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Brexit

Westministenders: Brexmeggadon Redux.

990 replies

RedToothBrush · 03/06/2018 16:36

The last thread started about how the Withdrawal Bill was in tatters with The Rebel Forces feeling confident of staying in the Customs Union and there seemed to be a growing backlash towards the hostile environment and the need to reduce immigration.

This thread starts with the revelation this week that Farage has claimed that he never said the UK would be better off financially under Brexit, just that we would be self-governing and the Brexmeggadon Planning Revelation.

The Sunday Times has published a story about No Deal Brexit as senior civil servants have drawn up scenarios for David Davis. If you remember the minister responsible for No Deal is actually Steve Baker. That’s ERG founder Steve Baker. And if you remember he is facing queries from Brexiteers about whether he is truly committed to Brexit on the basis of his recent actions and comments.

There were reported that his plans for No Deal were stalling and proving impossible.

And today we have the Brexmeggadon ‘Project Fear’ article with three levels of jeopardy: Mild, Severe and ‘Oh my fucking God’.

Suddenly all our talk of stockpiling on Westministenders are starting to look rather prudent and enlightened. Ian Dunt’s book is looking like a Brexit Manual. David Allen Green is just standing there going ‘Well’. And George Osbourne is maniacally laughing his head off somewhere.

In the Level 2 Disaster Planning we are looking at Dover collapsing on Day One, food would run out within days and hospitals would run out of medicine within weeks. Petrol would run out within week two too.

As I’ve point out before in the worst case, the government has insufficient police and army to manage a worse case scenario.
Of course this is so explosive, its only been shared with a handful of ministers and are ‘locked in a safe’ and The Sunday Times don’t tell you what is in the ‘Bremeggadon’ scenario.

Or you could just read social media for the ‘scaremongering’.

We now have political attempts to FOI or force the publication of these reports to look forward too. The irony being that in this case the government will have a legitimate case that it would be against national security to release them. Of course they can’t actually admit that either!

Naturally Cabinet ministers and DeXeu has dismissed the article as not true. What else could they do?

Only for a ‘government source’ to claim that the denial was ‘untrue’ to Sam Coates of The Times.

Matthew Holehouse pointed out that the government can’t say for certain what impact no deal will have on medicine supply chains, because review on this isn’t due to finish its “initial” work until “late spring 2018”. Of course we are now in Summer 2018 and its still not been completed. Which obviously bodes well.

And there is talk of Chilcot style inquiries into Brexit sometime in the future. Westministenders is once again way ahead on that score…

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Meanwhile over in the Labour corner, growing pressure has been mounting on Corbyn. This week has seen the launch of a Corbyn supporting left wing pressure group, comprised of grassroots and trade unions to stop him supporting the harakiri of Tory Brexiteers.

We wait with tepid enthusiasm and sceptical levels of optimism for Corbyn’s climb down. St Jeremy knows what he wants...

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What does all this talk all mean? I think its difficult to read as much different to the media catching up with what the sane – who have a modicum of understanding of what trade deals, the custom union and the single market actually are - have been saying for sometime. Reality can’t be spun forever. At some point, you have to start preparing the public for the coming shit storm or the inevitable u-turn. This seems likely to be the move to kill off No Deal once and for all.

In terms of a ‘possible civil war’ under Brexmeggadon, its noticeable key Brexiteers are backing away from the cake. That doesn’t smack of civil unrest, that smacks of cowardice and a lack of Brexiteer leadership as no one is truly prepared to nail themselves to the mast as the ship starts to sink.

I also don’t think people will blame other people in the event of no food and no medicine and no medicine. I think people will be fairly unified in blaming those in charge who caused ‘No Deal’.
Oh and The American Trade Wars have began.

Ronald Regan ‘We should beware of the demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends—weakening our economy, our national security, and the entire free world—all while cynically waving the American flag.’

Hmmm. Sounds a lot like Brexit doesn't it?

Turnips anyone?
Planting season is late June to early July.

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Thread gallery
33
RedToothBrush · 06/06/2018 16:50

Anything new on the Brexit traincrash?

There's a replacement bus service.

Nope that's been cancelled due to roadworks. Holes in the road you see.

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RedToothBrush · 06/06/2018 16:54

Kevin Schofield @PolhomeEditor
Valerie Vaz writes to John Bercow asking what safety measures have been put in place for MPs and their staff leaving the Commons after next week’s late-night votes on the EU Withdrawal Bill.

Westministenders: Brexmeggadon Redux.
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prettybird · 06/06/2018 16:58

With the wee detour into education, I'd just like to add that Scotland's Curriculum for Excellence, which has now been in place for 9 years (at least for exams - principles in place for longer) is designed in exactly the way that DGR suggests: to encourage lifelong learning and, just as importantly the ability to apply knowledge, not just rote learn it.

I'm not saying it's perfect but my experience of it (through ds) has generally been positive - unlike the way the media presents it with horror stories of "impossible" questions (eg the crocodile crossing the river with a current of x km/hour. Where do the zebras need to be in order to be safe? Grin or something along those lines Wink)

Also, in Scotland Modern Studies is a compulsory subject for 2-3 years (depending on how the school has implement CfE), which does provide all pupils with a background to modern life, issues of the day and voting systems - at least the Scottish ones Wink. In terms of "British" laws, education, politics - that's a difficult one, as in order to do that, you'd have to cover the fact that there are two legal systems, 3 education systems, different NHSs etc Confused

Also, the broadness of the Scottish education system means it is possible to keep your options open: ds changed his mind completely last summer ( before he got his Higher results) from wanting to do Maths/Physics/Astrophysics (and had already started on his Advanced Highers in Maths and Physics) to wanting to do International Relations Confused Fortunately, he'd also started doing a crash Higher in Modern Studies. Grin (Part of the joy of the flexibility in the Scottish exam system Wink)

He's off to Aberdeen Uni in September to do an MA in International Relations possibly with International Law but he'll see how his options go Smile (Scottish 4 year Arts degrees at the "Ancients" are automatically MAs, in case you are wondering Wink)

WorriedMutha · 06/06/2018 16:59

Loving all these perspectives. JRM's real power lies in his popularity amongst the Tory faithful. Commons arithmetic doesn't favour his ilk. However agonising this struggle has been, perhaps in the end it will emerge that TM has done the only thing she could have done. If she'd ditched Brexit earlier, she would have been challenged. She has had to herd all her cats to the inevitable and also wait for public opinion to catch up.

DGRossetti · 06/06/2018 17:03

JRM's real power lies in his popularity amongst the Tory faithful

But would that get him to be leader ? Especially in a multi candidate race ?

DGRossetti · 06/06/2018 17:04

She has had to herd all her cats to the inevitable and also wait for public opinion to catch up.

Public opinion, or the Daily Mail ?

RedToothBrush · 06/06/2018 17:28

www.channel4.com/news/by/gary-gibbon/blogs/tempers-fraying-over-brexit-meeting-summary
Tempers fraying over Brexit meeting summary

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Spot on by @GaryGibbonBlog. A huge fuss about the backstop because there's a dawning realisation among Tory ministers and MPs that the backstop will be the policy. Nothing else will be agreed in time now.

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colouringinagain · 06/06/2018 17:48

I've clearly arrived a bit late but thanks Red. Yes I'm also increasingly worried.

Can't decide whether to March or not on 23rd - don't want to go on my own!

Still trying to understand the backstop position!

EmilyAlice · 06/06/2018 17:59

Just looking at the wonderful pictures on my Twitter feed of D-day veterans and their French hosts today. God I hate Brexit.

RedToothBrush · 06/06/2018 17:59

Peter Geoghegan @PeterKGeoghegan
Between Iain Martin and Guido’s media corr in Politico, there is a marked lugubriousness among Brexiters. Not much by way of ‘plans’ either. Interesting few weeks ahead

Westministenders: Brexmeggadon Redux.
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RedToothBrush · 06/06/2018 18:10

Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes
Don't all shout at me - but there are rumours in Whitehall right now that the UK backstop proposal may go TONIGHT (posing the question why DD just said what he said)

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
Yup being told it is being sent to Brussels tonight, then published here in the morning

Peter Foster @pmdfoster
A backstop, before we all wet ourselves with excitement, that only addresses Customs Union. That’s 30% of Border checks. On Single Market alignment and ECJ it is silent - but cannot be for long if an all-UK backstop is designed to avoid Irish Sea Border. That’s the part that's explosive.

[and Rees-Smug will be all to keen to tell us]

Just a reminder of the Opinium poll at the weekend about what Brexit option was most popular with the public. The only one with over 50% support was EEA with restrictions.
opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Which-way-to-the-Brexit-FINAL.pdf

May will be aware of it. If you were May, knowing that, what would YOU do. If you were Brexiteer in the Cabinet, how easy would it be for you to argue against that?

Especially when the Tory Rebels seem resolute on their position on the Customs Union and have the numbers, and Labour seem to be leaning towards and EEA option, which the Tory Rebels have signalled they also have the numbers for, if Labour back it.

The ERG have the numbers to trigger the 1922 Committee. They don't appear have the numbers to oust May.

It is also notable today that there is talk that May has managed to split the Brexiteers into two camps: those who now support her, and the hardliners.

The maths SEEM to say at this stage that there WILL be a deal and the deal will be along the lines of the EEA. Because time scales mean there is no alternative.

But we shall see... Long way to go yet. More twists and turns are sure to crop up.

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RedToothBrush · 06/06/2018 18:20

Peston on FB:

David Davis, the Brexit secretary of state and arguably the most important minister in this government other than the PM, faces a moment of truth tomorrow.

He is completely clear that it would be a disastrous mistake for the Prime Minister and the UK government to offer Brussels a backstop proposal for keeping the Irish border open that does not contain a specified end date.

His reason is simple.

That backstop would commit the UK to staying in the customs union and single market.

And once the EU were to have that commitment, Davis believes - plausibly - that his Brussels interlocutor Michel Barnier would no longer have any incentive to negotiate seriously on alternative arrangements for keeping the border open.

Davis would have zero leverage in those talks to obtain technical or fiscal solutions to the border issue.

And since Davis takes the view that a backstop without an end date would castrate him, it is very difficult to see how he could stay in his job.

Now there is no sign of the PM and Downing Street backing down to give him what he wants. My Downing Street sources tell me that it is impossible to write a date into the backstop, simply because it is impossible to know how long the backstop would be needed.

And they are also saying that we are likely to see the finished backstop tomorrow - though whether it will be published before or after the Brexit war cabinet meets (also tomorrow) is unclear.

For the avoidance of doubt, May and Downing Street are well aware that Davis has become more and more disillusioned about how they are backseat driving the Brexit negotiations - in a manner he sees as delivering sub-optimal outcomes (to put it euphemistically).

But they don't seem too bothered.

So will Davis quit tomorrow? I would not bet anything valuable on him choosing to stay.

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BestIsWest · 06/06/2018 18:20

Just place marking.

DGRossetti · 06/06/2018 18:26

dawning realisation among Tory ministers and MPs that the backstop will be the policy. Nothing else will be agreed in time now.

Can't say this paints them as being particularly bright, in any light.

RedToothBrush · 06/06/2018 18:28

Chris Leslie @ChrisLeslieMP (Labour)
Wow. A dozen Tory MPs who support #EEA Single Market have just tabled this pro EEA amendment to Trade Bill- they’re sending you a signal @jeremycorbyn @Keir_Starmer !!

Are Labour frontbench really going to miss next week’s historic chance to defeat PM & prevent #Brexitausterity?

SEVEN Tory Rebels plus a Labour Three Line whip and support from other parties, could defeat the government.

This amendment to the Trade Bill has TWELVE.

Brexiteers know the game is up. Numbers are against them.

Toys, if they are about to be thrown, will be thrown in spectacular fashion SOON.

Westministenders: Brexmeggadon Redux.
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RedToothBrush · 06/06/2018 18:31

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Tom Newton Dunn Retweeted Robert Peston
Uh oh...

Something is brewing.

Tonight / Tomorrow could be very interesting...

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RedToothBrush · 06/06/2018 18:31

"May you live in interesting times"

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RedToothBrush · 06/06/2018 18:36

Mirror Politics @MirrorPolitics
Theresa May caves to Tory rebels in frantic bid to stop them derailing Brexit bill
www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-caves-tory-rebels-frantic-12658085
Theresa May caves to Tory rebels in frantic bid to stop them derailing Brexit bill
The Prime Minister hoped to do away with all 15 amendments to her EU Withdrawal Bill in a single, 12 hour session on Tuesday

But in a bid to head off rebels pushing for Britain to remain in an European Economic Area, who could have inflicted an embarrassing Commons defeat on the Government, the Mrs May is understood to have “compromised.”

The bill will now be debated across two days - Tuesday June 12th and Wednesday June 13th - with six hours of debate on each day.

The Prime Minister is also understood to have agreed to bring the trade and customs bill back to the House of Commons before the summer recess.

The news emerged as Downing Street said details of the “backstop” arrangement would be published “shortly.”

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RedToothBrush · 06/06/2018 18:42

Tom Newton Dunn @ tnewtondunn (2 mins ago)
Latest: DD is still telling friends tonight he won't resign.

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EmilyAlice · 06/06/2018 18:52

Red should that be "May, you live in interesting times".

RedToothBrush · 06/06/2018 18:52

Steven Swinford @ steven_swinford
David Davis was due to present the Irish Backstop tomorrow morning. He's refused. It's now expected to be fronted by Karen Bradley instead. EVERYTHING IS GOING SWIMMINGLY

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RedToothBrush · 06/06/2018 19:15

Darth Dacre is going!

Amol Rajan @ amolrajanbbc
+++ SCOOP: Paul Dacre resigning as Mail editor by his 70th birthday +++
2/ Dacre will become Chairman of the Company and Editor-in-Chief of Associated
Dacre’s birthday is in November. He has been an Editor for 28 years, 26 of them at the Mail

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RedToothBrush · 06/06/2018 19:17

www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2018/06/all-times-david-davis-has-threatened-resign-over-brexit-didn-t?amp&__twitter_impression=true
All the times David Davis has threatened to resign over Brexit – but didn’t

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lalalonglegs · 06/06/2018 19:40

If Dacre isn't allowed to crown his successor, then Geordie Grieg is considered a shoo-in and he's a remainer.

KennDodd · 06/06/2018 19:51

If we get to Brexit minus 10 say, no deal done, facing WTO and Brexmeggadon I assume panic buying and a scramble to leave the country would have already begun. Could the Queen step in at that point and put a halt to this? That's assuming the EU agreed of course.