Westministenders: Brexmeggadon Redux.

[RedToothBrush]

The last thread started about how the Withdrawal Bill was in tatters with The Rebel Forces feeling confident of staying in the Customs Union and there seemed to be a growing backlash towards the hostile environment and the need to reduce immigration.

This thread starts with the revelation this week that Farage has claimed that he never said the UK would be better off financially under Brexit, just that we would be self-governing and the Brexmeggadon Planning Revelation.

The Sunday Times has published a story about No Deal Brexit as senior civil servants have drawn up scenarios for David Davis. If you remember the minister responsible for No Deal is actually Steve Baker. That’s ERG founder Steve Baker. And if you remember he is facing queries from Brexiteers about whether he is truly committed to Brexit on the basis of his recent actions and comments.

There were reported that his plans for No Deal were stalling and proving impossible.

And today we have the Brexmeggadon ‘Project Fear’ article with three levels of jeopardy: Mild, Severe and ‘Oh my fucking God’.

Suddenly all our talk of stockpiling on Westministenders are starting to look rather prudent and enlightened. Ian Dunt’s book is looking like a Brexit Manual. David Allen Green is just standing there going ‘Well’. And George Osbourne is maniacally laughing his head off somewhere.

In the Level 2 Disaster Planning we are looking at Dover collapsing on Day One, food would run out within days and hospitals would run out of medicine within weeks. Petrol would run out within week two too.

As I’ve point out before in the worst case, the government has insufficient police and army to manage a worse case scenario.
Of course this is so explosive, its only been shared with a handful of ministers and are ‘locked in a safe’ and The Sunday Times don’t tell you what is in the ‘Bremeggadon’ scenario.

Or you could just read social media for the ‘scaremongering’.

We now have political attempts to FOI or force the publication of these reports to look forward too. The irony being that in this case the government will have a legitimate case that it would be against national security to release them. Of course they can’t actually admit that either!

Naturally Cabinet ministers and DeXeu has dismissed the article as not true. What else could they do?

Only for a ‘government source’ to claim that the denial was ‘untrue’ to Sam Coates of The Times.

Matthew Holehouse pointed out that the government can’t say for certain what impact no deal will have on medicine supply chains, because review on this isn’t due to finish its “initial” work until “late spring 2018”. Of course we are now in Summer 2018 and its still not been completed. Which obviously bodes well.

And there is talk of Chilcot style inquiries into Brexit sometime in the future. Westministenders is once again way ahead on that score…

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Meanwhile over in the Labour corner, growing pressure has been mounting on Corbyn. This week has seen the launch of a Corbyn supporting left wing pressure group, comprised of grassroots and trade unions to stop him supporting the harakiri of Tory Brexiteers.

We wait with tepid enthusiasm and sceptical levels of optimism for Corbyn’s climb down. St Jeremy knows what he wants...

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What does all this talk all mean? I think its difficult to read as much different to the media catching up with what the sane – who have a modicum of understanding of what trade deals, the custom union and the single market actually are - have been saying for sometime. Reality can’t be spun forever. At some point, you have to start preparing the public for the coming shit storm or the inevitable u-turn. This seems likely to be the move to kill off No Deal once and for all.

In terms of a ‘possible civil war’ under Brexmeggadon, its noticeable key Brexiteers are backing away from the cake. That doesn’t smack of civil unrest, that smacks of cowardice and a lack of Brexiteer leadership as no one is truly prepared to nail themselves to the mast as the ship starts to sink.

I also don’t think people will blame other people in the event of no food and no medicine and no medicine. I think people will be fairly unified in blaming those in charge who caused ‘No Deal’.
Oh and The American Trade Wars have began.

Ronald Regan ‘We should beware of the demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends—weakening our economy, our national security, and the entire free world—all while cynically waving the American flag.’

Hmmm. Sounds a lot like Brexit doesn't it?

Turnips anyone?
Planting season is late June to early July.

MimpiDreams U.K. citizens spent 46 billion in Europe 2017, that’s a lot of money to turn away

EU citizens spent 5586 billion in Europe in 2017, that's a lot of money to put at risk for the sake of 46 million.

Harder to go on holiday.
It will be like the good (bad) old days where you need a visa and a whole catalogue of restrictions, some important, some not.
It could be like traveling to Israel, lots of 'security', many checks and so on requiring 3 hours at the airport.
The EU is probably a little 'peed off' about the whole mess and have no requirement to give the UK any continued 'favours'.
The UK citizens would have the same 'right' to go to Europe as the North Africans, Syrians and others. Sorry mates, you're not in the club any more, get in the line.

EU citizens spent 5586 billion in Europe in 2017, that's a lot of money to put at risk for the sake of 46 million.

Ah, but Don’t They Know Who We Are?

MimpiDreams So the U.K. spends double than individual EU nations, accounts for over 11% is Spain’s income, the U.K. people is second to Germany for hoiladays in europe

That's the cause of this whole mess isn't it. They refuse to acknowledge our superiority and insist on treating us as equals. It was a while back but one brexiter, Davis I think, said in an interview that they wanted a better relationship where the UK and the EU worked in partnership as equals rather than being one voice among twenty eight.

54321go Why would the EU be getting pissed off,

Along with everything mimpi said - most of our agreements about travel eg visa waiver or fairly simple visa on arrival are through our membership of the EU not because we have a 'British' passport but because we have an 'EU' one.
That disappears on 30th March 2019.
Sorting out new visa requirements for British travellers is not going to be high on the list of priorities for the RoW.
Sorting out new visa requirements for British travellers are not going to be high on the list of priorities for the British govt in the event of anything less than a Norway deal - as they will have much larger problems, much closer to home, to sort out.
During this time it will simply not be legal for us to go to any country that we had an agreement with through the EU. Because the visa/waivers in existence no longer cover us.
It might be that you could sneak through immigration (for a short time) because brexit is so far down everyone else's list of priorities that they simply won't notice or care that the visa you have isn't valid for you any longer. But it's a risk - and it won't last forever. And we may simply be deleted from databases automatically, like we will be from trading databases. So there is no chance of us getting through immigration. Computer says no.

It is something that will need renegotiating individually with every country we already have some kind of agreement with (which is a lot). And as with all our negotiations - we will enter into them in the weaker position. Which means we will probably end up paying more for these visas/ visa waivers.

This isn't just about going on holiday in Europe. This is about the rest of the world. And no - Britain doesn't give so much to any individual tourist economy that can't be compensated for by tourists from the rest of the world

Don't kid yourself that Britain is that important to the tourist industry. The numbers might look big. But there is the whole of the rest of the world to cover the shortfall. We, on the other hand, will be entirely by ourselves.

And I have no idea what we will need to get into Europe following all this. But even a simple and relatively cheap visa waiver is more complicated than what we have now.

There is a reason the Australians refer to 'Brits' as 'whinging poms'.

So the U.K. spends double than individual EU nations, accounts for over 11% is Spain’s income, the U.K. people is second to Germany for hoiladays in europe

Interesting grammar from our new visitor. is it time for recipes and gardening tips?

So the up side to Brexit is more people stay in the U.K. and spend their money, Best get another hoiladay home sorted

GaspodeWonderCat Just trying to live up to the think leaver

See? I knew we would have “Don’t They Know Who We Are?”

The EU will get 'peed off' in a similar way to your child messing about when you are trying to go out for the day.
'Put that down and get yourself ready'! Exasperation is possibly a better description.
There is an ESTA for going to the USA, supposedly 'fast tracking' immigration for holiday purposes. It doesn't stop the massive queues when you get there though.

U.K. tourism to Spain & Greece rises to record levels 2016-7 helping their economies, are they happy to give that up ?

How many holiday homes have you got, user? I see that you're in the I'm Rich So It Won't Touch Me category. Thought so. Never mind about the rest of us.

U.K. tourism to Spain & Greece rises to record levels 2016-7 helping their economies, are they happy to give that up ?

Yes they are willing to give it up for the sake of maintaining the integrity of the union. 29% of Greek citizens and 18% of Spanish think they should compromise to keep Britain close. The rest 71% and 82% think there should be no compromise.

UK tourism to Spain and Greece. Fair enough comment but with the impending price rises on travel etc how many in the UK will be able to afford such it in the future?
'Don't they know who we are' actually works both ways. Britain's colonial past that the Government seems to think was great (and still exists) has a mixed view worldwide and not always positive. Great things were achieved, but often at the expense of the original inhabitants.

it should read holidays!

I am so sick of this "don't believe what they say, they're just Remainers" attitude, to most civil servants and other experts. It's just about faith, isn't it? Like - "don't believe what he says about Christianity, he's just a Catholic".
People are "Remainers" BECAUSE they are experts, and have seen and understood the FACTS of the situation. Those facts tell them that leaving the EU will have disastrous consequences. Therefore they don't think that the UK should leave. It's not about blind faith, it's about knowledge and objectivity.
User and others of your kind - stop shutting your ears to those who are far far more knowledgeable and, yes, intelligent than you are, and who actually care about our country and its citizens.

Are they 'happy' to give it up?probably not 'happy' - no. But this isn't their choice is it? This isn't something they are doing to us. It's something we are choosing to do - and there are consequences to that choice.
Are they 'willing' to give it up is the question you ought to be asking. And the answer to that is 'yes' - because it will ultimately cost them less than a compromise of their rules (the ones we helped to write and voted on) would.

I know user is a GF... but shouldn't GFs be making an attempt not to appear so very thick? After all - that we think they're thick is a leavers greatest complaint. So those that engage in attempts to troll us should really be trying harder not to perform to stereotype. Shouldn't they?
Is it too much to ask that GFs either say something intelligent or just don't bother? What do they achieve by having their arguments publicly ripped to shreds by remainers - other than allowing the counterpoints to their ignorance to enter into the public domain... where they (the counterpoints) might start swaying people who hadn't thought of that yet...

It's been a while since we've had a Don't They Know Who We Are visitor.

There may well be good reasons that would be beneficial for the UK to leave the EU IF it had been properly researched and evaluated. The world is a different place to where it was when we joined and the 'emerging markets' that were around then have changed.
The UK is a small island which in it's colonial past had massive influence. Now it struggles to keep even Wales 'in line'.
The small island needs an anchor. It is ditching the EU so who can it turn to? USA (on terms that have many unfavourable aspects), Russia, China, India (or other large growing economy)?
So many of the agreements with the EU are tied up in law and have been developed over 40 years or more. There aren't enough lawyers available to properly 'un pick' all the legislation and renegotiate new treaties who could complete the process which would take tens of years (by which time the world has moved on).
The EU has problems, most of the 27/28 would agree, but having one of the founder members 'throwing the toys out' is not the way forward.

I think the government had pinned its hopes on an American alliance but that is now dead in the water. Donald Trump is having 1to1 meetings with all the other leaders at the G7 summit apart from Theresa May who he's refusing to meet. Pursuing the 'special relationship' is embarassing, like we're some pathetic clingy ex who just won't get the message and fuck off.

Having the UK as a '51st State' could be handy for Trump. On the BBC there is a story about Nevada refusing to store spent atomic waste. Maybe it could come to the UK as part of the 'special relationship', a bit like people have a 'special relationship' with loo roll.