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Brexit

Westministenders: Brexmeggadon Redux.

990 replies

RedToothBrush · 03/06/2018 16:36

The last thread started about how the Withdrawal Bill was in tatters with The Rebel Forces feeling confident of staying in the Customs Union and there seemed to be a growing backlash towards the hostile environment and the need to reduce immigration.

This thread starts with the revelation this week that Farage has claimed that he never said the UK would be better off financially under Brexit, just that we would be self-governing and the Brexmeggadon Planning Revelation.

The Sunday Times has published a story about No Deal Brexit as senior civil servants have drawn up scenarios for David Davis. If you remember the minister responsible for No Deal is actually Steve Baker. That’s ERG founder Steve Baker. And if you remember he is facing queries from Brexiteers about whether he is truly committed to Brexit on the basis of his recent actions and comments.

There were reported that his plans for No Deal were stalling and proving impossible.

And today we have the Brexmeggadon ‘Project Fear’ article with three levels of jeopardy: Mild, Severe and ‘Oh my fucking God’.

Suddenly all our talk of stockpiling on Westministenders are starting to look rather prudent and enlightened. Ian Dunt’s book is looking like a Brexit Manual. David Allen Green is just standing there going ‘Well’. And George Osbourne is maniacally laughing his head off somewhere.

In the Level 2 Disaster Planning we are looking at Dover collapsing on Day One, food would run out within days and hospitals would run out of medicine within weeks. Petrol would run out within week two too.

As I’ve point out before in the worst case, the government has insufficient police and army to manage a worse case scenario.
Of course this is so explosive, its only been shared with a handful of ministers and are ‘locked in a safe’ and The Sunday Times don’t tell you what is in the ‘Bremeggadon’ scenario.

Or you could just read social media for the ‘scaremongering’.

We now have political attempts to FOI or force the publication of these reports to look forward too. The irony being that in this case the government will have a legitimate case that it would be against national security to release them. Of course they can’t actually admit that either!

Naturally Cabinet ministers and DeXeu has dismissed the article as not true. What else could they do?

Only for a ‘government source’ to claim that the denial was ‘untrue’ to Sam Coates of The Times.

Matthew Holehouse pointed out that the government can’t say for certain what impact no deal will have on medicine supply chains, because review on this isn’t due to finish its “initial” work until “late spring 2018”. Of course we are now in Summer 2018 and its still not been completed. Which obviously bodes well.

And there is talk of Chilcot style inquiries into Brexit sometime in the future. Westministenders is once again way ahead on that score…

----------------------

Meanwhile over in the Labour corner, growing pressure has been mounting on Corbyn. This week has seen the launch of a Corbyn supporting left wing pressure group, comprised of grassroots and trade unions to stop him supporting the harakiri of Tory Brexiteers.

We wait with tepid enthusiasm and sceptical levels of optimism for Corbyn’s climb down. St Jeremy knows what he wants...

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What does all this talk all mean? I think its difficult to read as much different to the media catching up with what the sane – who have a modicum of understanding of what trade deals, the custom union and the single market actually are - have been saying for sometime. Reality can’t be spun forever. At some point, you have to start preparing the public for the coming shit storm or the inevitable u-turn. This seems likely to be the move to kill off No Deal once and for all.

In terms of a ‘possible civil war’ under Brexmeggadon, its noticeable key Brexiteers are backing away from the cake. That doesn’t smack of civil unrest, that smacks of cowardice and a lack of Brexiteer leadership as no one is truly prepared to nail themselves to the mast as the ship starts to sink.

I also don’t think people will blame other people in the event of no food and no medicine and no medicine. I think people will be fairly unified in blaming those in charge who caused ‘No Deal’.
Oh and The American Trade Wars have began.

Ronald Regan ‘We should beware of the demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends—weakening our economy, our national security, and the entire free world—all while cynically waving the American flag.’

Hmmm. Sounds a lot like Brexit doesn't it?

Turnips anyone?
Planting season is late June to early July.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
33
54321go · 07/06/2018 19:39

Farage on the PP especially when carried in your back pocket.

Icantreachthepretzels · 07/06/2018 19:45

I'd carry a photo of him in my wallet forever more if it got us out of this shambles
Let's replace the queen with him on all the money and just have done and then swiftly join the euro

HesterThrale · 07/06/2018 20:57

Slightly amazing.

Pro-remain editor of Mail on Sunday to replace Paul Dacre at top of Brexit-supporting paper

www.theguardian.com/media/2018/jun/07/new-daily-mail-editor-to-be-geordie-greig

Andrew Adonis tweets 'Very likely we will now stop Brexit.'

mobile.twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1004790183349374976

BigChocFrenzy · 07/06/2018 21:12

afaik, the Express hasn't become less batty since Trinity Mirror bought it
and Rothermere still holds the Mail's reins & purse-strings

HesterThrale · 07/06/2018 21:15

Rothermere was a Remainer, and Greig will answer directly to him.

RedToothBrush · 07/06/2018 21:16

www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexspence/boris-johnson-trump-brexit-leaked-recording?utm_term=.km1zzG3o8d&bftwuk=&__twitter_impression=true
Let Trump Handle Brexit: An Explosive Leaked Recording Reveals Boris Johnson’s Private Views About Britain’s Foreign Policy
“I am increasingly admiring of Donald Trump. I have become more and more convinced that there is method in his madness.”

Kevin Schofield @ polhomeeditor
Friend of Boris says: “This was a private dinner under Chatham house rules so it is sad and very disappointing that it has been covertly recorded and distributed to the media.”

Private dinner and someone just happens to record it.

It's a Boris manifesto...

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 07/06/2018 21:23

Most of us think, dangerous madness in Trump's methods

SwedishEdith · 07/06/2018 21:43

blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/06/boris-johnson-leaked-tape-best-quotes/

On Brexit talks

“Concentrate on maximum facilitation. That’s what we want. Solve the technical problem. We can easily find a solution that allows us to have trade that is frictionless as possible… with our continental friends and partners while still be able to do free trade deals. It’s not beyond the wit of man… I think Theresa is going to go into a phase where we are much more combative with Brussels.. You’ve got to face the fact there may now be a meltdown. OK? I don’t want anybody to panic during the meltdown. No panic. Pro bono publico, no bloody panic. It’s going to be all right in the end.”

SwedishEdith · 07/06/2018 21:52

Bonnie Greer
@Bonn1eGreer

Harmsworth's choice of #GeordieGreig to edit the @DailyMailUK is not about #Brexit. At only 50 years old, 4th Viscount Rothermere can smell the coffee.The ageing; nostalgic & bunkered core readership of the paper will not keep it a player. 100% business

Icantreachthepretzels · 07/06/2018 22:01

^
Harmsworth's choice of #GeordieGreig to edit the @DailyMailUK is not about #Brexit. At only 50 years old, 4th Viscount Rothermere can smell the coffee.The ageing; nostalgic & bunkered core readership of the paper will not keep it a player. 100% business^

I think we are so far into brexit that all things are about brexit now ... even when they're not.
brexitmageddon won't keep the newspaper a player either.
I'm sure Viscount Rothmere is savvy enough to have placed the bulk of his money outside of the UK - but if the mail is a good little earner, then he'll lose a lot when the country goes into meltdown at the beginning of next April. No one buying papers. No one printing papers. No one turning up to work at the mail...

That could be classed as a business decision as well. But it's definitely about Brexit.

IrenetheQuaint · 07/06/2018 22:10

I don't think we will go into meltdown at the beginning of next April. I think that, for all intents and purposes, though probably not in name, we will still be in the EU.

RealityHasALiberalBias · 07/06/2018 22:12

Yes I get mixed up with the transition period thing - does that apply whether or not we have a deal, or is it the case that with no deal we’re on our own and brexmaggedon ensues then?

Does the transition period postpone brexmaggedon until 2020?

Icantreachthepretzels · 07/06/2018 22:46

I think if we have a transition period as part of a deal/fudge then brexitmageddon is Dec 2020 (or 2021 or 2023 or whenever it finally ends). If we crash out with no deal its brexitmaggedon a couple of days after b-day, when the food runs out (though if you work at a port it will start on 30th March).

If Irene is correct (and I would go a step further and say I'm not even convinced we'll be out at all) brexitmaggedon doesn't happen.

Or at least, that is my understanding of it.

MimpiDreams · 07/06/2018 22:55

So it's now official policy, we EU migrants and peace in Northern Ireland, are bargaining chips to get the trade deal they want. Page 2, 4th paragraph, she states she will not sign any withdrawal agreement unless the future trade deal is done at the same time:

mobile.twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1004764565014503432/photo/1

mathanxiety · 07/06/2018 23:16

I don't think there was ever any doubt that using human bargaining chips and brinkmanship about NI would be Theresa May's bottom line, MimpiDreams.

mathanxiety · 07/06/2018 23:17

You know it's bad when...

www.bbc.com/news/business-44398352
'Poundworld on brink of administration putting 5,300 jobs at risk'

MimpiDreams · 07/06/2018 23:18

No, I never doubted it. But it's still shocking to see it finally put down in writing. I'm so ashamed to be British right now. Sad

RedToothBrush · 07/06/2018 23:22

Peter Bone MP @PeterBoneUK
2.) Govt compromise on meaningful vote by agreeing to a statement, within 28 days of the Commons not passing the withdrawal agreement and framework for the future relationship, about how they propose to proceed in relation to the UK’s withdrawal from the EU under Article 50.

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
Government seek to overturn Lord Kerr meaningful vote amendment (which built on Grieve amendment loss) and take away the power of Parliament to instruct the executive if Withdrawal Deal voted down... big battle next week...

When is a compromise not a compromise?

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 07/06/2018 23:22

The EU has said repeatedly that there will be no transition without a signed Withdrawal Agreement satisfying the 3 prerequisites they have stated from the start of negotiations:

the NI border
expats rights
paying due bills

NI remains the roadblock

Also without these, there will be at most only the bare minimum future deals on trade - nowhere near frictionless - flights, essential agencies.

In such circumstances, the EU would be totally pissed off with the UK and might well let the govt and public stew in chaos for 6 months, as a reality check
i.e. Project Fear becomes Project Armageddon

lonelyplanetmum · 07/06/2018 23:23

Yes I get mixed up with the transition period thing - does that apply whether or not we have a deal, or is it the case that with no deal we’re on our own and brexmaggedon ensues then?

It's very confusing...My understanding is that there's the Implementation period followed by the backstop. The latter falls away if we have a deal? See Theresa's letter.

So at the end of the Implementation period we either :

A) Have a new customs arrangement ( unlikely?). OR
B) We agree to apply the EU external customs tariffs, customs legislation (which bits?) and the common commercial policy. The letter says only the parts that are necessary to make the backstop work.

The letter says this would only be temporary and isn't the government's long term proposal. Which of course means that it is the long term proposal??

But as there's no long stop to the back stop ( is there?) doesn't this divert Brexmageddon? Confused.

Icantreachthepretzels · 07/06/2018 23:26

I just don't understand why she would do that. She doesn't have the power to make it happen. The EU will just say No.
She has no power here to make this so. So what then? an embarrassing climb down? Or a crash out?

What is her end game, here? Or do the govt really still not get that they are not the ones in control of the brexit negotiations - that the EU are the ones holding all the cards?

She seemed to be trying to make things softer, recently. She spent all morning dancing around with David Davis about the backstop - and now this. I don't get it ...

IrenetheQuaint · 07/06/2018 23:27

The EU don't want a failed state on their borders (with lots of EU citizens still living there). But they might very well take it to the wire - so a disorderly Remain scenario, or last-minute extension of Article 50. In this situation there would still be significant damage to businesses.

lonelyplanetmum · 07/06/2018 23:34

I am still confused as the backstop temporary customs arrangement ( the EU external customs tariffs, customs legislation (which bits?) and the common commercial policy.) ONLY applies in any interregnum if a long term customs agreement is reached first?

If a long term customs agreement isn't reached then the temporary arrangement doesn't apply.

So the backstop will only cover any gap, once the relationship beyond the gap is agreed?

MimpiDreams · 07/06/2018 23:43

She says that if no final trade deal is agreed then the whole lot is off the table. Her backstop is only relevant is the transition/implementation period runs out before the final deal stuff is up and running because of technical issues.