Westmistenders: 'No Deal please; We're British'

[RedToothBrush]

It has to be said that its almost as if Tory Rebels are too polite to challenge the PM.

But the stakes are getting higher and higher as it becomes more and more apparent that it is a clear choice between a chaotic no deal situation or a BINO and there is no alternative to that.

If the Tory Rebels don't show their grit and are not prepared to be as strong in their determination as the Brexiteers - out of almost politeness and obligation - then No Deal awaits.

As things move forward, the threat to May once again re-emerges too. If May doesn't do what the ERG say they are minded and will try to oust her. They have nothing to lose by it.

The Tory knives are hidden behind backs one again. Waiting.

Which way will the Withdrawal Bill go? Which way will the Trade Bill later this month go?

We are running out of time and options: for either a deal or no deal.

Time has already run out for many ordinary people - they just might not know that yet, but the decision has already be made about their future.

In some respects declaring that from such a date ALL trade and treaties with the EU will cease would help companies/the market because although there would be one hell of a shock, people would know where they were going

If all treaties cease (this includes trade arrangements with other countries we are party to because of the EU) there is maximum uncertainty, because we won't know where we are going at all.

User - The government has been a pile of shit, ditto the opposition. Some MPs have been pointing this out - ie doing their jobs and trying to hold the government to account. The civil service, judges, HoL etc have all been pointing out the problems (damm experts that they are). There is no plan, no idea of what Brexit is and that is entirely the fault of May et al. There is no one direction to pull in as each Brexiteer is pulling in their own direction. The remainers pointing out problems - GFA/SM/CU/economy/HR etc - is what we should be doing. As no one in gov seems to think about anything but the party and their own arses.

whether the pound/oil price has been lower etc in the past 25yrs is irrelevant.
Since the Brexit vote the uk had dropped from the top of the g7 growth table to the bottom, eu growth last year exceeded that of the uk by more than 1%

the uk contribution to the eu is around 1% of gdp - ie we have already lost more than our eu contribution
global growth is back above crash levels, uk is still less than half.

i work for a global it services company, every region has had 5 quarters of significant growth with the exception of the uk, which has shrunk - pre brexit the uk usually led the internal growth measures - annually this was 11% growth relative to a -9% shrinkage in the uk. Seriously bad.

all this is effectively hidden with brexiteer claims that project fear predictions havent hsppened - they have, just open your eyes.

Don't let one poster hog the discussion with their false positivity and exhortations to "pull together".

These threads have been good for meaningful debate and useful sources of information.

Informed and thoughtful posters like Corcory and howabout had some interesting different Leave perspectives and were worth engaging with. More recent ones, less so

The UK, economy at least is doing the equivalent of a parachute jump.
The main problem is the government forgot to put the parachute on so you (we) are now free falling.
The choice now is to aim for the concrete or towards some thick bushes that may break the fall.
Both ways will hurt, a lot.
The fall in the Pound may make the UK attractive to investors, good. BUT without the protections of the EU (mentioned by others previously) wages and so on will be at the whim of the investors who, seeing that UK is 'on the run' can exploit the market if they wish.
You may get lucky and former 'colonial conquests' may chose to work on reasonable terms (to the UK) but retribution for the way some countries were exploited by Britain in the past may be sweet revenge.
If you think this is far fetched, consider the 'difficulties' with the NI border and how that is still causing problems after so many years.
The practical implementations of a couple of lines in a treaty are so powerful.
The problems don't have to be so overt, just preferential recruitment (no protection from EU) which would cause tensions. A given company can state that all management will be from XXX background and the British can have all the menial jobs.
This may sound a bit apocalyptic but with the strong leadership that the UK has(n't) at the moment anything can happen.

Excellent points made by frankiestein

Shift over then.

@missmoon
My point would be that for crashing out spectacularly would inform many businesses that the UK in it's current state (and failing gradually as we write) is not the place with a long term future so would make any move to get out in whichever way it can. It would not all go that way of course, the nature of work will change, the old adage about having lemons, make lemonade' but having good jobs that people would aspire to may go.
As I said on this or probably previous thread, Britain COULD leave the EU if it had done it's homework and discussed it rationally with Brussels. Instead it has flounced out in a melodramatic way using spin and lies from all sides to inflame the arguments.
If this is not treason then I am not sure what is.

Completely agree prettybird with your post at 11.23.
And also agree with Soubry yesterday, that they have to 'suck it up'.
They are definitely losing public opinion support they had as well as business support, and I have now lost patience with them.
MrsR's suggestion yesterday about what they and their horses should do is my new motto.

😁

The UK is no longer an attractive place for FDI (Foreign Direct Investment), even with the reduced value of the £.

Note the collapse in FDI in 2017 - and the continued downward projection (The increases in 2016 were due to previously committed investments)

Dh's job used to be attracting Inward Investment to Scotland - I'm glad he chose not to renew his contract last year! (maybe he can go back into that field at a future date when Scotland has a different future ) I know in the last few months of his job, and at events like MIPIM, Brexit uncertainty, and in particular the risk of a Hard Brexit, made his job well nigh impossible.

Woman -They are definitely losing public opinion support they had as well as business support, and I have now lost patience with them.

Well if they are losing support they only just lost it on Monday to Wednesday of this week.

Astonishingly, at the end of the 8 June week, according to YouGov survey the Conservatives were still on 44%, two points up on the past week.

I honestly think a party political broadcast of TM sinking her teeth into a cute fluffy kitten would still leave the Tories in the lead.

Labour were down two points on 37%, with the Lib Dems down a point to 8%.

Labour is down because they're not doing anything. They're basically "me tooing" their way towards Brexit, so why vote for a non-alternative?

The Lib Dems have gone very quiet since Fallon went.

The Tories are the only party who seems to be doing something, even if they are actually several factions covering government, opposition, and the ERG.

I’m feeling pretty despairing today. The longer this mess continues, the more I feel like I want to get out of the country altogether.

Is anyone else making serious plans to leave? I’m thinking about my employment options.

OurGov...'Are we the peoples front of Judea or the judean peoples front?'
(incorrectly quoted from Monty Python).
Where's Jon Snow with his 'shitometer' when you need it to show how deep it is getting and explain in a slightly patronising way.

Why does anyone take notice of what Yougov says?

There are so many multiple accounts, bots, shills etc. on there. They do not represent a genuine view of the British public.

In order to make my view known, I have first to join, then remember to reply to the polls they send me. That alone is going to skew the result of any poll they send me because only those with time on their hands and a genuinely strong desire to vote in that poll can be relied upon.

In fact, I can’t remember the last time they asked me what political party I support. I must have missed that one...

I hope you're right Tanith

Other polls- Survation‘s topline figures are CON 41%(nc), LAB 40%(nc), LDEM 9%(+1).

"This is since mid May. Like YouGov, Survation have shown a steady position for the last couple of months, but there’s an obvious contrast in terms of what that position is – YouGov have a steady small Tory lead, Survation are showing the parties steadily neck-and-neck. As I’ve said before, there’s not an obvious methodological reason."

ukpollingreport.co.uk

Apart from the loud shouts about being lied to and let down, repealing A50 and saying sorry to the EU for being a bit of an arse NOW, MIGHT be judged eventually as the best option by future historians.
The sheer magnitude of integration between EU members is staggering and in a way perhaps not financially viable to 'exit'. How many lawyers on their salary will it cost to unpick 40 odd years of agreements and then rewrite new ones and how long will it take? Of course it would have to happen almost instantly as the whole of British and worldwide industry can't 'go on holiday' for 10 years while they think about it. A bit like building a bridge while standing on it, some things can't happen.

Why does anyone take notice of what Yougov says?

I think a better question is why bother with polls that aren't YouGov ? Bearing in mind YouGov were the only big pollster to call last years GE as it pretty much happened - and they were getting a lot of flack before for it too.

Can't speak for anyone else, but I can't vote for a party that will simply use it as "proof" that the people want Brexit.

Do I feel reassured that all the UK political parties will hit the concrete together (from my parachute analogy)?
Homebase (as owned by Australian Bunnings) was sold for £1 recently IIRC.
Maybe Mrs May will sell the UK to China for £50 and call it a deal?

The China reference may not be TOO stupid as they have been building cities and infra structure all around the South China sea and elsewhere 'indebting' many countries for their 'generosity'.

Thing to bear in mind with yougov - their none election polls discard the don't knows when they calculate the headline.

The don't knows have been running consistently at above 20%.

They only add in and calucate when we have a GE.

The thing to look for is not the headline in this interim polls. It's the trends.

Anyway.

Jack Maidment @ jrmaidment
^Ooosh. Senior Tory Tom Tugendhat says meaningful vote doesn't need beefing up because if the Govt loses it's done anyway.
"The meaningful vote is going to be either the Govt’s deal is accepted... or it isn’t accepted, in which case frankly there is going to be a new government.”^

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/06/14/theresa-mays-government-will-fall-mps-reject-brexit-deal-senior/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Theresa May's Government will fall if MPs reject Brexit deal, senior Tory predicts as PM attempts to appease Remainer rebels

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
Brexit obsessive diary dates - 5pm, today's deadline for compromise amendment, Withdrawal bill in Lords on Monday, then back in Commons on Wednesday, then Trade Bill, big potential bust up, rumoured to be week starting July 9th, which is also NATO summit and Trump visit.....

Imagine. Trump turns up to meet May who has just been 1922ed...

User The person who has really scared me with his warnings is longterm Leaver Richard North,
who has been campaigning for about 20 years and still thinks the Leave decision was great victory

However, he daily produces highly knowledgeable and referenced articles about the disastrous consequences of the Tory Brexit shambles and the policy to leave the EEA / Single Market too.

I recommend you read what one of the most knowledgeable people in the country about Brexit is warning about.
He was the first to publish how Brexit has been hijacked by the disaster capitalists, who are serving up the UK to be looted.
Also the first to warn what becoming a 3rd country means, with the trade access & agencies lost

He keeps saying that Uk business remains largely ignorant of the serious consequences to them, so have not really reacted yet.

www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86901
More worryingly, many have not prepared, e.g. his visit to address a board meeting yesterday

http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86900
Yesterday's blog

http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86405

"May's decision to leave its Single Market.
the disruption to our trade would not just be a car crash or a train wreck, it would be a whole fleet of jumbo jets crashing down on our entire economy."

http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86370
"One can genuinely see a state of emergency being declared, with the Army called out to escort truck-loads of food to besieged supermarkets"

http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86375

"chaos at our ports"
"bare shelves in our supermarkets"

@Bigchoc
I am losing the plot (OK I can as I am just me and not trying to run a country).
These 'bad things' being predicted by RNorth, are they likely to happen if we stay in, or crash out or just in general while the government play 'ring a ring of roses'? (not actually getting any deal for GB).