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Brexit

Westministenders: Brexmeggadon Redux.

990 replies

RedToothBrush · 03/06/2018 16:36

The last thread started about how the Withdrawal Bill was in tatters with The Rebel Forces feeling confident of staying in the Customs Union and there seemed to be a growing backlash towards the hostile environment and the need to reduce immigration.

This thread starts with the revelation this week that Farage has claimed that he never said the UK would be better off financially under Brexit, just that we would be self-governing and the Brexmeggadon Planning Revelation.

The Sunday Times has published a story about No Deal Brexit as senior civil servants have drawn up scenarios for David Davis. If you remember the minister responsible for No Deal is actually Steve Baker. That’s ERG founder Steve Baker. And if you remember he is facing queries from Brexiteers about whether he is truly committed to Brexit on the basis of his recent actions and comments.

There were reported that his plans for No Deal were stalling and proving impossible.

And today we have the Brexmeggadon ‘Project Fear’ article with three levels of jeopardy: Mild, Severe and ‘Oh my fucking God’.

Suddenly all our talk of stockpiling on Westministenders are starting to look rather prudent and enlightened. Ian Dunt’s book is looking like a Brexit Manual. David Allen Green is just standing there going ‘Well’. And George Osbourne is maniacally laughing his head off somewhere.

In the Level 2 Disaster Planning we are looking at Dover collapsing on Day One, food would run out within days and hospitals would run out of medicine within weeks. Petrol would run out within week two too.

As I’ve point out before in the worst case, the government has insufficient police and army to manage a worse case scenario.
Of course this is so explosive, its only been shared with a handful of ministers and are ‘locked in a safe’ and The Sunday Times don’t tell you what is in the ‘Bremeggadon’ scenario.

Or you could just read social media for the ‘scaremongering’.

We now have political attempts to FOI or force the publication of these reports to look forward too. The irony being that in this case the government will have a legitimate case that it would be against national security to release them. Of course they can’t actually admit that either!

Naturally Cabinet ministers and DeXeu has dismissed the article as not true. What else could they do?

Only for a ‘government source’ to claim that the denial was ‘untrue’ to Sam Coates of The Times.

Matthew Holehouse pointed out that the government can’t say for certain what impact no deal will have on medicine supply chains, because review on this isn’t due to finish its “initial” work until “late spring 2018”. Of course we are now in Summer 2018 and its still not been completed. Which obviously bodes well.

And there is talk of Chilcot style inquiries into Brexit sometime in the future. Westministenders is once again way ahead on that score…

----------------------

Meanwhile over in the Labour corner, growing pressure has been mounting on Corbyn. This week has seen the launch of a Corbyn supporting left wing pressure group, comprised of grassroots and trade unions to stop him supporting the harakiri of Tory Brexiteers.

We wait with tepid enthusiasm and sceptical levels of optimism for Corbyn’s climb down. St Jeremy knows what he wants...

----------------------

What does all this talk all mean? I think its difficult to read as much different to the media catching up with what the sane – who have a modicum of understanding of what trade deals, the custom union and the single market actually are - have been saying for sometime. Reality can’t be spun forever. At some point, you have to start preparing the public for the coming shit storm or the inevitable u-turn. This seems likely to be the move to kill off No Deal once and for all.

In terms of a ‘possible civil war’ under Brexmeggadon, its noticeable key Brexiteers are backing away from the cake. That doesn’t smack of civil unrest, that smacks of cowardice and a lack of Brexiteer leadership as no one is truly prepared to nail themselves to the mast as the ship starts to sink.

I also don’t think people will blame other people in the event of no food and no medicine and no medicine. I think people will be fairly unified in blaming those in charge who caused ‘No Deal’.
Oh and The American Trade Wars have began.

Ronald Regan ‘We should beware of the demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends—weakening our economy, our national security, and the entire free world—all while cynically waving the American flag.’

Hmmm. Sounds a lot like Brexit doesn't it?

Turnips anyone?
Planting season is late June to early July.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
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GlassOfPort · 11/06/2018 14:13

On another note, I have just emailed my (Labour) MP to urge them to vote for EEA membership tomorrow.

I would encourage other fellow-lurkers who are represented by Lab or sane Cons to do the same. It can be easily done through www.writetothem.com/.

You don't need to be as articulate and eloquent as other mumsnetters here (I certainly am not!), it's the volume of emails that will make MPs think

DGRossetti · 11/06/2018 14:16

If he's relying on a "fruit of the poison tree" defence in the UK, he could be in for a shock.

UK courts are more than happy to allow illegally obtained material into evidence.

if he doesn't like it, he can sue (which is the Lord Denning recommended route, if I have my doddery old judges correct).

RedToothBrush · 11/06/2018 14:17

I wonder about why, if the Brexiteers very nearly took out May on Thursday, why they didn't.

If that was a crunch point, why not.

Did they lack the numbers? Or do the rebels lack the numbers?

Or do they think the best shot of derailing Brexit and have a catastrophic Brexiteers, iso dethrone May at a crucial time, just to make it impossible to do a deal?

I am beginning to wonder.

OP posts:
DGRossetti · 11/06/2018 14:18

I am trying to 'buy' things from 5 companies and they can't even be bothered to reply.

You need to phone and actually speak to someone. Apparently email/social media is a little too modern. And answerphones ... well no one really uses them, do they ?

Peregrina · 11/06/2018 14:30

I have certainly used House of Fraser stores, which were very often known by a different name, so you weren't always aware that they were. I have also heard the suggestion that at one time the stores owned the premises and the sites they were on. They sold these off to realise some quick cash. These were then sold on to other people, with the result that they completely lost control and were at the mercy of unknown landlords far away e.g. in China, whopping up the rents.

DGRossetti · 11/06/2018 14:44

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/09/stop-boris-theresa-may-mps-backing-crucial-votes-brexit

Rebel Tory MPs who want to keep the UK in the EU customs union and single market appeared on Saturday to be backing away from defeating Theresa May in crucial parliamentary votes this week – because they fear the resulting humiliation could threaten her leadership and let in Boris Johnson.

(contd)

SPOILER ALERT: If you're looking for the bit where they are considering what's best for the UK, then you're just plain out of luck.

54321go · 11/06/2018 14:46

DGR
Phoned one, things are moving. One was a website that crashed while I was 'mid purchase' which stayed unobtainable for an hour or so, the last is solicitors. Is there a 'snoring' smiley? (12 months and waiting).
Back to Brexit. It looks 'choreographed' and there will be a 'jump' at a crucial moment. Shame more effort wasn't put into actual negotiations.

DGRossetti · 11/06/2018 14:48

I've posted elsewhere, but every time we went into HoF, they didn't have what we wanted. Not in an "out of stock" way. In a "What the fuck is that ?" way. Pretty much the same way John Lewis is now.

Go into our nearest JL, and you can't move for coffee machines. Or rather Coffee Machines (their price demands capitals).

Now try and find a milk frothing thermometer. Or indeed a milk frothing jug.

Guess where we bought ours ?

(To be fair, just for lolz, last time we were in town, we had to go through John Lewis because of the parking layout. They now do a jug/thermometer set for £32. We paid £5 inc P&P .....)

Don't get me started on knives and pans ...

RealityHasALiberalBias · 11/06/2018 14:52

I've emailed my MP about the votes this week. She's Labour and a Corbynite, but fingers crossed...

Peregrina · 11/06/2018 14:57

The Guardian at the weekend had an article about how unnecessary secrecy was hampering the Brexit talks. It made me wonder, is some of the secrecy to stop the ERG people getting their hands on the information? Or is that wishful thinking on my behalf, and it's as much to do with the way Theresa May operates?

DGRossetti · 11/06/2018 15:16

The Guardian at the weekend had an article about how unnecessary secrecy was hampering the Brexit talks. It made me wonder, is some of the secrecy to stop the ERG people getting their hands on the information? Or is that wishful thinking on my behalf, and it's as much to do with the way Theresa May operates?

A better way to view it might be to ask when has UK government not cloaked itself in secrecy ? If we're starting a sweepstakes, put me down for "never".

DGRossetti · 11/06/2018 15:19

Bad form to follow my own post Grin but it took US freedom of information to reveal what happened in the Thorpe case.

Say what you will about the US, they generally take a stance that if it's paid for by the taxpayer, the taxpayer has a right to know. Compare NASA with the UK space agency. Which is so secret few people even know it exists. (Which means fewer to miss it when it's sidelined Sad).

DGRossetti · 11/06/2018 15:28

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44438846

Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) has said it will move production of its Land Rover Discovery SUV from Birmingham to Slovakia from next year.

The Solihull factory, where the Discovery is manufactured, will be used to build a new generation of Range Rover models, the firm said.

The company warned that there may be some job losses in the UK as a result.

(contd)

Danniz · 11/06/2018 15:52

What do people make of the suggestion made on Radio 4 yesterday that the Labour proposed amendment to the Withdrawal Bill - saying that the UK should stay in "a" customs union - may be designed to ensure that there are not enough votes against the conservatives' proposals for no customs union? Because every vote in favour of "a" customs union, which in the absence of freedom of movement the EU would never agree to, takes away from a genuinely useful vote against the Tory no custom union plans?

Danniz · 11/06/2018 15:54

Did anyone listen to the lunchtime play on Radio 4 today? Set very shortly post-Brexit, and seriously scary. Military on the street / checkpoints / bombings / Scotland declaring independence and closing the border / nobody prepared to do anything unless for cash.

BolleauxtoBankers · 11/06/2018 16:20

I hope that's an apocalyptic vision, Danniz. Sad

DGRossetti · 11/06/2018 16:27

Scotland declaring independence and closing the border

Which was the opening to My Great Unpublished Novel from 1987 ... (I still have it in it's original Wordstar format Smile)

Danniz · 11/06/2018 16:40

I've just emailed my MP (yet again, he only responds if he agrees with me - conservative remainer). Have urged him to stand up and be counted, do what is right for constituents. Have emailed round a few people with the www.writetothem.com/. link to ask them to do the same. Amazing that generally people strongly in favour of remain appear to think it beyond the pale to actually write to their MP or attend a demo.

DGRossetti · 11/06/2018 16:43

Amazing that generally people strongly in favour of remain appear to think it beyond the pale to actually write to their MP or attend a demo.

The will of the people, innit ?

Sorry:

THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE

54321go · 11/06/2018 16:45

Only a couple more pages until we need RedTB to come up with another thread title, what's it to be next?
The return of the Brexit, The Brexit strikes back, Brexit unleashed, the country the world forgot, Mrs No. (My name is Bond, No bond).

BigChocFrenzy · 11/06/2018 17:01

JDD returned to RNorth blog today
reporting on his briefing of the Cabinet on WTO rules and agreements that all countries – including the UK - must comply with

http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86898

“Finished a Cabinet meeting off to Geneva
We are going nowhere and we know the EU will walk away in 2 weeks”

< If so, only from trade talks I hope, not the rest of the Withdrawal Agreement ?
but possibly the UK side will storm out of everything after this
and then it’s the looong summer break for both sides anyway - and you thought teachers have long hols !-
Probably no UK U-turns – if any – to enable Norway+ until after the Tory party conference, so late September
Maybe we’ll have to crash out first, then beg for Norway+ after a few weeks apocalypse >

Ministers’ responses included this gem on:
"That means the EU can't give us a unique deal' 'thats rubbish oh hang on you are right'

Blog comments on this:
“a unique deal can be done - it just needs to be a registered FTA”

JDD:
“Yes they have finally got their heads around this
And that it can only be done AFTER we leave...in around 6 years”

Tanith · 11/06/2018 17:04

“nobody prepared to do anything unless for cash.”

They won’t be accepting cash: the value of the pound will be in free-fall. It’ll be swapping labour or goods, or relying on goodwill.

BigChocFrenzy · 11/06/2018 17:05

Chris Johns (Irish Times) : Semantics of Brexit means nobody knows what’s going on

Excellent analysis of why the fight is BINO vs no deal atm

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/chris-johns-semantics-of-brexit-means-nobody-knows-what-s-going-on-1.3525928

If there is to be no border on this island and no border down the middle of the Irish Sea
then the UK has to remain within both the customs union and, most of all, the single market.

That’s what those words mean.
No matter how hard the British try, the words can’t be made to mean anything else

There aren’t many ways the UK can do all this, save embracing the old “Norway option”

Most of the Brexiteers have worked this out.

Which is why some are issuing coded messages to the effect that crashing out is what they now desire,
or is a price they are prepared to pay to achieve their dream.
Some are even quite explicit with their words:
“Just leave” is becoming a new slogan.

Most serious analysts concluded some time ago that Brexit, no matter how obviously harmful, is unstoppable

That’s largely a function of the original democratic vote (albeit dangerously flawed)
and the fact that Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is as hard a Brexiteer as they come.

Without any effective political opposition in Westminster to Brexit is hard to see how it can be stopped.

it can’t be stressed enough that the UK’s political situation looks extremely unstable.
Everything from the status of the prime minister to the position of Northern Ireland in the union looks to be in play.

That, of course, is economically damaging:
so much is not being done, particularly capital investment.

WifeofDarth · 11/06/2018 17:12

54321 only a couple more pages until we need RedTB to come up with another thread title, what's it to be next?

How about "No Deal please, we're British"?

DGRossetti · 11/06/2018 17:14

Whats for dinner tonight ?

Pan fried sea bass (Greece/Turkey)
with
Rice (imported, but doesn't say where from)
Beans (ditto)

and a nice Carta Roja Jumilla. (Spanish Wine).

Hmm