteam/gateway/file.php?name=foodbrexitreport-langmillstonemarsden-july2017pdf.pdf&site=25

It was published a year ago, and is very wide-ranging. Nobody in Government will have taken any notice.

Those interested can read the whole thing, but I'll post the bullet points from towards the end.

o The specific politics of Brexit mean that it will be far easier and quicker for politicians to withdraw from existing arrangements than to create new, reconstituted and lasting ones; this radically increases the need for our recommendations for a new UK statutory food framework.
o Ill-thought-out Brexit arrangements could rapidly speed up the collapse of very many small food businesses in the UK, especially farms, as they are subjected to increasing and uncertain cost-price pressures, a lack of business investment, labour shortages and greater difficulties in gaining access to markets.
o While withdrawal from the EU might be relatively rapid, the process of building new trading and regulatory arrangements will be far slower.
o Whilst food system dynamics, and remedies to the problems, outlined here are in many cases ‘bi-partisan’ in term of UK party politics, they are likely to be embroiled in political debates, which will keep them secondary or indeed marginal to debates about the leading industrial and financial sectors; HM Government’s recent ‘industrial strategy’ barely mentioned food and farming.
o The increasingly vulnerable macro-fiscal position of the UK government will mean that tax receipts from small businesses (including the hike in business rates) and local services (increases in council taxes for care) etc will likely increase; both to resolve overall decline in government tax revenues; AND the current political pressure within the government to reduce corporation taxes for big internationalised companies as an incentive for them to stay in the UK. The food system, both in terms of its consumers and producers, could consequently be further squeezed both economically and politically, unless specific provisions are established to create a national food plan under a statutory framework [ ].
o The current food policy community is fragmented and divided. There is an urgent need for a more collaborative policy platform to be created involving all the main players. If the government fails to do this, others will need to take the initiative.
o Meanwhile the NHS is becoming increasingly bankrupted, not least because of the growth of an aging population suffering a dietary-health epidemic; the critical significance of the food system needs highlighting in these debates. o If those steps are not taken, and taken urgently, there will be growing levels of public protest; and a growing frustration by many who voted for Brexit (amongst others), if the process of ‘taking back control’ is unacceptably slow, and if it results in declining food security.