Westministenders: High Drama at The Ok Coral

[RedToothBrush]

3:00 p.m. Wednesday, October 26, 1881, Tombstone, Arizona.

After months of death threats from the Cowboy Billys, their long simmering feud with the law thing came to a head. The Earp Brothers and Doc Holliday faced the criminals down in a shootout.

Tomorrow's 'sleepover' is starting to feel like the Gunfight at the OK Coral.

The outcome of the real story was three of the outlaws were killed. Another two claimed they were unarmed and ran from the fight. Virgil, Morgan, and Doc Holliday were wounded, but Wyatt Earp was unharmed.

How many Brexiteers can we expect to roll over and resign from the Cabinet and how many will surrender to May and the Pro-Business lobby? ONly time will tell.

Please place your bets for the number of resignations and the number of 'I support the PM' comments.

But don't get too excited. The showdown wasn't the end of the matter.

One of the outlaws who legged it, filed murder charges against the Earps and Doc Holliday. It took them some time for them to be acquitted.

Then Virgil Earp was ambushed and disabled in the arm later that year in December and Morgan Earp was assassinated in March 1882. Wyatt Earp, then thinking he had no other option, went on a personal vendetta to kill the outlaws and then fled the state.

Given the Tory Cabinet and the perchant for stabbing each other in the back and settling personal scores, a repeat of a wild west gun fight, really doesn't sound too wildly off the cards now does it?

Buckle up. Its time to play at Chequers.

Ben Riley-Smith @benrileysmith
Trump UK visit schedule is out

Thurs evening - black tie dinner at Blenheim Palace
Fri lunch - Chequers with Theresa May
Fri afternoon - Windsor Castle with Queen
Sat / Sunday - Scotland

He's just coming for the golf isn't he?

Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes

5pm update:

What Theresa May's plan is - and what it means.

@SamuelMarcLowe has seen a leaked blueprint - and passes verdict. Spoiler: he says it's not going to fly with the EU

www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/the-first-coherent-brexit-plan-that-theresa-may-has-produced-the-eu-will-never-agree-to-it-lz7xtkmxb
The first coherent Brexit plan that Britain has produced . . . the EU will never agree to it

Essentially Mrs May is going for Jersey (single market for goods, customs union). With some caveats.

WTF is the Jersey Option?

It was first talked about in Sept 2016.

Here's the twitter thread about it:

Here's some stuff on the position of the Channel Islands (who were not eligible to vote in the referendum since they are not part of the EU, but their status is, in effect, reliant on UK status, so its not clear if this will be affected):

Faisal Islam ‏***@faisalislam*
Protocol 3, UK accession Treaty: Channel Islands are indisputably OUT of EU. No free movement... But in customs union
Here's how the Channel Islands authorities describe relationship - essentially IN the Single Market for Goods, OUT for all other purposes
The formal relationship between the Channel Islands and the EU is enshrined in Protocol 3 of the UK's 1972 Accession Treaty, and confirmed in what is now Article 355 (5) (c) of the EU Treaties. Under Protocol 3, the Islands are part of the Customs Union and are essentially within the Single Market for the purposes of trade in goods, but are third countries (ie outside the EU) in all other aspects. However the Channel Islands have a close relationship with the EU in many different fields, not simply those covered by the formal relationship under Protocol 3, as this note explains. Both Jersey and Guernsey voluntarily implement appropriate EU legislation or apply the international standards on which they are based
^More from CI - Goods export count as intra-EU trade, But exempt from VAT directive (solar, tampons etc). Opt-ins for specified EU laws
Outside the CAP and the Common Fisheries Policy (what Farage told me was his acid test for Brexit) ... But clearly affected by EU policy^
The Channel Islands are outside the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP); they do not pay into nor receive funds from the EU budget.
Similarly EU fisheries conservation measure under the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) do not apply directly to the Channel Islands under Protocol 3 and the Channel Islands do not pay into or receive money from the EU (or UK) budget, including the European Maritime and Fisheries Fund - EMFF. However Regulation 706/73 imposes certain constraints on the Channel Islands' own systems of agricultural support; state aid for exports of certain agricultural products to Member States and to non-EU countries may not exceed the relevant aid, refund or compensatory amount permitted to be granted by the UK under the respective EU rules. Although outside the CAP, the Channel Island are indirectly influenced by it and the rural development programme in each Balliwick is consistent with the direction of travel of CAP reform. For example agricultural support in both Guernsey and Jersey has been 'decoupled' from production for several years No obligation to follow competition and investment law, but EU "sets global standard" so CI follows anyway
^In environment and transport, no obligation to abide by EU law or regulations - but basically does anyway. With no influence on them
energy - Protocol 3 specific opt-in for C. Islands to Euratom, given proximity of French nuke power. Telecoms - own regs, no cheap roaming^
^And fascinating precedent on migration - visa free holiday travel for EU. Immigration policy has to treat all EU nationals (incl UK) same
full Channel Islands document on its third party relationship out of EU, already catered for in Treaty...^
Islam is quoting from in full here [[http://www.channelislands.eu/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/CI-EU-background-note-21-March-2016.pdf]]

If SNP seeking to cause mischief, could suggest England & Wales join Channel Islands out, Scotland/NI stay in EU !
Channel Islands precedent - control over FoM, laws, VAT (i.e. key Vote Leave asks) full single market goods access. poss diff EU-Scot deal
Andorra in the customs union, outside EU, outside CAP - sounds similar. So one of four freedoms. In practice, abides by a lot of EU regs

AoP/Thomas Widmann @arcofprosperity
@faisalislam I guess that's what many Brexiteers want. But it doesn't look likely that rEU will be willing to expand this to UK.

Faisal Islam ‏***@faisalislam*
Yes but it provides a rough guide to quid pro quo for full goods single market freedoms

[My note at the time was as follows: The trouble with all this is the EU would still have to agree this. And Spain won't want to do something that might lead to part of the country declaring independence if they have a means by which they might be able to still enjoy the privileges of the EU as independence in Scotland was in part held back by the threat that this would endanger its EU status. Spain's position on Gibraltar also causes problems. Its also hardly 'taking back control' if we still end up following EU rules we don't set. Can we just export Farage to the Channel Islands please, since this appears to be the model he wants?]

But at this stage, I'd say its probably grown in popularity.

But I agree, that there is little chance of the EU going for it, and I'm struggling to see the Brexiteers also doing so tbh.

The direction of travel with it, is definitely BINO though. And no trade deal with the US cos of the regulatory alignment.

Also what about services???

YouGov @YouGov
21% of Brits are less confident in Brexit than they were at the time of the EU referendum, including equal proportions of Remain (22%) and Leave (21%) voters

James Forsyth @JGForsyth
Leader in George Osborne's Evening Standard says one Cabinet Brexiteer is considering breaking ranks to propose EEA and a customs union. Hat Tip: @JoeMurphyLondon

Who would this be?

I'd put my money on the fella who was at the Remain AND Leave Pre-Chequers Scrums.

Who was that?

Why, of course it was the man who has no shame and a track record of putting his ambition first. Brexit was always just a means to an end for him.

Gove.

21% of Brits are less confident in Brexit than they were at the time of the EU referendum, including equal proportions of Remain (22%) and Leave (21%) voters

I'm trying to imagine a Remainer who had any confidence in Brexit. Let alone enough that could register a 22% shift.

Note also that Javid has been hanging out with the Leave camp.

Gove and Javid are the two favs for the leadership.

This is not a coincedence.

Btw also this

Douglas Carswell @DouglasCarswell
I quit the ERG because it was insufficiently committed to securing an EU referendum. How odd that it should now be full of people implacably opposed to some perfectly sensible proposals by May

Is the line now changing to we won the referendum woohoo, now lets be sensible? (after we've already profitted from the shit)

Cos there's interesting things happening.

I'm trying to imagine a Remainer who had any confidence in Brexit. Let alone enough that could register a 22% shift.

Oh I don't know... two years ago I thought it would just lead us into an eternal downward economic spiral and a general shittening of life. Now I think there may well be a Mad Max style Armageddon... so I suppose you could claim my confidence has decreased.

fair point

www.captiongenerator.com/1024722/Chequers-Brexit-Downfall-parody

All Westministenders Nerds should watch this!!!?
So many negogition jokes in there you might even snigger.

Oh I don't know... two years ago I thought it would just lead us into an eternal downward economic spiral and a general shittening of life. Now I think there may well be a Mad Max style Armageddon... so I suppose you could claim my confidence has decreased.

At least I have one advantage in starting at a pretty low point with Brexit expectation...

www.captiongenerator.com/1024722/Chequers-Brexit-Downfall-parody
Danke viell mal Sicher shon.

Goodness, what a lot of cross bunnies there will be when 'england' lose manball tomorrow too.

There's a lot more chance of winning at football than an economically worthwhile Brexit.

Damn hot today out there. These women and men are heroes. I saw Laura Kuenssberg. She probably was told not to speak to them like David Attenborough has been told not to speak of it.
www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/entire-tory-cabinet-refuse-meet-12859650#ICID=sharebar_facebook

I do love a downfall parody... that one was very good.

////

Decorative place mat king...

9o'c all will be revealed. Norway style I'm guessing. Border at NI airports and ports.

Norway style gives the same benefits as EU + payment into the coffers, but no say. Harrumph. Or there will be some variation of that including alignment, regulation etc. Why I ask myself is all this complex stuff necessary if they are just going to fudge things again, maybe.

But I'm just guessing here. We'll see in half an hour.

Barnier knows already I'd say, so it will either be accepted or rejected toot sweet.

twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1015304065910231045

Place marking

JDD (R North's blog) was all gloom that May' new idea was just another cake version that had no chance of being accepted by the EU
The more intelligent journalists agree with this

I hope she will suddenly pop out with a disguised Norway+
but I'm not expecting it, at least not before mid-December

Problem is, if this is rejected by EU, the Brexiters will have a conniption about inflexibility and bullying AGAIN by Barnier/EU.

There will be nothing about the clusterfck and lack of planning and infighting amongst the Tories that has led us to this pass though.

incoming thread:

Beth Rigby @BethRigby
NEW: May has a deal. Her team was in high spirits when I dropped into #Chequers earlier for a pool clip. Source told me when she faced them down the Breixteers fell into line

Gove is the most likely of the "real" Brexiters to be the EEA+ convert:

1. Despite his fanaticism, destructiveness & many other unpleasant qualities, he is very clever
   and can think outside the box when nevessary

2. He & Osbourne remained pally even after the ref and after Osbourne leaving Parliament

• I remember photos of them on holiday, walking down the street obviously together, on their way to some high-brow cultural thingy.

Note: it is very possible that Javid is also an EEA+ fan, but I don't count him as a "real" Brexiter - he was originally Remain but after the ref he fairly obviously positioned himself to gain broader party support for his leadership ambitions.

She might have a deal amongst the Cabinet, but is it acceptable to EU? We shall see.

Question is:
a deal involving illicit cherry cake & special UK arm-waving,
or one the EU can actually consider a reasonable basis for sensible negotiation