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Brexit

Westministenders: Brexmeggadon Redux.

990 replies

RedToothBrush · 03/06/2018 16:36

The last thread started about how the Withdrawal Bill was in tatters with The Rebel Forces feeling confident of staying in the Customs Union and there seemed to be a growing backlash towards the hostile environment and the need to reduce immigration.

This thread starts with the revelation this week that Farage has claimed that he never said the UK would be better off financially under Brexit, just that we would be self-governing and the Brexmeggadon Planning Revelation.

The Sunday Times has published a story about No Deal Brexit as senior civil servants have drawn up scenarios for David Davis. If you remember the minister responsible for No Deal is actually Steve Baker. That’s ERG founder Steve Baker. And if you remember he is facing queries from Brexiteers about whether he is truly committed to Brexit on the basis of his recent actions and comments.

There were reported that his plans for No Deal were stalling and proving impossible.

And today we have the Brexmeggadon ‘Project Fear’ article with three levels of jeopardy: Mild, Severe and ‘Oh my fucking God’.

Suddenly all our talk of stockpiling on Westministenders are starting to look rather prudent and enlightened. Ian Dunt’s book is looking like a Brexit Manual. David Allen Green is just standing there going ‘Well’. And George Osbourne is maniacally laughing his head off somewhere.

In the Level 2 Disaster Planning we are looking at Dover collapsing on Day One, food would run out within days and hospitals would run out of medicine within weeks. Petrol would run out within week two too.

As I’ve point out before in the worst case, the government has insufficient police and army to manage a worse case scenario.
Of course this is so explosive, its only been shared with a handful of ministers and are ‘locked in a safe’ and The Sunday Times don’t tell you what is in the ‘Bremeggadon’ scenario.

Or you could just read social media for the ‘scaremongering’.

We now have political attempts to FOI or force the publication of these reports to look forward too. The irony being that in this case the government will have a legitimate case that it would be against national security to release them. Of course they can’t actually admit that either!

Naturally Cabinet ministers and DeXeu has dismissed the article as not true. What else could they do?

Only for a ‘government source’ to claim that the denial was ‘untrue’ to Sam Coates of The Times.

Matthew Holehouse pointed out that the government can’t say for certain what impact no deal will have on medicine supply chains, because review on this isn’t due to finish its “initial” work until “late spring 2018”. Of course we are now in Summer 2018 and its still not been completed. Which obviously bodes well.

And there is talk of Chilcot style inquiries into Brexit sometime in the future. Westministenders is once again way ahead on that score…

----------------------

Meanwhile over in the Labour corner, growing pressure has been mounting on Corbyn. This week has seen the launch of a Corbyn supporting left wing pressure group, comprised of grassroots and trade unions to stop him supporting the harakiri of Tory Brexiteers.

We wait with tepid enthusiasm and sceptical levels of optimism for Corbyn’s climb down. St Jeremy knows what he wants...

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What does all this talk all mean? I think its difficult to read as much different to the media catching up with what the sane – who have a modicum of understanding of what trade deals, the custom union and the single market actually are - have been saying for sometime. Reality can’t be spun forever. At some point, you have to start preparing the public for the coming shit storm or the inevitable u-turn. This seems likely to be the move to kill off No Deal once and for all.

In terms of a ‘possible civil war’ under Brexmeggadon, its noticeable key Brexiteers are backing away from the cake. That doesn’t smack of civil unrest, that smacks of cowardice and a lack of Brexiteer leadership as no one is truly prepared to nail themselves to the mast as the ship starts to sink.

I also don’t think people will blame other people in the event of no food and no medicine and no medicine. I think people will be fairly unified in blaming those in charge who caused ‘No Deal’.
Oh and The American Trade Wars have began.

Ronald Regan ‘We should beware of the demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends—weakening our economy, our national security, and the entire free world—all while cynically waving the American flag.’

Hmmm. Sounds a lot like Brexit doesn't it?

Turnips anyone?
Planting season is late June to early July.

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Thread gallery
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DGRossetti · 07/06/2018 15:36

Even now it goes on ...

Just noticed a "discussion" on a tech forum where the OP seems a tad confused about the UKs position post-Brexit regarding data sharing saying "but we've got GDPR, so we're OK". Several people point out that GDPR has nothing to do with being in the EU, and that currently the UK shares data with the EU as an EU member. Which allows the UK to use the data for "security purposes" (and you can bet your bottom Euro the UK damn well is doing so).

When we leave the EU - as a non-member, the UK will face a sudden dramatic restriction on what it can use EU citizens data for - and will be required to provide legally binding assurances of this.

"But we're doing it now" wibbles Brexit-no-brains "so we can just carry on doing it."

What is it with people that they still cannot understand what "leaving the EU means" 2 years after voting for it.

54321go · 07/06/2018 15:37

Perhaps what they meant was 'we save 350 Million by leaving the EU so we can give it to America', they just forgot to mention the second half?

RedToothBrush · 07/06/2018 15:53

One of the biggest problems with Brexit is it is not, by definition, simply a political issue but also a legal one.

Whilst I'd say most people can have political views and understand politics (because ideology CAN be total bollocks), few have a particularly good understanding of law.

I think I don't really think about it, because for the most part I get the principles of law and that means I can read something legal and make some sense of it, even if I don't understand it fully or get the most fine points.

Very early on, it was pointed out - I think by David Allen Green - that May's Brexit Cabinet DIDN'T include anyone who was a lawyer. And the advice that May seemed to get or she ignored wasn't very good. (See the entire article 50 Court case). May's chip on her shoulder about the law and her track record with ignoring the law whilst in the Home Office was a pretty major personality flaw.

Its notable that the majority of the Tory Rebels come from a legal background. Why is that?

The ENTIRE Withdrawal Bill, is about law. And strangely, the Lords didn't like it. Why was that?

It is not simply because they are 'liberal elite'. Nor simply because they are all raving remainers, blind to what the public want. Its about what they can legally deliver.

And yet here we are June 2018.

And guess what Laura Kuennsberg just tweeted...

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
Nerd point - @DavidGauke was at Brexit Cttee today - I was told a few weeks ago there had been a plan to put him on there to include another Remainer. Seems he was there today because of a specific legal issue, but wonder if he will soon be on there for good

Its not a nerd point.

Its also not 'victory' about more Remainers imho.

That is about the reality of law and needing legal advice about issues.

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RedToothBrush · 07/06/2018 16:04

Patrick Maguire @patrickkmaguire
The irony of Theresa May’s headache on abortion law in Northern Ireland: if she does something she wants but the DUP doesn’t in legislating, she’ll have do something they arguably want but she really, really doesn’t in introducing direct rule.
www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2018/06/supreme-court-ruling-northern-ireland-s-abortion-laws-nightmare-government
The Supreme Court ruling on Northern Ireland’s abortion laws is a nightmare for the government
Theresa May now has cover to legislate for liberalisation - but the DUP could force her to then impose direct rule.

The courts have already ruled that the civil servants struggling to keep the administrative show on the road cannot take ministerial decisions in the absence of Stormont. The pressure the Supreme Court has applied over abortion hastens its journey to a political destination it is ill-equipped to manage. Constructive detachment from the business of running Northern Ireland won’t be an option for much longer. The consequences of today for the government are bigger than bad PR. They will be felt for much longer and widely than most realise.

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RedToothBrush · 07/06/2018 16:10

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
No10 folk are claiming a clear victory for the PM/Olly Robbins over DD. Clever drafting means “she’s done him like a kipper again”. This, to us, is particularly ouch;

Our head of Brexit negotiations can't manage to win a negotiation with his own PM.

Think about that.

Westministenders: Brexmeggadon Redux.
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SusanWalker · 07/06/2018 16:17

Although according to Nadine ........

Nadine Dorries
Nadine Dorries
@NadineDorries
David Davis is ex SAS He’s trained to survive. He’s also trained to take people out. #Brexit
10:27 am · 7 Jun 2018

Dobby1sAFreeElf · 07/06/2018 16:18

Tim Jones
@tim_jones6
Replying to @GuardianHeather
Is Brexit always three years away?
2016 = "We will leave in 2019"
2017 = "We will leave in 2020"
2018 = "We will leave in 2021"

Dobby1sAFreeElf · 07/06/2018 16:20

That is about the reality of law and needing legal advice about issues.
Its such a sorry state of affairs that it is a victory. For common sense. Probably only a very slight victory though!

SusanWalker · 07/06/2018 16:25

I did enjoy daily politics today. IDS informed the Irish brexit minister that he needed to start being more flexible as UK is Ireland's biggest export market. Irish minister turned to IDS and pointed out that actually, no it's not. With figures. Grin

I have come to the conclusion that leavers want to essentially be in the EU, without paying our dues, having to obey any laws or having EU immigration. Oh and blue passports..... Failure to achieve this will be both the EU and remainers' faults.

EmilyAlice · 07/06/2018 16:26

There is some fascinating stuff on Twitter on the Article 50 (Shindler) challenge, which comes before the EU court in Luxembourg in July. Could it possibly be that the Brexit process could be declared illegal?

Danniz · 07/06/2018 16:54

Blue passports have been the one great joy for Brexiters so far. Can we just negotiate with them so that they keep the blue passports and we stay in the EU?
We could throw in the requirement that EU citizens entering the UK to live have to leave if they haven't started a job within 3 months of entry.

Danniz · 07/06/2018 16:56

Why is the conservative party so toxic currently? Even the young conservatives apparently vie with each other to be as right wing as possible.

RedToothBrush · 07/06/2018 16:56

Raphael Hogarth @ raphael_hogarth
Halfway through a marathon three days of meetings w sources in Brussels, I reckon that the EU will
(1) accept that the backstop can be UK wide, but say that comes with more strings attached (budget, level playing field)
(2) reject any time limit.

Sam Coates Times @ samcoatestimes
On 2, they aren’t going to be asked to put one in legally binding text.

On 1. Shhhhhhhhhh you’re not meant to say that in public until after June EU council

Guido Fawkes @ guidofawkes
Since the backstop fudge was agreed...

- No10 has admitted ongoing payments to the EU are possible if it comes into force
- A govt minister, Alan Duncan, has said there could be a second referendum on the deal

Christopher Hope @ Christopherhope
^This is turning into Brexit's darkest day:
Britain could be stuck in EU for another year and pay for the privilege^
^Boris John's deputy Alan Duncan says there might be a second refendum
Pending: Government amendments ahead of Tuesday's vote^

Faisal Islam @ faisalislam
careful process of trying to compromise between Tory Brexiters and rebels over Withdrawal Bill amendments in lieu shortly to be tabled by Govt...

Brexiters reassured other side have compromised, suggest would have been churlish not to compromise on Ireland and meaningful vote...

Ian Wishart @ ianwishart
EU27 diplomat I spoke to described the UK's customs paper as "a joke" and the inclusion of the 2021 end-date as pretty much "irrelevant" to the negotiations. Barnier and co likely to be a little more conciliatory around the negotiating table but there's not much goodwill.

Guy Verhofstadt @ guyverhofstadt
Difficult to see how UK proposal on customs aspects of IE/NI backstop will deliver a workable solution to avoid a hard border & respect integrity of the SM/CU. A backstop that is temporary is not a backstop, unless the definitive arrangement is the same as the backstop.
#Brexit

Nick Gutteridge @ nick_gutteridge
Some pretty harsh language being thrown around about the UK’s customs paper here in Brussels tonight. Expect it to get a mauling in tomorrow’s papers.

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SusanWalker · 07/06/2018 16:59

Guy Verhofstadt
Guy Verhofstadt
@guyverhofstadt
·
1h
Difficult to see how UK proposal on customs aspects of IE/NI backstop will deliver a workable solution to avoid a hard border & respect integrity of the SM/CU. A backstop that is temporary is not a backstop, unless the definitive arrangement is the same as the backstop. #Brexit

Dobby1sAFreeElf · 07/06/2018 16:59

danniz nothing under EU law requires us to have the maroon passports.
EU law also doesn't prevent us from requesting people leave within a set time if they haven't secured work. Though a) there's a humane element to it and b) we decided not to set a system up to check. Other EU countries manage this pretty well, finland is one I know do for instance.
So I'm sure the EU would happily agree to their existing rules.

DGRossetti · 07/06/2018 17:00

.

Westministenders: Brexmeggadon Redux.
Westministenders: Brexmeggadon Redux.
RedToothBrush · 07/06/2018 17:08

Neil Gibbons @ neilgibbons
God, I hate David Davis’s brand of blokey it’s-really-quite-simple confidence. He’s like some prick at a golf club telling you you can’t wear jeans in the clubhouse then when you ask him why, he doesn’t know.

David Whitley @ mrdavidwhitley
David Davis is the sort of man who reckons he doesn't need a SatNav.

Ian Moore @ ianmodmoore
He only owns Greatest Hits albums.

Pedro Stephano @ Pedro Stephano
He uses a Swiss Army Knife to spread butter. Someone showed him the little scissors once. He was amazed.

Alan White @ aljwhite
Stands next to whoever’s doing the barbecue, criticizing their grilling technique.

Tom Chives @ tomchivers
Asks you when you last checked your wiper fluid levels then sucks his teeth when you say you didn’t know you were meant to do that

Padraig Reidy @ mepadraigreidy
Immediately tells you how much your car has devalued by since you bought it

Tom Phillips @ flashboy
Can’t get a round in without making a point of mocking at least one requested drink, if a woman asks for a pint he will check if that’s what she really wants at least three times

Christopher Hind @ hindchristopher
Puts up a shelf by eye

Jude Middleton @ grippsroad
Tells you how your name is actually pronounced.

Rufous @ rufous
Asks whether you've tried some obscure IPA, and when you say no, lists another twenty, all of which you also say no to as well, but he describes them all to you in great detail regardless while you sip your budvar.

David Waters @ Davejwaters
Sort of bloke who starts sentences, 'When I was in the SAS....

There are LOTS LOTS more of these....

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Danniz · 07/06/2018 17:15

Dobby - I'm well aware of that thanks - my post was tongue in cheek!

Dobby1sAFreeElf · 07/06/2018 17:24

Sorry danniz
It's been a long day.

RedToothBrush · 07/06/2018 17:45

Jon reynolds @ joneddyreynolds
Exclusive- Geordie Greig is to be new Daily Mail editor- formal announcement in next few days. Quick take story on @CityAM shortly

Not yet confirmed anywhere else

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Peregrina · 07/06/2018 17:46

Brexiteers fell into numerous camps when there was no single vision for Brexit.

Brexiters know exactly what they want - I see SusanWalker got there before me on this one. Stay in the EU with all the benefits, but not pay, have one way Freedom of Movement i.e. for Britons only, and not be subject to the ECJ unless it's to our advantage to take a case to it.

RedToothBrush · 07/06/2018 18:00

Laura Kuennsberg @ bbclaurak
Hear govt have put down three amendments to try to avoid defeats next week - one on meaningful vote, one on NI border and another on family reunion - should see text soon but no big shift on customs union vote

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Icantreachthepretzels · 07/06/2018 19:14

Blue passports have been the one great joy for Brexiters so far. Can we just negotiate with them so that they keep the blue passports and we stay in the EU?

I think this is fair. I would be willing to accept the embarrassment of a blue passport to retain my EU citizenship. In fact - on closer inspection of my feelings - I find I would be willing to accept a purple passport with Farage's gurning face slapped in the middle of it, in return for retaining my EU citizenship. That is how dedicated I am to the cause.

lonelyplanetmum · 07/06/2018 19:16

Icantreach - the really awful thing is that your proposed passport 'compromise' would probably have placated enough of the electorate to have avoided this debacle.

Dobby1sAFreeElf · 07/06/2018 19:34

I'd carry a photo of him in my wallet forever more if it got us out of this shambles Grin