Westministenders: Brexmeggadon Redux.

[RedToothBrush]

The last thread started about how the Withdrawal Bill was in tatters with The Rebel Forces feeling confident of staying in the Customs Union and there seemed to be a growing backlash towards the hostile environment and the need to reduce immigration.

This thread starts with the revelation this week that Farage has claimed that he never said the UK would be better off financially under Brexit, just that we would be self-governing and the Brexmeggadon Planning Revelation.

The Sunday Times has published a story about No Deal Brexit as senior civil servants have drawn up scenarios for David Davis. If you remember the minister responsible for No Deal is actually Steve Baker. That’s ERG founder Steve Baker. And if you remember he is facing queries from Brexiteers about whether he is truly committed to Brexit on the basis of his recent actions and comments.

There were reported that his plans for No Deal were stalling and proving impossible.

And today we have the Brexmeggadon ‘Project Fear’ article with three levels of jeopardy: Mild, Severe and ‘Oh my fucking God’.

Suddenly all our talk of stockpiling on Westministenders are starting to look rather prudent and enlightened. Ian Dunt’s book is looking like a Brexit Manual. David Allen Green is just standing there going ‘Well’. And George Osbourne is maniacally laughing his head off somewhere.

In the Level 2 Disaster Planning we are looking at Dover collapsing on Day One, food would run out within days and hospitals would run out of medicine within weeks. Petrol would run out within week two too.

As I’ve point out before in the worst case, the government has insufficient police and army to manage a worse case scenario.
Of course this is so explosive, its only been shared with a handful of ministers and are ‘locked in a safe’ and The Sunday Times don’t tell you what is in the ‘Bremeggadon’ scenario.

Or you could just read social media for the ‘scaremongering’.

We now have political attempts to FOI or force the publication of these reports to look forward too. The irony being that in this case the government will have a legitimate case that it would be against national security to release them. Of course they can’t actually admit that either!

Naturally Cabinet ministers and DeXeu has dismissed the article as not true. What else could they do?

Only for a ‘government source’ to claim that the denial was ‘untrue’ to Sam Coates of The Times.

Matthew Holehouse pointed out that the government can’t say for certain what impact no deal will have on medicine supply chains, because review on this isn’t due to finish its “initial” work until “late spring 2018”. Of course we are now in Summer 2018 and its still not been completed. Which obviously bodes well.

And there is talk of Chilcot style inquiries into Brexit sometime in the future. Westministenders is once again way ahead on that score…

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Meanwhile over in the Labour corner, growing pressure has been mounting on Corbyn. This week has seen the launch of a Corbyn supporting left wing pressure group, comprised of grassroots and trade unions to stop him supporting the harakiri of Tory Brexiteers.

We wait with tepid enthusiasm and sceptical levels of optimism for Corbyn’s climb down. St Jeremy knows what he wants...

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What does all this talk all mean? I think its difficult to read as much different to the media catching up with what the sane – who have a modicum of understanding of what trade deals, the custom union and the single market actually are - have been saying for sometime. Reality can’t be spun forever. At some point, you have to start preparing the public for the coming shit storm or the inevitable u-turn. This seems likely to be the move to kill off No Deal once and for all.

In terms of a ‘possible civil war’ under Brexmeggadon, its noticeable key Brexiteers are backing away from the cake. That doesn’t smack of civil unrest, that smacks of cowardice and a lack of Brexiteer leadership as no one is truly prepared to nail themselves to the mast as the ship starts to sink.

I also don’t think people will blame other people in the event of no food and no medicine and no medicine. I think people will be fairly unified in blaming those in charge who caused ‘No Deal’.
Oh and The American Trade Wars have began.

Ronald Regan ‘We should beware of the demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends—weakening our economy, our national security, and the entire free world—all while cynically waving the American flag.’

Hmmm. Sounds a lot like Brexit doesn't it?

Turnips anyone?
Planting season is late June to early July.

Most legitimate money is in property, or shares, bonds etc
I'd hate to have to prove ownership of cash !

I do remember that transferring the money to buy our house here in France was a heart in mouth moment. But we got 1.56 euros to the pound.

DG same here. My parents have done plenty of those transfer (from France to the U.K. and the U.K. to France) when they first bought their house here, then a flat, then sold the flat here and move the money back to France following Brexit.
They also have their pensions coming regularly from France to here (so smaller amounts on a regular basis)
Yes there are some systems in place for money laundering but you can still move money from one country to the next!

Money laundering regs just mean you may have to prove you own it, for more than 10k or whatever

Bit more involved than that. You have to show where it came from too, and that it was legitimate there too.

I'd hate to have to prove ownership of cash !

Indeed. Get caught with large sums of cash and no provenance, and it's gone forever.

Ultimately it may be a small risk, but the PP asked about negatives. Given how spiteful we already know the UK government can be to it's own citizens, I would quite easily be persuaded that there could be a massive "anti-terror" crackdown on capital flight. After all, a climate which can dub supreme court judges "Enemies of the people" would have no issues chewing up and spitting out the little people.

Another - probably more real risk - is failing to understand how non-UK banks, and financial institutions work in their intricacies. Plus how the regulation works elsewhere.

Maybe there's scope for a Brexit-specific exodus planning thread ?

Yes, if there is a Brexit downturn after the UK leaves - and citizens lose some legal protections - then capital controls are a real possibility.
Hence why I transferred my funds asap.

DG I hadn't thought of the govt deliberately abusing the law - I'm dubious about that, tbh
Other than fraud - which is a worry - I haven't heard reports of citizens losing money in EUtransfers due to govt malfeasance, escept where the citizen or money was dodgy

The US however, is a totally different matter:
there, law enforcement agencies, especially local ones, will grab any money they can, because their agencies are allowed to keep a %
and the money then does indeed belong to the state until proved otherwise - and maybe not even then.
They may throw you in jail too, which makes fighting your case so much harder.
Be VERY careful about transferring large funds to the US

Oh dear, this is embarrassing - from Barnier's press conf:

""We continue to work hard, and we continue to explain, very calmly, very clearly, what our positions are,
and where necessary, 🤦🏻‍♀️
we remind our partners of what the European Union is,
what the Single Market is
and what the Customs Union is"

I get the feeling he has tried speaking - calmly and clearly ! - in verysimple language to DD
and Junker, Merkel et al have done the same to May

DG I hadn't thought of the govt deliberately abusing the law - I'm dubious about that, tbh

Be fascinated to know what part of the current governments conduct has given you such faith in them ? Illegal deportations of British Citizens strikes me as a clear sign that the UK government can't be trusted (although I have to admit I grew up learning that no government could be trusted). That's before you go through the actions of the DWP, Home Office, Foreign Office over the years. Plus the avowed intention of all UK governments to stick it to the ECtHR over votes for prisoners.

Maybe I need to believe harder ?

Well I've just spent a happy few hours working out a plan to relocate my entire family (nearly 50 people plus at least 10 animals) to Malaysia in late March. I've worked out that if we get 5 bedroom houses then we can just about squeeze into 5 (only looking in residential complexes with a pool) I've looked into the prices of private jets (to transfer animals without sticking them in the hold) and I figure I can have a dog jet and a cat jet for about £120 000 which will seat 28 of us (the animal less will just have to go on regular planes).

We can stay there without any kind of visa for 90 days - and then go on a quick journey to Singapore before returning for another 90 days. At the end of 6 months we will hopefully know if we can return home or start sorting mmh2 visas. If the worst comes to the worst - we can keep repeating the risky move of leaving and returning ad infinitum.

It will always be warm. And English is an official language. Our easy ability to travel and stay in Malaysia is based on our Commonwealth membership, not our EU one. It is a cheaper place to live than Europe - so our money will go further.

It is the perfect plan. The only thing missing is the requisite lottery win needed to make it a possibility. Fingers crossed for tonight!

and Junker, Merkel et al have done the same to May

the absence of any individual EU head of state in Brexit discussions and negotiations is interesting - on a few levels. Not only does it respect the entire framework for Brexit that the EU decided on in 2016. It also completely neutralises any attempt to blame individual countries. It also projects an air of complete confidence on the part of the EU27 in the negotiation process. It's hard to imagine what more the UK could do to appear any different. Unless BoJo, DD and Liam Fox (you may remember him as international trade minister) turned up to Brussels to perform "Brexit! The Musical" featuring an experimental dance troupe of thrash morris dancers. The highlight being a rendition of the Captain Pugwash theme, with BoJo (wrongly) remembering Roger the cabin boy and Seaman Staines.

DWs MS (and needs for medication) preclude any flight for us, even with dual nationality. Hot climates are notoriously bad for MS.

Think of us as the Home Guard. Keeping Blighty warm till you can return. When/if DS makes us grandparents, we'll keep the creed alive by secretly teaching them other tongues (because "foreign" will be banned).

On a more practical note, we might be able to make it to an independent Scotland ? Plenty of my fellow countrymen there . And it is MS capital of the world.

Money laundering regs means you can’t transfer big sums of money all in one go. Doesn’t mean you can’t transfer money.

You can transfer big sums of money in one go, of course you can. It just has to be done in an approved way. We're following the advice we've been given and are transferring our pension funds out of the UK before brexit. So long as they go from one approved fund to another approved fund it's fine.

Should we be taking notes in the handmaid’s tale? Did anyone see David Davis admitting he was stupid on the Brussels documentary last night?

Thank you Big.

Had to stop watching handmaids tale

After trumps election it just feels all too....possible

😔😔😔😔😔

Although it's been years since I was in the City, you shouldn't have to worry about money laundering regulations too much. As long as you are transferring from/to accounts in recognised institutions, and have passed all the necessary checks to open those accounts. It was the banks themselves that do the money laundering checks, and then flag it to the authorities if they are suspicious, so it's not the government trying to catch you out (for now). It would be best if you have been with one of the banks for a good number of years, so that they can be sure that they know you. And any sudden influxes of money would probably be questioned anyway, at least as far as the source is concerned, as they would want to try and invest it for you themselves so that they can take their cut!

And any sudden influxes of money would probably be questioned anyway, at least as far as the source is concerned, as they would want to try and invest it for you themselves so that they can take their cut!

There have been tales - admittedly "internet proven" - of people being refused access to their money unless they can "prove" to the bank what it is for.

www.theguardian.com/money/2017/jan/22/barclays-took-my-440000-customers-caught-up-banks-de-risking-money-laundering-laws

Last September Mohammad Rahman won a four-year battle for compensation for disabilities caused by clinical negligence. A court awarded him £500,000, which was paid into the current and savings accounts he held with Barclays. The victory was short-lived: when he withdrew £60,000 of the payout, Barclays froze both accounts.

In vain did Rahman (not his real name) supply evidence that the payment was legal. Two months later Barclays confiscated the remaining £440,000 and closed his accounts. It then charged him £24 in fees when, because of its actions, three payments failed. “I have been treated like a criminal,” says the 26-year-old from Manchester, who has spent more than 30 hours at his local branch trying to gain access to his money. “In all this time I have not received a single letter or phone call explaining what has happened.”

(contd)

I will leave others to ponder whether "John Smith" would have had the same problem ?

Certainly not "John Bull"!

Pardon me for butting in - I'm an occasional lurker, but with the recent Brexitmageddon panic, I'm panicking!

I'm realising just how vulnerable I am to a potential economic collapse. I remember years ago reading a blog by a guy who lived through Argentina's collapse - it was very interesting reading, but I never thought something similar could ever happen here, but now I'm thinking (while hopefully unlikely!) it is plausible, therefore I should start thinking about things.

I don't have much in the way of savings, certainly not enough at the moment to relocate elsewhere. I do have the option of applying for citizenship of another EU country which I am considering, just so I still have the option of going elsewhere.

I'm not working at the moment (caring for a disabled child), and renting, hence feeling precarious. I do have a science degree, though it's over 20yrs old and I don't have much relevent experience in that field to even consider being an attractive employment option to any overseas employers. My plan was to spend the next year or 2 retraining in computer programming (I do have some experience in this) and hopefully return to work once my child is older. I'm hoping that this will still be in demand after any possible recession / economic collapse, but who knows?

We've just sold a 1 bedroom flat, and were hoping to use the proceeds from this, plus a lump sum from partner's pension that can be accessed later this year, to buy a house later this year. Now I'm not sure what to do! I'm worried our money plummets in value and we're left with nowhere suitable to live, cost of living increases and no money to escape the UK! Maybe we should buy a campervan or boat instead till it all blows over?! (and I'm half serious about that, that is how ridiculous this has all got!)

Should I get other EU citizenship, open a bank account there and transfer sale of flat proceeds, any savings and my personal pension there and convert into Euros?? Can I even do that, or do you need to be resident? (I'm completely clueless about all of this!)

Should we just buy any old house at the moment to "stash" our money? I'm so angry that I have to even be considering all of this! Maybe Scotland will vote for independence and save us all!

Sorry this is all over the place but I am genuinely worried about this and no-one in real life seems to get it!

One of my worries would be that the Government wouldn't uprate state pensions, as they do currently for citizens resident in the EU. In Canada for example the pension is frozen either at the time you claim it, or when you leave the UK. So if you got £20 a week some years ago and left, that's still what you get now. The sums of money involved to correct this anomaly are relatively trivial, I believe, but the Government has no intention of doing anything about it.

If as I suspect a hard Brexit causes the economy to collapse, which government wouldn't take the opportunity to save some money by not uprating EU residents pensions. Yes it would probably cause the Spanish retirees to come back, after fire sales of their properties, to put more of a drain on the NHS, but hey, this is what people want, apparently.

DG It's essential to inform your bank ahead of time of the amount and the source, if you are going to receive any unusual sums
I did before my flat sale and waited to get acknowledgement that all would be ok, that they would expect it.

Re that unfortunate bloke, I think that advice goes double for those with names that could be considered Muslim (or maybe even Russian)

Kitten If there is a real economic crash, I would expect UK house prices to crash, probably rents too.
Good news for those with either capital or a secure job.
I don't see why a crash would make it more difficult if you are in that situation, unless your capital is in shares, which could tank.
Good for renters too
Terrible for those using property as an investment or pension plan.

You are renting with capital saved.
Good position, but I'd do this:

• Prioritise getting any other citizenship you can
  It really increases your options if you later need to leave fast
  and even a UK employer might be really keen to have someone who can freely move and work in the EU post-Brexit, without a visa.

• Also prioritise completing your IT qualification - check it is something likely to be recognised in your 2nd country,
  e.g. like a UK degree, uni or poly (whatever they are called now) as UK degrees are normally accepted anywhere in the EU
  Widens your options again - it would seriously increase your chances of a good job in your 2nd country

• The money questions are too difficult to call , even for the experts.
  Until we know the form of Brexit, it's all best guess.

• Personally, I wouldn't buy atm in the Uk, unless it is to be your longterm home and you don't care if it might not be worth the purchase price for maybe the next 10 + years.
  However, others may disagree. Who knows.
  I'd expect a Norway deal to increase prices a bit from current level, but not much.

• Open a current Euro account in your other country, maybe even also a small (say 5k) Euro interest account. All so they get to know you as a customer for as long as possible
  Some banks accept non-resident account holders. A German colleague used to have a UK account, for her UK holidays & language courses.
  Being a citizen of that country would make it very likely to be accepted, even non-resident, but still ask if you can open one now.

Also enquire if they have Sterling accounts where you could park your capital, out of the way of possible later capital controls.
Noone can say whether Sterling will rise or plummet,
You need specialist advice re your pension, or converting your capital

If you definitely intend to emigrate longterm, then having income & capital in the currency you need to use to buy / rent a home and support yourself has advantages, but not necessarily if it is the much weaker one

Good advice. It's difficult to say when or whether to convert to Euros - The pound is at a very low rate at the moment, but if it looks like we're going to crash out then it could go lower. Alternatively, if it looks like there's going to be an EEA/EFTA deal, then it will probably rise.

This kind of uncertainty isn't helping anyone.

I agree, peregrina Currently all UK expats in receipt of a UK state pension receive all the Uk increases
plus - even more important - their healthcare in their EEA country of residence is paid for by the NHS

Compared to them returning to the UK, this saves about 4k per pensioner per year, according to evidence submitted by civil servants a couple of years ago to an HoC Committee

The extra strain of caring for additionally maybe 100,000s of pensioners would really hammer the NHS
Unlike EU countries like Spain, France, the NHS has almost no spare capacity, so would need to build more hospitals, train / import more doctors, nurses, specialists,
also the care services would need more staff.

I'm thankful I have high quality long-running private healthcare, which I can afford to keep after retirement.
I think after retirement, I would then also be eligible to use the German state service, at the much reduced pensioner contributions
This is because I kept up both UK and German state pension contributions during my various jobs in both countries and my private pensions are German too. This may not be the case for other UK pensioners.

The loss of pension income because of the fall in the pound is far more significant to us than pension increases. We have lost about 14% of our income since Brexit. The state pension increases are very small anyway.
The S1 health cover is independent of the EU and fwiw the government has confirmed that it will be continued. If not we would be able to enter the French system but there would be a cost as well as the existing top-up insurance.
We manage all our income on spreadsheets and know exactly how much Brexit has cost us to date. We can absorb the loss but a lot of people are struggling.

Of course a lot of people would say that you should allow for fluctuations in the exchange rate when you retire abroad and most people we know have done this. The problem is that this is now two years at a much lower rate with no sign of improvement.

pretzels How did you decide on Malaysia for your fantasy escape plan?