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Brexit

Westministenders: A Pickling Summer

983 replies

RedToothBrush · 18/07/2018 22:55

May has survived. The Turd Way has survived.

Whether this is true is another matter. The Turd Way was hijacked by the ERG who ripped it up and turned it from being a starting point to another ridiculous declaration of believing in Royal Unicorns. Rees-Smug has declared May LINO (Leader in Name Only) in tribute to BINO (Brexit in Name Only).

No one yet has grasped the consequences for NI. The backstop was absent from the White Paper except to say, it would never be used.

Johnson also in his commons resignation statement lives in a fantasy land, saying we had 2 and half years to get something in place for the Irish border. Except we don't because we don't have an agreed plan, we haven't hired the people to do it, there is no guarentee the way we are going that we will get a transition agreement agreed to afterall; its entirely dependent on us meeting certain criteria.

Even the Irish themselves haven't got to the point of admitting the possibility that there will be an Irish Border. Under WTO rules, members are legally required to secure their borders. If we are separate members to the EU we have to secure our border and they have to secure their border. In theory NI could be a separate member to the rest of the UK but this would breech the priniciple of a border in the Irish Sea.

No Deal has moved from being an option to being a distinct possibility.

The Trade Bill passed through the Commons unscathed with a dodgy pairing, the assistance of Labour rebels and the brewery tour organising skills of the LD and Labour whips despite the best efforts of Tory Rebels. It suggests the ERG have the numbers to force things but there still are no guarentees of anything.

We've had calls from Justine Greening for another referendum; despite it being obvious that the laws on referendums being ridiculously weak and just about everyone ignoring the findings of the electoral commision and the Leave Campaign's referal to the police. Even then the maximum penalties are wholly inadequate to prevent and deter electoral rigging.

We've had calls for a cross party government of National Unity. Which has been dismissed by Corbyn as an attempt at an establishment stitch up.

We've had the former Head of DexEu (the department who have refused the most FOI requests) and various ERG backbenchers (who said that publication of documents would damage the governments negotiations) ask for transparency and for draft DexEu documents to be published.

Ian Paisley Jr appears likely to be suspended from sitting in the HoC from 4th September for a month for breeching parliamentary standards, losing May one vital vote. She has however been bolstered by the resignation of John Woodcock from the Labour Party pledging his ongoing support of Brexit (he's been a Labour Rebel in the past). Plus there is the O'Mara Factor whereby the whole country could be at the mercy of whether Jared can be fucked to turn up to work at all or not.

There are growing signs out there for increasing support for EEA though despite it all.

The Trade Bill now goes to the Lords, where there is suggestion they might throw it out, after the Speaker declared they had the power to do so as it was a Supply Bill rather than a Money Bill thanks to the Amendments the ERG supplied.

All the while jobs are lost and companies are abandoning the UK and NI has had the most violence in years, but no one cares because Brexit means Brexit and its all worth it.

And finally, when being questioned by the Liason Select Committee, May said that 70 Technical Notices for Households and Businesses in the Event of No Deal would be published in August and September.

The country is in a total pickle.

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DGRossetti · 20/07/2018 16:31

Sorry but NI was not ripped away from the rest of Ireland by British violence etc.

Didn't the British give it to Scottish Protestants with the express intention of keeping it British ? Quite violently ?

20nil · 20/07/2018 16:32

No.

DGRossetti · 20/07/2018 17:24

Oh.

Meanwhile, I'm amused to see that the Theresa May brexit-plugging front page of the BBC has now been replaced with a Barnier Brexit-bashing one.

Balance ? Chance ? Or design Hmm

placemats · 20/07/2018 17:37

That's not true 20nil. Remember the Irish Civil War?

In 1922 the overwhelmingly Ulster Unionists made a plea to the UK to remain. The reason for there being overwhelmingly Unionists there was because of the first past the post system which favoured Unionists. They decided to plea for the union to continue.

Most Gracious Sovereign, We, your Majesty's most dutiful and loyal subjects, the Senators and Commons of Northern Ireland in Parliament assembled, having learnt of the passing of the Irish Free State Constitution Act 1922, being the Act of Parliament for the ratification of the Articles of Agreement for a Treaty between Great Britain and Ireland, do, by this humble Address, pray your Majesty that the powers of the Parliament and Government of the Irish Free State shall no longer extend to Northern Ireland.

There was a referendum regarding the border in 1973. Overwhelmingly against because of a boycott from the Catholic population. It was a fudge.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_border_poll,_1973

Peregrina · 20/07/2018 17:38

Sorry but NI was not ripped away from the rest of Ireland by British violence etc...

I believe that's not quite true - of the six counties in N Ireland I believe that only 4 wanted to stay in the UK but that these would not have had an inbuilt Protestant majority. I am more than willing to stand corrected if that is not the case.

Peregrina · 20/07/2018 17:41

I.e a 4 county NI would not be large enough to survive.

placemats · 20/07/2018 17:41

Thankfully Northern Ireland has a different voting system in place since then, more representative of the people who live there. STV (single transferable vote) otherwise known as proportional representation.

placemats · 20/07/2018 18:17

This is a bit about the workhouse in Lurgan, Northern Ireland.

Note that the plea for extra help was made to Dublin during the famine.

www.craigavonhistoricalsociety.org.uk/rev/macatasneygrtfamine.html

ClashCityRocker · 20/07/2018 18:29

Can anyone recommend a good resource re the history of northern ireland/Republic of Ireland?

I know 'bits' and if pushed could probably give an overview but I would like to understand a bit more about it.

BigChocFrenzy · 20/07/2018 18:33

The partition of Ireland was after the people of Ireland as a whole wished to leave the UK, but the descendants of English & Scottish colonists did not.
So Britain used military force and threats of all-out war to force the majority of Ireland to agree to partition,having a part of their country retained by the colonial masters.

Rather like if white Kenyans had refused to accept all of Kenya becoming independent - after the Mau Mau rebellion - and British armed forces had backed them up.
Although I'm sure many conservatives would have loved to do that, Britain in the 1950s and 1960s no lopnger had the military might to force its colonies to agree to partition.

BigChocFrenzy · 20/07/2018 18:34

oops, wished to leave Britain
"UK" was the term eventually codged up for Britain+NI

BigChocFrenzy · 20/07/2018 18:38

British oppression in NI goes back about 800 years, but to understand the effects of 19th century and early 20th century policies, look at how the Irish population was hammered:

www.napoleon-series.org/research/abstract/population/population/britain/c_population1.html

1801:
Britain (England, Scotland & Wales) pop. 10.5 million,
Ireland was 5.2 million.
==> Irish pop. used to bee* half the size of the British popp*.

2017:
Britain (England, Scotland & Wales) pop 63 million
Ireland ( RoI 4.7 million + NI pop 1.9 million) 6.6 million

RedToothBrush · 20/07/2018 18:40

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/windrush-scandal-latest-name-death-racist-gp-home-office-a8457006.html?amp&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter&__twitter_impression=true
Windrush man who suddenly died did not access healthcare for two years due to immigration concerns, inquest hears
Dexter Bristol, who died of heart failure earlier this year, was under 'extreme stress' and hadn't visited his GP since August 2016 due to issues with his uncertain immigration status, court hears

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RedToothBrush · 20/07/2018 18:53

C4 have a piece on Mr Banks and his Dodgy 'Diamond' Mines at 7pm.

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thecatfromjapan · 20/07/2018 19:12

Well done, C4. They don't give up. 😊

BrexitWife · 20/07/2018 19:21

Thanks Lico for all the work you’ve u have done at the 3millions.
Very very much appreciated.

Merci beaucoup 😊😊

BrexitWife · 20/07/2018 19:23

I really like the French part of Barnier speech.
This is one of the very few things that makes me a tiny bit more hopeful (that they will do a big U turn after much posturing)

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 20/07/2018 20:06

^I really like the French part of Barnier speech.
This is one of the very few things that makes me a tiny bit more hopeful^

Can you C&P it? I thing we could all do with a bit of hope...

prettybird · 20/07/2018 20:17

The full Barnier statement.

European Commission - Statement
Press statement by Michel Barnier following the July 2018 General Affairs Council (Article 50)
Brussels, 20 July 2018

Monsieur le Ministre, cher Gernot,

Mesdames et Messieurs,

Avant toute chose, permettez-moi de dire tous mes vœux à la Présidence autrichienne, qui se tient à un moment clef. C'est en particulier sous votre Présidence, cher Gernot, que nous devons conclure les négociations sur le Brexit.

D'ici au Conseil européen d'octobre, dans 13 semaines, notre objectif est de finaliser l'accord de retrait, dont 80% des dispositions sont déjà en vert dans le texte, c'est-à-dire qu'elles font l'objet d'un accord. Et notre objectif est aussi de nous mettre d'accord avec le Royaume-Uni sur le champ du futur partenariat, dans une déclaration politique.

Ce matin j'ai pu faire une analyse commune avec les 27 ministres, au terme d'une nouvelle semaine de négociations, de ma discussion hier avec Dominic Raab, avec lequel j'ai eu un entretien très utile et très cordial, et alors que nous avons reçu jeudi dernier le Livre blanc britannique sur la future relation.

Mesdames et Messieurs,

Ce Livre blanc est le fruit d'un débat très intense au Royaume-Uni qui était nécessaire. Chacun peut constater que ce débat n'est pas terminé.

De notre point de vue, il y a plusieurs éléments qui ouvrent la voie à une discussion constructive pour la déclaration politique sur notre future relation, par exemple :

la proposition d'un accord de libre-échange, qui devrait constituer le cœur de notre future relation économique. On rejoint là une proposition clef des guidelines du Conseil européen : un ambitieux free trade agreement ;
des engagements en matière de level playing field, notamment en ce qui concerne les aides d'Etat et les règles sur l'environnement et l'emploi ;
et une large convergence de vues sur de possibles et nécessaires coopérations en matière de sécurité intérieure et extérieure.
Le Royaume-Uni apporte des garanties en matière de protection des droits fondamentaux et reconnaît la Cour de justice de l'UE comme seul arbitre du droit européen.

Cela facilitera les échanges de données entre le Royaume-Uni et nous, et cela ouvre donc la possibilité d'élargir notre offre en matière de coopération sur la sécurité interne en particulier.

*

Mesdames et Messieurs,

Concernant notre futur partenariat économique, le Livre blanc soulève trois séries de questions auxquelles nous attendons des réponses :

1/ D'abord, les propositions du Livre blanc sont-elles compatibles avec les principes posés par les 27 chefs d'état et de gouvernement dès le début de cette négociation, principes rappelés par les ministres des affaires étrangères aujourd'hui, parmi lesquels :

L'intégrité du marché intérieur et de l'union douanière et de notre politique commerciale commune ;
L'indivisibilité des quatre libertés ;
L'autonomie de décision de l'Union européenne.
Voilà les principes qui sont dans mon mandat et que je ferai respecter scrupuleusement tout au long de cette négociation.

En tout état de cause, notre responsabilité est de protéger le marché intérieur de l'Union européenne, ce que nous sommes, surtout dans la période actuelle.

Prenons un exemple : le Royaume-Uni se dit prêt à s'aligner sur les standards de l'Union pour les biens – mais uniquement pour les standards contrôlés à la frontière.

Le Royaume-Uni ne s'alignerait donc pas sur nos règles agro-alimentaires relatives, par exemple, aux OGM ou aux pesticides, puisque le respect de ces règles n'est pas contrôlé à la frontière.

Cela nous a été confirmé cette semaine dans la négociation.

Mais comment pourrions-nous alors protéger les consommateurs européens ?
Sur quelle base pourrions-nous accepter la libre circulation de ces biens ?
2/ Deuxième question : ces propositions du Livre blanc sont-elles opérationnelles, "workable" ? Est-ce qu'elles sont applicables sans complexité supplémentaire ni bureaucratie additionnelle ?

Cette question se pose pour l'alignement réglementaire sur les biens, mais encore plus pour le "facilitated customs arrangement" proposé par le Royaume-Uni.

Cette proposition consisterait à appliquer deux tarifs – celui du Royaume-Uni ou celui de l'Union – aux biens qui entrent au Royaume-Uni, selon que ces biens sont destinés au marché britannique ou au marché européen.

Cela pose de nombreuses interrogations pratiques. Par exemple :

Comment les services douaniers pourraient-ils vérifier la destination finale des biens, et donc s'assurer que le bon tarif douanier leur est appliqué ? N'y a-t-il pas là un risque majeur de fraude ?
Quels seraient les surcoûts financiers et administratifs pour les entreprises et les services douaniers contraints de se conformer à ce nouveau système? Je veux dire simplement que le Brexit ne peut pas être, et ne sera pas, une justification pour créer une bureaucratie additionnelle.
Quel serait l'impact de tarifs britanniques inférieurs à ceux de l'Union sur les recettes, à la fois pour le budget européen et pour les Etats membres?
Ce système douanier complexe poserait aussi une question plus fondamentale :

Comment l'Union pourrait-elle déléguer l'application de ses règles douanières à un pays non membre de l'UE, qui ne sera plus soumis à notre cadre de gouvernance ?
Cela serait-il acceptable, ou tout simplement juridiquement possible ?
3/ Troisième question : les propositions du Royaume-Uni sont-elles dans l'intérêt économique de l'Union européenne ?

Et c'est aussi dans mon mandat de protéger les intérêts de l'Union européenne.

Deux observations :

Par définition, le "common rulebook" pour les biens ne concernerait pas les services, sur lesquels le Royaume-Uni veut être libre de diverger. Quand on sait que 20 à 40% de la valeur des produits que nous utilisons tous les jours est liée aux services, comment éviterait-on la concurrence déloyale qui pourrait s'exercer sur les entreprises européennes ?

Comment éviter qu'une politique commerciale britannique autonome, tout en gardant tous les avantages de notre union douanière, offre aux entreprises britanniques des avantages compétitifs majeurs au détriment des entreprises de l'Union ?

Ladies and gentlemen,

These were some of the questions we discussed yesterday with Dominic Raab.

We will continue this discussion. And we will look constructively at the answers that we will get to our questions.

But our main focus must be the finalisation of the Withdrawal Agreement.

Let me recall that the Withdrawal Agreement is the prerequisite for an orderly withdrawal, for the transition period, and for creating the trust that we need to build a solid partnership for the future.

This requires in particular a legally operative backstop – an "all-weather insurance policy" – to address the issues of Ireland and Northern Ireland. All 27 Member States insist on this.

Why? Because we are committed to protecting Ireland and Northern Ireland against the consequences of Brexit and to preserve the Good Friday Agreement in all its dimensions.

I said this on my last visit to Ireland and Northern Ireland a few weeks ago, where I engaged with stakeholders across both communities.

Let me simply recall the commitment taken by Prime Minister Theresa May to have a backstop in her letter to President Tusk in March. The respect of this commitment is essential.

And I made clear to Dominic Raab yesterday that we are not asking for a border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. What we need is checks on goods because the UK wants to leave the Single Market, the Customs Union and our common commercial policy.

We cannot afford to lose time on this issue. And this is why we have invited the UK to work on the backstop next week.

We are open to any solutions as long as they are workable and can be transformed into a legally operative text in time for the Withdrawal Agreement.

Ladies and gentlemen,

Even if we want to reach a deal, it is also our responsibility to be prepared for all scenarios, including a "no deal".

As the European Council said, we have to step up preparation at all levels, for all scenarios.

And the Communication adopted by the Commission yesterday should be read in this context.

We are encouraging national administrations and companies to use the time we have, which is very short, to accelerate this preparation.

Mesdames et Messieurs,

Nous devons trouver rapidement un accord sur tous les sujets encore ouverts dans l'accord de retrait. Ceci inclut bien sûr la question de l'Irlande et de l'Irlande du Nord, qui est la plus grave, mais aussi la question des bases militaires britanniques à Chypre et évidemment Gibraltar. Chacun de ces points est nécessaire. Je répète, nécessaire.

Et nous devons construire avec le Royaume-Uni la déclaration politique sur notre future relation d'ici octobre.

A ce stade de la négociation, même s'il nous reste peu de semaines, nous n'avons pas besoin de plus de temps. Nous avons besoin de choix et de décisions, de clarté et de certitude juridique.

Plus tôt viendront ces décisions et cette clarté, plus tôt nous pourrons nous concentrer sur l'essentiel, c'est-à-dire le futur partenariat que nous souhaitons le plus ambitieux possible, pour le commerce, pour les coopérations sectorielles, mais aussi pour notre sécurité intérieure et pour la politique étrangère et la défense.

Merci pour votre attention.

STATEMENT/18/4626

BigChocFrenzy · 20/07/2018 20:20

Full text of Barnier's statement:

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-releaseSTATEMENT-18-46266_en.htm

Mostly French, but scroll down and the first part is repeated in English, including this crucial reminder of NI border:

"Let me simply recall the commitment taken by Prime Minister Theresa May to have a backstop in her letter to President Tusk in March.
The respect of this commitment is essential."

Somerville · 20/07/2018 20:31

Hoey’s views on Brexit are no more odd than Frank Field’s

Hooey is Trump with a perm. (She wants to put up a border and charge the Irish government.)

OlennasWimple · 20/07/2018 20:40

I'm confused how an "EU citizenship" would work.

Who would consider applications for citizenship? Who would issue passports? Who would take back EU citizens deported from another (non-EU) country?

20nil · 20/07/2018 21:07

Sorry Bigchoc but not entirely true. I can write at length about it and will if people want that, but I don’t want to derail. Any serious history book will reveal that it was much, more complicated than unionist=bad, nationalist=good.

NI wasn’t NI 800 years ago. Ulster is historically a 9 county province but became a 6 county NI to preserve a Protestant majority of course. It wasn’t about survival because it was going to be in the U.K. so would survive no matter its size after WWI. It was not the only region in Europe which was partitioned along ethnic/religious lines. And it was emphatically not partitioned because Britain wanted it. They wanted the Irish Question to fuck off and this was reflected in the legislation which established NI and the Irish Free State. Tragically, it’s dragged on and on, but it cannot be explained in simple terms, it just can’t.

Just to add that I am not a unionist (or a nationalist).

BigChocFrenzy · 20/07/2018 21:07

The EU citizenship option has already been / is being considered by the EU Parliament,
but for Brit expats resident in the EU only.

An annual fee of EUR 200- was proposed, which would partly defray EU costs

Obviously, if this idea came to fruition, there would need to be a new department in the EU civil service to handle it.

Applications from Brit expats would be to this department

Any EU citizen expelled from a non-EU country would have the same rights as any other EU citizen to go to and reside in an of the 27 EU member states

BigChocFrenzy · 20/07/2018 21:19

The British conservative party in the early 20th century most certainly did NOT want a united independent Ireland.
They were NOT "forced" to accept a separate NI Hmm
They forced the rest of Ireland at gunpoint to back down, or the British army would go hard into the whole country

The Tories became the Conservative and fucking Unionist Party - clue there, they even changed their bloody name
Only Labour have always supported a united Ireland

The Tories gerrymandered partition for a Protestant majority and supported their Unionist partners in their decades of oppression of the Catholic minority, the targeted violence of the RUC, the denial of civil rights, denial of fair housing, of equal treatment in any way

The 2 sides of the confict are not in any way equal:

England conquered Ireland and then later Britain participated in centuries of oppression and misrule, bloody suppression of uprisings, a famine that killed ¼ million people, a decimated population that has still not reached the numbers it would have without British occuipation.

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