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Brexit

Westministenders: Brexmeggadon Redux.

990 replies

RedToothBrush · 03/06/2018 16:36

The last thread started about how the Withdrawal Bill was in tatters with The Rebel Forces feeling confident of staying in the Customs Union and there seemed to be a growing backlash towards the hostile environment and the need to reduce immigration.

This thread starts with the revelation this week that Farage has claimed that he never said the UK would be better off financially under Brexit, just that we would be self-governing and the Brexmeggadon Planning Revelation.

The Sunday Times has published a story about No Deal Brexit as senior civil servants have drawn up scenarios for David Davis. If you remember the minister responsible for No Deal is actually Steve Baker. That’s ERG founder Steve Baker. And if you remember he is facing queries from Brexiteers about whether he is truly committed to Brexit on the basis of his recent actions and comments.

There were reported that his plans for No Deal were stalling and proving impossible.

And today we have the Brexmeggadon ‘Project Fear’ article with three levels of jeopardy: Mild, Severe and ‘Oh my fucking God’.

Suddenly all our talk of stockpiling on Westministenders are starting to look rather prudent and enlightened. Ian Dunt’s book is looking like a Brexit Manual. David Allen Green is just standing there going ‘Well’. And George Osbourne is maniacally laughing his head off somewhere.

In the Level 2 Disaster Planning we are looking at Dover collapsing on Day One, food would run out within days and hospitals would run out of medicine within weeks. Petrol would run out within week two too.

As I’ve point out before in the worst case, the government has insufficient police and army to manage a worse case scenario.
Of course this is so explosive, its only been shared with a handful of ministers and are ‘locked in a safe’ and The Sunday Times don’t tell you what is in the ‘Bremeggadon’ scenario.

Or you could just read social media for the ‘scaremongering’.

We now have political attempts to FOI or force the publication of these reports to look forward too. The irony being that in this case the government will have a legitimate case that it would be against national security to release them. Of course they can’t actually admit that either!

Naturally Cabinet ministers and DeXeu has dismissed the article as not true. What else could they do?

Only for a ‘government source’ to claim that the denial was ‘untrue’ to Sam Coates of The Times.

Matthew Holehouse pointed out that the government can’t say for certain what impact no deal will have on medicine supply chains, because review on this isn’t due to finish its “initial” work until “late spring 2018”. Of course we are now in Summer 2018 and its still not been completed. Which obviously bodes well.

And there is talk of Chilcot style inquiries into Brexit sometime in the future. Westministenders is once again way ahead on that score…

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Meanwhile over in the Labour corner, growing pressure has been mounting on Corbyn. This week has seen the launch of a Corbyn supporting left wing pressure group, comprised of grassroots and trade unions to stop him supporting the harakiri of Tory Brexiteers.

We wait with tepid enthusiasm and sceptical levels of optimism for Corbyn’s climb down. St Jeremy knows what he wants...

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What does all this talk all mean? I think its difficult to read as much different to the media catching up with what the sane – who have a modicum of understanding of what trade deals, the custom union and the single market actually are - have been saying for sometime. Reality can’t be spun forever. At some point, you have to start preparing the public for the coming shit storm or the inevitable u-turn. This seems likely to be the move to kill off No Deal once and for all.

In terms of a ‘possible civil war’ under Brexmeggadon, its noticeable key Brexiteers are backing away from the cake. That doesn’t smack of civil unrest, that smacks of cowardice and a lack of Brexiteer leadership as no one is truly prepared to nail themselves to the mast as the ship starts to sink.

I also don’t think people will blame other people in the event of no food and no medicine and no medicine. I think people will be fairly unified in blaming those in charge who caused ‘No Deal’.
Oh and The American Trade Wars have began.

Ronald Regan ‘We should beware of the demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends—weakening our economy, our national security, and the entire free world—all while cynically waving the American flag.’

Hmmm. Sounds a lot like Brexit doesn't it?

Turnips anyone?
Planting season is late June to early July.

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33
Icantreachthepretzels · 08/06/2018 12:50

Don't leave it til April - in the event of brexitmaggedon the planes stop on March 30th. If you have somewhere else to go - I would suggest simply going away a few days before the 29th... and then never coming back because you can't back

following brexitmaggedon your right to be in another country will be suspect though (most of our arrangements for having visa waiver/no visa come through the EU - and you will have lost freedom of movement/ right to remain in the EU) and you may end up getting deported.

No planes and ferry ports in melt down - that's a long time in a deportation centre. I'm really not sure making a run for it is the safest thing - unless you have an alternative EU passport or so much money you will be welcome anywhere in the world.

I'm afraid normal rules no longer apply. But you will be better aware of what the situation in March will be by October - when our deal must be completed. If when it's not, then it's brinkmanship. Crash out or disorderly remain.
I'd use October to February to thing whether staying or fleeing is the best option in your personal circumstances.

DGRossetti · 08/06/2018 12:59

when do you think would be the best time to get out of the UK for a bit and let the dust settle.

Hard enough getting around with a wheelchair as it is, so for some the stay at home option is the only one. Although it does present an opportunity for running a protection racket.

Be a shame if anything happened to your house while you were away ...

MimpiDreams · 08/06/2018 12:59

Mr Barnier is about to give a press conference on where the brexit negotiations are at. I'm guessing he'll just laugh and say 'that's all folk' then walk out.

BigChocFrenzy · 08/06/2018 13:02

reality, Nikita The UK cannot legally stop its own citizens returning whenever they choose (even after an absence of 100 years if someone lived that long)

Forced exile would be massively against international law, would probably cause international sanctions and is something only full-blown dictatorships do.

You may find the UK economy takes such a hit that you don't want to return, can't find a suitable job etc

You may also take a hit if you have to sell a Uk property before leaving and convert your capital to Euros

  • however, Sterling is likely to plummet if a hard Brexit looks likely, so I wouldn't wait until then.
Also, jobs that monolingual Brits can do are likely to become scarcer if there is a sudden rush tomoeave.

Obviously don't give up UK citizenship when you leave
The E27 countries have said that any Brit resident - registered as living there and paying income tax etc - on Brexit day will be allowed to remain

54321go · 08/06/2018 13:02

@DGR
Sorry, not a judgement call by any stretch and in any case I would put several groats down that my life over the last 2 years has been more weird than yours.
Please don't panic me by saying I may get deported, I'm learning another language as fast as I can! I thought it was already agreed a long time back (by Brussels) that UK citizens were fine to stay in the EU. Please don't let May (or a government near you) mess up so badly that they go back on this.

Tambien · 08/06/2018 13:04

Honestly? I have thought about it and if there is no plan, no transition period, I will be out in March. Maybe around the 15th depending on what will actually be available (I’m pretty sure I’m not the only one to think like this).
I have somewhere to go if need be, even if for a short time.
Then I will reassess.

Strong point: I have an eu passport and so have my dcs so we will be ok on that point.
Not so good point: I doubt H will follow (more issues for him re staying in the EU too as he only has his briticitzenship. More fool him not to have done anything about it).

Much before March, move as many financial assets as possible too.

I am very much thinking/hoping/praying that they will organise a transition period.
And then that they will get a Norwegian type of agreement. The U.K. will loose out. I’m struggling to feel sorry even if I will loose out in the process too.

Tbh I very feel it’s very much the uk own fault. Too Many political and systemic issues that have been never addressed but have led to that situation.

54321go · 08/06/2018 13:05

Crosspost BigChoc.
Thank you for your last sentence, it makes me feel a bit better.

BigChocFrenzy · 08/06/2018 13:09

The advantage of renting - and the disadvantage of owning - is you can leave anywhere at 2 months or so notice.
That could make things easier for younger / lower income people, in contrast to how opportunities often happen.
However, home-owners could let out the property if they don't have much mortgage to cover

When I emigrated immediately after the ref, I just sold up, got a new job in Germany and also moved out most of my capital

  • capital controls are quite likely if Brexit really sends the economy into a tailspin, because the govt will want to discourage mc professionals from leaving, as well as needing to keep the money in UK circulation / banks.

MrsT removed capital controls in the 1980s, as part of the then EEC free movement of capital, but iirc the super-rich have always been able to move their capital, just not the rest of us

BigChocFrenzy · 08/06/2018 13:17

tambien Spouses and DC would be allowed to stay too, if resident in an EU country on Brexit day
Could come afterwards if you have an EU passport.
Of course, his issue may be if he couldn't find a comparable job (monolingual ?) or has other UK family

I have no close family left and Germany welcomes scientists from anywhere, so working language is typically English for many science posts.
Even non-EU citizens can gain permanent status after 5 years residence, which is the norm for E27 countries
Some Indian & Korean colleagues have already got this status

BigChocFrenzy · 08/06/2018 13:18

tambien Spouses and DC would be allowed to stay too, if resident in an EU country on Brexit day
Could come afterwards if you have an EU passport.
Of course, his issue may be if he couldn't find a comparable job (monolingual ?) or has other UK family

I have no close family left and Germany welcomes scientists from anywhere, so working language is typically English for many science posts.
Even non-EU citizens can gain permanent status after 5 years residence, which is the norm for E27 countries
Some Indian & Korean colleagues have already got this status

Tambien · 08/06/2018 13:28

I know BigChoc but as it is the case for multinational marriages, there are other issues at play.
Eg to have never envisaged to move to my country or tried to learn the language. Just the expectation that I would be the one to make the effort to assimilate here.

The reality is simply that if I have to make a choice between my relationship and Armageddon in the uk for my dcs, I will choose the best option for them. And that would be to leave.
That’s also why I’m saying going back for a month and then reassess. If Armageddon it is, then the choice will have been made for me.
H can decide what he wants to do for himself.

CardinalSin · 08/06/2018 13:40

Not particularly useful, but interesting.

David Davis, in 2002, tells MPs why referendums can go badly wrong. "We should not ask people to vote on a blank sheet of paper, and tell them to trust us to fill in the details afterwards..."

BigChocFrenzy · 08/06/2018 13:58

Grin DD may have got even stupider over the years

DGRossetti · 08/06/2018 14:01

Is anyone else curious as to why the DD camp appear to be accepting BoJos carefully considered analysis of the UK negotiating stance re:Brexit. Given he's the fucking minister supposed to be doing it ?

Surely BoJo has effectively told the world You know that David Davies ? He sucks donkey balls. ?

SusanWalker · 08/06/2018 14:02

JC has got to go. The government are in chaos. They can't run the trains, the NHS, universal credit, crime is rising, brexit is a mess. Labour should be miles ahead in the polls, brexit or not.

I think the incapabilities of the Labour leadership are to blame. The Tories are incapable too. But I expect people are thinking better the devil you know.

If the Labour leadership came out with a proper strategy for the country, led by an articulate leader with less baggage than Corbyn then they might have a chance. Labour members/bots harassing people on social media, calling them red Tories and Tory enablers does not help either. Tip - don't piss off possible voters, rather listen to them and adjust your policies within your party parameters to attract them in.

BigChocFrenzy · 08/06/2018 14:03

LIVE EC press conference by Barnier

ec.europa.eu/avservices/ebs/live.cfm?page=1

"Our backstop cannot be extended to the whole UK"

lonelyplanetmum · 08/06/2018 14:07

Cardinal that is a very interesting extract . Davis ( a decade ago) sounded comparatively knowledgeable and articulate.

" Referendums should be held when the electorate are in the best possible position to make a judgment. They should be held when people can view all the arguments for and against and when those arguments have been rigorously tested. In short, referendums should be held when people know exactly what they are getting. So legislation should be debated by Members of Parliament on the Floor of the House, and then put to the electorate for the voters to judge."

Fascinating. None of these sentences reflect how his government operates.

RealityHasALiberalBias · 08/06/2018 14:14

I have somewhere to go on the continent, and it’s nice enough that I would feel no hardship in not being able to get back for a while!

I’m idly thinking about booking a one-way ferry in mid-March, and deciding nearer the time whether I’ll be on it. It’s deciding whether 29th March will be Armageddon day, or two years later, that I’m stuck on.

Hasenstein · 08/06/2018 14:19

I'm also torn between moving and staying options.

We (DW German, me British) have lived here for 40 years and have no family and hardly any friends left in Germany. Here we have a house, UK-invested pension, wide circle of friends and lots of community links (charity work, church, tennis clubs etc.). We're (hopefully) nearing the point where DW will have dual nationality, so will be able to live either here or in Germany (and at least return to the UK if we don't settle in Germany). I only have British nationailty, but am fluent in German, having lived there before I met DW, so no language barriers.

One DS is firmly fixed here, the other will be returning to the UK in December after 6 years in Japan, but intending to move with Japanese wife to Germany (where he qualifies for German nationality by descent).

Just the thought of moving out of our home of 30 years (with the usual associated detritus and general stuff) is daunting enough; the idea of selling everything and changing just about every aspect of official/bureaucratic/financial/sociall life has me recoiling in horror (I'm congenitally lazy! Blush).

Also, the sheer slog of applying for my DW's citizenship here has been exhausting enough and the thought of having to do the same all over again for myself is equally offputting.

And the whole time, I hear the Brexit clock ticking away in the background.

If an agreement (BINO?) with transition period is reached, that might mean we could postpone the decision for a while (kicking the can down the road, (c) T May Grin), but if it all goes belly-up next March, it may be too late and the potential losses too great if the Pound tanks or capital controls have to be introduced.

So should we continue to pander to our laziness and hope things pan out tolerably, or summon up the strength and courage for the upheaval of moving to a country where we no longer have any connections? I'm sure many others are facing similar quandaries (BigChoc has already decided), so any enlightenment which might sway us one way or the other would be welcome.

IrenetheQuaint · 08/06/2018 14:23

Farewell then, temporary backstop proposal
It was nice while it lasted
Which was slightly under 24 hours
A temporary proposal indeed.

(c) EJ Thribb

DGRossetti · 08/06/2018 14:23

Davis ( a decade ago) sounded comparatively knowledgeable and articulate.

Was it he who made the point that "A democracy that cannot change it's mind ceases to be a democracy" ?

EmilyAlice · 08/06/2018 14:27

Hmm. So when the pound crashes and my pension income in euros gets even smaller, I can at least rent out the cottage in the garden to Westministenders fleeing the UK....

TheElementsSong · 08/06/2018 14:31

As I said on the other thread, I don't really think we're going to be suffering full-on societal collapse next April (I guess we'll have a slightly clearer idea by October at the latest) so we haven't thought about getting out of the country to avoid events arising from Independence Day.

As an intellectual exercise, it is an interesting question: where would we head to - it would depend on whether we expect to be there short-term (a bit of disruption, a few shortages, before the dust settles) or long-term (zombie apocalypse meaning we have to abandon our house and never return Grin).

I have the right to another citizenship but it is (a) far away not in the EU, and (b) not available to DH and DC. With regard to skills, DH and I are both scientists in highly-sought-after areas and have no fear of acquiring languages. So we could theoretically go anywhere that would have us.

DGRossetti · 08/06/2018 14:33

LIVE EC press conference by Barnier

what lovely French Smile ...

DGRossetti · 08/06/2018 14:39

"le blame game" Smile