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Brexit

Westministenders: Brexmeggadon Redux.

990 replies

RedToothBrush · 03/06/2018 16:36

The last thread started about how the Withdrawal Bill was in tatters with The Rebel Forces feeling confident of staying in the Customs Union and there seemed to be a growing backlash towards the hostile environment and the need to reduce immigration.

This thread starts with the revelation this week that Farage has claimed that he never said the UK would be better off financially under Brexit, just that we would be self-governing and the Brexmeggadon Planning Revelation.

The Sunday Times has published a story about No Deal Brexit as senior civil servants have drawn up scenarios for David Davis. If you remember the minister responsible for No Deal is actually Steve Baker. That’s ERG founder Steve Baker. And if you remember he is facing queries from Brexiteers about whether he is truly committed to Brexit on the basis of his recent actions and comments.

There were reported that his plans for No Deal were stalling and proving impossible.

And today we have the Brexmeggadon ‘Project Fear’ article with three levels of jeopardy: Mild, Severe and ‘Oh my fucking God’.

Suddenly all our talk of stockpiling on Westministenders are starting to look rather prudent and enlightened. Ian Dunt’s book is looking like a Brexit Manual. David Allen Green is just standing there going ‘Well’. And George Osbourne is maniacally laughing his head off somewhere.

In the Level 2 Disaster Planning we are looking at Dover collapsing on Day One, food would run out within days and hospitals would run out of medicine within weeks. Petrol would run out within week two too.

As I’ve point out before in the worst case, the government has insufficient police and army to manage a worse case scenario.
Of course this is so explosive, its only been shared with a handful of ministers and are ‘locked in a safe’ and The Sunday Times don’t tell you what is in the ‘Bremeggadon’ scenario.

Or you could just read social media for the ‘scaremongering’.

We now have political attempts to FOI or force the publication of these reports to look forward too. The irony being that in this case the government will have a legitimate case that it would be against national security to release them. Of course they can’t actually admit that either!

Naturally Cabinet ministers and DeXeu has dismissed the article as not true. What else could they do?

Only for a ‘government source’ to claim that the denial was ‘untrue’ to Sam Coates of The Times.

Matthew Holehouse pointed out that the government can’t say for certain what impact no deal will have on medicine supply chains, because review on this isn’t due to finish its “initial” work until “late spring 2018”. Of course we are now in Summer 2018 and its still not been completed. Which obviously bodes well.

And there is talk of Chilcot style inquiries into Brexit sometime in the future. Westministenders is once again way ahead on that score…

----------------------

Meanwhile over in the Labour corner, growing pressure has been mounting on Corbyn. This week has seen the launch of a Corbyn supporting left wing pressure group, comprised of grassroots and trade unions to stop him supporting the harakiri of Tory Brexiteers.

We wait with tepid enthusiasm and sceptical levels of optimism for Corbyn’s climb down. St Jeremy knows what he wants...

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What does all this talk all mean? I think its difficult to read as much different to the media catching up with what the sane – who have a modicum of understanding of what trade deals, the custom union and the single market actually are - have been saying for sometime. Reality can’t be spun forever. At some point, you have to start preparing the public for the coming shit storm or the inevitable u-turn. This seems likely to be the move to kill off No Deal once and for all.

In terms of a ‘possible civil war’ under Brexmeggadon, its noticeable key Brexiteers are backing away from the cake. That doesn’t smack of civil unrest, that smacks of cowardice and a lack of Brexiteer leadership as no one is truly prepared to nail themselves to the mast as the ship starts to sink.

I also don’t think people will blame other people in the event of no food and no medicine and no medicine. I think people will be fairly unified in blaming those in charge who caused ‘No Deal’.
Oh and The American Trade Wars have began.

Ronald Regan ‘We should beware of the demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends—weakening our economy, our national security, and the entire free world—all while cynically waving the American flag.’

Hmmm. Sounds a lot like Brexit doesn't it?

Turnips anyone?
Planting season is late June to early July.

OP posts:
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mathanxiety · 07/06/2018 23:45

From that letter on Twitter, reported b Sam Coates, signed by May:
It is our government's settled policy that in our future relationship the UK will be out of the customs union.

Work is progressing on that relationship so that it meets our three goals of no hard border either between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland or between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, trade as frictionless as possible between the UK and the EU and an independent trade policy.

Unicorns it is then.

lonelyplanetmum · 07/06/2018 23:51

Yes so I actually don't understand how this letter is so critical to help overcome the amendments to the Withdrawal Bill?

The most significant current problems are (1) the NI border and (2) the fact the Tory rebels want to either remain in the EU or have as close an arrangement as possible and are rightly terrified of no deal.

How does a back stop which only applies IF a long term customs agreement is reached help with either of those problems?

mathanxiety · 07/06/2018 23:52

I think 'failed state' is a very appropriate term for what is going to happen. We already see an attitude to Parliament and to democracy and debate reminiscent of banana republics, not to mention press baron billionaires functioning as puppeteers.

BigChocFrenzy · 08/06/2018 00:07

The EU indeed don't want a disorderly neighbour
but their first priority is to protect the Single Market
They will not make any concessions that might endanger this

so they will put up with a disorderly neighbour if need be

Childrenofthesun · 08/06/2018 00:13

It seems every time I get my hopes up that it sounds like the government is preparing for a BINO, or at least a soft option, they come out with an official communication to the EU that states a position that has barely changed from the original cake and eat it scenario. Why do they, at this late stage, continue putting forward a position that the EU are never going to agree to?

Either there's a lot different being said behind the scenes and the official communications are just for publishing in the DM, or it's crazy brinkmanship that could actually result in us crashing out.

lonelyplanetmum · 08/06/2018 00:18

Perhaps when I wake up in the morning I'll understand this.

  1. We already agreed that because of the NI border if there's no new overall trade agreement concluded we will maintain regulatory alignment.

How is this compatible with:

  1. Us now saying the back stop only applies if a long term customs agreement is reached?

It just seems to me we are reneging on what we said before.

It's Like restatement of David Davis's "nothings agreed until it's all agreed" which is why the EU were compelled to put 1 above into writing in the first place.

BigChocFrenzy · 08/06/2018 00:32

The EU require a backstop that will be put into place until a "better" solution is available
and also which would come into effect again later, if the other solution i unavailable again or stopped working

By definition it cannot have any time limit

The backstop must enable an NI border solution that the RoI finds acceptable iand also that the EU as a whole agrees will not endanger the Single Market
It must be definable, obey WTO rules and be realistic to implement in the available time

What the UK have offered so far are either blue sky tech fantasies, a hard border, or a gaping hole in the EU's external border that could significantly damage the Single Market.

The UK is either completely ignorant of WTO and international trade rules, or still has the delusion it is too powerful to be bound by them

BigChocFrenzy · 08/06/2018 00:40

The UK must choose either the NI backstop or a Norway+ deal for the whole UK, in order to get a Withdrawal Agreement and progress on talks about future trade

Instead, the govt wastes more time arguing with itself over different fudge cake versions, all of which they have been repeatedly told will be unacceptable to the EU

Tick Tock

lonelyplanetmum · 08/06/2018 00:43

But following the EUs position we have already agreed that because of the NI border if there's no new overall trade agreement concluded we will maintain full regulatory alignment.

This backstop is a temporary customs arrangement to comply with the EU external customs tariffs, customs legislation and the common commercial policy but ONLY if a long term customs agreement is reached first?

So we are back pedalling on what we agreed before? It's what Davis said months ago about " nothing being agreed until everything's agreed."

mathanxiety · 08/06/2018 01:45

Again we see the difficulty the government has when it comes to holding more than one idea in its itsy bitsy teeny weeny little brain at any given time.

lonelyplanetmum · 08/06/2018 06:01

Well I've slept on it.

The Prime Minister's letter does not make sense. Edicts like this are rare and should not be internally contradictory.

Paragraph two on page 1 contradicts paragraph four on page 2.

mobile.twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1004764565014503432/photo/2

Why publish this letter at all?
Is it for the EU?
The Brexiteers?
The rebels?

lonelyplanetmum · 08/06/2018 06:25

I think I've finally got what the letter means. The letter is only addressing a no deal situation. Which let's face it is where we are disastrously heading.

So it's turning an intended back stop into a non back stop because it would only be transitional and contingent on an overall deal.

Everyone including the EU thinks we have already signed an international agreement that in the event of no deal there will be full regulatory alignment to protect NI.

This letter says that all we have agreed to (or will now agree to) is partial regulatory alignment. It also says this only applies in any time lapse between the Implementation period and an agreed deal taking effect.

So it isn't actually about time limits, it's about wriggling out of regulatory alignment altogether if a deal isn't agreed. So the letter is intended for the Brexiteers, and will further show the EU that our word is not our bond.

Still. After all this time the schism in the Tories and the extreme views of the right wingers costing us billions and holding the economy to ransom.

Peregrina · 08/06/2018 07:00

I can't see the DUP being happy with the backstop which isn't a backstop.

AndhowcouldIeverrefuse · 08/06/2018 07:15

Boris warns of Brexit meltdown

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44407771

Hoping the link works!

Some comments as expected and some worse - Trump anyone?

EmilyAlice · 08/06/2018 07:26

I love the suggestion in the Guardian that Dacre is going because Lady Rothermere finds the Mail's Brexit stance socially embarrassing.
Kind of sums up Brexit Britain, doesn't it?
(Even if it is very good news).

lonelyplanetmum · 08/06/2018 07:32

On a lighter note I loved this From the Irish border continuing to deliver in its Twitter responses, this time to BoJo!

mobile.twitter.com/BorderIrish/status/1004813472780161024

Peregrina · 08/06/2018 07:33

Was that Johnson deliberately leaking so that he could get himself sacked?

As for his oft repeated remarks about the Millenium bug. It's a pity Brexit isn't like that, or we would have been hard at work now to find realistic solutions, (and people would be earning lots of money preparing for it, as I was at the time.)

lettuceWrap · 08/06/2018 07:39

Boris has been tying to get sacked for some time imo. Easier to launch a leadership bid if May sacks him, which is why she hasn’t...

BestIsWest · 08/06/2018 07:49

I spent FOUR years working on a major redesign and build of an IT system so that we avoided the millennium bug. And even then we only did the absolutely essential bits.

Dobby1sAFreeElf · 08/06/2018 07:51

Just to lighten the mood, this Twitter thread is good. Bear with it.

twitter.com/Alistair_King/status/1003735659390160896?s=19

Tanith · 08/06/2018 07:55

Oh Lord! 🙄

Once again, Boris: The Millenium Bug was carefully planned for and didn’t cause the disasters predicted because lots of people - you know, experts - in the industry worked very hard to prevent them.

I know you and your friends have “had enough of experts” (because you’re terrified they’ll show you up for what you are) but we have had enough of gung-ho incompetents fuelled by arrogance and greed.

mrsreynolds · 08/06/2018 07:57

I'm even more baffled by the govts stance than I was before
didnt think that possible!

RedToothBrush · 08/06/2018 08:02

Boris deliberately leaked something pro trump hours before may went to the g7 to talk to trump.

Then we get this:

Tom Newton Dunn @ tnewtondunn
G7 fight-fest latest: May hits back at Trump’s claim she is too politically correct: "I'm just delivering what people want";
www.thesun.co.uk/news/6477733/theresa-may-trump-politically-correct-g7/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
TRUMP'S 'TIRED OF SCHOOLMARM PM' Furious row erupts as Theresa May and Donald Trump clash over his claims she’s too worried about offending people
Arriving for the G7 summit, the US president complained that the British PM is too politically correct - startled by his personal assault, Mrs May hit back to insist she just does 'what people want'

Boris deliberately unlined may and did an appeal to the us president that he is his man in London and trump should support him.

And look what response it got. That article went online 7 hours ago btw. There's maybe 4 or 5 hours tops between the Boris leak and the comments from Trump.

Now I don't think I'm saying very much which is controversial when I say that Trump isn't the most politically informed. He loves people to suck up to his ego though and that's a good way to get a response from him.

It's almost like it's all been timed perfectly and coordinated between camp Trump and camp Johnson though, to make May as ineffectual as possible at G7 and to grab all the headlines and make her look weak.

Meanwhile Johnson looks good to the pro-us Brexiteers in the Tory party.

Did you notice the spectator gave Steve Bannon a big opinion piece yesterday which went on about how the likes of Victor Urban were on the right side of history?

What did Rees-Smug discuss with Bannon? Is he in camp Johnson.... Or at least supportive of him? Is Bannon in camp Johnson?

This is the US very firmly sticking their oar into Brexit if you ask me...

OP posts:
EmilyAlice · 08/06/2018 08:03

I suspect they are baffled too mrsreynolds. Full blown panic mode I think.

SergeantPfeffer · 08/06/2018 08:06

Brexit is more akin to thousands of millennium bugs that all need fixing on different computer systems at the same time, by the same person.