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Brexit

Westministenders: Brexmeggadon Redux.

990 replies

RedToothBrush · 03/06/2018 16:36

The last thread started about how the Withdrawal Bill was in tatters with The Rebel Forces feeling confident of staying in the Customs Union and there seemed to be a growing backlash towards the hostile environment and the need to reduce immigration.

This thread starts with the revelation this week that Farage has claimed that he never said the UK would be better off financially under Brexit, just that we would be self-governing and the Brexmeggadon Planning Revelation.

The Sunday Times has published a story about No Deal Brexit as senior civil servants have drawn up scenarios for David Davis. If you remember the minister responsible for No Deal is actually Steve Baker. That’s ERG founder Steve Baker. And if you remember he is facing queries from Brexiteers about whether he is truly committed to Brexit on the basis of his recent actions and comments.

There were reported that his plans for No Deal were stalling and proving impossible.

And today we have the Brexmeggadon ‘Project Fear’ article with three levels of jeopardy: Mild, Severe and ‘Oh my fucking God’.

Suddenly all our talk of stockpiling on Westministenders are starting to look rather prudent and enlightened. Ian Dunt’s book is looking like a Brexit Manual. David Allen Green is just standing there going ‘Well’. And George Osbourne is maniacally laughing his head off somewhere.

In the Level 2 Disaster Planning we are looking at Dover collapsing on Day One, food would run out within days and hospitals would run out of medicine within weeks. Petrol would run out within week two too.

As I’ve point out before in the worst case, the government has insufficient police and army to manage a worse case scenario.
Of course this is so explosive, its only been shared with a handful of ministers and are ‘locked in a safe’ and The Sunday Times don’t tell you what is in the ‘Bremeggadon’ scenario.

Or you could just read social media for the ‘scaremongering’.

We now have political attempts to FOI or force the publication of these reports to look forward too. The irony being that in this case the government will have a legitimate case that it would be against national security to release them. Of course they can’t actually admit that either!

Naturally Cabinet ministers and DeXeu has dismissed the article as not true. What else could they do?

Only for a ‘government source’ to claim that the denial was ‘untrue’ to Sam Coates of The Times.

Matthew Holehouse pointed out that the government can’t say for certain what impact no deal will have on medicine supply chains, because review on this isn’t due to finish its “initial” work until “late spring 2018”. Of course we are now in Summer 2018 and its still not been completed. Which obviously bodes well.

And there is talk of Chilcot style inquiries into Brexit sometime in the future. Westministenders is once again way ahead on that score…

----------------------

Meanwhile over in the Labour corner, growing pressure has been mounting on Corbyn. This week has seen the launch of a Corbyn supporting left wing pressure group, comprised of grassroots and trade unions to stop him supporting the harakiri of Tory Brexiteers.

We wait with tepid enthusiasm and sceptical levels of optimism for Corbyn’s climb down. St Jeremy knows what he wants...

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What does all this talk all mean? I think its difficult to read as much different to the media catching up with what the sane – who have a modicum of understanding of what trade deals, the custom union and the single market actually are - have been saying for sometime. Reality can’t be spun forever. At some point, you have to start preparing the public for the coming shit storm or the inevitable u-turn. This seems likely to be the move to kill off No Deal once and for all.

In terms of a ‘possible civil war’ under Brexmeggadon, its noticeable key Brexiteers are backing away from the cake. That doesn’t smack of civil unrest, that smacks of cowardice and a lack of Brexiteer leadership as no one is truly prepared to nail themselves to the mast as the ship starts to sink.

I also don’t think people will blame other people in the event of no food and no medicine and no medicine. I think people will be fairly unified in blaming those in charge who caused ‘No Deal’.
Oh and The American Trade Wars have began.

Ronald Regan ‘We should beware of the demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends—weakening our economy, our national security, and the entire free world—all while cynically waving the American flag.’

Hmmm. Sounds a lot like Brexit doesn't it?

Turnips anyone?
Planting season is late June to early July.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
33
RedToothBrush · 05/06/2018 17:47

Sorry that's I don't agree

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 05/06/2018 18:12

When I think of all his lies, his racist insults to other countries & people,
Heathrow seems such an insignificant issue, where he hasn't cocked up or insulted anyone - so far -
It seems strange that is the first serious jeopardy to his seat

However, thinking about it, his lies & insults were against foreigners,
whereas Heathrow affects mainly Brits - and especially more the better off half of the country

WifeofDarth · 05/06/2018 18:14

Is anyone vulnerable while Jez leads the opposition? I thought Greening might be but conservatives did pretty well in locals so i think she's sitting pretty for as long as he is around.

DGRossetti · 05/06/2018 18:24

I don't think Boris will stand in the next GE.

When was the last time a Prime Minister wasn't an MP ?

Oh, yes, Alec Douglas-Home (sp ?) ... from "the Golden Years" ...

ChardonnaysPrettySister · 05/06/2018 19:09

Goldsmith will be gone.

Mightybanhammer · 05/06/2018 19:29

IRENE - I'm very interested in your thoughts on JDD on the R North blog.

I too took with a huge grain of salt - not least because of the massive infringements of the Code he was committing.

But on a contract, who knows? I've taken time to read many of his posts and they do seem to be internally consistent if extreme. He also is very likeable in a quirky sort of way.

He's said, inter alia, that he is part Irish, a retired business man who set up an IT company in Ireland in his youth. Public school, Oxbridge, LSE, PhD.

Now works on WTO matters, no longer Dexeu., but DIT I presume. Five year contract. Is moving to Ireland in March 2019 as he is convinced there will be apocalyspe here, basically.

I really want to believe he is a deluded fantasist but...

What are the inconsistencies you have spotted?

Spudlet · 05/06/2018 19:39

Have been dipping in and out of these very interesting threads but not posting -it's just all too alarming for words. However, I was thinking about seeing if we could join the march on the 23rd - would we be able to march then slope off without listening to the speakers? It's just that ds is v small and probably wouldn't enjoy sitting still for too long... I've never done anything like this before, but have been watching this debacle unfold in horror, and since my MP is useless, this might be my only way to do something. Assuming we can get a dogsitter at short notice, that is.

BigChocFrenzy · 05/06/2018 19:39

North & JDD pretty much agree on what no-deal would mean: Whoops Apocalypse

it's just that JDD adds more - if we believe him - about govt delusions that would prevent a no deal, as well as contingency plans for the apocalypse

North gives 90% chance of no deal, which imo is too gloomy
BUT
North's assessment of what no-deal means is difficult to fault, because he gives proper source references, not to media articles

BigChocFrenzy · 05/06/2018 19:42

So although I think / hope that North & JDD are both over-estimating the likelihood of no deal - which is politics -

I have to admit they seem correct about the consequences if this really happens - which is fully referenced to source material

PineappleSunrise · 05/06/2018 19:43

From what I can see, the only reasons to doubt JDD are that he doesn't behave like a career civil servant. The civil servants I've worked with are very, very discreet when it comes to gov policy and implementation - they will NOT blab their personal views on blogs or social media.

However, some consultants - especially from the private sector, where there is no culture of neutrality on what the leadership is doing - can be much less discrete. JDD sounds like one of those to me.

BigChocFrenzy · 05/06/2018 19:47

SCORCHING attack on the govt, Brexit alarm bells sounding from the Freight Transport Association
(the UK’s leading logistics trade body )

The first signs of a major industry sounding the alarm sirens
should be headline news across the country
but NO major media outlet has publicised this so far.

and the FTA haven't really mentioned food imports yet …

https://fta.co.uk/media/press-releases/2018/june/brexit-britain-on-the-road-to-nowhere-says-fta

“But the real show stopper is that, under European law,

unless an agreement is reached, there will only be 103 international haulage Permits to cover the 300,000 journeys made by British trucks to Europe each year.

The logistics industry is being asked to decide who would get a Permit to Drive if there are not enough to go around
– in effect, being asked to destroy the businesses of its international haulage members.

In the event of a No Deal Brexit it will be the logistics industry, which operates 24/7 365 days a year, that will have to pick up the pieces of the failure of politicians to agree.

No doubt we will face the unwarranted ire of consumers and businesses if goods cannot be delivered on time.

“The industry’s frustration with the lack of progress is building daily.

Logistics businesses simply cannot answer their customers’ questions about how they will move goods after Brexit.

Manufacturers and retailers are losing faith and fear that
post-Brexit Britain is at real risk of becoming nothing more than a series of road blocks at our ports and airports.

What is really making our members angry is that these real, legitimate concerns
are simply being dismissed by some members of the Government on the basis that it will not be in the EU’s interests to impose them.
< they need us more etc >

This is a reckless attitude to take and is playing chicken with crucial parts of the British economy and the livelihoods of the seven million Britons in the industry.

lonelyplanetmum · 05/06/2018 19:56

However, I was thinking about seeing if we could join the march on the 23rd - would we be able to march then slope off without listening to the speakers? It's just that ds is v small and probably wouldn't enjoy sitting still for too long.

Yes it's easy to peel off at any point. We dipped in and out for teas, coffees and ice creams. Last time we stayed for speakers but this time we have a concert to go to later on.
Plenty of people attended the previous marches with children in back packs and pushchairs.

RealityHasALiberalBias · 05/06/2018 20:08

Pineapple

Perhaps JDD just thinks this is serious enough to warrant the lack of discretion?

Dobby1sAFreeElf · 05/06/2018 20:13

From @faisalislam about Dutch Government issuing advice to car manufacturers to reduce their reliance on UK parts
twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1004060420234186753

Dobby1sAFreeElf · 05/06/2018 20:15

Sorry, I was reading two things at once. The advice is to all exporters.
Car industry here not happy of course.

BigChocFrenzy · 05/06/2018 20:18

JDD has a close-up view of a national suicide
and it's not pretty
In fact, terrifying

imo, after being a successful businessman, he is absolutely bricking it
about being involved in a national disaster, helpless to change what is happening as the govt prepares to slit our throats

Or like in Blazing Saddles, the govt threatens that the country will shoot itself in the head, unless the EU caves in.
Scary to watch from close quarters, if you are sane & knowledgeable

KennDodd · 05/06/2018 20:25

Spudlet

Please come and bring friends. The marches I've been on are always really friendly. People even bring dogs!

HesterThrale · 05/06/2018 20:46

A change of position by Labour?

Labour tables amendments to Brexit legislation to force ministers to secure new single market deal

labour.org.uk/press/labour-tables-amendments-brexit-legislation-force-ministers-secure-new-single-market-deal/

Peregrina · 05/06/2018 20:52

....these real, legitimate concerns are simply being dismissed by some members of the Government on the basis that it will not be in the EU’s interests to impose them. < they need us more etc >

They might not impose the rules because it would be to their disadvantage to do so, but, and it's a big but, without the legal authority to waive the rules then it only needs a handful of officials in the EU to work to rule, for us to be well and truly up a gum tree, without any legal redress.

BigChocFrenzy · 05/06/2018 21:19

Not really a matter of EU officials lower down the chain working to rule:

The EU doesn't have the option of not enforcing WTO rules about trade with 3rd countries, which the UK would automatically be, in the absence of an EEA / EFTA-type Brexit deal.

Also, in the absence of such a deal, the MFN clauses in the existing EU trade agreements with other 3rd countries mean that those countries can demand any extra trade concessions that the UK receives.

BigChocFrenzy · 05/06/2018 21:23

One minute after Brexit, the Uk won't even be in many of the databanks wich would be referred to, when UK goods are presented for import into the EU.

So Computer Says No.

North says it takes 6 months minimum - which would be after becoming a 3rd country - for the UK to complete all the formalities and get fully entered into the databanks

BigChocFrenzy · 05/06/2018 21:27

European businesses advised to avoid using British parts ahead of Brexit

So not just the Netherlands

https://news.sky.com/story/european-businesses-advised-to-avoid-using-british-parts-ahead-of-brexit-11395908

That warning has also been underpinned by the EU's own technical notice on this issue.
"As of withdrawal date, the UK becomes a third country. UK inputs are considered 'non-originating',"

A leading car industry executive told Sky News that not using UK parts for EU exports would be a "catastrophe" for the British industry.

Andrew Varga of Seetru, a manufacturer of safety valves in Bristol, said that last autumn, many existing customers showed caution in taking UK parts into new models.
"There was an 'oh my god moment' last August. Our customers don't have the infrastructure to manage UK certificates of origin,"

Spudlet · 05/06/2018 21:28

KennDodd I don't think London is ready for our dog Grin And he's a bit old and neurotic, he wouldn't cope, bless him. He's never actually been to a city, come to think of it! But we think FiL might have him - DH is busy devising witty placards as we speak, and I'm wondering where my Erasmus t-shirt has gone, and whether I will still fit into it... pretty sure I have a shoe-horn somewhere 🤔

mathanxiety · 05/06/2018 21:33

I am not sure a cc rationing system couldn't be organized and wouldn't work. In the US that is how food stamps work. Households get their $$$ amount added to the card monthly, and when doing a grocery shop only allowed items are recognised by the card. Items like alcohol must be paid for separately. When the money loaded on the card runs out a household has to wait until the start of the next month to use it. The food stamp system could be adapted but of course it's possible the UK would try as usual to reinvent the wheel.

The real problem with rationing is the black market, rise of criminal gangs, Al Capone style. The infrastructure of that side of things is already in place.

I would be very concerned about the non specifically 'police officers' doing policing. Are there outfits like Blackwater or the companies that run immigrant deportation centres already up and training, do we suppose? Who might these companies be accountable to? We are potentially talking about a mercenary policing force, or forces.

IrenetheQuaint · 05/06/2018 22:10

@Mightybanhammer - I've read a fairly limited number of JDD's posts and have no inside Brexit knowledge myself, so you should take my opinion with a pinch of salt. However, my reasons for being suspicious of him are:

  1. some really wild claims - most notably a year or so ago that the UK government had actually printed ration cards for all UK residents at some secret West Country location. I rubbished this claim for various reasons at the time, and see that he has now replaced it with the somewhat more plausible claim (from BigChocFrenzy's post yesterday) that "rationing would be electronically controlled, with the govt issuing everyone something like a credit card loaded for food but: the cc consultant brought in said it would not be possible before 2025"
  1. massive variation in the work he's supposed to be doing - he once posted that he was leading work in a very specific area related to (I think) customs; this doesn't tie in with him developing Doomsday scenarios at DExEU or WTO rules at DIT (remember, consultants are hired at great expense for specific expertise so don't jump around as much as career civil servants)
  1. ludicrous indiscretion; if his claims about himself and his work are all accurate he would be incredibly easy for colleagues to identify, and any consultants doing nationally sensitive work on Brexit will have signed confidentiality clauses. There is no advantage and every possible disadvantage for him in being so easily identifiable. If he wanted to blow the whistle about Brexit and change the public conversation it would be much safer and more effective to establish a back channel with one of the better newspapers (or just feed stories to Richard North direct), rather than posting repeatedly in the comments section of a rather geeky blog
  1. he posts frequently and often during working hours - while allegedly working full tilt on urgent issues in an open plan office.
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