Westministers: Operation Over The Cliff

[RedToothBrush]

Bit late and didn't realise the last thread was so close to the end... so this is a very quick OP

What do you think the secret continency plan name the government have in place for the No Deal?

Suggestions Please

I know it’s drom a few days ago but???
t.co/cgDmHfsbJ1
message from No10

TM looks exhausted and terrified.
As for what she says...

(Indie) Exclusive: With cabinet deadlock in the UK delaying progress, the EU's focus is on working towards a December deal

Well, not surprising

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-uk-withdrawal-deal-october-december-european-council-a8423061.html

EU negotiators have abandoned all hope that a Brexit deal will be signed with the UK at October’s European Council summit,
The Independent has learned.

Brussels officials said a complete standstill in talks with Britain means securing settlements on major outstanding issues in the remaining three-and-a-half months is fanciful.

They point to the political logjam in Theresa May’s government as the obstacle blocking negotiations, piling pressure on the prime minister to break the deadlock this week.
< but that would take backbone, which this jellyfish PM doesn't possess)
…
One Brussels insider said:
“There is no hope really for October now. We don’t know exactly what she is asking for yet, so how can there be?

“First the UK needs to decide what it wants, then there needs to be a discussion here and
even if it is acceptable, there are processes that have to take place first before everyone agrees to move forward.”
…
“Now we are looking at December as a more likely option, but there are questions about how much time that leaves for the deal to be ratified in time before March.”

If the European Parliament and the 40 or so national & regional Parliaments feel in January that they are being too rushed, that they have insufficient time to debate the details,
there is the risk that some will refuse to approve

A straight Withdrawal Agreement requires only QMV, but if includes a trade framework, then any veto could stop it

Also, without guarantees of a soft NI border, the RoI will probably veto and several other countries, large & small, would support it - all 27 countries so far remain united on this Phase 1 prerequisite.

Belated place mark

I agree Brexitwife, she looks terrible. The part around 40 seconds in - she sounds almost hysterical. This must be taking a dreadful toll on her.

Sunday Times. Tim Shipman lead story.

I find it difficult to sympathise with Theresa May. So many of the problems are of her own making. I recollect her crowing at the Tory Conference in 2016. She could have attempted to face down the right wing head bangers and not signed A50 and challenged them to replace her. But she didn't. She then chose to have an unnecessary election, I am convinced because she thought she could do Labour down primarily, rather than for the good of the country, although an increased majority would have given her a mandate.

Added to that, consider her behaviour at the Home Office. One gets the feeling that Karma is getting her.

How the hell do people even have a hope of getting rid of lightweights like Leadsom or McVey?

You've been to Tatton? McVey suits the constituency down to the ground. She's very clueless of the real work representative.

The Sunday Times piece looks interesting. Of course, the hard line Brexiters demands fall apart with the N Irish/RoI border situation, for which they have no workable solution. As for a weakening of democracy - the mandate for hard Brexit was lost with the election, so it's a bit much them talking of democracy. Still, let's see if they mount a challenge. It will be the one time that May's stubbornness is in her favour.

Shipman article says that if May falls up to 20MPs are looking to run for the leadership including

Sajid Javid, Michael Gove and Jeremy Hunt. Whilst Gavin 'i didn't say I made her, I'll break here's Williamson is apparently, with other defence minister planning to use the Royal Family to get his £40,000,000 for the department.

Article also states Brexiteers are going to go nuts at the party this week. May thinks she will win a no confidence vote, and even if she gets over 100 votes against her she'll still refuse to resign.

36 Leavers have sent letter telling May to stand up to Brussels and get tough to get a good deal they want no deal

The white paper will say, leave single market, customs union and ECJ.

But Ollie Robbins will present a Norway type deal.

John Bolton met the ERG...

National Crime Agency, sniffing around Aaron Banks.

Booker still the lone voice warning of catastrophe in the Torygraph,
still relegated from his previous prominence to shorter articles and hidden away in the paper.
However, his articles are getting far more readers than before, high up in their trending list

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/06/30/brexit-looms-could-heading-chaos-skies/

In all the excitement over that Heathrow third runway, there has been remarkably little mention of recent warnings from the European Commission that,

within few months, Heathrow could, at least for a while, be closed to international traffic altogether.
< not just with the EU, but all those 3rd countries with whom the EU agencies organises safety certificates for its memebers re airports, pilots, aircraft, components … >

This would create such a crisis that we would no longer be worrying about a third runway but only how to keep its existing two open.

Since last December Heathrow, like all other international airports in the EU, has only been legally authorised to operate at all under a certificate issued on behalf of the European Aviation Safety Agency

Everyone seems to have forgotten that the European Parliament needs to actually approve the deal.
TM seems to be working on the assumption that if she has an agreement with the eu negotiators, then everything is ok so you can push back to time when you get the final agreement.
If there I no time for the Parliament to sit and vote, or if the Parliament rejects it (which could well happen - look at what happened iwth canada), what the heck is the uk going to do???

Javid (my choice since the ref) in with a shot.
However, I still think his only real chance is if it doesn't go to members

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/30/sajid-javid-is-surprise-choice-of-tory-activists-to-be-next-party-leader

Sajid Javidd*, the home secretary, is the popular choice of Tory activists
< but probably NOT party members >
to be the party’s next leader, a survey revealed on Saturday.

The MP for Bromsgrove came top of in the monthly poll by the ConservativeHome website with the backing of 22% of the 1,107 votes cast.

He replaces Jacob Rees-Moggg^ who last month topped the poll for the fifth time in succession having been either at the top, or second choice to “other”, since the 2017 general election.
Rees-Mogg is now the fourth most popular choice, with Michael Govee^, the environment secretary, lying second and “other” third.
< Javid would be so much better then the toxic 3 >

The shift in opinion has been dramatic.
Three months ago Javid was polling just 2%.
In the wake of his appointment as home secretary, he took 10% of the vote, coming third. Last month, that rose to 13%.

The poll is seen as a reliable barometer of grassroots opinion although it can shift quickly.
The latest result seems to suggest a move away from finding a replacement from the old team and looking for someone new.

Leavers just ignore this, BrexitWife as most - including most in the govt - are ignorant of how the EU works.

The EP has to approve the Withdrawal Agreement by a majority vote, as will the 27 heads of govt (QMV)
Also, if the WA contains a trade framework, as the UK desperately wishes, then it becomes a "mixed deal" which, like trade deals, must be approved unanimously by all national & regional parliaments, totalling about 40.

So any EU member can veto this.

However, Tory Leavers only debate among themselves
Having promised incompatible things to different parts of the electorate, they are totally bricking it.
Their sole aim is to avoid blame and annihilation in future GEs

If the EU don't give in to what the govt wants - if the Tories ever decide what this is - then it is the evil EU dictatorship punishing plucky Britain.
The EU has been assigned the role of cake-giver, hence failing that, of scape-goat

I can't see the grass roots Tories stomaching a Muslim PM.

More unhappy govt leaks:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/30/cabinet-anarchy-chequers-summit-brexit-negotiations

Early on Wednesday evening a middle-ranking minister stopped on his way to a meeting in the House of Commons and offered the following observations about the government in which he serves.

“There is no discipline at all.
Everyone thinks they can say just what they want.

It is not good for anyone or good for the country.”

Crucial decisions on Brexit had to be made within days, and time was running out, he said.

But within the cabinet, disagreements were widening as the moment of truth approached.
Ministers were briefing against one another in public,
giving an impression that the ship of state was heading for the rocks just when the national interest required those steering it to pull together.

“She has to lead,” the minister added.
“The can has been kicked into the corner on Brexit.
It can’t be kicked any farther.”
…
"I don’t think the [leadership campaign] telephone lines are being installed quite yet, but it’s pretty clear that the endgame is afoot,”

Asked why cabinet anarchy had descended when unity was demanded more than at any time in recent history,
a former minister said she could only think it was fear of failure and the human instinct to blame others for impending catastrophe.

“A sense of doom seems to have stirred selfish instincts of self-preservation.

They all fear we are heading for no deal and disaster.
Now it’s every man, every woman for himself and herself.
It is about salvaging reputations.”

< howls with laughter >

MP, Chair of 1922 committee: The voters trust May, so ministers now need to unite behind her

Ok, she really is fighting for her political life
The 1922 / men in grey suits are praising her before burying her:

www.theguardian.com/profile/graham-brady

I agree peregrina

Yup, which is why I posted that Javid can only get in if it doesn't go to members,
i.e. annointment / fix during the MP's voting rounds.

Javid hasn't made the enemies among MPs that the vocal / batshit Brexiters have, but MPs are unlikely to feel able to choose a Remainer like Hammond.
Javid has the credentials to carry out Norway+ and is very unusual in Cabinet in actually having proven talent outside politics

Once installed, trying to remove yet another PM would just let in bogey-man Corbyn

but that is only if May goes first

• history shows the assassin doesn't get the Tory leadership

Funnily enough, sufficient voters do trust May. Or at least they feel that she is the most competent of a bad bunch.

Her statement in the ST article about she would carry on if she just had a one vote majority, reminded me of Thatcher's " I fight on, I fight to win.", just before she too gave up.

Can anyone give me a synopsis on what has actually been agreed in the negotiations so far ? I don't seem to be able to get past the soundbites to actual facts and figures, and I have tried ( a bit !) and it is something I am interested in and care about , so how is part of the population who isn't interested and doesn't care supposed to know where we are at ?