Westministenders: Brexmeggadon Redux.

[RedToothBrush]

The last thread started about how the Withdrawal Bill was in tatters with The Rebel Forces feeling confident of staying in the Customs Union and there seemed to be a growing backlash towards the hostile environment and the need to reduce immigration.

This thread starts with the revelation this week that Farage has claimed that he never said the UK would be better off financially under Brexit, just that we would be self-governing and the Brexmeggadon Planning Revelation.

The Sunday Times has published a story about No Deal Brexit as senior civil servants have drawn up scenarios for David Davis. If you remember the minister responsible for No Deal is actually Steve Baker. That’s ERG founder Steve Baker. And if you remember he is facing queries from Brexiteers about whether he is truly committed to Brexit on the basis of his recent actions and comments.

There were reported that his plans for No Deal were stalling and proving impossible.

And today we have the Brexmeggadon ‘Project Fear’ article with three levels of jeopardy: Mild, Severe and ‘Oh my fucking God’.

Suddenly all our talk of stockpiling on Westministenders are starting to look rather prudent and enlightened. Ian Dunt’s book is looking like a Brexit Manual. David Allen Green is just standing there going ‘Well’. And George Osbourne is maniacally laughing his head off somewhere.

In the Level 2 Disaster Planning we are looking at Dover collapsing on Day One, food would run out within days and hospitals would run out of medicine within weeks. Petrol would run out within week two too.

As I’ve point out before in the worst case, the government has insufficient police and army to manage a worse case scenario.
Of course this is so explosive, its only been shared with a handful of ministers and are ‘locked in a safe’ and The Sunday Times don’t tell you what is in the ‘Bremeggadon’ scenario.

Or you could just read social media for the ‘scaremongering’.

We now have political attempts to FOI or force the publication of these reports to look forward too. The irony being that in this case the government will have a legitimate case that it would be against national security to release them. Of course they can’t actually admit that either!

Naturally Cabinet ministers and DeXeu has dismissed the article as not true. What else could they do?

Only for a ‘government source’ to claim that the denial was ‘untrue’ to Sam Coates of The Times.

Matthew Holehouse pointed out that the government can’t say for certain what impact no deal will have on medicine supply chains, because review on this isn’t due to finish its “initial” work until “late spring 2018”. Of course we are now in Summer 2018 and its still not been completed. Which obviously bodes well.

And there is talk of Chilcot style inquiries into Brexit sometime in the future. Westministenders is once again way ahead on that score…

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Meanwhile over in the Labour corner, growing pressure has been mounting on Corbyn. This week has seen the launch of a Corbyn supporting left wing pressure group, comprised of grassroots and trade unions to stop him supporting the harakiri of Tory Brexiteers.

We wait with tepid enthusiasm and sceptical levels of optimism for Corbyn’s climb down. St Jeremy knows what he wants...

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What does all this talk all mean? I think its difficult to read as much different to the media catching up with what the sane – who have a modicum of understanding of what trade deals, the custom union and the single market actually are - have been saying for sometime. Reality can’t be spun forever. At some point, you have to start preparing the public for the coming shit storm or the inevitable u-turn. This seems likely to be the move to kill off No Deal once and for all.

In terms of a ‘possible civil war’ under Brexmeggadon, its noticeable key Brexiteers are backing away from the cake. That doesn’t smack of civil unrest, that smacks of cowardice and a lack of Brexiteer leadership as no one is truly prepared to nail themselves to the mast as the ship starts to sink.

I also don’t think people will blame other people in the event of no food and no medicine and no medicine. I think people will be fairly unified in blaming those in charge who caused ‘No Deal’.
Oh and The American Trade Wars have began.

Ronald Regan ‘We should beware of the demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends—weakening our economy, our national security, and the entire free world—all while cynically waving the American flag.’

Hmmm. Sounds a lot like Brexit doesn't it?

Turnips anyone?
Planting season is late June to early July.

Here's a story no one has thought through ....

www.theregister.co.uk/2018/06/06/city_watchdog_slams_tsb_for_painting_optimistic_view_of_it_meltdown/

Notice how the UK lacked enough expertise to sort this shitstorm out. Then reflect on the serious impact it had.

Now multiply across any other areas relying on complex IT systems (that would be all of them, by the way. Every area).

Now work out how many "global specialists" the UK would need to ship in - double quick - to avert meltdown.

Let's imagine a Brexiteers take on it, shall we. It's very easy - fuck all. I'm sure we've all become very good at imagining fuck all when expecting anything from a Brexiteer.

Missed this from yesterday:

Henry Zeffman @hzeffman
EXCLUSIVE: Labour about to announce major shift towards soft Brexit. Corbyn will table "internal market" amendment to the withdrawal bill, customs bill and trade bill

Henry Newman @HenryNewman
Labour will know perfectly well this amendment promising full access to internal market with no impediments to trade would require a) free movement b) huge level playing field commitments c) full spectrum rule taking. But it's opposition politics so you can promise unicorns.

David Allen Green @davidallengreen
This is very interesting, perhaps more than its proposers realise.

"Single market" is not mentioned in EU treaties. The term used in the treaties is "internal market".

So this is four freedoms plus common regulatory policies, plus state aid, competition law, etc.

Intended?

By using the actual legally correct term "internal market" - defined in the traties - Labour are (deliberately or not) making what they are content to accept clear.

This is Article 26 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. This defines "internal market" as requiring the four freedoms (including movement).

Not having had the pleasure of growing up anywhere else, I'd be grateful if some posters who have could comment on my suspicion that the UK (well Englands maybe) education about it's own constitution and civic life is uniquely pisspoor when compared to elsewhere ?

I couldn't say compared to elsewhere. But I did used to be a civil servant - a Faststreamer. At the time it was bloody hard graduate scheme to get onto, high requirements, lots of tests, all that malarkey. And yet, all of us had to do a compulsory course called 'Parliament, Government and the Civil Service', which was a week or so long primer on how legislation is made, the constitution, how the institutions work together and so on. It was fascinating and it was genuinely useful, but at the same time, some of the information given was actually, with hindsight, pretty basic - stuff that you'd want everyone to know, really. I don't know if it's different now, but it does concern me that so many people, IME, just don't know how to interact with the government, or have their say, or even basic information such as whether the UK has a constitution.

I did also study in Italy for a year and did a very interesting course about the EU, which again covered lots of new ground for me - how the EU formed, for example. I don't know if it was also new to the Italian students, mind you.

EU Withdrawal bill timetabled to return to the lords on 18th June.

BigChocFrenzy - to be fair, the Scottish subset is (iirc) 1025. It's the drawing conclusions from the subsets of that that I am a bit about.

I don't know if it was also new to the Italian students, mind you.

Countries that have had their democracy taken away from them tend to be quite keen that it's part of the syllabus. Or so my Italian cousins say.

Of course, the UK has never lost it's democracy, so generally it's taken for granted. It's rather ironic that a lack of knowledge of the UKs constitution could be exploited by Brexiteers bewailing the loss of sovereignty.

There's also the pathological English distrust of anyone who "knows" stuff too. Such as people asserting their rights (I know your sort ... stirring up trouble), and people insisting on what is rightfully theirs (bloody scroungers).

No single country is any more or less stupid than any other country. But it's a source of endless fascination what different countries are collectively ignorant about. Such as the history of Ireland, for example. Brexiteers have no qualms about parading (do you see what I did there ) their ignorance, whilst beating their "patriot" drum.

EU Withdrawal bill timetabled to return to the lords on 18th June.

And if they don't back it ?

Hi
Trying to wean myself off MN but the Brexit threads are just too good!
My observation would be that Britain will not starve, Captain America will come to the rescue with the 'special relationship' which since Mr Trump is a businessman will mean that costs will go up significantly and you WILL enjoy chlorinated chicken, and anything else on offer. Maybe a 'dumping' or testing ground for medications unlicensed in the USA?
The UK was paying the 'bill' for WW2 for the 'help' from the USA for 50 years.
International business is so big and far reaching that some countries are effectively 'governed' in some respects by 'foreign' companies.
Other members of the EU have 'issues' with the EU (as a regulatory body) but it is only sensible to contemplate change from within (while being a member). If you talk about a significant recent war in Spain for example, it seems their perception largely misses out Mr Hiltler's activities and they concentrate on the Spanish civil, war in the few years earlier.

54321 thanks for the image of trump in tight blue spandex 🤮

re UK not having expertise - ibm's consultancy services are 'ibm global'

i'm not ibm but this is my field -
ibm wound down its uk team (at hursley) who specialised in the middleware concerned a few years ago. The team comprised many of the top guys in the world. a large number of these set up independent consultancies, this specific toolset is quite lucrative, i'm aware of a couple who chose to move to warmer climes and operate from there.

so if ibm were asked then they would have had to drag people in from other geographies or subcontract to their ex staff - who may well have been occupied on other projects.

its not even vaguely unusual to pull resources from across the world in this and other IT fields. i've been part of several projects with more than a dozen nationalities involved.

the brexit IT issue wont be needing to ship people in, it will be their availability and hence cost - i forsee making a shedload in what will be guaranteed project failures - govt is incapable of writing contracts that transfer risk - and if they were, no-one competent would be daft enough to sign them. you cant do this scale of IT change in the timescales envisaged.

DGR’s point about civic and political education in the U.K. being uniquely pisspoor is spot on.
When timetabled to teach PSHE Citizenship to Y10 - which I enjoyed doing, unlike most of my colleagues - I used to start by asking them the full name of the country (ie nation) they lived in. I never once got a correct answer. (I gave them a test at the end and the question was repeated. Most could remember it by then.)

If you talk about a significant recent war in Spain for example, it seems their perception largely misses out Mr Hiltler's activities and they concentrate on the Spanish civil, war in the few years earlier.

It's not a popular view, but by and large, the UK didn't have such a bad WW2. We were never invaded or occupied[1]. Our political system wasn't exploded to pieces. We never suffered mass migrations driven by the Nazis or Red Army or Allies or partisans (or all 4, depending on where and when you lived). Rural England didn't suffer village after village being blown up. Land being mined. Yes, the Blitz was terrible, but compared to some parts of France, Poland, Italy or Sicily ... and that's before you think about the horrors of Lidice, Oradour-sur-Glane, and in Italys' case Ardeatine (335 people massacred).

One of my Dads schoolfriends was killed when he ploughed into a landmine the US had deployed in Sicily (even to this day, there's an annual death toll of Belgian farmers from WW One ordinance). The UK simply never suffered like that.

Even visiting in the late 1970s, there were still-bombed blocks of flats (where people lived, by the way). Sicily really is pisspoor. And yet has taken wave after wave of desperate human beings fleeing Africa, with much less grumbling than the rather pampered English who seem to find "talking in a funny accent" reason enough to turn their backs on refugees.

[1]Yes, the Channel Islands were occupied. But it's best to try not to bring that up, as the history of that occupation seemed to show that the British were no different to any of the other nationalities that suffered the Nazi yoke. There were still collaborators.

ibm wound down its uk team (at hursley)

(waves)

many a fun day spent there in my last job. Mainly pissing off the product teams by suggesting very useful features that their offerings didn't have.

I like their wall of fame ...

Julian O'Neill @julianoneill
Is this pretty remarkable? 506 days after @niexecutive collapse, Head of Civil Service continues to be accountable to only FM and dFM.

Sam McBride @SJAMcBride
Kafkaesque. The Government say the man running Northern Ireland is accountable to two ministers, one of whom is dead and the other hasn't been in office for a year and a half.

Julian O'Neill @julianoneill
And let's not forget he is interim HoCS as only a FM and dFM can appoint

And this generally on NI politics.
inews.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/clown-bad-blood-and-mandarins-indiscretion-high-level-private-dup-text-messages-revealed/
Clown, bad blood and mandarin’s ‘indiscretion’: High level private DUP text messages revealed

No I will NEVER get NI politics.

I think part of the problem with teaching Citizenship in schools is that nothing much of the British system is written down in simple terms, so it is quite a difficult curriculum to devise (trying to define British values for example). Having had to get to grips with the rights and duties of French citizens fairly recently, it is clear that there are set things to learn such as the meaning in practice of liberté, fraternité, égalité, laicité etc.
I also think people forget what they have learnt. I did a Mod Brit Gov module at university, but I can't say I remember much of the bits that I haven't used since. Similarly my French adult learners tended to rely on the retired primary school teachers when I asked them to teach me about the role of different parts of government in France. It is a bit use it or lose it imo.

High level private DUP text messages revealed

On my FB fee, I saw a quote from Sammy Wilson of the DUP:

Catholics are sub human
Gays are perverts

I think part of the problem with teaching Citizenship in schools is that nothing much of the British system is written down in simple terms, so it is quite a difficult curriculum to devise

You're being very uncynical ...

The main problem is simply there's no will for it. You really don't need to go any further.

It's like "why do we have homelessness ?". Quite bluntly, because we're OK with it. Not you and I, perhaps. But enough people are that it's allowed to continue, if not get worse.

In a few weeks time, after the next US high school massacre (I've put £10 on there being at least 8 dead) there will be a massive media wailing about "how can this happen ?". The simple reason is that it happens because collectively people aren't so bothered about it to actually do something.

There's no Heaven on Earth, sadly.

I believe there are services at some of the war graves in France today.
There is plenty of unrest in Europe but it is not specifically the EU causing it and certainly not to the degree of throwing the toys out of the pram (loose reference to being Mumsnet).
BBC report saying that the 'foreign' workers necessary to pick fruit/veg don't want to come. The logical outcome is that the fruit will rot and you have to buy it is from 'abroad' (expensive) or pay UK residents properly to get them to do it (expensive). What 'restrictions' will the UK Border Force weaken on to get 'cheap' labour into the UK?

I believe there are services at some of the war graves in France today.

Their tending of UK and Commonwealth graves is humbling ...

BBC report saying that the 'foreign' workers necessary to pick fruit/veg don't want to come.

So a success for the Brexiteers then. Why isn't Farage all over the news with this, then ?

Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes
Meanwhile elsewhere in Theresa May’s bad 24 hours..

Last night talks broke down between Tory remain rebels and Julian Smith, Tory chief whip. After days of delicate negotiation a row ensued & Smith concluded that he would NOT concede on the (meaningless) Lords customs amendment

This came hours after the ERG told Smith to hold firm on the Lords Customs Amendment (even tho its meaningless)

Talks have resumed today, I’m told. But not it seems on the meaningless customs amendment.

Just sent minutes from last EUXT meeting on the backstop suggesting is not agreed w/o further discussion

‘PM said that the final decision on whether to proceed with the proposed alternative backstop would only come once the committee also knew what the proposed end state was.’

Leak from the gvt SN minutes suggesting one reason some cabinet ministers feel aggrieved TM proceeding

‘PM said that the final decision on whether to proceed with the proposed alternative backstop would only come once the committee also knew what the proposed end state was.’

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
Tory remain rebels seeing PM this afternoon, discussions of various compromises over the withdrawal bill next week - rebels not wearing any of it so far

Sources indicate backstop paper which sets out what is the TCA (thank heavens it's that not CRAP, it is the Temporary Customs Arrangement) will still be published tomorrow

No 10 sources adamant all the document is what ministers already agreed in black and white - that's not the view of everyone in govt - feels like next 24 hours could be v important in terms of whether eurosceptic ministers fall in behind the proposal or not

Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes
I’m told by one Tory source the ERG handling plan is the moment it’s published Jacob Rees Mogg will brief the Telegraph why it’s a deal breaker then “something that will explode it” will be handed to the Sunday Times (when TM overseas)

I’m only relaying what I’m told...

Things I’m also told

1. DD won’t resign
2. Huge pressure to publish before Friday
3. No desire in No10 to change

Which means DD concedes???

Kevin Schofield @PolhomeEditor
Boy Who Cried Wolf update.

and

I don't think it is true to say there is no will for it DG. My lack of cynicism probably comes from years as a teacher and inspector seeing curriculum groups, LAs and schools doing their best to implement PSE, PSHE, PSHE and Citizenship etc etc.. There have been some good attempts along the way, but the problem in English schools is that as soon as you have got something in place someone else comes along and changes it.
Partly I think this is because people are always trying to add to the curriculum without ever telling schools what they can leave out.
About that I am cynical.

Carole Cadwalladr @carolecadwalla
BREAkING: new Guardian exclusive. Cambridge Analytica director 'met Assange to discuss US election & channeled cryptocurrency to Wikileaks’

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/jun/06/cambridge-analytica-brittany-kaiser-julian-assange-wikileaks?CMP=share_btn_tw
Cambridge Analytica director 'met Assange to discuss US election'
Brittany Kaiser also claims to have channelled payments and donations to WikiLeaks

Weeeehhhhwwwwaaahhh wwwwweeeeehhhhwaaaaahhhhhh

Klaxon goes off.

But visitor logs from the Ecuador embassy obtained by the Guardian and Focus Ecuador appear to show that Brittany Kaiser, a senior executive at Cambridge Analytica until earlier this year, visited Assange on 17 February 2017. Information passed to the DCMS committee in the UK and the Senate judiciary committee in the US states that the meeting was “a retrospective to discuss the US election”.

Gosh, I bet those visitor logs make for interesting reading... I wonder who else visited the embassy.

Nix is currently back giving evidence to the DCMS as I type:
www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/5cf03dfb-aac9-46b5-95f8-6c5728249059