Westministenders: Brexmeggadon Redux.

[RedToothBrush]

The last thread started about how the Withdrawal Bill was in tatters with The Rebel Forces feeling confident of staying in the Customs Union and there seemed to be a growing backlash towards the hostile environment and the need to reduce immigration.

This thread starts with the revelation this week that Farage has claimed that he never said the UK would be better off financially under Brexit, just that we would be self-governing and the Brexmeggadon Planning Revelation.

The Sunday Times has published a story about No Deal Brexit as senior civil servants have drawn up scenarios for David Davis. If you remember the minister responsible for No Deal is actually Steve Baker. That’s ERG founder Steve Baker. And if you remember he is facing queries from Brexiteers about whether he is truly committed to Brexit on the basis of his recent actions and comments.

There were reported that his plans for No Deal were stalling and proving impossible.

And today we have the Brexmeggadon ‘Project Fear’ article with three levels of jeopardy: Mild, Severe and ‘Oh my fucking God’.

Suddenly all our talk of stockpiling on Westministenders are starting to look rather prudent and enlightened. Ian Dunt’s book is looking like a Brexit Manual. David Allen Green is just standing there going ‘Well’. And George Osbourne is maniacally laughing his head off somewhere.

In the Level 2 Disaster Planning we are looking at Dover collapsing on Day One, food would run out within days and hospitals would run out of medicine within weeks. Petrol would run out within week two too.

As I’ve point out before in the worst case, the government has insufficient police and army to manage a worse case scenario.
Of course this is so explosive, its only been shared with a handful of ministers and are ‘locked in a safe’ and The Sunday Times don’t tell you what is in the ‘Bremeggadon’ scenario.

Or you could just read social media for the ‘scaremongering’.

We now have political attempts to FOI or force the publication of these reports to look forward too. The irony being that in this case the government will have a legitimate case that it would be against national security to release them. Of course they can’t actually admit that either!

Naturally Cabinet ministers and DeXeu has dismissed the article as not true. What else could they do?

Only for a ‘government source’ to claim that the denial was ‘untrue’ to Sam Coates of The Times.

Matthew Holehouse pointed out that the government can’t say for certain what impact no deal will have on medicine supply chains, because review on this isn’t due to finish its “initial” work until “late spring 2018”. Of course we are now in Summer 2018 and its still not been completed. Which obviously bodes well.

And there is talk of Chilcot style inquiries into Brexit sometime in the future. Westministenders is once again way ahead on that score…

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Meanwhile over in the Labour corner, growing pressure has been mounting on Corbyn. This week has seen the launch of a Corbyn supporting left wing pressure group, comprised of grassroots and trade unions to stop him supporting the harakiri of Tory Brexiteers.

We wait with tepid enthusiasm and sceptical levels of optimism for Corbyn’s climb down. St Jeremy knows what he wants...

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What does all this talk all mean? I think its difficult to read as much different to the media catching up with what the sane – who have a modicum of understanding of what trade deals, the custom union and the single market actually are - have been saying for sometime. Reality can’t be spun forever. At some point, you have to start preparing the public for the coming shit storm or the inevitable u-turn. This seems likely to be the move to kill off No Deal once and for all.

In terms of a ‘possible civil war’ under Brexmeggadon, its noticeable key Brexiteers are backing away from the cake. That doesn’t smack of civil unrest, that smacks of cowardice and a lack of Brexiteer leadership as no one is truly prepared to nail themselves to the mast as the ship starts to sink.

I also don’t think people will blame other people in the event of no food and no medicine and no medicine. I think people will be fairly unified in blaming those in charge who caused ‘No Deal’.
Oh and The American Trade Wars have began.

Ronald Regan ‘We should beware of the demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends—weakening our economy, our national security, and the entire free world—all while cynically waving the American flag.’

Hmmm. Sounds a lot like Brexit doesn't it?

Turnips anyone?
Planting season is late June to early July.

Do people seriously think that this will happen? That the UK will be wrecked and those of us living here impoverished just so that a few massive egos in the cabinet don't have to say that they got it wrong? Even thougt that will almost immediately become very obvious to the whole world?
Speaking personally, if the issue of flights is not sorted out very soon, my business will fail. I am desperately trying to think up alternative ways of making money. I'm a single parent, and our family will be well and truly fucked.

It's about understanding the relative power UK / EU and in fact UK / RoW
The UK govt - and Leavers - are 50+ years behind the times, thinking the Uk is still a world power

The Uk ruling class long ago learned it is nowhere near an equal when interacting with the US

Unfortunately, the same politicians that roll over and present their bottoms to the USA haven't realised that the EU is an economic superpower, a trading behemoth that other regional trading blocs are trying to copy.

The US slaps down the UK whenever interests collide; in contrast, the EU is very polite
However, the EU is no more going to roll over and break its rules for us than the US would

The prosperity of the EU depends massively on the Single Market
The UK's proposals to date would all damage that
No expected losses in tourism, trade etc could be more important to the EU than protecting its Single Market
e.g. the German industry bosses and unions keep repeating this, but the govt and Leavers refuse to listen.

I think the government had pinned its hopes on an American alliance but that is now dead in the water. Donald Trump is having 1to1 meetings with all the other leaders at the G7 summit apart from Theresa May who he's refusing to meet.

And that visit, next month .... ?????

Boris saying that Theresa May should copy Trump's negotiating style. Has he not noticed that the United States is a great global power, whereas the UK is a small insignificant island? We have already spent a long time copying Trump's style - as in "We're very special so give us what we want". That's worked well, hasn't it?

Do people seriously think that this will happen? That the UK will be wrecked and those of us living here impoverished just so that a few massive egos in the cabinet don't have to say that they got it wrong?

I think it's a very definite possibility. I think it is either this or a disorderly remain.
I do not believe any deal is forthcoming - because the govt are a) utterly incompetent b) don't know what they want and c) refuse to listen to what is possible or not.

I suppose there is the outside chance of a last minute request for EEA/EFTA - as it would be too late for the headbangers to do anything but grumble - and it would fulfil the mandate to leave the EU.

I think it's going to be a terrifying 9 months whilst we wait to see if our little corner of the world is about to end or not. And the uncertainty will mean no one knows what plans to put in place to try and manage the eventual outcome as best as possible.

I can understand the people burying their heads in the sand - but I'm angry with them. They need to accept the possibility ahead of us and actively fight it - not hope it just all goes away. Because it won't on it's own.

What's peoples thoughts on the current process leading to a situation where it's clear that the only way forward is BINO. Simply because a combination of what is permitted by treaties, and what is forbidden by treaties boxes, plus the UKs own parliamentary arithmetic can only lead to that ?

At that point, some of the less ideological Leavers shrug their shoulders and say

Well, if we have to accept all that, we may as well have a seat at the table

Maybe I'm making a mistake, but I am starting to lose interest in the Commons vote next week. Because it seems to me that parliament can pass whatever laws it wants, but that's just a unilateral decision which may not be acceptable once translated into a legal treaty. Ultimately, parliament - for all it's swagger - is simply not competent (in a legal sense) to deliver Brexit.

With the nonsense with the red bus 'reclaiming' 350Million what would be so wrong with scrapping Trident and the ridiculously expensive aircraft carrier (s)?
Pop a hole in an aircraft carrier and it is sunk.
Trident, or it's replacement? If it came to a war of that magnitude Britain, as a small island would be stuffed as nowhere would be habitable and at that point ALL the rules would have been ripped up. Staying close to the nearest continent,,,, err,,, Europe, who have broadly similar mindset would make some sense.
Although rushing out with guns is very 'impressive' modern 'war' is on the internet with the capability of 'destroying' another country from the comfort of your armchair. Manipulation of financial houses and other 'sneaky' means that just aren't cricket is the way (forward). Damn those 'furriners'.
I believe the British armed forces, in buying USA 'hardware' rely on the USA to actually deploy much of it. We COULD grow our own, but the USA says we have to buy theirs.

Following up my own question, it seems the big bookmakers don't actually offer odds on "Brexit will happen" ... I'm guessing because currently there's no such thing as Brexit.

The more mathematically adventurous will understand that means that in some sense there is more chance of the Earth being visited by aliens before Christmas, than Brexit happening. Which is just crying out for some sort of matched betting crossplay

We COULD grow our own, but the USA says we have to buy theirs.

We did grow our own - much to the US annoyance (they have a habit of underestimating the UK)

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_hydrogen_bomb_programme

The problem is you need a lot of money. Plus a decent science education system into which you put that money. Which isn't really a British thing. (In fact it never has been). On top of that you also need a society where science is respected and expertise admired. Again, not really the British way, is it ?

Did anyone catch Mock the Week ? Dara O'Briain was visibly - and understandably - irked that the UK was allowed Jacob Rees Mogg to be portrayed as some sort of expert on Irish affairs.

If anyone is looking for a day out in the Midlands tomorrow, there's the Cosford Airshow. Worth a visit, and it's not flying, but they've one of the TSR-2s there. A rusting legacy to the UKs final try as an independent nuclear power.

Hi DGRossetti, I agree that BINO is the most likely option for the reasons you state. The cabinet will press for a time-limited BINO but unlikely the EU will agree unless there's a clear plan for what will happen at the end of that period.

We could have a Norway deal in weeks without the sodding Brexiteers and their ridiculous demands. The PM's psychological inability to face them down is increasingly infuriating. We are now at the point where she could say, publically, "you've had two years to develop options for how the UK would function outside the single market and customs union. None of your proposals are workable. Businesses are running out of time. If you won't accept the Norway option then by all means resign."

If I believed BINO was the most likely option then I would be content to put my head in the sand and forget about it all until March. and I still cling to the hope that it won't happen at all
But I am so very afraid that it will all go to shit due to sheer incompetence.
If they can't sort their act out, the crashing out is the natural consequence of that. And absolutely nothing in the past two years gives me confidence that they will sort their act out - or work in the best interest of the country to avert disaster. It's all party first, ideology, delusions of empire and the sinister workings of the disaster capitalists.
Maybe with any other government, I would believe in eventual BINO...but not with this one. no other govt would have got us into this mess in the first place

I am continually, darkly amused by R & P Norths' steady stream of apocalyptic rage-tinted writing as this whole Brexit business drags on. Every time I think I couldn't get more outranged by the shower of incompetents leading this Brexit process, I flip over to their blogs and watch two of the longest-running Brexit cheerleaders exploding with rage as they watch their glorious victory turn to ashes. I do wish our occasional "do they know who we are" visitors would go float their rubbish over on their blog comments. It would be ever-so-entertaining.

DH and I are also weighing up the big "how late can we leave it to decide to cut our losses and get out" question. (Well, I have been weighing it up for over a year now, DH is finally, reluctantly on the road to realising that Brexit is looking like it's not going to be an "oh well, no more FOM for me or the kids" thing to get over and is looking like more of a full-blown British crisis.)

I am a foreign national, our children are dual, and DH is British. I agree with everyone else who's mentioned how daunting the prospect of uprooting and going is after being settled for so long. I was young and unencumbered when I last did anything so dramatic!

I remember globalisation in the 90s though, and it changed my family's life completely. (My dad is a manual worker.) I've been though these sorts of paradigm-shifts before, and I'm under no illusions that if I just act like a good citizen I will be okay. That's not how paradigm shifts work, unfortunately. My best chance is to get out of the way of the shift before it happens, if it's absolutely going to happen. And that seems to be what Boris, Gove, Baker, and co want more than anything else.

Pretzels - the government hasn't exactly covered themselves in glory (!!) but I think the majority of Tory MPs would and will accept BINO, and when push comes to shove they will overrule the headbangers. However, this will be much closer to the wire than comfortable for anyone.

I have it easy in that I'm stuck in the UK for the foreseeable - no connections or skills that would enable me to move abroad - so I have no major personal decisions to make. The situation is much harder in many ways for those who could move abroad, or who run or work for businesses that would be screwed by a bad Brexit.

Where have all the sensible Leavers gone? There were some posters on these threads who had proper informed opinions and knowledge. Even the flag waving, nonsense talkers like @surferjet have all but gone. I do try to engage on the Vote Leave facebook pages, but no hard questions or facts ever get past their moderators and onto their pages so there's no balance. I want to hear Leavers as I fear I'm just in an echo chamber.

I suspect most sensible Leavers are now hoping for the Norway option; some have probably become gritted-teeth Remainers.

Where have all the sensible Leavers gone?

Didn't they all say it was 'so boring' about 23 months ago?

I've never been less bored in my life.

Where have all the sensible Leavers gone?

They haven't gone anywhere - there's simply not much they can say. Nothing is going anywhere near as they (admittedly naively and foolishly) imagined. And never will.

As for Brexiteers ... well now the trollbot army has been stood down (or redeployed) it's actually quite therapeutic when they do pop up. They stand out like a sore thumb and in most cases are clearly confused that the tsunami of agreement they thought they had has just disappeared.

As things grind on, I am more convinced that someone, somewhere is advising May. No one - not even a skydiver with a failed parachute who walks away - no one is that lucky.

Maybe - long after I'm gone - the decision to rush to A50 (and the faux battle that was fought over it in court) will be revealed or accepted as a stroke of genius by Remain. Because it's basically why things are currently in the shitter while simultaneously appearing to be the Brexiteers wet dream.

I know Brexiteers critical faculties aren't, but even JRM isn't ever going to appear in public claiming that Brexit failed because we rushed it when he was at the head of the rabble saying "not a day longer".

I'd love to know how a Chinese pundit would view this ... there's the culture that invented, defined, and still plays the long game.

The sensible Leavers Corcory, Howabout for two seem to have disappeared.

The others, dare I say the silly ones, have bobbed up on a thread about what to put on a banner. Not that they have any suggestions.

Maybe the 'value' of the UK will fall so low the Chinese will just buy all of it at once?

DG If Brexit goes badly, after all the promises of sunny uplands and they need us more because … cars, prosecco, now holidays …
then almost all the Leavers - the govt, media & ordinary supporters - will claim it is because of EU "punishment" and Remainer treachery.

The groundwork for that excuse has been laid / whipped up by Bojo, JRM, DD, the Heil etc ever since the ref

• because the alternative would be too admit they all totally screwed up and significantly harmed the country …

but they'll never admit that

A handful of well-informed Leavers like the Norths will scream in fury that it was because of gross ignorance & incompetence by the govt,
but they will continue to claim that the decision to leave was correct because "evil empire"

• that view is based on nationalist emotion, despite their deep knowledge of the EU

Or this scapegoat:

_ Nigel Farage says UK could be worse off after Brexit if Theresa May fails to get tough with Brussels_

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-nigel-farage-theresa-may-uk-worse-off-tough-brussels-a8390796.html

Farage told the Today programme:
“We have the got wrong leader.

If we had a leader who actually believed in Brexit and was prepared to see there was a vision for the future we could make a success of it.

“We will finish up perhaps in an even worse place than we are now because
we won’t be free to deregulate,
we won’t be free to go out in the world and make our own deals,
we won’t be controlling our own borders
and we will still be accepting rules from Brussels.”

… “Here’s the problem – Trump walks away from things, he rather enjoys it actually.
Theresa May parroted ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’, I think just to get votes in the general election and [Michel] Barnier knows the one thing the prime minister will not do under any circumstances is walk away.

He's blaming her in advance if there is BINO
May could also be landed with the blame if there's a non-BINO Brexit, which harms the economy enough for people to notice, especially the Brexit doomsday scenario

So incredibly reckless how top cabinet ministers are doing all they can to turn one half of the country against the other.
And I have to say that some remainers on Mumsnet and no doubt elsewhere, out of massive frustration and fear, which I share, are saying some horrible things about Leavers. That "they've brought it on us and deserve everything they get; I won't help anyone when everything collapses in case they voted leave" kind of thing, though understandable, doesn't bode well for us as a country.

Well, why didn't the Leavers put up a sensible candidate who was likely to win? Except that they don't have any sensible candidates. Johnson, although behaving as though he is stupid, would have been a certain winner, but ran away.