Faisal Islam @ faisalislam
UK Government meeting at Chequers agrees to [ask for] a “Free Trade Area for goods” including a “Facilitated Customs Arrangement” which would remove need for all border checks between UK and EU “as if a combined customs territory”
A customs union with the EU.
PM statement: “proposal establishes a common rule book for industrial goods and agricultural products”
Bit on ECJ jurisdiction sounds very much like an opening for Efta Court/ EEA...
Very unsurprising tbh. No alternative. Except ECJ itself
Common rule book for agrifood with EU - surely makes it impossible to adapt US agri standards - perhaps might try to do a narrow FTA outside of these parameters
Donald's gonna be pissed.
FCA sounds the same as the Customs Partnership that Boris Johnson called “crazy”. Big problem is it requires changes in every other EU country basically in order to give UK freedom to change tariffs - at a time when UK already sued at ECJ over applying existing rules...
Polite way of saying it's bollocks and will never survive the EU talks.
With this proposal UK Government believe the Ireland backstop will not need to be brought into effect - as this honours “letter and spirit” of Belfast Agreement
Close but no cigar.
This offer, says Government, should solve concerns of Airbus, BMW, JLR etc - the integrated supply chains/ Just in Time delivery - ie “frictionless access” rather than “as frictionless as possible”
Too little too late.
Essentially Take Back Control, but with that control, choose to maintain v similar arrangements for goods and agriculture but not service trade and immigration. Makes big point about freedom to join Trans Pacific Partnership...
What Donnie walked out of.
..anyway of course plenty of holes to pick at in this new approach, it consolidates pinkening of red lines but Brussels would be wise not to laugh this out of town - some building blocks for a conversation here...
Key - UK Government wants frictionless trade for big manufacturers
Key, government knows in order to win the next election it has to win crucial seats in the midlands where there is a lot of car manufacturing. If they don't get them, they are toast.
Indeed Barnier sends initial warmish response:
Michel Barnier @ michelbarner
#Chequers discussion on future to be welcomed. I look forward to White Paper. We will assess proposals to see if they are workable & realistic in view of #EUCO guidelines. Next negotiations w/ #UK on WP, & Withdrawal Agreement, w/c 16 July #Brexit
Code for: thank fuck for that! They've finally got round to having a starting point plan. Now I can actually do my job.
Faisal Islam @ Faisalislam
But why you would choose to lay out such tough red lines if you thought things might end up here - a bit of a mystery. How Brexiter Cabinet ministers have signed up to this a mystery.
“Can’t see how that can accept this and not look a laughing stock” - one former senior minister.
Cos they know they have no alternative and they can still force no deal and May's resignation. We had all the tough red lines, cos May had nfi what she was talking about before, and pennies have dropped since the GE.
Perhaps it was this bit - that preparations have been stepped up for “No Deal”. Given the Commission have published 70 preparedness notices for ordinary businesses, and UK Gov none, that would not be very hard.
Indeed. They still think they can force no deal. In fact they think it more not less likely.
For me big change is Cabinet decided it wants to maintain frictionless [not just ‘as possible’] EU trade - ie unwilling to introduce any frictions that imperil car industry/ Airbus jobs etc -so accept logic of total alignment and thus constraints on scope of new FTAs eg with US
Yep cos the penny has dropped that we'd have no business and the us wants to fleece us.
What's David Allen Green's phrase about bouncing off the walls of reality?