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Brexit

Westministenders: Brexmeggadon Redux.

990 replies

RedToothBrush · 03/06/2018 16:36

The last thread started about how the Withdrawal Bill was in tatters with The Rebel Forces feeling confident of staying in the Customs Union and there seemed to be a growing backlash towards the hostile environment and the need to reduce immigration.

This thread starts with the revelation this week that Farage has claimed that he never said the UK would be better off financially under Brexit, just that we would be self-governing and the Brexmeggadon Planning Revelation.

The Sunday Times has published a story about No Deal Brexit as senior civil servants have drawn up scenarios for David Davis. If you remember the minister responsible for No Deal is actually Steve Baker. That’s ERG founder Steve Baker. And if you remember he is facing queries from Brexiteers about whether he is truly committed to Brexit on the basis of his recent actions and comments.

There were reported that his plans for No Deal were stalling and proving impossible.

And today we have the Brexmeggadon ‘Project Fear’ article with three levels of jeopardy: Mild, Severe and ‘Oh my fucking God’.

Suddenly all our talk of stockpiling on Westministenders are starting to look rather prudent and enlightened. Ian Dunt’s book is looking like a Brexit Manual. David Allen Green is just standing there going ‘Well’. And George Osbourne is maniacally laughing his head off somewhere.

In the Level 2 Disaster Planning we are looking at Dover collapsing on Day One, food would run out within days and hospitals would run out of medicine within weeks. Petrol would run out within week two too.

As I’ve point out before in the worst case, the government has insufficient police and army to manage a worse case scenario.
Of course this is so explosive, its only been shared with a handful of ministers and are ‘locked in a safe’ and The Sunday Times don’t tell you what is in the ‘Bremeggadon’ scenario.

Or you could just read social media for the ‘scaremongering’.

We now have political attempts to FOI or force the publication of these reports to look forward too. The irony being that in this case the government will have a legitimate case that it would be against national security to release them. Of course they can’t actually admit that either!

Naturally Cabinet ministers and DeXeu has dismissed the article as not true. What else could they do?

Only for a ‘government source’ to claim that the denial was ‘untrue’ to Sam Coates of The Times.

Matthew Holehouse pointed out that the government can’t say for certain what impact no deal will have on medicine supply chains, because review on this isn’t due to finish its “initial” work until “late spring 2018”. Of course we are now in Summer 2018 and its still not been completed. Which obviously bodes well.

And there is talk of Chilcot style inquiries into Brexit sometime in the future. Westministenders is once again way ahead on that score…

----------------------

Meanwhile over in the Labour corner, growing pressure has been mounting on Corbyn. This week has seen the launch of a Corbyn supporting left wing pressure group, comprised of grassroots and trade unions to stop him supporting the harakiri of Tory Brexiteers.

We wait with tepid enthusiasm and sceptical levels of optimism for Corbyn’s climb down. St Jeremy knows what he wants...

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What does all this talk all mean? I think its difficult to read as much different to the media catching up with what the sane – who have a modicum of understanding of what trade deals, the custom union and the single market actually are - have been saying for sometime. Reality can’t be spun forever. At some point, you have to start preparing the public for the coming shit storm or the inevitable u-turn. This seems likely to be the move to kill off No Deal once and for all.

In terms of a ‘possible civil war’ under Brexmeggadon, its noticeable key Brexiteers are backing away from the cake. That doesn’t smack of civil unrest, that smacks of cowardice and a lack of Brexiteer leadership as no one is truly prepared to nail themselves to the mast as the ship starts to sink.

I also don’t think people will blame other people in the event of no food and no medicine and no medicine. I think people will be fairly unified in blaming those in charge who caused ‘No Deal’.
Oh and The American Trade Wars have began.

Ronald Regan ‘We should beware of the demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends—weakening our economy, our national security, and the entire free world—all while cynically waving the American flag.’

Hmmm. Sounds a lot like Brexit doesn't it?

Turnips anyone?
Planting season is late June to early July.

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RedToothBrush · 06/06/2018 15:21

The Independent @Independent
Italy’s new populist prime minister uses first speech to call for end of sanctions on Russia

That'll be popular at No. 10.

OP posts:
EmilyAlice · 06/06/2018 15:27

Cambridge Analytica stuff much more exciting, but anyone interested in the statutory curriculum for Citizenship might want to have a glance at this.
www.teachingcitizenship.org.uk/about-citizenship/citizenship-curriculum

DGRossetti · 06/06/2018 15:30

Partly I think this is because people are always trying to add to the curriculum without ever telling schools what they can leave out. About that I am cynical.

Again, I can't speak for the rest of the world, but as a child, student, graduate, and then parent, the UKs state education system isn't really up to scratch.

Even as I was graduating there was talk of "jobs for life" being a thing of the past and the acknowledgement that the workplace of the future would be rapidly changing and education could not deliver a syllabus to cope.

My son was born, grew up, went to school, college and into work in the meantime with remarkably little fundamental change. Which appears to be a common situation, all state-delivered services suffer from.

Education should be much more about equipping students with the tools of learning than rote-learning of yesterdays facts enshrined in a pretty archaic exam system (when it works) leading to a Eurovision style points fest for further academia.

Once you have the critical faculties to learn, education should morph into a lifelong process where skills are refreshed, renewed, developed, adapted, kept up to date, and in partnership between the idea of "work" and "study", with employers being encouraged to engage by cunning use of the tax system (also nowhere near fit for the 21st century, but one behemoth at time ...). Maybe we could see a reversal of the concept of maternity leave, as taking a few months out of a job to top up skills becomes the norm rather than a stick which we are still beating mothers with today. (Repeat, it's the 21st fucking century fgs ....)

DGRossetti · 06/06/2018 15:36

but anyone interested in the statutory curriculum for Citizenship might want to have a glance at this.

Interesting. Shame it can't be retrofitted to the Bramy Brexit Brigade. Although I'm willing to try some experiments with large print versions and repeated percussive application to the frontal lobes.

EmilyAlice · 06/06/2018 15:44

Well as a parent, grandparent and retired inspector of schools I would have to disagree with you there DG. The education system is far from perfect, suffers from severe underfunding, far too much political interference and way too much pressure on schools to change on the whim of the bright ideas of the latest government.
I have however been lucky enough to observe many, many excellent schools and brilliant hardworking teachers. My own children (now in their forties) had a boring but reasonably effective grammar school education, but what my grandchildren are getting in their comprehensive school is absolutely outstanding and it certainly isn't just about cramming facts.

EmilyAlice · 06/06/2018 15:45

Disagreeing with post at 1530 not 1536 DG. 😀

DGRossetti · 06/06/2018 15:47

Well as a parent, grandparent and retired inspector of schools I would have to disagree with you there DG.

Fair enough Grin

The education system is far from perfect, suffers from severe underfunding, far too much political interference and way too much pressure on schools to change on the whim of the bright ideas of the latest government.

but no argument from me there Smile.

This is all terribly civilised, isn't it ?

Peregrina · 06/06/2018 15:53

I'm with Frankiestein in believing that only Boris could pull of the EU-turn required, "Sorry chaps, Brexit can't happen."

I would go further than Palermonese's statement re WW2 - a lot of people did well out of it: having been in and out of work during the 30s, steady good quality work was on offer and rationing brought decent food to the majority. Plus the vision to enact the NHS.

DGRossetti · 06/06/2018 15:57

I would go further than Palermonese's statement re WW2 - a lot of people did well out of it:

The US wasn't mentioned Grin ...

EmilyAlice · 06/06/2018 16:00

Terribly. 😀
I do get a bit of a red mist sometimes, but there is so much good stuff in English (I can only speak for English) schools and it just doesn't get out there, because the government of the day and the press are so relentlessly negative.
It was indeed awful when I started teaching in the seventies, but the improvement in teaching and learning now is remarkable to those of us who remember back that far.....
Sorry Red, very off-topic. 😮

DGRossetti · 06/06/2018 16:03

I'm with Frankiestein in believing that only Boris could pull of the EU-turn required, "Sorry chaps, Brexit can't happen."

Because Daddy said so Grin.

Maybe he could. But would he ? You'd have to have cojones of depleted Uranium to contemplate that in an atmosphere that's seen death threats and newspaper headlines abour "TRAITORS" ....

DGRossetti · 06/06/2018 16:04

Sorry Red, very off-topic

The only hope that our great-grandchildren will be able to avoid repeating this is education. Not at all OT.

RealityHasALiberalBias · 06/06/2018 16:06

I also think Boris is probably the only MP able to pull off a u-turn, but it's that same confidence and influence that - I believe - legitimised the Leave campaign enough to get them over the wire in the referendum.

After Cameron, I think he's one of the people largely responsible for this mess. And he's not even anti-Europe. The self-serving fucker.

Danniz · 06/06/2018 16:10

We've had exchange children from France and Germany who've been to our local comprehensive for a few weeks. They both thought that the teaching methods here were much better than in their countries. Lessons are much more interesting and interactive.

WorriedMutha · 06/06/2018 16:14

I have been devouring this thread and am delurking though haven't much to add to such a well informed debate. I am intrigued as to what Davis and Johnson might do as they have to sell their side a pup? Johnson has way too much personal ambition to hitch his wagon to what will be seen as a sell out. I am growing increasingly confident that we are getting a BINO at worst with room for optimism that we could just flat out remain as the futility of it all becomes apparent. Is May trolling Davis and Johnson? I really think if a big leaver breaks ranks and starts a bun fight, it's all over for team Brexit.

DGRossetti · 06/06/2018 16:17

I still think the UK education system is too fixated on "what do you want to do" at too early an age.

I discovered a love of art, creative writing and history which would have completely changed my O level, A level and degree choices too late into my 20s.

Anyway, back to Brexit ...

EmilyAlice · 06/06/2018 16:27

Having visited some French schools Danniz I would entirely agree with that. The primary schools reminded me of the early years of my career.....
DG My GCs are doing the IB middle years curriculum and the school also does IB post sixteen.

DGRossetti · 06/06/2018 16:27

Is May trolling Davis and Johnson?

It's becoming clear that May is receiving some guidance from a higher power. Although maybe not supernatural.

I wonder if the resolution will be like seeing a Rubiks cube solved. It seems impossible, and then - from nowhere - 3 twists and it's done.

When we look back, I suspect there will be a focus on some key timings that - as mere mortals - we've missed. Possibly around how long it would take to mount a leadership challenge Hmm. If we take that there's an issue that the JRM contingent "won't buy" the solution May has to sell (CU and all that) then there's a certain logic in stringing him/them along as a tactic to prevent them going off (as they wouldn't get much support if they rebelled without it being clear they're not getting what they wanted).

Then - when it's finally clear they aren't getting what they wanted, it's too late to mount a leadership challenge (possibly before a snap GE Hmm ????). Perceived wisdom being that it's electoral suicide to start a GE without the leader being confirmed.

Ultimately that might be Theresa Mays "backstop". It's the one - and only - thing she and she alone could do. Call a snap GE and resign as leader simultaneously.

(I may have just finished watching Season 7 of Homeland last night).

DGRossetti · 06/06/2018 16:33

I really think if a big leaver breaks ranks and starts a bun fight, it's all over for team Brexit.

That could cut two ways ... JRM might only be keeping still because he's been appraised that if he breaks ranks, it's over for any form of Brexit.

If nothing else, I look forward to silencing Brexiteers for years to come by pointing out that they got Brexit, and if they're not happy with it, maybe they should have worked out in advance what it was supposed to mean. Although in reality we'll probably be subjected to interminable badly lit and almost inaudible YouTube clips explaining how they were "betrayed by remainers" in increasingly ludicrous scenarios. Eventually the internet will break as the Kennedy conspiranauts loop around, and we are told that Brexit was thwarted by an FBI (or is it CIA ?) plot that started on the Grassy Knoll, when BoJos father lived in the US.

Even as I type, Dan Brown has ordered another hard drive.

DarlingNikita · 06/06/2018 16:35

Johnson has way too much personal ambition to hitch his wagon to what will be seen as a sell out.

hes probably the only leaver with the chutzpah to pull that off and the attraction of saving his skin and going down in history as saving the country from disaster would play to his ego

These are fascinating perspectives that I hadn't really thought about before.

I have been assuming that Johnson's bolt was shot, but if we instead assume that his ambition still burns, things start to look a lot more interesting.

I completely agree about the chutzpah.

DGRossetti · 06/06/2018 16:42

I have been assuming that Johnson's bolt was shot, but if we instead assume that his ambition still burns,

Along with Goves, this is a given. Although he'd probably consider it his birthright.

54321go · 06/06/2018 16:43

Sorry, a little morsel more on education.
My primary school teacher did, what I feel all 'earlyish' year teachers should do which was to find something in each child to 'wind up their clockwork'. Yes the 'basics' but to explore each child's interest through presenting them with a wide range of topics and see which ones 'stick' but with no penalisation for not 'learning'.
Having had my interest 'fuelled' I largely ignored secondary education but have been almost obsessive at my 'chosen' activity ever since (almost 50 years). It's the old 'give someone a fish and they can eat today, teach them to fish and it will last a lifetime thing.
Anything new on the Brexit traincrash?

DGRossetti · 06/06/2018 16:46

Anything new on the Brexit traincrash?

There's a replacement bus service.

RedToothBrush · 06/06/2018 16:48

David Allen Green @davidallengreen
Who would be the best writer or artist to depict Brexit?

M. C. Escher? Hieronymus Bosch? Dali? Lovecraft? Kafka? Angela Carter? Douglas Adams? Edward Lear?

Suggestions please as replies

Laura Kuennsberg @bbclaurak
Govt to publish backstop paper tomorrow morning- before Brexit committee
It is absolutely boiling in RUSI library where Davis about to speak, where May launched her leadership campaign
One of those days in SW1 where it feels like everything could suddenly and v quickly get v v messy + dramatic, or by this time tmrw the fever will have passed and we’ll wonder what the fuss was about

Davis says ‘uk has avoided tit for tat briefings’ from the negotiations - a cynic might say they have been busy enough briefing against each other
Davis then says it will ‘not be membership light’ - as literally across the road May meeting rebel remainers trying to find compromise to avoid defeat next week
Davis confirms he is seeing Barnier next week - hear its Monday
Davis accuses the Commission of ‘shooting itself in the foot just to prove the gun works’
David Davis says backstop proposal is still subject to discussions by Cabinet committee - that is NOT a number ten position - they believe it can be published before cttee meets

Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes
David Davis is doing his public event at Rusi: where Theresa May launched her leadership campaign just as Michael Gove was stabbing Boris Johnson in the front.

A perfect backdrop

David Davis is furious at the government's handling of Brexit...

…What's his job remit again?

Can anyone remind me?

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54321go · 06/06/2018 16:49

Would that be Arriva (Dutch I believe?)