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Brexit

Westministenders: A Pickling Summer

983 replies

RedToothBrush · 18/07/2018 22:55

May has survived. The Turd Way has survived.

Whether this is true is another matter. The Turd Way was hijacked by the ERG who ripped it up and turned it from being a starting point to another ridiculous declaration of believing in Royal Unicorns. Rees-Smug has declared May LINO (Leader in Name Only) in tribute to BINO (Brexit in Name Only).

No one yet has grasped the consequences for NI. The backstop was absent from the White Paper except to say, it would never be used.

Johnson also in his commons resignation statement lives in a fantasy land, saying we had 2 and half years to get something in place for the Irish border. Except we don't because we don't have an agreed plan, we haven't hired the people to do it, there is no guarentee the way we are going that we will get a transition agreement agreed to afterall; its entirely dependent on us meeting certain criteria.

Even the Irish themselves haven't got to the point of admitting the possibility that there will be an Irish Border. Under WTO rules, members are legally required to secure their borders. If we are separate members to the EU we have to secure our border and they have to secure their border. In theory NI could be a separate member to the rest of the UK but this would breech the priniciple of a border in the Irish Sea.

No Deal has moved from being an option to being a distinct possibility.

The Trade Bill passed through the Commons unscathed with a dodgy pairing, the assistance of Labour rebels and the brewery tour organising skills of the LD and Labour whips despite the best efforts of Tory Rebels. It suggests the ERG have the numbers to force things but there still are no guarentees of anything.

We've had calls from Justine Greening for another referendum; despite it being obvious that the laws on referendums being ridiculously weak and just about everyone ignoring the findings of the electoral commision and the Leave Campaign's referal to the police. Even then the maximum penalties are wholly inadequate to prevent and deter electoral rigging.

We've had calls for a cross party government of National Unity. Which has been dismissed by Corbyn as an attempt at an establishment stitch up.

We've had the former Head of DexEu (the department who have refused the most FOI requests) and various ERG backbenchers (who said that publication of documents would damage the governments negotiations) ask for transparency and for draft DexEu documents to be published.

Ian Paisley Jr appears likely to be suspended from sitting in the HoC from 4th September for a month for breeching parliamentary standards, losing May one vital vote. She has however been bolstered by the resignation of John Woodcock from the Labour Party pledging his ongoing support of Brexit (he's been a Labour Rebel in the past). Plus there is the O'Mara Factor whereby the whole country could be at the mercy of whether Jared can be fucked to turn up to work at all or not.

There are growing signs out there for increasing support for EEA though despite it all.

The Trade Bill now goes to the Lords, where there is suggestion they might throw it out, after the Speaker declared they had the power to do so as it was a Supply Bill rather than a Money Bill thanks to the Amendments the ERG supplied.

All the while jobs are lost and companies are abandoning the UK and NI has had the most violence in years, but no one cares because Brexit means Brexit and its all worth it.

And finally, when being questioned by the Liason Select Committee, May said that 70 Technical Notices for Households and Businesses in the Event of No Deal would be published in August and September.

The country is in a total pickle.

OP posts:
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Bearbehind · 20/07/2018 10:58

Does anyone know what time Barnier's statement is?

RedToothBrush · 20/07/2018 10:59

David Allen Green @ DavidAllengreen
^Here is a mini-thread about Brexit and legal negotiations.

The withdrawal agreement is (of course) a legal text. This means, in this case, it needs to allocate various obligations and risks. 1.

The most important driver towards any agreement of any legal text is that the parties want to agree.

In this case, the UK and EU27 (esp. Ireland) do want to agree. As long as this continues to be the case, there will be a high likelihood the parties will agree. 2.

The issue here is not that the parties do not want to agree, but the terms of that agreement.

In particular, how is the risk of there not being agreement re Irish border by end of transition period is managed. 3.

The party that provides the first draft often is in the better position.

In this case, EU27 have proposed the "backstop" as the way to address the foreseeable risk.

But the backstop is a means to an end, not the end itself. Managing the risk is what matters. 4.

So what we have at the moment is an attempt by the UK to find ways of managing that risk, other than the backstop.

This is not new - the white paper set out nine points by which UK hopes that the proposed backstop is not necessary. 5.

It is hairy and scary stuff, no doubt. There is a risk of no deal until this issue is settled.

But while the parties (a) are negotiating and (b) mutually accept that there is a risk which needs to be managed, the fact there is still difference on the means is not unusual. 6.

The one positive to take from this is that the UK government is taking the issue seriously and is exploring other ways of managing the risk.

At last minds seem to be concentrating. 7.

None of this is to say anyone should be complacent.

Negotiations can still collapse even at late moments.

But negotiations of any high-stakes legal agreement have moments like this.

It is July. Agreement is needed by March (preferably October).

There is still time.

/Ends.

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DGRossetti · 20/07/2018 11:06

Technically the UK can strip dual nationals of their citizenship including British born.

But the entire point of Brexit is that the UK can do what it damn well wants. (Well continue to do as it damn well wants. As we've seen for a while the Home Office is already happy to piss all over the UKs current legal obligations).

All it takes is the ERG to trumpet how disloyal dual-national Brits are going to have an advantage over the morons that voted Leave, and you'll see a JRM amendment that UK citizenship is sole and cannot be held with any other EU nationality (thus not pissing off the US).

It's that easy.

We could also see a return of the situation (which a certain William Joyce did) that you can't renounce your UK citizenship.

DGRossetti · 20/07/2018 11:12

From the DGA text, I'm smelling a strategy ... a tactic ?

As negotiations proceed, they are going to get very complicated, very fast, if they are serious and sincere.

So fast they will simply exceed the speed of ERG thinking (which, lets face it, is steam powered). They could spew out thousands of pages a day. There's no way anyone could keep abreast - especially not when their main focus is not keeping abreast, but beating their breast in the Telegraph.

I wonder if there's an element of balloon magic being planned. Twist, squeeze, furtle furtle - oh look a dog(s breakfast ?).

We know Brexiteers hate detail ...

In other news, it's Friday Smile

BigChocFrenzy · 20/07/2018 11:18

It’s never their fault: why the Brexiteers love to cry betrayal

The hard right in both the UK and US have embraced victimhood:
"When you are accustomed to privilege, equality feels like oppression"

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/20/brexiteers-betrayal-britain-america
…
Those who imagined that Britain is stronger than it is

– that the European Union is weaker than it is, the Irish border would matter less than it does, and time would stand still while we worked ourselves out –

find their imperial imaginations imploding under the weight of their own hubris.

And so they plan to get their accusations of treachery, disappointment and disavowal in early, to avoid the rush.
…
It’s now painfully clear that whatever agreement is reached, it will satisfy few leave or remain voters.
What Johnson does not acknowledge is that it is his turd.
If he is incapable of clearing up after himself, the least he can do is not blame the stench on others.

Tanith · 20/07/2018 11:23

I’m feeling bitter for you Hermione

Going on their past behaviour, I wonder if the Government won’t see it as a positive to have their citizens pay privately for EU membership?

TheElementsSong · 20/07/2018 11:23

I have always suspected that the UK will happily prevent UK citizens taking up EU nationality (by simply refusing to recognise it). Simply out of pure spite.

Certainly I get the impression that many Leavers (eg. here on MN) would totally get off on that.

DGRossetti · 20/07/2018 11:24

Back to having to be comprehensively defeated. Again.

DGRossetti · 20/07/2018 11:25

Going on their past behaviour, I wonder if the Government won’t see it as a positive to have their citizens pay privately for EU membership?

Brexiteers would never buy it. Also, it's yet another way to shit on the less well off. As if we needed more of those.

BigChocFrenzy · 20/07/2018 11:26

20nil Unlike the 3 other hardcore Labour Brexiters, Hoey does not seem motivated by outraged at poverty of her constituents, since over her career she hasn't bothered much about poverty and the poor.

Her pronouncements don't fit the alternative Lexiter dream of a socialist new dawn unhindered by EU rules - the policies she espouses have generally been rightwing and not helpful to the poor, not distributionalist.

The only party where her views actually fit pretty well are the DUP - and we know she is a fervent NI unionist from her background and history.

Tanith · 20/07/2018 11:27

In fact, the idea of associate membership might well catch on.
In these Global days, why should someone be denied membership of an organisation they believe in, simply because of their place of birth?

Tanith · 20/07/2018 11:28

Well, again DGR that’s entirely in keeping with this Government’s philosophy, isn’t it?

DGRossetti · 20/07/2018 11:30

In these Global days, why should someone be denied membership of an organisation they believe in, simply because of their place of birth?

redefine what it means to be "a citizen" ?

Not really sure, given world events, that's a good idea Hmm

The road to hell, etc.

Remember, our own Prime Minister has a history of trying (illegally) to make people non-citizens. And if that phrase doesn't chill you, the future is darker than brighter.

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 20/07/2018 11:32

Interesting article today in the Guardian

I read the article and I disagree with the assertion that with no deal nothing would stop, and everything would keep going as normal. That would mean breaking a lot of international treaties, and while it would be inconvenient for the EU for things to simply stop, I imagine breaking all of the treaties would have even more of an impact

DGRossetti · 20/07/2018 11:32

We're still in the phase where no promise made by Leave has been fulfilled, and every prophecy from Remain has and the only way to pass the time is to needle Brexiteers for answers you damn well know they haven't got, to be rewarded with ... quite frankly bollocks.

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 20/07/2018 11:37

Does anyone know what time Barnier's statement is?

1300 I think. www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2018/07/19/indicative-programme-general-affairs-council-art-50-20-july-2018/

DGRossetti · 20/07/2018 11:38

(puts on French ears ...)

RedToothBrush · 20/07/2018 11:44

As negotiations proceed, they are going to get very complicated, very fast, if they are serious and sincere.

So fast they will simply exceed the speed of ERG thinking (which, lets face it, is steam powered). They could spew out thousands of pages a day. There's no way anyone could keep abreast - especially not when their main focus is not keeping abreast, but beating their breast in the Telegraph.

It took them three months to get a sniff of the December agreement (Feb). Another one to absorb the consequences and implications (March). Then two months after that to start to kick off about it (June).

Yes I do think it very possible its a strategy. It would be in keeping with how May has strung along both the ERG and Rebels at various points.

I have thought for some time, that May's delaying tactics have been about hiding intent rather than anything else.

The Belfast Agreement speech is an interesting one, because of her use of the Belfast Agreement rather than the GFA. Who is that making a point to? Who is her audience in that? In England I think GFA is the more commonly known phrase.

If I'm right about Boris's speech and what he seems to have let slip (deliberately?) about fucking the DUP over and the DUP interpreted it in that way too, what would May do next?

I dunno.

There are silly games going on, and its pretty pathetic tbh.

OP posts:
HermioneGoesBackHome · 20/07/2018 11:46

In these Global days, why should someone be denied membership of an organisation they believe in, simply because of their place of birth?

You mean like being a transnational?
So I don’t feel like british but I feel like I am German and i self indetify as German so I should automatically be treated as if I was German, even if I dont have the German citizenship? Wink
(Sorry I’ve been reading a feminist thread long those lines!)

HermioneGoesBackHome · 20/07/2018 11:48

Showing my utter lack of knowledge there.
What’s the difference between the Belfast agreement and the GFA?

BigChocFrenzy · 20/07/2018 11:53

The elected representatives of the EU member countries can choose to grant citizenship on application to certain groups of people.
Thus far, EU Parliament consideration has been focused on allowing this for British expats only, possibly for an annual fee (I have heard Eur200)

However, it is in their power to offer - citizens of other countries have no right to this, without the offer

Totally different to someone identifying as a woman / child / dog, since there is no way women / kids / dogs can elect representatives with power to grant or deny such applications.

HermioneGoesBackHome · 20/07/2018 11:58

BigChoc my comment was tongue in cheek...

BigChocFrenzy · 20/07/2018 11:59

I refuse to believe May has a cunning plan of any better standard than Baldrick.

Her whole time as PM has been "Negotiations by Baldrick"

She has been manipulated by various people, e.g. Nick Timothy
and dominated by the ERG

It would be nice to think that a few top civil servants, like the Cabinet Sec and Olly Robbins, have joined forces to steer her towards Norway+
However, they don't have the power to remove her and risk a GE, as the ERG do
So even if they are trying, the chances aren't good

Buteo · 20/07/2018 12:01

Hermione

The Belfast Agreement was signed on Good Friday, hence the alternative name.

It’s here if you want to read it:

www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-belfast-agreement

BigChocFrenzy · 20/07/2018 12:10

mother The position of NI is totally different, legally and historically, to that of Scotland
Hence why it can be handled differently:

  • Scotland was not ripped away from Greater Scotland by British military forvce, terrorism & threats, after the whole country chose Independence from Britain
  • Scotland has no GFA or other international agreement binding rUK wrt its borders and institutions, in which the EU - and the USA - have deep interests
  • Scotland does not have a land border with a neighbouring EU country
  • Scots do not have automatic right to citizenship of that neighbouring EU country
  • Scotland does not have nearly 50% of its population, likely to be a majority in the next few decades, who identify with / wish to become part of that neighbouring EU country

Above all, the EU does not have Scotland's border as one of its Phase 1 prerequisites
and none of its members will veto a deal over this