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Brexit

Westministenders: A Pickling Summer

983 replies

RedToothBrush · 18/07/2018 22:55

May has survived. The Turd Way has survived.

Whether this is true is another matter. The Turd Way was hijacked by the ERG who ripped it up and turned it from being a starting point to another ridiculous declaration of believing in Royal Unicorns. Rees-Smug has declared May LINO (Leader in Name Only) in tribute to BINO (Brexit in Name Only).

No one yet has grasped the consequences for NI. The backstop was absent from the White Paper except to say, it would never be used.

Johnson also in his commons resignation statement lives in a fantasy land, saying we had 2 and half years to get something in place for the Irish border. Except we don't because we don't have an agreed plan, we haven't hired the people to do it, there is no guarentee the way we are going that we will get a transition agreement agreed to afterall; its entirely dependent on us meeting certain criteria.

Even the Irish themselves haven't got to the point of admitting the possibility that there will be an Irish Border. Under WTO rules, members are legally required to secure their borders. If we are separate members to the EU we have to secure our border and they have to secure their border. In theory NI could be a separate member to the rest of the UK but this would breech the priniciple of a border in the Irish Sea.

No Deal has moved from being an option to being a distinct possibility.

The Trade Bill passed through the Commons unscathed with a dodgy pairing, the assistance of Labour rebels and the brewery tour organising skills of the LD and Labour whips despite the best efforts of Tory Rebels. It suggests the ERG have the numbers to force things but there still are no guarentees of anything.

We've had calls from Justine Greening for another referendum; despite it being obvious that the laws on referendums being ridiculously weak and just about everyone ignoring the findings of the electoral commision and the Leave Campaign's referal to the police. Even then the maximum penalties are wholly inadequate to prevent and deter electoral rigging.

We've had calls for a cross party government of National Unity. Which has been dismissed by Corbyn as an attempt at an establishment stitch up.

We've had the former Head of DexEu (the department who have refused the most FOI requests) and various ERG backbenchers (who said that publication of documents would damage the governments negotiations) ask for transparency and for draft DexEu documents to be published.

Ian Paisley Jr appears likely to be suspended from sitting in the HoC from 4th September for a month for breeching parliamentary standards, losing May one vital vote. She has however been bolstered by the resignation of John Woodcock from the Labour Party pledging his ongoing support of Brexit (he's been a Labour Rebel in the past). Plus there is the O'Mara Factor whereby the whole country could be at the mercy of whether Jared can be fucked to turn up to work at all or not.

There are growing signs out there for increasing support for EEA though despite it all.

The Trade Bill now goes to the Lords, where there is suggestion they might throw it out, after the Speaker declared they had the power to do so as it was a Supply Bill rather than a Money Bill thanks to the Amendments the ERG supplied.

All the while jobs are lost and companies are abandoning the UK and NI has had the most violence in years, but no one cares because Brexit means Brexit and its all worth it.

And finally, when being questioned by the Liason Select Committee, May said that 70 Technical Notices for Households and Businesses in the Event of No Deal would be published in August and September.

The country is in a total pickle.

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HermioneGoesBackHome · 20/07/2018 12:14

So why talking about the Belfast agreement rather than the GFA?? Puzzled....

RosinaAlmaviva · 20/07/2018 12:17

Maybe Belfast Agreement is the preferred term of the DUP and TM is kowtowing to them?

DGRossetti · 20/07/2018 12:20

The Belfast Agreement was signed on Good Friday, hence the alternative name.

A lot of things to do with Ireland have alternative names. As I found out mixing up Derry and Londonderry.

Also be careful how many counties you think there are in "Ireland" ... (BTDTGTTS)

RedToothBrush · 20/07/2018 12:29

Maybe Belfast Agreement is the preferred term of the DUP and TM is kowtowing to them?

Yes it is and yes she is.

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lonelyplanetmum · 20/07/2018 12:33

Right well kowtowing to the DUP is worrying isn't it. They've already had a billion pound bung to secure their confidence and supply.

So the only reason to kowtow to them would be an underlying plan to treat NI and the rest of us differently?

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 20/07/2018 13:27

1300 I think. www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2018/07/19/indicative-programme-general-affairs-council-art-50-20-july-2018/

Livestream has just gone live so I'm guessing press conference imminent

Peregrina · 20/07/2018 13:30

And the UK can refuse to recognise you as a UK citizen when you return.
Pretty certain this has happened elsewhere in the world from vague memory. Maybe around Israel ?

Closer to home - UK with cases from the Windrush generation, who returned to the Caribbean to visit and then were not allowed back to the UK, despite being British subjects who'd lived and worked here for donkey's years.

Hasenstein · 20/07/2018 13:36

And the UK can refuse to recognise you as a UK citizen when you return.

As I understand it, my DW's "Permanent" Residence card will lapse if she's out of the country for more than 2 years (consecutive). What's "Permanent" about that?

Peregrina · 20/07/2018 13:37

We could also see a return of the situation (which a certain William Joyce did) that you can't renounce your UK citizenship.

William Joyce a.ka. Lord Haw Haw is a rather complex case. There has always been debate about whether his trial and execution were legal, being an American citizen. However, he had obtained a British passport fraudulently and therefore the British argument was that he did owe allegiance to the Crown and could therefore be tried for treason.

Now it would be nice to see Cameron, Johnson and Farage tried for treason, especially the latter two, but I can't see it happening.

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 20/07/2018 14:02

Posted on wrong Brexit thread:

Ooh, Barnier just mentioned Gibraltar.

Says need to agree on I/NI backstop
Military bases in Cyprus
Gibraltar

Points out how little time left..

Open to any solution for the Irish border that uphold GFA in all dimensions.

Peregrina · 20/07/2018 14:20

I must admit, I couldn't follow Simon Jenkins argument in the Guardian. He was more or less saying we won't leave, but if we don't, we will have to pay our dues and sign up to the ECJ. I agree that FoM is much less of an issue because we have more or less agreed we have to keep that, dressed up under a different name, with us just enacting the powers to remove people already available to us, which we chose not to use.

Poor Gibraltar - got completely forgotten and absolutely no one can spin that as the will of the people there. They are not the UK so can't be subsumed under the UK vote.

Icantreachthepretzels · 20/07/2018 14:41

I've just had a swing back to 'it's not gonna happen'. Don't know why - but I feel better. Smile
not gonna stop stockpiling though

Motheroffourdragons · 20/07/2018 14:47

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

Lico · 20/07/2018 15:04

EU Citizens and Settled Status latest, not that settled!

mailchi.mp/the3million/newsletter104-740145?e=bb7e8f8777

DGRossetti · 20/07/2018 15:07

from the Barnier webcast:

We've got Ireland, still

We'll always have Ireland Smile.

Nice to hear him reminding folks that the deadline was the UKs idea. Also quite sneaky of him to comment that the negotiations depend on the UK parliament "because it is supreme" ....

DGRossetti · 20/07/2018 15:23

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44900164

Britons heading abroad at the start of the summer are being hit by the poorest exchange rates for almost nine months.

On Friday, the Moneycorp bureau at Stansted airport was offering just €0.89 for each pound on Friday, one of the lowest rates ever seen.

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 20/07/2018 15:23

Barnier statement up:

europa.eu/rapid/press-release_STATEMENT-18-4626_en.htm

DGRossetti · 20/07/2018 15:35

...We don't need more time, we need to make the right choices and decisions with clarity and judicial (legal ?) certainty...

I think he's in the wrong place then ... should have gone to the Chuckle Brothers.

prettybird · 20/07/2018 16:12

The ERG won't like this paragraph from Barnier's statement Hmm

Le Royaume-Uni apporte des garanties en matière de protection des droits fondamentaux et reconnaît la Cour de justice de l'UE comme seul arbitre du droit européen.

...but how many of them will take the time to read the French Grin

I find it very interesting which bits Barnier uses French for and which bits he does in English. Everything Barnier does is carefully politically calculated and thought through.

He also emphasised that what he was saying was after discussion with the E27 after meeting Raab - and that all he was/is doing is fulfilling the mandate he was given.

DGRossetti · 20/07/2018 16:16

I find it very interesting which bits Barnier uses French for and which bits he does in English

I thought that too ... replying in English to some, and French to others.

Of course - like Sherlock - the most interesting thing (certainly to me) about that press conference won't be picked up on. And certainly not by the modesty-challenged Brexiteers.

20nil · 20/07/2018 16:17

Bigchoc: Hoey’s views on Brexit are no more odd than Frank Field’s. They both have many libertarian and socially conservative views. She is not a natural DUP person either as she voted for equal marriage and supports access to abortion. If she was, she could have stood for them.

The Labour Party does not organise or field candidates in NI. It’s nominally paired with the SDLP which is hardly labour and close to moribund in any case. The failure/refusal of mainstream British parties to organise in NI has helped to keep the existing polarised party system alive in NI and many people there oppose this but have nowhere to go.

I don’t like her views on Brexit or most things and I like the DUP less, but it’s important to realise that not all unionists are knuckle draggers or DUP clones.

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 20/07/2018 16:19

but how many of them will take the time to read the French

There is a full English translation. I agree it is interesting seeing which bits Barnier says in which languages - I'm very grateful for the EUs simultaneous translation!

RedToothBrush · 20/07/2018 16:27

I don’t like her views on Brexit or most things and I like the DUP less, but it’s important to realise that not all unionists are knuckle draggers or DUP clones.

Westministenders: A Pickling Summer
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DGRossetti · 20/07/2018 16:27

I'm very grateful for the EUs simultaneous translation!

I like Barniers French - it's quite understandable compared to the rapid-fire of news readers. And Canadians Grin.

20nil · 20/07/2018 16:29

Sorry but NI was not ripped away from the rest of Ireland by British violence etc... a majority of people in north east Ireland did not want independence. The British government did not have to force them into unionism.

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