Westministenders: High Drama at The Ok Coral

[RedToothBrush]

3:00 p.m. Wednesday, October 26, 1881, Tombstone, Arizona.

After months of death threats from the Cowboy Billys, their long simmering feud with the law thing came to a head. The Earp Brothers and Doc Holliday faced the criminals down in a shootout.

Tomorrow's 'sleepover' is starting to feel like the Gunfight at the OK Coral.

The outcome of the real story was three of the outlaws were killed. Another two claimed they were unarmed and ran from the fight. Virgil, Morgan, and Doc Holliday were wounded, but Wyatt Earp was unharmed.

How many Brexiteers can we expect to roll over and resign from the Cabinet and how many will surrender to May and the Pro-Business lobby? ONly time will tell.

Please place your bets for the number of resignations and the number of 'I support the PM' comments.

But don't get too excited. The showdown wasn't the end of the matter.

One of the outlaws who legged it, filed murder charges against the Earps and Doc Holliday. It took them some time for them to be acquitted.

Then Virgil Earp was ambushed and disabled in the arm later that year in December and Morgan Earp was assassinated in March 1882. Wyatt Earp, then thinking he had no other option, went on a personal vendetta to kill the outlaws and then fled the state.

Given the Tory Cabinet and the perchant for stabbing each other in the back and settling personal scores, a repeat of a wild west gun fight, really doesn't sound too wildly off the cards now does it?

Buckle up. Its time to play at Chequers.

Farage isn’t a happy bunny. So at least that’s a positive.

Is Garage tweeting?

80% of people may have voted Tory or Labour, but it doesn't follow that they voted for Leave. For many it's a dead issue, they are bored with it. They voted for the NHS, they voted against cuts in education, and some voted tribally because they always do.

I have been out all day so going back to Trump, there will be a protest at Blenheim although prior commitments will stop me going, and then a demo in Oxford on the Friday and the same again - I am unlikely to be able to go. I will be there in spirit.

Jim Pickard
‏*@PickardJE*
Am told that Andrea Leadsom and Esther McVey grumbled about the Brexit offering....but Boris was very quiet and Gove enthusiastic while Fox and Grayling (who’s doing Today tomorrow) were on good behaviour: some Tory Eurosceptics annoyed that no one resigned....

How does May's win affect the Leavers Gove, Johnson etc. in the Cabinet? Has she managed to hobble them, something which Cameron wasn't able to do?

Why is Gove enthusiastic? That can't be good, surely.

If there is a Tory leadership challenge then Gove will need votes. He will find it difficult to get them without appealing to Remain Tory MPs. He has to be a candidate that they won't be desparate to block.

Also he's currently DEFRA. DEFRA and Hard Brexit are a combination made in hell for one's career and political ambition.

If he is sensing a change in public opinion, you can bet your life he'll be the first one to jump on the bandwagon too.

Not to mention Gove is an opportunist. If his unique selling point is reformed Brexiteer, it possibly won't harm him. He's sharp slippery enough to talk his way out of 'betrayal' talk.

Oh and who does his wife work for? And he also regularly has done work for? And is about to come under new management which has left all fearing for their jobs if they don't suddenly become remainers...

...oh yes it'd be the Daily Mail.

He's betting on it being him v Javid too. And Javid is trying to get support across the party too. Both are trying to place themselves as the unity candidate...

He doesn't want to be tarred with the shit of hard no deal Brexit too...

Take your pick of reasons. There are plenty for Gove to suddenly have a rush of blood to the head and go for a softer Brexit.

And no its alll most definitely not a good thing.

Sam Coates Times @ samcoatestimes
Today’s Brexit deal is 80% of the way towards Norway plus some of the principles of the customs union....

... given the PM will never do CETA because it means a hard border in NI, if the EU say no cherry picking on FM then full single market full customs union much more likely

Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall
Brexiteer MP texts saying “we’ve been mugged”. The truth is the PM actually mugged them back in December when they allowed the PM to sign up to regulatory backstop on the Irish border. Everything today flows from that fateful decision- by accident or design, she boxed them in.

They didn't get it did they. They still don't. And these are the people telling us how we should be negogiating...

Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico
The govt Remainers have overplayed their hand.
The EU will very probably reject these proposals. The UK will start to assume no deal & prepare seriously for it. The EU will panic & try to cobble together a can-kicking solution. The UK may well reject that.
So the game's back on.

Alex Wickham @WikiGuido
Senior ERG MP: “This looks like a total betrayal from both No10 and the Cabinet. We will be total rule takers and our ability to strike trade deals will be severely hampered. Cabinet Brexiters promised us they would fight this. If what Number 10 says is true, this is not Brexit.”

Gove as prospective PM would bring out all the English teachers, English parents of school kids currently suffering under the reforms instigated by him, school kids who've turned 18 and had to endure his revised curricula and exams.......

.....to vote against him.

Won't make any difference in Scotland we already knew he was a toad

As a Scot, I apologise for the fact that we have inflicted both Gove and Fox on England But breathe a tremendous sigh of relief that they don't represent Scotland in any way

Jim Pickard
‏*@PickardJE*

“Chancellor Philip Hammond also turned the screws, warning ministers and Tory MPs that if they pushed for an economically damaging hard Brexit, austerity for stretched public services would have to continue for years to come...”

Election suicide.

Nick Cohen @NickCohen4
Dominic Cummings said there should be no plan for Brexit because solid proposals would place leavers in an “unwinnable debate”
As a propaganda tactic to win a referendum this was brilliant.
As a strategy for Britain’s future, it was a disaster

Oh dear.

Though the "if you quit you leave your ministerial car here" is a master stroke

olennas I loved that gem too
A rare example of May in command (or maybe the Cabinet Secetary suggested that ?)

How Theresa May is selling the Chequers proposal to Conservative MPs

That was quick, obviously prepared in advance of the pyjama party.
This Brexit process would be so different if May could invest similar foresight & care in engaging with the EU.

https://brexitcentral.com/theresa-may-selling-chequers-proposal-conservative-mps/

Below is the full text of the letter Theresa May has sent to Conservative MPs in the immediate aftermath of the Chequers summit:
< / pyjama party >

"Dear Colleague,
…
The EU’s position implies that two models of relationship are currently available to the United Kingdom.
Neither works. < well, it does for them >

The first is a standard Free Trade Agreement for Great Britain, with Northern Ireland carved off in the EU’s customs union and elements of the single market, separated from the United Kingdom’s own internal market.
This is unacceptable to us as Unionists.

The second would, effectively, be membership of the EEA and the Customs Union. < Norway + TINA - or apocalypse >

This would not deliver on the referendum result. < which was leave / remain, nothing else >
It would mean continued free movement, continued payment of vast sums every year for market access, continued obligation to follow the great bulk of EU law and no ability to strike our own trade deals.

So we need to shift the EU to consider a third model < no chance if it damages the Single Market >

And this new model must provide for the friction-free movement of goods, < to save the country & the Tories from apocalypse >
because that is the only way to avoid a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland and between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, and to protect jobs across the United Kingdom that depend on just-in-time supply chains.'

The Government statement attached to this letter sets out how the Cabinet has collectively agreed to evolve our position.

We are proposing that the framework for our relationship with the European Union should be an Association Agreement
…"
< Heading towards Associate Membership by another name ?
iirc Junckers has proposed this as an option for EU members / UK.
Depends how much more she can shift and whether the EU allow a transition period for the shifting to occur.
I suspect this is enough for Barnier to fudge transition, so the E27 can at least complete their prepping for a WTO deal >

Personally I'm quite impressed that TM had the foresight to say if anyone criticises this plan on Twitter or in the press, they'll be sacked. She's allowed people to do whatever the F they want for bloody ages.

Maybe Olly Robbins was the brain behind this actually.

Such a good article that Ian Dunt article. Thank you RTB.

'But we have no-one to blame but ourselves. The British government created an impossible negotiating posture set to an undeliverable timetable and tried to deliver it 'through the medium of hysterical nationalist psycho-babble.'

This is so true. It is scary how the government position has had little more complexity or expertise than that reflected on these Westminsterenders and Brexit arms threads.

The Remainers In the Cabinet try to look at the detail of trade organisation and the viability of any alternatives. The ERG and indeed May give incessant sound bites about the will of the people, about how 'no deal is better than a bad deal', about how 'they need us more than we need them', There is puff about beneficial trade deals with the hostile protectionist steel tariff imposing US. But the ERG have not been able to come up with anything concrete or viable.

The cabinet simply echo the position on these threads. There's been two years ( or 40 years) of Brexiteers talk about their hubristic desires but always just in general principle and sound bites. Hysterical, nationalistic psycho babble eschewing trade industry specialists ( experts).

But it's always up to the Remain posters to supply links and detail. In the same way it's the Remain cabinet members or the EU who have to supply detail and design of some new viable arrangement whilst minimising the already dramatic affect on the economy.

continued payment of vast sums every year for market success

Why does she keep saying this. It's 1% of GDP. Please tell me she doesn't think like the Daily Mail and Express write in terms of your domestic household budget.

Oh my god. This is so embarrassing ...

mobile.twitter.com/theresa_may/status/1015337051355480064

Net UK contributions are only about 0.7% GDP

Setting up & running all the agencies to which we no longer belong and new inspection & compliance checks for goods, services etc, likely will cost more than that, due to startup costs and losing economies of scale.

That's quite apart from all the businesses that have cut investment and are moving jobs abroad.
Which runs into lost £billions, even before Brexit.

Then there are the potential £billions for which the UK can be sued by foreign investors under ISDS …

Oh dear. I mean, I hope they're right that BINO is what we're getting, but they don't think much of it do they.

Hi sorry I know everyone is big picture thinking and this is really self centred but am I right that all this still means I have no idea what they are trying to negotiate for services? I have a tiny tiny business with two of us providing services only to countries outside UK - mainly in Europe. It's really small but keeps our two families going. About as much advice as I can find was assume VAT registration needed in all.countries in case of no deal. What about withholding tax (some countries we have worked with charge a whacking extra tax paid on services delivered by foreign companies) and my ability to fly in work for a week and leave? I'm no nearer knowing whether we are even aiming for an agreement that means I'll be able to work at the same rates am I? Which means I still have to go ahead with trying to set up business somewhere in the EU I suppose. Like I say sorry this is so small scale and a bit of a digression but I must be one of thousands who have been waiting to see how things would pan out but cant keep waiting past this summer to make decisions.

And that was really long. Anxiety rant. Oops.

Sounds awful falcon

Have you written to your MP asking for a response from a relevant minister?