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Brexit

Westministenders: Brexmeggadon Redux.

990 replies

RedToothBrush · 03/06/2018 16:36

The last thread started about how the Withdrawal Bill was in tatters with The Rebel Forces feeling confident of staying in the Customs Union and there seemed to be a growing backlash towards the hostile environment and the need to reduce immigration.

This thread starts with the revelation this week that Farage has claimed that he never said the UK would be better off financially under Brexit, just that we would be self-governing and the Brexmeggadon Planning Revelation.

The Sunday Times has published a story about No Deal Brexit as senior civil servants have drawn up scenarios for David Davis. If you remember the minister responsible for No Deal is actually Steve Baker. That’s ERG founder Steve Baker. And if you remember he is facing queries from Brexiteers about whether he is truly committed to Brexit on the basis of his recent actions and comments.

There were reported that his plans for No Deal were stalling and proving impossible.

And today we have the Brexmeggadon ‘Project Fear’ article with three levels of jeopardy: Mild, Severe and ‘Oh my fucking God’.

Suddenly all our talk of stockpiling on Westministenders are starting to look rather prudent and enlightened. Ian Dunt’s book is looking like a Brexit Manual. David Allen Green is just standing there going ‘Well’. And George Osbourne is maniacally laughing his head off somewhere.

In the Level 2 Disaster Planning we are looking at Dover collapsing on Day One, food would run out within days and hospitals would run out of medicine within weeks. Petrol would run out within week two too.

As I’ve point out before in the worst case, the government has insufficient police and army to manage a worse case scenario.
Of course this is so explosive, its only been shared with a handful of ministers and are ‘locked in a safe’ and The Sunday Times don’t tell you what is in the ‘Bremeggadon’ scenario.

Or you could just read social media for the ‘scaremongering’.

We now have political attempts to FOI or force the publication of these reports to look forward too. The irony being that in this case the government will have a legitimate case that it would be against national security to release them. Of course they can’t actually admit that either!

Naturally Cabinet ministers and DeXeu has dismissed the article as not true. What else could they do?

Only for a ‘government source’ to claim that the denial was ‘untrue’ to Sam Coates of The Times.

Matthew Holehouse pointed out that the government can’t say for certain what impact no deal will have on medicine supply chains, because review on this isn’t due to finish its “initial” work until “late spring 2018”. Of course we are now in Summer 2018 and its still not been completed. Which obviously bodes well.

And there is talk of Chilcot style inquiries into Brexit sometime in the future. Westministenders is once again way ahead on that score…

----------------------

Meanwhile over in the Labour corner, growing pressure has been mounting on Corbyn. This week has seen the launch of a Corbyn supporting left wing pressure group, comprised of grassroots and trade unions to stop him supporting the harakiri of Tory Brexiteers.

We wait with tepid enthusiasm and sceptical levels of optimism for Corbyn’s climb down. St Jeremy knows what he wants...

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What does all this talk all mean? I think its difficult to read as much different to the media catching up with what the sane – who have a modicum of understanding of what trade deals, the custom union and the single market actually are - have been saying for sometime. Reality can’t be spun forever. At some point, you have to start preparing the public for the coming shit storm or the inevitable u-turn. This seems likely to be the move to kill off No Deal once and for all.

In terms of a ‘possible civil war’ under Brexmeggadon, its noticeable key Brexiteers are backing away from the cake. That doesn’t smack of civil unrest, that smacks of cowardice and a lack of Brexiteer leadership as no one is truly prepared to nail themselves to the mast as the ship starts to sink.

I also don’t think people will blame other people in the event of no food and no medicine and no medicine. I think people will be fairly unified in blaming those in charge who caused ‘No Deal’.
Oh and The American Trade Wars have began.

Ronald Regan ‘We should beware of the demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends—weakening our economy, our national security, and the entire free world—all while cynically waving the American flag.’

Hmmm. Sounds a lot like Brexit doesn't it?

Turnips anyone?
Planting season is late June to early July.

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Thread gallery
33
RedToothBrush · 07/06/2018 09:52

Euro Guido @EuroGuido
Surely DD can't back down now. If May persists with Robbins' plan, how can he stay? What does he lose from quitting? Would he want to go down as the Brexit Secretary who didn’t make good on his threats and allowed Robbins’ Remainer Brexit?

Agree. You can't have two Brexit Departments. You never could. It was always going to come to Davis v Robbins at some point.

Just wish whatever is going to happen just did now, rather than string out the agony of it.

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54321go · 07/06/2018 09:54

While the 'bonfire of Downing St' smoulders for a few more hours/days I would like to observe on the 'sovereignty' topic that there is no way that 'Federal Europe' would ever happen at grass roots level. The peoples of each of the 27/28 countries would not accept it, and at least at a glance many hardly acknowledge their own government let along a 'Brussels bureaucratic' one.
I have a feeling (as I am not a historian ) that although the UK were involved heavily at various stages of the 'EU project' over the last 50 years and as a result managed to secure some good deals or opt outs, they were never fully committed to it and were too often 'standing by the fire door', ready to exit.

While there are many things 'wrong', or could be done better by the EU it has bound the whole of Europe together to prevent all out war which is a significant achievement, given European history.

RedToothBrush · 07/06/2018 09:56

Emma Vardy @EmmaVardyTV
BREAKING: Supreme Court dismisses Northern Ireland abortion appeal, but sends strong message to government with majority of judges concluding NI abortion law is incompatible with human rights

5 of the 7 judges concluded that the near-ban on abortions in NI is incompatible with human rights in cases of fatal foetal abnormality, where a baby would die in the womb or soon after birth

There was also a majority (4/3) who believed that NI law which forbids abortion in cases of rape and incest, is also incompatible with human rights

Lord Mance: “I would have concluded without real hesitation....that the current state of Northern Ireland is incompatible with Art 8 (of the European Convention of Human Rights)...in cases of fatal foetal abnormality, rape and incest”

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RedToothBrush · 07/06/2018 10:01

Beth Rigby @BethRigby
David Davis and Theresa May’s meeting wrapped up. His people gathering at No 9. Source tells me that if she won’t budge doesn’t see how he can stay. Adds May might find a fudge...

JUST QUIT!

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54321go · 07/06/2018 10:04

As a thought, what is 'wrong' with various MPs retiring or being 'sacked' for the good of Britain? they would get a decent pension and can largely drop into obscurity within a short time and 'get on with their lives'.
Cameron 'lit the blue touch paper and retired', as it says in the firework code.

DGRossetti · 07/06/2018 10:07

Hesters map is quite similar to the map of House of Fraser closures.

The thing is, every time DW and I bothered to visit HoF in Birmingham, they weren't stocking what we wanted or interested in. The only things they were interested in pushing was populist stuff (loads of baking knick knacks) which - by definition - you could get anywhere else.

But a filleting knife, a grapefruit knife, plain cast iron pans ? In the first two cases it was "you what ?" and the third one "we have 'LaCrueset'" (to which my reply was "that's very nice. Now do you have what I asked for ?").

Apart from groceries (and they're getting worse) almost all other shopping is done online. Recently ordered 3 glass pipettes for £4.80 (including P&P) from Amazon which were delivered in 6 days from China. If I'd wasted my time at our local shopping centre (parking £2.50 on a Sunday) I would have returned empty handed. Coffee and cake shops don't sell pipettes.

This isn't a "blip". Like the ongoing decline in PC (and now tablet and smartphone sales) there is no going back. The sooner people realise this, process it, and work out how to move on, the better.

Just mentioned it to DW, and she's surprised. We both thought Debenhams would be first ....

RedToothBrush · 07/06/2018 10:07

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
As ever, by the end of today all could be calm..... but, very very dark mutterings on both sides of tory party this morning about where next

One v senior MP furious tells me ‘the problem is No 10 is just not good enough - they make the wrong decision every time’

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DGRossetti · 07/06/2018 10:11

As a thought, what is 'wrong' with various MPs retiring or being 'sacked' for the good of Britain?

Maybe a compromise ? Keep FPTP and abolish general elections. Instead have MPs on a rolling term, with 1/3 having to be re-elected every 2 or 3 years ? It would be a move towards a more republican model where we're not governed but a snapshot of what people thought between 7am and 10pm on a particular Thursday years ago.

prettybird · 07/06/2018 10:46

I have often thought that - especially since Thatcher when she threw even the semblance of consensus politics out the window (and increased the influence of Bernard Ingrams a non elected official ) - that once an election happens and a government is formed, we may as well save money by sending the rest of the MPs home.

We live in an electoral dictatorship. Sad

Obviously, the current parliament and minority government is a rare exception - but all that had happened is that the DUP have become part of that dictatorship (Angry), holding the government to ransom and quite happy for NI to continue under direct rule as that means that they are in control Angry And the fact that at the moment we don't have any an effective opposition just makes matters worse Angry (There is a limit as to how much the SNP, Plaid Cymru, the Lib Dems and the Green can do without Labour Wink).

The fact that at the moment the House of Lords is the only effective and reasonable opposition, holding the Government to account, is both an indictment of the UK democratic system - and its saving grace Confused

NoCryingInEngineering · 07/06/2018 11:00

Debenhams has decent kids clothes DGR which probably helps their position. As the little darlings keep growing out of things

Dobby1sAFreeElf · 07/06/2018 11:01

They also do a very good, if limited, range of school shoes.

Cailleach1 · 07/06/2018 11:02

KenDodd Has DD actually achieved anything in his negotiations with the EU?

Oh yes he has. Don't you remember when he went on TV and gave a wink wink, nudge nudge that the backstop they agreed to to could be ignored really.

He achieved making the UK gov't look dodgy as heck. Between smirks and sniggers.

Motheroffourdragons · 07/06/2018 11:16

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

RedToothBrush · 07/06/2018 11:20

Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes
Given Sajid Javid and Gavin Williamson are missing the 1230 subcommittee,
does TM have a 6-5 majority to batter down DD

(Yes I know they don’t vote)

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
1. Senior source tells me there will ‘more clarity’ on the time limit on the backstop - and will still be published today - but ‘nobody will be resigning from the govt today’ - Davis and May still in meeting in Commons - let’s see

2. In a parallel universe, another senior tory tells me DD will not be backing down - so either PM folds or he does - and if he quits other resignations could follow

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BigChocFrenzy · 07/06/2018 11:32

DD may resign in protest at his own incompetence 😂😂

I am old enough to remember when the convention was that ministers resigned if they made a bad mistake

or even if their civil servants made the mistake, since the minister is supposed to be in charge

Now they just seem to resign if caught with their trousers down

Cherrypi · 07/06/2018 11:44

Ooh do you think that May won the argument? Bet DD doesn’t resign unfortunately.

DGRossetti · 07/06/2018 11:56

I think if you want to be a high end dept store

I think nobody does ...

BigChocFrenzy · 07/06/2018 11:57

https://www.politico.eu/article/how-brexiteers-lost-control-of-brexit/

One member of the ERG, who signed the group’s letter to the prime minister in February demanding the U.K. leaves the customs union and secures “full regulatory autonomy,”
said they have since changed their view.

“I voted Leave and I’m a free-marketeer but I care more about stopping Corbyn getting into No. 10 [Downing Street] than I do about signing new trade deals,” the MP said.

The uncompromising faction of the ERG increasingly now sees Brexit Secretary David Davis and Johnson as the only Cabinet Leavers sticking to its red lines.

The problem for those who subscribe to this view is they have little leverage to force May to change tack.
Despite having the numbers to trigger a confidence vote that could topple the prime minister, most hard-line Brexiteers agree she would likely win the support of a majority of Tory MPs.

What’s more, in the event that a challenge succeeds and installs a Brexiteer in Downing Street,
this faction does not have enough votes in the House of Commons to get through their vision of Brexit,
and that would not change without another general election.

Senior Leavers in the government said the U.K. is headed for a Brexit that nominally keeps the country outside the single market
but binds Britain to the EU’s regulatory framework

  • to all intents and purposes inside a customs union and with large, ongoing payments to Brussels.

In such a scenario, the only tangible policy difference felt by British voters would be on immigration, Leavers say,
with Downing Street calculating that is what the majority of those who voted for Brexit care about most."

"Despite appearances, May has had a better month than she expected, but she faces one last stand from those disgruntled Brexiteers she has yet to win over."

"Discontent within DExEU is such that ministers in the department have discussed whether they can stay in post if Downing Street does not listen."

whymewhynow · 07/06/2018 12:13

Forgive my ignorance, I have been following these threads but haven't contributed, but even if the government come to an agreement, will this new backstop be acceptable to the EU? Have they given any clues to that? It seems to me that although the CU is important to solve the Irish border - among many other things - the Single Market is more important and the government hasn't even attempted to tackle that. Am I being overly pessimistic?

Danniz · 07/06/2018 12:26

I thought that an EU red line was that you couldn't have full access without freedom of movement?
My personal red line is that I want freedom of movement for my DCS!

RedToothBrush · 07/06/2018 12:35

Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes
Senior gvt sources AND brexiteers are busy claiming they've won. Developing....
Obviously, they can't both be right
This morning the ERG were wanting rid of Olly Robbins. Suddenly all brexiteers seem happy. I wonder I wonder....
There has been conflicting accounts about how much Robbins is enjoying being the target of brexiteer attacks vs having THE pivotal job in UK civil service politics

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
Davis has now been called BACK in to see the PM
Earlier meeting ended with no conclusion

Kevin Schofield @PolhomeEditor
That is certainly not what we were being briefed by senior government sources an hour ago.

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
Indeed so -

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RedToothBrush · 07/06/2018 12:52

Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes
Olly Robbins will NOT be leaving his post says senior Whitehall source
David Davis apparently staying says @bbclaurak and brexiteers once again claiming to me they have won on the backstop and it’s all on (until tomorrow when it hits EU so say no hard date acceptable)

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RedToothBrush · 07/06/2018 12:54

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
Crucially there IS a date in updated version of the document I m told

David Allen Green @davidallengreen
Davis claims May has agreed the backstop so not be a backstop...

...but if the backstop is not a backstop then it will not be agreed by EU27, and is contrary to what the UK agreed in December.

Kick the pebble

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RedToothBrush · 07/06/2018 12:57

Raphael Hogarth @Raphael_Hogarth
Can someone please put a time limit on the David Davis story

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prettybird · 07/06/2018 13:07

It must be so frustrating for the EU and its negotiators: May et al spend months agonising over something that they can agree to - without any apparent consideration as to whether it would acceptable to the EU Confused

And then they get all outraged and affronted when the EU says, "Naw" Confused