Westministenders: Brexmeggadon Redux.

[RedToothBrush]

The last thread started about how the Withdrawal Bill was in tatters with The Rebel Forces feeling confident of staying in the Customs Union and there seemed to be a growing backlash towards the hostile environment and the need to reduce immigration.

This thread starts with the revelation this week that Farage has claimed that he never said the UK would be better off financially under Brexit, just that we would be self-governing and the Brexmeggadon Planning Revelation.

The Sunday Times has published a story about No Deal Brexit as senior civil servants have drawn up scenarios for David Davis. If you remember the minister responsible for No Deal is actually Steve Baker. That’s ERG founder Steve Baker. And if you remember he is facing queries from Brexiteers about whether he is truly committed to Brexit on the basis of his recent actions and comments.

There were reported that his plans for No Deal were stalling and proving impossible.

And today we have the Brexmeggadon ‘Project Fear’ article with three levels of jeopardy: Mild, Severe and ‘Oh my fucking God’.

Suddenly all our talk of stockpiling on Westministenders are starting to look rather prudent and enlightened. Ian Dunt’s book is looking like a Brexit Manual. David Allen Green is just standing there going ‘Well’. And George Osbourne is maniacally laughing his head off somewhere.

In the Level 2 Disaster Planning we are looking at Dover collapsing on Day One, food would run out within days and hospitals would run out of medicine within weeks. Petrol would run out within week two too.

As I’ve point out before in the worst case, the government has insufficient police and army to manage a worse case scenario.
Of course this is so explosive, its only been shared with a handful of ministers and are ‘locked in a safe’ and The Sunday Times don’t tell you what is in the ‘Bremeggadon’ scenario.

Or you could just read social media for the ‘scaremongering’.

We now have political attempts to FOI or force the publication of these reports to look forward too. The irony being that in this case the government will have a legitimate case that it would be against national security to release them. Of course they can’t actually admit that either!

Naturally Cabinet ministers and DeXeu has dismissed the article as not true. What else could they do?

Only for a ‘government source’ to claim that the denial was ‘untrue’ to Sam Coates of The Times.

Matthew Holehouse pointed out that the government can’t say for certain what impact no deal will have on medicine supply chains, because review on this isn’t due to finish its “initial” work until “late spring 2018”. Of course we are now in Summer 2018 and its still not been completed. Which obviously bodes well.

And there is talk of Chilcot style inquiries into Brexit sometime in the future. Westministenders is once again way ahead on that score…

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Meanwhile over in the Labour corner, growing pressure has been mounting on Corbyn. This week has seen the launch of a Corbyn supporting left wing pressure group, comprised of grassroots and trade unions to stop him supporting the harakiri of Tory Brexiteers.

We wait with tepid enthusiasm and sceptical levels of optimism for Corbyn’s climb down. St Jeremy knows what he wants...

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What does all this talk all mean? I think its difficult to read as much different to the media catching up with what the sane – who have a modicum of understanding of what trade deals, the custom union and the single market actually are - have been saying for sometime. Reality can’t be spun forever. At some point, you have to start preparing the public for the coming shit storm or the inevitable u-turn. This seems likely to be the move to kill off No Deal once and for all.

In terms of a ‘possible civil war’ under Brexmeggadon, its noticeable key Brexiteers are backing away from the cake. That doesn’t smack of civil unrest, that smacks of cowardice and a lack of Brexiteer leadership as no one is truly prepared to nail themselves to the mast as the ship starts to sink.

I also don’t think people will blame other people in the event of no food and no medicine and no medicine. I think people will be fairly unified in blaming those in charge who caused ‘No Deal’.
Oh and The American Trade Wars have began.

Ronald Regan ‘We should beware of the demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends—weakening our economy, our national security, and the entire free world—all while cynically waving the American flag.’

Hmmm. Sounds a lot like Brexit doesn't it?

Turnips anyone?
Planting season is late June to early July.

zombies, being already dead, can't be killed. I wonder if this is keeping May in power?

I could see NI uniting with the RoI - possibly within the next 4 years. I wonder if May/Johnson/Gove/Whoever would really want to be seen as the PM who broke the United Kingdom?

I bought the Observer yesterday - it has a piece in from I think it was 1803 or some such time, reporting the mess the Tory party was in. Well of course, eventually the Tory party split, but not until the Repeal of the Corn Laws - so it took a long time dying. I wonder if we are seeing that now. The Tories haven't had a good majority since Thatcher's day.... [wishful thinking perhaps]

I see that the Poundworld talks have just collapsed putting 5,000 jobs at risk. It's a sad day when even discount shops can't thrive.

I see that the Poundworld talks have just collapsed putting 5,000 jobs at risk. It's a sad day when even discount shops can't thrive.

I started a thread yesterday, musing on the possibility that the demise of instore shopping - be it poundland or House of Fraser - leading to a contraction of opening hours (after all, if you're selling less, you'd be open less, not more).

I'm not saying I'm right. And I'm happy to have a debate (in that thread). What I find more interesting is the general lack of any critical thinking about peoples replies seem to suggest. There's quite a few "oh that can't happen" with no economic or other relevant analysis. Basically "da feelz". Bearing in mind when Alders went, people were saying that BHS would never go. When BHS went, people said HoF will never go ...

As with the UKs political system which after repeated chances to fix is now broken, it could be that the retail sector has reached that stage too

The thing about the "collapse" of the high street is that major cities will still survive whilst smaller towns will suffer massively. Major cities will still have bars, restaurants, galleries, theatres (y'know elitist, cultural shit) drawing people in. Smaller (Brexit voting) towns won't. Something else to whinge about.

If all these stores close what will happen to rents then and the landlords? Surely it makes sense for them to reduce rents in order to keep high streets open and working?

Nope. They'll increase rents to ensure they make the profits they projected. After all, what's their line of work ? Making money, or selling tat ?

With the caveat that's it's been years since I had to work in this field, it used to be the case that unlet units did not attract rates. So there was no incentive on a landlord to let.

Certainly, in the 1980s, Harrow council took a decision that Harrow was going to be the next Hemel Hempstead (!) and encouraged the building of office blocks over housing and retail. Which then remained unlet for years. With no downside for the owner/developer. I wasn't there, but I suspect the term "riff-raff" was used a lot in council meetings.

(This was the same council that refused to have a street party between numbers 100-200 of my road, because Too many Indians live there - one of the gems of Conservative policy in 1977).

I have often toyed with the idea of ringing GVA/DTZ/whoever, and express interest in starting a venture in a retail unit combining discount shoes, greetings cards, mobile phones, and an artisan coffee shop. So far it's only DW that's held me back pointing out the psychic danger to my mental health if they took it seriously.

Many people think that things they like / rely on can never go,
because as I posted before, there is no living memory of real mass hardship

Brexiters in particular not only think this, but also assume their decisions / the UK's actions will never change this
They are the ultimate childish snowflakes, assuming they can so what they want without any consequences except the ones they want

Well, empty houses / flats still have council tax charged,
just a month's grace iirc when declared empty, before the owner must pay

So it's about time that business properties were brought into line
Hello Labour, anyone listening ?

One of the reasons I wanted to get into IT, was a brilliant book: "The Might Micro" by the late Dr. Christopher Evans, who died far too early.

In hindsight, it's obviously quaint, and it's an interesting moment in time when an expert future-gazing get's it spectacularly wrong on the side of caution (which is a moment to pause and reflect on how the advances since 1979 must have impacted on people who weren't experts).

One section is - quite rightly - devoted to Artificial Intelligence. After a thorough and quite rigorous discussion, he notes the reasons why it might not happen. And one of the reasons - which he admits isn't a real reason, but which always "informs" debate - is the response "but that can't happen". No reason. No underlying qualification. Just a blanket refusal to accept one particular outcome. He doesn't dwell on it ... but it's clear it's a "thing" for every advance made in the field of human endeavour. You can bet your life that the first person to jump on a horse did so to grumbles that "it would never happen".

Well, empty houses / flats still have council tax charged,

COGNITIVE DISSONANCE ALERT

There are no empty flats or houses. There's a housing crisis.

(That's a barbed dig at the lack of celebration from people that the sudden appearance of a lot of freed up real estate could help ease "The Housing Crisis" (c))

But they won't be making any money if the shops are empty.

Maybe this is where we little folk differ from the megacorps of this world ?

Not being an accounting whizz - again I'm happy to be corrected - I have a sneaking feeling that an asset which loses money (such as an empty retail unit) can be cleverly used in a money-go-round to recover tax paid elsewhere ?

My primary assertion stands though. GVA et al have no interest in selling dream catchers, artisan coffee, glitter nails, glitter bombs or bath bombs. It is a matter of supreme indifference to them whether a high street does well, or does not. In fact a more empty high street is simply a luxury "town living" development (no families or poor people, naturally) that hasn't happened yet.

Or - in a nod to modern demographics - a retirement complex that hasn't happened.

Working out who actually owns what in terms of high st premises or bits of fields where new 'out of town' are projected to be built etc would be quite revealing. The church, owning much of East Anglia for example (if I remember correctly). Offsetting unrented premises is a think I believe as DGR said so the OWNERS have no real reason to care as long as it is viewed as a long term investment. Tesco were accused of Land banking not so long back and others will be doing the same.
Liverpool council had a scheme selling off derelict terrace houses for a few Pounds to private buyers who could demonstrate they had sufficient capital or a cast iron 'scheme' to afford to bring them up to a liveable standard. I don't know how well it went though. There are reputedly lots of houses around the country that are not lived in with owners 'sitting' on them as investments.

I was surprised to read yesterday that only 17% of retail sales are taking place online. The high street decline may just be bog standard recession not an online shopping surge.

When’s the next deadline for anything brexit related?

It comes back to that thing again you know, about believing in the greater good of the community not the individual

The is no such thing as society

Working out who actually owns what in terms of high st premises or bits of fields where new 'out of town' are projected to be built etc would be quite revealing

Indeed, Private Eye seems to have made it a bit of a crusade. Bearing in mind one of the purposes of the Land Registry is not to reveal - but obscure - who owns what. (No, I know it was never sold as that ...)

There are reputedly lots of houses around the country that are not lived in with owners 'sitting' on them as investments.

No need to be coy. It's the stated business aim of housebuilders to regulate the introduction of new properties to artificially maintain the values of ones already sold.

Recently, DW and I toured all new builds for about 15 miles - about 20 developments as I recall. All of them were being built in phases, so that the prices were maintained (which is why you will never convince me that "The Housing Crisis" (c) isn't a contrivance). They were universally shit, built of cardboard, and in 4 cases, the showhome had been placed in the middle of a stone-chipped car park which was impossible for a wheelchair to navigate. Clearly cripples would put off prospective buyers. There was a high point when DB joined us (from the US, and he's got the accent) and said "Gee, it's great you have these unheated storage units .... say where do you guys park your cars at night ?"

The showhouses that weren't moated with stones weren't particularly accessible either. If I had been on Mumsnet then, I would have been thinking "when someone shows you who they really are..."

I was surprised to read yesterday that only 17% of retail sales are taking place online. The high street decline may just be bog standard recession not an online shopping surge.

I'm convinced that the final straw for the High street decline was the Brexit led pound devaluation. If the referendum hadn't happened more businesses would have survived. My reasons for thinking this are:

1. Many of the retail businesses are closing completely. Most of them had successfully embraced on line shopping, so they could have rationalised to just their on line business if there wasn't a bigger issue.

1. On line shopping has been established for ages. The number of people visiting high streets declined by 2.2% between 2008 and 2015, as people cut their spending following the financial crisis and internet shopping increased. However shops had survived this when the pound was stronger. It was The referendum that caused our currency to plummet. That in turn pushed up the cost of purchasing many items, which is why the closures are happening now-post the referendum.

1. If the pound had remained strong the retailers could have continued to ride it out. Most of the businesses closing do cite the pound dropping as a predominant reason for their decision.

With ds going off to Uni in September, we may end buying him a flat in a year or so as an investment.

This would be in Aberdeen so I'm hoping that the oil industry doesn't recover too much in the interim (but then it's welcome to start growing again ).

He can then pay us rent from his student loan - which is probably a better investment than anything else on the market at the moment

www.theregister.co.uk/2018/06/11/cisos_must_be_braced_for_cyber_security_challenges_post_brexit_report/

Chief information security officers (CISOs) must prepare for the ending of intel and law enforcement agreements with the EU post-Brexit, a report from Forrester has warned.

The key concern for CISOs is the future cooperation on cyber security, said the report. Current arrangements will continue until the end of the transition, and a new security treaty will need to be effective on January 1, 2021.

It went on to outline three specific issues at stake because of Brexit.

Uncertainty around the continued cyber threat intel exchange was one key area highlighted, with the possibility Blighty will lose much of its access to EU institutions, operational capabilities, and cyber threat intelligence.
It also warned law enforcement cooperation with Europol could be threatened. The inter-European agency provides operational support for complex cybercrime investigations across the EU. In a no-deal scenario, law enforcement cooperation will stop, which "will substantially weaken the tools" to identify adversaries, said the report.
Brexit could also disrupt the UK’s adoption of EU cyber and data privacy legislation, namely the EU’s General Data Privacy Regulation (GDPR) and the Network Information Security (NIS) directive.
CISOs consequently need to bang the drum on these issues and get policy makers listening.

"First, assess what you currently gain from intelligence sharing and security cooperation efforts, then explain their value to lawmakers. In the UK, you can submit for consultations to the stakeholder engagement capability within the Department for Exiting the European Union," advised the report.

Meanwhile it cautioned on diversifying intelligence sources. "In addition to government feeds (eg, threat intelligence from National CERTs) you can collect open source feeds using manual methods, aggregation software available for free on GitHub, or a commercial product."

On GDPR and NIS directives the advice was, unsurprisingly, to keep calm and carry on. ®

I think you mean something like 'mobility impaired'?
Has the UK 'closed' already?
I am trying to 'buy' things from 5 companies and they can't even be bothered to reply. Not a good look for a 'nation of shopkeepers'.

Online has changed retail in more subtle ways too.

DW and I are old hands at using t'internet to scour retailers websites and ascertain whether a particular item is available at all before sallying forth in real spacetime. Motivated by the pisspoor accesiblity that passes for acceptable in the UK.

So previously, where we would have schlepped from store to store, retail park to retail park (ashes to ashes, funk to funky ... ) we simply don't need to now. Saves time - and money.

Last month I wanted some glass graduated pipettes. Quick google tells me to forget "going to a shop", so it was onto Amazon, £4.80 for 3 including P&P and delivery 6 days later direct from China. Parking at our nearest shopping centre would be £2.50 - on a Sunday.

rinse and repeat ...

I'm always suspicious of those think tanks like the team moving from Legatum to the IEA seemingly to quietly advise the government.

I found this drivel published just today -I don't know if it's gratuitous free advice or a synopsis of what may be being advised to members of the cabinet.. If the govt are paying for advice from this lot it seems pretty low level and late in the day to me.

Why publish it now?

For example "...the EU knows that in the event of no agreement, its preference of the UK in the customs union and single market as a rule taker can be achieved, it knows that no country will negotiate with the UK, and it does not need to conduct further serious negotiations. In this event, the EU is likely to keep negotiations alive, but not make serious concessions, knowing that the UK is unlikely to be able to make progress with other countries.The UK has so far been trapped by the Irish backstop discussion. What the EU wants would end the negotiations without them having started, or completely separate Northern Ireland from the rest of the U.K."

iea.org.uk/themencode-pdf-viewer-sc/?file=/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Unfrozen-briefing-final.pdf&settings=111111011&lang=en-GB#page=&zoom=75&pagemode=

I think the demise of the high street shops is caused by a number of reasons
High rents and business rates , min wage becoming the going rate, ( less money to spend) no decant pay rise for a decade, ( still recovering from financial crash) shop’s maybe expanding to quick and to many ( on the back of cheap money) people prefer out a town stores ( no parking charge, the obvious online sales ( easy from home and cheaper ) more things for people to do now at the weekends ( not just shopping) etc I don’t think you can put it down to one reason.
Re pound v dollar in the last 30 years the ex rate has been as high as 2.43 and as low as 1.11 with an avarage of 1.44, as you can see you can’t put it solely down to the dollear

Out of the stores to go into administration, it would be interesting to know how many people regularly used the stores ? I for one have never been in HOF or Poundland, maplin’s and some of the recent restaurants, I must admit I’ve never heard of them.

Arron Banks @ arron_banks
The emails belonged to me and were stolen by someone @carolecadwalla @peterjukes , you used stolen property to write the story. Your key whistleblower chris Wylie says he saw them months ago and gave them to British & US intelligence. We will be reporting the theft tomorrow.

Ah I see where he is going with this.

The ICO can't use information in emails which is incriminating if that information is obtained by theft.

Therefore if he's incriminated himself by email which leads to where the bodies are buried, it's fine as his defence is, no one could have found out without the evidence being stolen.

Interesting.

Theft? Or deliberately leaked to protect?

Also, who does 'own' emails?