Westmistenders: 'No Deal please; We're British'

[RedToothBrush]

It has to be said that its almost as if Tory Rebels are too polite to challenge the PM.

But the stakes are getting higher and higher as it becomes more and more apparent that it is a clear choice between a chaotic no deal situation or a BINO and there is no alternative to that.

If the Tory Rebels don't show their grit and are not prepared to be as strong in their determination as the Brexiteers - out of almost politeness and obligation - then No Deal awaits.

As things move forward, the threat to May once again re-emerges too. If May doesn't do what the ERG say they are minded and will try to oust her. They have nothing to lose by it.

The Tory knives are hidden behind backs one again. Waiting.

Which way will the Withdrawal Bill go? Which way will the Trade Bill later this month go?

We are running out of time and options: for either a deal or no deal.

Time has already run out for many ordinary people - they just might not know that yet, but the decision has already be made about their future.

Anyone drawing out cash prior to 29/3/19??

I will take out some emergency cash yes, and possibly also make a large transfer to my Euro account!

Why would the rebels accept a compromise when someone has promised to table the amendment untouched? Thus sending it back to the Commons to be able to vote again on it - knowing they have sufficient numbers to win.

Does the government not get this? Or are they just happy to let the Rebels be targets for abuse and intimidation rather than take responsibility themselves?

It just seems like delaying the inevitable.

It is such a mess Red, I can't understand what's going on.

Whats the point in having emergency cash if there is no food or petrol to buy anyway?

Plus, are you going to get small change as well as large wads of notes? You are not going to want to wave large dominations of notes about if you do indeed need emergency cash.

It is such a mess Red, I can't understand what's going on

Neither can Theresa May and the Brexiteers.

OnTheBall On paper we are perfect candidates for emigration (qualifications, experience, no fear of learning languages, etc). We are also the people with the worst timing ever

We moved several hundred miles across England for DH’s job, and also to be closer to his ageing parents. This was an expensive and hugely disruptive thing for us emotionally (and for me, career-wise too). We bought a horrible house that needs literally everything doing, because we thought “Oh, we can gradually renovate it over the years”. When did we do this? In Feb 2016.

As DH and I frequently remark ruefully to each other, if we had not moved then but were still in our previous location/jobs/house, what would have happened would be something like:

June 23 2016 - referendum
June 24 2016 - get very drunk
June 25 2016 - contact everybody we know at institutes/universities abroad to find jobs
By end of 2016 - gone.

Instead for the past 2 years we were busy trying to settle into our new jobs and make up for productivity lost by the move, we’re stuck with a barely sellable house, and meanwhile the health of PiLs has gone downhill so badly that DH feels we now can’t leave the country (even if the other factors weren’t in play).

Ha, Red, I'm not thinking about huge wadges of cash. I'm (probably wishfully) thinking that it won't be as apocalyptic as all that. More that ATMs might run out / banking systems might cock up for a bit.

Who the hell knows, really?

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
Remainers rejecting govt's compromise-Grieve says govt amendment is 'unacceptable' - govt has indeed made it unamendable which means they could theoretically turn it into a confidence vote - Grieve says it was 'inexplicably changed' at last minute, and was not agreed by him
Govt agreed to final version it seems without getting Grieve to sign it off - as it happens he is on Question Time tonight - Remainers warning this is a 'big, bad mistake'
Brexiteers adamant they weren't consulted on deal, and Remainers haven't been duped, all they had was verbal agreement rather than firm commitment - messy, but one senior MP says, 'this is just govt without majority'

Sarah Wollaston MP @sarahwollaston
50 seconds ago
Ah ha, so just to be clear we are now going to have to amend the ‘unamendable’ after the agreed amendable amendment acquired a sneaky sting in the tail. What a time to be alive...

Tom Wright @thomaswright08
Biggest story you're likely missing right now: Merkel in an internal party crisis in Germany (over migration) and could lose a confidence vote this week, leading to her resignation. Situation in Berlin on a knife edge.

Is this true? Big Choc? Anyone?

Elements we have had a similar timing issue, in that we bought our first house in 2016 - completed on the 10th June with a long fixed rate mortgage thinking that rates couldn't possibly drop any lower...

We also moved across the country and found new jobs, though we don't have the family ties that you do (well, we are nearer our families now, but they all voted Brexit so fuck em).

We are now two years into a massive renovation as well, though should be finished by the end of this year, at which point there should be a decent amount of equity in the place. Prices are stable / slowly rising here at the moment, but who knows after March?

Anyway, it might come down to us having to take the hit of getting out of our fixed rate early, which is galling, but it won't be an insane amount.

Has anyone watched Mr Robot? If so, season 2 is what I imagine the UK to look like in 2019/end of transition. It is Bleak.

I feel dizzy from all the back and forth of this week. Astounded that the rebels took May at her word. Flabbergasted that Kevin the Plumber from East Jesus Nowhere (well, Derbyshire) felt qualified to take to Facebook and besmirch my feed with his remarks that the govt hadn't lost, so they had therefore won.

And in the manner of an exasperated parent, I'm just disappointed.

This morning I read a guardian piece by a senior Met officer, stating that crime was a symptom of a deeper societal problem.

I was listening to R4 at lunchtime today. There was a discussion about what's been going on with France sending a ship full of migrants to Italy, and the two countries bristling at each other over who should give them asylum. The person commenting (I forgot who) mentioned that these countries are forgetting who they are, and the history of Europe being a history of refugees. That the crisis isn't political - it is moral.

From hearing this I stepped into a church to meet a couple whose wedding I'm photographing this weekend. Plastered on a smile, got excited with them (I truly am) and went about my business as usual.

It's getting much harder to shut out the grinding sense of "what the fuck are we doing!" I was always taught to lead by example, to be the change I wanted to see, and yet it all just feels so fucking futile.

From RTB
And yes, the government are likely to loose it unless they can come up with a plan which looks exactly the same.
Even I can manage that. A bit of sticky tape over the old date and stuff it in a photocopier!

Alex Wickham @WikiGuido
Brexiters saying any genuine person who doesn't want to stop Brexit would back amendment, it gives Grieve what he says he wants, but doesn't allow Remainers to overturn Brexit

Carl Gardner @carlgardner
On the drafting of subsection (5B), it seems to me the PM could avoid a vote on "no deal" simply by making her statement on 22 January 2019. What am I missing?

Goodness me. I am Scottish. I live and work in England. I've been in my workplace for four years. Today, a colleague found out - to her great astonishment - that Scotland has a different education system and thus different exams. She asked - in absolute seriousness - how Scottish people got jobs if they didn't have GCSEs. She then speculated that perhaps Scottish degrees were four years (rather than the English model of three years) to enable Scottish students to sit A levels. She's not a stupid woman. But breathtakingly ignorant. How can people not know what is going on in the other countries that make up the UK? You wonder why the SNP get exasperated!?!?! You couldn't make it up.

@bbclaurak
Not sure if govt realised rebels had tabled Grieve amendment in Lords before compromise emerged - might end up with precisely same amendment back in Commons next Weds after a massive loss of trust

@JohnRentoul
Just baffling. If the Govt had succeeded in pulling a fast one, do they think Lords & Grieve wdnt have worked it out by Monday?

As David Green wrote before, wonder if Grieve thought this might happen...............

I'm getting some chickens. stocking up on canned/dried food and plan to get some dollars and euros in cash. I don't have much money so it's difficult to do much. I really want to leave the country but DH doesn't and the children are in secondary school so it would be very disruptive for them.

The rats who started this now seem to be deserting the ship. Paul Dacre has moved from the Daily Mail so won't be screaming out the hate that helped drive this. Nigel Farage has claimed that he never said Brexit would be good for the economy. Jacob Rees-Mogg is moving money abroad. Arron Banks is leaving politics. When are the pubic going to cotton on to how they have been duped.

prettybird you can't be serious about SNP anti English, Even their leader had great delight taking the mickey about the English always on about winning the world cup 1966, ok in private pointed when in public, especially as Scotland haven't even made it to this years world cup and haven't remotely got close to winning it.

So....

Um....

Er....

What's happening exactly now??

red Indeed a crisis here in Germany:

The CDU, who have been allies of the CDU, since 1949, have always been far more conservative
However, that usually works out OK, because they are a regional party, only in Bavaria, while the CDU operates everywhere else

Now, the CSU chief is using the issue of refugees, who first registered in another EU country, to drum up support, ahead of Bavarian elections.
Interestingly, both the AfD and the SPD agree - first time for everything ! - that this is just an election maneuver with the CSU wanting to look tough and using their CDU partner / Merkel as their opposition.

The CDU heavily supports Merkel's move:
she proposed that asylum seekers who had already been rejected by Germany could be turned back at the border.
However, she wants time before the EU summit on June 28-29 to agree bi- lateral or trilateral deals with those countries where migrants tend to register before applying in Germany.

I find it interesting that this German pastor's daughter invests so much effort in getting the fairest, safest treatment for refugees and immigrants, even losing political support & reputation over the years, because of this.

A bleak contrast to the English vicar's daughter, who created the "hostile environment" and the nastiness of Yarl's Wood, using refugees, immigrants and even British people of colour as a means of looking strong, of gaining popularity.

One takes her Christianity into her politics; the other seems to have never opened the New Testament.

Brexit note
I never understand why so many Brexiters claim that Germany will force the rest of the EU to give us a special deal, yet delight in every story / rumour that the German govt is in trouble.

Germany won't enable cake, but a strong govt would be more likely to throw its support behind more minor concessions to the UK that Barnier proposes,
whereas a weak govt won't waste its political capital on a UK that is trying everyone's patience.

girlinthefireplace Yes, timing has been my concern ever since this latest row:

imo, all that could be done in February is to change the govt and either change the policy to Norway+, or revoke A50 and promise not to invoke for another 20 years say.

The EU would accept either, probably quickly, even through gritted teeth, after all this hassle - & waste of resources

Norway+ would require a transition period to work out the details, but if the UK side gets real, this could be done by Dec 2020.
In fact with a new - cooperative - UK govt, the concern about entering a new EU budget period would be much less

Brexit prepping:

I agree with North about stocking up on 3 months essentials if the chance of no-deal remains, as imo it does and he still thinks likely.

He says they've already done that: tinned food, soap, loo paper, water, any medicines etc
but I would personally wait until the New Year before starting.

However, I don't have to prep, because … I live in Germany now

Brexit in the balance

http://www.cityam.com/286670/brexit-balance

5 possible scenarios:

+Theresa May pulls a Brexit deal out of a hat (20%)
+The government opts to stay in the customs union, or something like it (30% likely)
+Brexiteers replace May without holding a snap election and take control of the negotiations (10%)
+Brexiteers replace May, fight an early election, and win a majority (30%)
+The UK walks out of the negotiations (10%)

I' plan to start buying stuff in September. I have some savings, I might move them to the same bank my mortgage is held with because I fear a banking crisis in the UK and figure a bank can't come after me for mortgage payments if they've lost all my money. In a brexit crisis I don't think the gov guarantee to refund money in the bank is worth anything.