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Brexit

Westministenders: Brexmeggadon Redux.

990 replies

RedToothBrush · 03/06/2018 16:36

The last thread started about how the Withdrawal Bill was in tatters with The Rebel Forces feeling confident of staying in the Customs Union and there seemed to be a growing backlash towards the hostile environment and the need to reduce immigration.

This thread starts with the revelation this week that Farage has claimed that he never said the UK would be better off financially under Brexit, just that we would be self-governing and the Brexmeggadon Planning Revelation.

The Sunday Times has published a story about No Deal Brexit as senior civil servants have drawn up scenarios for David Davis. If you remember the minister responsible for No Deal is actually Steve Baker. That’s ERG founder Steve Baker. And if you remember he is facing queries from Brexiteers about whether he is truly committed to Brexit on the basis of his recent actions and comments.

There were reported that his plans for No Deal were stalling and proving impossible.

And today we have the Brexmeggadon ‘Project Fear’ article with three levels of jeopardy: Mild, Severe and ‘Oh my fucking God’.

Suddenly all our talk of stockpiling on Westministenders are starting to look rather prudent and enlightened. Ian Dunt’s book is looking like a Brexit Manual. David Allen Green is just standing there going ‘Well’. And George Osbourne is maniacally laughing his head off somewhere.

In the Level 2 Disaster Planning we are looking at Dover collapsing on Day One, food would run out within days and hospitals would run out of medicine within weeks. Petrol would run out within week two too.

As I’ve point out before in the worst case, the government has insufficient police and army to manage a worse case scenario.
Of course this is so explosive, its only been shared with a handful of ministers and are ‘locked in a safe’ and The Sunday Times don’t tell you what is in the ‘Bremeggadon’ scenario.

Or you could just read social media for the ‘scaremongering’.

We now have political attempts to FOI or force the publication of these reports to look forward too. The irony being that in this case the government will have a legitimate case that it would be against national security to release them. Of course they can’t actually admit that either!

Naturally Cabinet ministers and DeXeu has dismissed the article as not true. What else could they do?

Only for a ‘government source’ to claim that the denial was ‘untrue’ to Sam Coates of The Times.

Matthew Holehouse pointed out that the government can’t say for certain what impact no deal will have on medicine supply chains, because review on this isn’t due to finish its “initial” work until “late spring 2018”. Of course we are now in Summer 2018 and its still not been completed. Which obviously bodes well.

And there is talk of Chilcot style inquiries into Brexit sometime in the future. Westministenders is once again way ahead on that score…

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Meanwhile over in the Labour corner, growing pressure has been mounting on Corbyn. This week has seen the launch of a Corbyn supporting left wing pressure group, comprised of grassroots and trade unions to stop him supporting the harakiri of Tory Brexiteers.

We wait with tepid enthusiasm and sceptical levels of optimism for Corbyn’s climb down. St Jeremy knows what he wants...

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What does all this talk all mean? I think its difficult to read as much different to the media catching up with what the sane – who have a modicum of understanding of what trade deals, the custom union and the single market actually are - have been saying for sometime. Reality can’t be spun forever. At some point, you have to start preparing the public for the coming shit storm or the inevitable u-turn. This seems likely to be the move to kill off No Deal once and for all.

In terms of a ‘possible civil war’ under Brexmeggadon, its noticeable key Brexiteers are backing away from the cake. That doesn’t smack of civil unrest, that smacks of cowardice and a lack of Brexiteer leadership as no one is truly prepared to nail themselves to the mast as the ship starts to sink.

I also don’t think people will blame other people in the event of no food and no medicine and no medicine. I think people will be fairly unified in blaming those in charge who caused ‘No Deal’.
Oh and The American Trade Wars have began.

Ronald Regan ‘We should beware of the demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends—weakening our economy, our national security, and the entire free world—all while cynically waving the American flag.’

Hmmm. Sounds a lot like Brexit doesn't it?

Turnips anyone?
Planting season is late June to early July.

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Thread gallery
33
mathanxiety · 06/06/2018 23:14

IheartNiles
The EU is too pig headed an organisation to listen to people and make changes to its inflexible policies so we have the rise of extremist politics here, in Italy, Spain and so on.

I disagree with this.

I think this is very much a 'which came first/chicken or egg' question.

It doesn't take much effort to capitalise on prejudice and set up an effigy to be burned.

RedToothBrush · 06/06/2018 23:24

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
After all that, govt may not publish backstop proposals tomorrow - number ten trying to find way of giving David Davis some more of what he wants before publication

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RedToothBrush · 06/06/2018 23:26

Faisal Islam @faisalislam

PM in quite a pickle here.
Brexiter MPs glum about "endless backstop" being a backdoor sellout. Davis also unhappy unless time-limited.

But Backstop with time limit "is not a backstop" says Irish & EU.

More important: backstop "immensely important" for Tory Remainer rebels.

The prospect of the backstop was being used to reassure Tory Rebels not to rebel next week on the EU Withdrawal Bill, and to give the PM a clean bill to take with her to Brussels...
They were also led to believe it was signed off in Cabinet already

If she changes tack on this, Remainer Rebels will lose faith in reassurances on NI, and vote against Government next week.
If she does not, what will David Davids, Foreign Sec do?

It is either time limited or it is not. Unless this is Quantum Brexit.

One Tory MP: "if the backstop is not there, it means Government can't push a policy through - the problem is the Cabinet and a breakdown of collective responsibility. If they dont like the policy they should resign"

Some Tory MPs have threatened to vote against the Programme Motion next week - one detail - Commons Leader likely to announce that the one day of debate is now over two days

But rebels on this side say "there is no deal" to vote out the Lords amendments next week - indeed they have made "a statement of intent" by signing up for an EEA/Efta amendment to the Trade Bill, giving another chance for this, probably next month

Importantly, some work also going on re potential Government amendments, and amendments to amendments that can be accepted - we will know tomorrow. But one example is Ireland, where Lords passed an amendment, which might well be accepted apart from one clause which DUP dont like

Last point - was told that the DUP have been squared off on the backstop - remember what Foster told our David Blevins about "only one red line" - same treatment across UK

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RedToothBrush · 06/06/2018 23:27

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn

David Davis tells friends he’ll stay on and fight the “people trying to box me in”; ie the PM and Olly Robbins. But how long can this psychodrama last?

www.thesun.co.uk/news/6468061/theresa-may-david-davis-brexit-split/

Theresa May and David Davis in brutal Brexit battle on EU customs split, sparking resignation rumours
The Brexit Secretary revolted on EU customs tie as PM refused to define precise cut-off for Irish border solution

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RedToothBrush · 06/06/2018 23:30

My feeling to the above two threads by Faisal Islam an Tom Newton Dunn, is that Davis etc have to be seen to be opposing this.

The reality is that any 'boxing in' was done a long time ago when A50 was triggered without a plan. This is just everything catching up with that.

But in the absence of an alternative at some point they will either resign or capitulate with many toys being thrown out of the pram in a dramatic fashion to grab as many headlines as possible in the process of doing so.

The numbers - and the power - don't lie with the Brexiteers.

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BigChocFrenzy · 06/06/2018 23:37

The members of the EU decide it is in their interests to refuse to radically change their organisation to please the UK

That doesn't make them pig-headed.
It makes the UK ridiculously entitled to expect otherwise

mrsreynolds · 07/06/2018 06:31

I wonder what today will bring....?

Bibesia · 07/06/2018 07:10

Dacre's still desperate for his knighthood. Maybe resigning is his last throw in that particular game?

TheEmojiFormerlyKnownAsPrince · 07/06/2018 07:16

David Davies threatened to resign a few moths ago over something else.

Wish he actually would.

KennDodd · 07/06/2018 07:57

Has DD actually achieved anything in his negotiations with the EU?

lonelyplanetmum · 07/06/2018 08:09

Think DDs high point was " the row of the summer" . Remember that where he conceded on Day 1.

(Bizarrely I once helped present a negotiation skills course, rowing did not feature.)

GhostofFrankGrimes · 07/06/2018 08:24

I wonder what today will bring....?

Another damp squib.

RedToothBrush · 07/06/2018 08:35

Dacre's still desperate for his knighthood.

All knighthoods have to be approved by the Queen right?

Why has Dacre not got one already?

Do we have to do Brexiteers again today? I am not sure I can bare to watch twitter! (Reads twitter between fingers)

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GhostofFrankGrimes · 07/06/2018 08:45

I was wondering whether Dacre was bailing so that he didn't have to explain to his readers post March 2019 why the unicorns hadn't turned up.

borntobequiet · 07/06/2018 08:47

I thought that too, Frank. A huge enormous flounce.

GhostofFrankGrimes · 07/06/2018 08:50

Blaming the EU/immigrants will only go so far. Even DM readers will start wondering "wasn't this supposed to be the easiest trade deal in history?". Once the mass job losses start there will be hell to pay.

TheElementsSong · 07/06/2018 09:03

Blaming the EU/immigrants will only go so far.

I disagree. Amongst some unknown, but I fear quite large, proportion of Leavers, there is literally nothing that can't somehow be deflected away from them and towards others.

Dobby1sAFreeElf · 07/06/2018 09:17

This made me spit my drink out earlier
@mrjamesob
Indeed. There seems a very real prospect that @DavidDavisMP is going to resign in protest at his own incompetence.

RedToothBrush · 07/06/2018 09:28

Sarah O'Grady @ExpressOGrady
Backstop not backed up by DD. Crunch time. 9am.

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
Rather helpfully, and i would never normally point to someone’s partner to say this but this is intel from Davis’ chief of staff’s wife!

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn (from 10 mins ago)
Brexit backstop psychodrama latest: PM and DD have just begun a meeting in No10. Am told she is still standing firm. So he has quite a big decision to make over the next hour.

re: dacre

Gaby Hinsliff @gabyhinsliff
You'll hear a lot today about the evil power of Paul Dacre etc & fair enough. Less obvious is the decline of that power & the fact that Mail now faces similar existential challenge to ageing Conservative party
May was Dacre's pick for leader at a time when other papers weren't interested & ran a Dacre-pleasing election campaign which the Mail supported (e.g. over social care) even when its readers didn't
A year on we all know how that turned out. Ditto the Brext Dacre arguably did so much to visit on us. Social media has srsly disrupted old media's reach & influence & industry is shifting - MailOnline isn't a campaigning force like the paper
So; there will always be millions who want to vote Tory & read a rightwing paper. But they're not quite the same people they were 20yrs ago & any institution that doesn't recognise that will struggle. End of what wasn't meant to be a thread.

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RedToothBrush · 07/06/2018 09:30

Joel Hills @ITVJoel
Breaking: House of Fraser to close 31 of its 59 stores with the loss of 6,000 jobs. Retailer has filed CVA proposal which it is asking creditors to vote to support on June 22nd. Business “does not have a viable future” in its current form.

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RedToothBrush · 07/06/2018 09:37

order-order.com/2018/06/07/erg-mps-tell-may-sack-robbins/
ERG MPs Tell May to Sack Olly Robbins

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RedToothBrush · 07/06/2018 09:41

Alex Wickham @WikiGuido
One ally of David Davis says the chances of him resigning are 50-50. A second says he is considering resigning: "If he goes she's toast"

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RedToothBrush · 07/06/2018 09:42

Paul Waugh @paulwaugh
Has Boris breached the PM's new 'waiver' restricting him to talking about Heathrow only to his local paper? At CWF event (attended by national media) last night: "It's the right idea, in the wrong place".

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DGRossetti · 07/06/2018 09:45

Education ...

Westministenders: Brexmeggadon Redux.
DGRossetti · 07/06/2018 09:49

Has Boris breached the PM's new 'waiver' restricting him to talking about Heathrow only to his local paper?

Have the rules of cabinet government been rewritten somewhere. (Let's put to one side the fact they weren't actually written to start with) ?

My (admittedly not as hot as David Davies intellect) understanding of cabinet government is that once a policy is collectively agreed, it's every minster publicly backs it. If they don't agree - well as Michael Heseltine memorably demonstrated - they must resign their position.

If I'm wrong, I'd be grateful to be told so. After all I'd hate to be mistaken for Brexiteer Sad.