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Brexit

Westministenders: Brexmeggadon Redux.

990 replies

RedToothBrush · 03/06/2018 16:36

The last thread started about how the Withdrawal Bill was in tatters with The Rebel Forces feeling confident of staying in the Customs Union and there seemed to be a growing backlash towards the hostile environment and the need to reduce immigration.

This thread starts with the revelation this week that Farage has claimed that he never said the UK would be better off financially under Brexit, just that we would be self-governing and the Brexmeggadon Planning Revelation.

The Sunday Times has published a story about No Deal Brexit as senior civil servants have drawn up scenarios for David Davis. If you remember the minister responsible for No Deal is actually Steve Baker. That’s ERG founder Steve Baker. And if you remember he is facing queries from Brexiteers about whether he is truly committed to Brexit on the basis of his recent actions and comments.

There were reported that his plans for No Deal were stalling and proving impossible.

And today we have the Brexmeggadon ‘Project Fear’ article with three levels of jeopardy: Mild, Severe and ‘Oh my fucking God’.

Suddenly all our talk of stockpiling on Westministenders are starting to look rather prudent and enlightened. Ian Dunt’s book is looking like a Brexit Manual. David Allen Green is just standing there going ‘Well’. And George Osbourne is maniacally laughing his head off somewhere.

In the Level 2 Disaster Planning we are looking at Dover collapsing on Day One, food would run out within days and hospitals would run out of medicine within weeks. Petrol would run out within week two too.

As I’ve point out before in the worst case, the government has insufficient police and army to manage a worse case scenario.
Of course this is so explosive, its only been shared with a handful of ministers and are ‘locked in a safe’ and The Sunday Times don’t tell you what is in the ‘Bremeggadon’ scenario.

Or you could just read social media for the ‘scaremongering’.

We now have political attempts to FOI or force the publication of these reports to look forward too. The irony being that in this case the government will have a legitimate case that it would be against national security to release them. Of course they can’t actually admit that either!

Naturally Cabinet ministers and DeXeu has dismissed the article as not true. What else could they do?

Only for a ‘government source’ to claim that the denial was ‘untrue’ to Sam Coates of The Times.

Matthew Holehouse pointed out that the government can’t say for certain what impact no deal will have on medicine supply chains, because review on this isn’t due to finish its “initial” work until “late spring 2018”. Of course we are now in Summer 2018 and its still not been completed. Which obviously bodes well.

And there is talk of Chilcot style inquiries into Brexit sometime in the future. Westministenders is once again way ahead on that score…

----------------------

Meanwhile over in the Labour corner, growing pressure has been mounting on Corbyn. This week has seen the launch of a Corbyn supporting left wing pressure group, comprised of grassroots and trade unions to stop him supporting the harakiri of Tory Brexiteers.

We wait with tepid enthusiasm and sceptical levels of optimism for Corbyn’s climb down. St Jeremy knows what he wants...

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What does all this talk all mean? I think its difficult to read as much different to the media catching up with what the sane – who have a modicum of understanding of what trade deals, the custom union and the single market actually are - have been saying for sometime. Reality can’t be spun forever. At some point, you have to start preparing the public for the coming shit storm or the inevitable u-turn. This seems likely to be the move to kill off No Deal once and for all.

In terms of a ‘possible civil war’ under Brexmeggadon, its noticeable key Brexiteers are backing away from the cake. That doesn’t smack of civil unrest, that smacks of cowardice and a lack of Brexiteer leadership as no one is truly prepared to nail themselves to the mast as the ship starts to sink.

I also don’t think people will blame other people in the event of no food and no medicine and no medicine. I think people will be fairly unified in blaming those in charge who caused ‘No Deal’.
Oh and The American Trade Wars have began.

Ronald Regan ‘We should beware of the demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends—weakening our economy, our national security, and the entire free world—all while cynically waving the American flag.’

Hmmm. Sounds a lot like Brexit doesn't it?

Turnips anyone?
Planting season is late June to early July.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
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BigChocFrenzy · 08/06/2018 14:41

hasenstein You don't need to apply for German citizenship to stay, if your DW moves to Germany
afaik, even non-EU spouses have permanent right, unlike in the UK

Also, my Korean & Indian colleagues - working for >5 years here - retained their own citizenship, never applied for German, but have permanent right to remain for themselves, their DWs & DC
I asked and the form is quite a simple 4 pages, nothing like the horror in the UK

Reality If there is no earlier announcement of what will happen
then you could wait until late October to book for March
Ferries, trains & planes should still be running as normal - but I'd book for mid-March

However, I recommend you book asap if no deal is announced at any time, as spare seats might quickly vanish if panic spikes
Even without such an announcement, keep checking weekly that there are still seats

Imo, any deal but Norway+ is likely to lead to significant disruption, probably recession, so maybe book a one-way trip to go a month before any lesser deal comes into effect

BigChocFrenzy · 08/06/2018 14:44

Even the most basic Withdrawal Agreement - without trade - would contain expats rights to remain for anyone resident on Brexit Day
simpler and requiring much less effort than the current process, I mean

prettybird · 08/06/2018 14:44

The link that BigChoc posted up to Barnier's press conference is currently showing a summary.

ec.europa.eu/avservices/ebs/live.cfm?page=1

It is damning - espeically if you can understand the French parts. For example he says that the UK needs to be realistic about what is, will be and is not possible and that he is not impressed with the British attempts to transfer responsibility.

In the English part he damns with faint praise saying that he welcomes the UP proposals because it is good to get something in writing from them Hmm - and then goes on to tear it to bits.

He is still relatively diplomatic but it is clear than he is losing patience even his diplomacy is being tested.

Hasenstein · 08/06/2018 14:48

BigChoc

Even the most basic Withdrawal Agreement - without trade - would contain expats rights to remain for anyone resident on Brexit Day
simpler and requiring much less effort than the current process, I mean

Yes, but AFAIK as things stand (and are proposed under Settled Status) an EU citizen, even with Permanent Residence card, forfeits those rights if they're out of the country for more than 2 years.

DGRossetti · 08/06/2018 14:51

especially if you can understand the French parts.

I could. Given that rapid-fire French can floor me, it was a pleasure to hear.

DGRossetti · 08/06/2018 14:52

www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/back-strop-why-may-cant-solve-the-irish-issue-unless-she-stands-up-to-the-brexit-hardliners

Very succinct summing up so far. The fact it was written yesterday speaks volumes.

Danniz · 08/06/2018 14:58

I apologise for being stupid, but should those of us stuck in the UK be converting our savings into Euros, how do you go about doing that, and are there risks/downsides?

BigChocFrenzy · 08/06/2018 15:01

I've heard before from native French that Barnier speaks a very pleasing form

hasenstein I thought 2 years was a very generous limit, but obviously not for anyone who wishes to return to care for aging parents etc or live in other EU countries.
(I don't)

You would be safest to apply for German citizenship - I don't know if less residence is required when married to a German
and it might also be less if you do it while still a UK citizen

However, maybe don't leave that too late - I keep hearing the rush of Brits has caused a few months backlog to the usual process

DGRossetti · 08/06/2018 15:03

I apologise for being stupid, but should those of us stuck in the UK be converting our savings into Euros, how do you go about doing that, and are there risks/downsides?

Money laundering regs for a start.

Bear in mind if you can't legitimately show where the money came from, it's not yours anymore.

SusanWalker · 08/06/2018 15:08

Jusqu'à présent, dans tous les papiers britanniques que nous recevons, et que je lis attentivement avec mon équipe, il y a une demande de statu quo, une forme de continuité, assez paradoxale alors que ce pays a pris lui-même la décision de quitter l'Union européenne.

Et ainsi le Royaume-Uni semble vouloir maintenir tous les bénéfices de la relation actuelle tout en sortant de notre cadre réglementaire, de notre cadre de supervision commune et de sa mise en œuvre.

Lorsqu'on répond aux dirigeants britanniques que, en dehors du système créé par l'Union européenne, ces bénéfices ne sont pas accessibles, par leur propre décision, certains au Royaume-Uni cherchent à nous faire porter à nous la responsabilité des conséquences de cette décision.

Je veux simplement dire sur cet état d'esprit que nous ne nous laisserons pas impressionner, je ne me laisserai pas impressionner par cette forme de blame game.

Le Royaume-Uni a décidé de quitter l'Union. Nous respectons cette décision prise démocratiquement et nous la mettons en œuvre. Le Royaume-Uni doit en assumer les conséquences.

Si nous voulons construire une nouvelle relation, il faut une base de confiance, il faut aussi plus de réalisme sur ce qui est et ce qui sera possible et sur ce qui ne l'est pas.

SusanWalker · 08/06/2018 15:09

Barnier telling it like it is.

DGRossetti · 08/06/2018 15:13

Now I can read it, it's exactly what I thought he said. I tuned in (yeah, grandad - what on "the wireless" Grin) halfway through and he appeared to leave after saying the above without saying it in English (did I miss something).

Hasenstein · 08/06/2018 15:13

BigChoc

Yes, 2 years isn't long if you're caring for elderly relatives or even just seeing if you can settle in another country.

I can't apply for German citizenship without being resident there for a prescribed period (I think 5 years with German spouse). I think I'd be better off looking for permanent residence, which I could do after 3 years. This would allow me to remain in Germany, although not with free right of movement within the EU.

Embarking on that 3-year+ process would currently remove my DW's right to return to the UK after 2 years away. Hence seeking UK citizenship for her before we think further.

Tambien · 08/06/2018 15:16

Money laundering regs means you can’t transfer big sums of money all in one go.
Doesn’t mean you can’t transfer money.

I have an account in the U.K. which is in Euro so have tansferrred a lot of our savings on there first. It protected them from the pound diving down (opened not long afetr the Brexit vote)
Then I transferred the money into an account in Europe.

DGRossetti · 08/06/2018 15:16

Here's what I mean about BBC bias.

Brexit: Barnier questions May's 'backstop plan'

No he didn't he rejected it. End of. The only reason to word it like that is to make it seem like it had some merit to start with, and then blame the nasty EU for not inviting DD and TM over for Netflix and Chill because of it.

Have I got that wrong ?

Tambien · 08/06/2018 15:18

I have to say, I would have thought that we had moved on from believing in fairies and unicorns....

mrsreynolds · 08/06/2018 15:20

I'm planning on booking cheap flights for me and the kids to ireland after Xmas

I have family I can stay with

DGRossetti · 08/06/2018 15:21

Money laundering regs means you can’t transfer big sums of money all in one go. Doesn’t mean you can’t transfer money.

The problem is repeated small transfers will catch someones attention, since they are exactly what criminals do to avoid ... money laundering regs.

RedToothBrush · 08/06/2018 15:21

Election Data @election_data
Similar trends in the YouGov polling for Scotland from today. These are figures for those in social grade C2DE (January numbers in brackets):
SNP 47% (40% in January)
CON 22% (18% in January)
LAB 22% (31% in January)
Labour haemorrhaging C2DE votes to the SNP and Conservatives.

Election Data @election_data
I think I'd be wary of suggesting Labour's apparent problem with C2DEs is down to Brexit.

Two phrases:
Digitalisation
and
'Student Politics'

Totally unsurprised by Barnier.

Anyway, I might be awol for much of the weekend - as I am possibly without phone reception. I expect Saturday night's newspaper drop at about 9.30pm - 10pm to be dramatic. May has called a meeting for Monday for Tory MPs ahead of the Withdrawal Bill show down. There has, as yet, been no attempt to head off the customs amendment, but the suggestion is that it is in the works.

I dread what I might come back to on Sunday evening.

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 08/06/2018 15:24

DG I had no problems bringing over the proceeds of my flat sale

Unless the money is dodgy, transfers from the Uk to Germany are fine for a German resident with a German account.

  • it just needs to came from a UK account from a recognised bank or building soicety - i.e. not cash.

Danniz You only really need to consider changing your assets to Euros if you plan to emigrate for at least a few years.

If you have capital to invest, then German shares are doing well, but you definitely need a qualified financial adviser.

  • the German Postbank manages my brokerage account totally, without any input from me other than to specify I want low risk investments. Despite this, my annual overall profit is better than I would get in a German interest account.

Risks of converting:

  • The pound might rise quite a bit if there is a Norway+ deal, or even a transition which allows hope of such a deal
  • If there is no deal and a recession, interest rates could rocket to stop the pound sliding and this could be higher than inflation.

So if you are remaining in the UK, maybe safest to stick to GBP as you aren't an experienced investor ?

  • Tax - check regulations on large profits from any house sale etc before you emigrate to another country, not just EU. If you reside in Germany and the profit from a house sale falls in that tax year, then profit will be taxed unless you've owned it over 10 years (I checked with my German tax accountant first that I'd have no tax to pay !) Otherwise, sell and don't move before the following January (German tax year is Jan-Dec)
DGRossetti · 08/06/2018 15:25

I think I'd be wary of suggesting Labour's apparent problem with C2DEs is down to Brexit.

Dunno. I can't have made it any clearer to my (Labour) MP, and the constituency why a pro Brexit Labour won't get my vote.

I would be mildly surprised if as many pro-Brexiteer constituents have done the same Hmm

BigChocFrenzy · 08/06/2018 15:27

btw, I transferred my money in chunks of 100k - I just checked with my UK and German banks first that they would have no problem.
Both said in fact that I could transfer all in one go, but I chickened out, in case of fraud etc

BigChocFrenzy · 08/06/2018 15:28

Very interesting, red
< rubs hands at all the excitement, can't help it >

DGRossetti · 08/06/2018 15:29

DG I had no problems bringing over the proceeds of my flat sale

and I'd guess 99.99% of legitimate transfers go OK. Still leaves 0.01% chance of "something" going wrong. And the way anti money laundering works is they have your money while you try to prove it's yours.

That said, losing your money to a shit IT system like TSB/RBS/HSBC is also a possibility.

BigChocFrenzy · 08/06/2018 15:31

Money laundering regs just mean you may have to prove you own it, for more than 10k or whatever
I was never asked - presumably I don't raise any dodgy flags in either country