Westministenders: Brexmeggadon Redux.

[RedToothBrush]

The last thread started about how the Withdrawal Bill was in tatters with The Rebel Forces feeling confident of staying in the Customs Union and there seemed to be a growing backlash towards the hostile environment and the need to reduce immigration.

This thread starts with the revelation this week that Farage has claimed that he never said the UK would be better off financially under Brexit, just that we would be self-governing and the Brexmeggadon Planning Revelation.

The Sunday Times has published a story about No Deal Brexit as senior civil servants have drawn up scenarios for David Davis. If you remember the minister responsible for No Deal is actually Steve Baker. That’s ERG founder Steve Baker. And if you remember he is facing queries from Brexiteers about whether he is truly committed to Brexit on the basis of his recent actions and comments.

There were reported that his plans for No Deal were stalling and proving impossible.

And today we have the Brexmeggadon ‘Project Fear’ article with three levels of jeopardy: Mild, Severe and ‘Oh my fucking God’.

Suddenly all our talk of stockpiling on Westministenders are starting to look rather prudent and enlightened. Ian Dunt’s book is looking like a Brexit Manual. David Allen Green is just standing there going ‘Well’. And George Osbourne is maniacally laughing his head off somewhere.

In the Level 2 Disaster Planning we are looking at Dover collapsing on Day One, food would run out within days and hospitals would run out of medicine within weeks. Petrol would run out within week two too.

As I’ve point out before in the worst case, the government has insufficient police and army to manage a worse case scenario.
Of course this is so explosive, its only been shared with a handful of ministers and are ‘locked in a safe’ and The Sunday Times don’t tell you what is in the ‘Bremeggadon’ scenario.

Or you could just read social media for the ‘scaremongering’.

We now have political attempts to FOI or force the publication of these reports to look forward too. The irony being that in this case the government will have a legitimate case that it would be against national security to release them. Of course they can’t actually admit that either!

Naturally Cabinet ministers and DeXeu has dismissed the article as not true. What else could they do?

Only for a ‘government source’ to claim that the denial was ‘untrue’ to Sam Coates of The Times.

Matthew Holehouse pointed out that the government can’t say for certain what impact no deal will have on medicine supply chains, because review on this isn’t due to finish its “initial” work until “late spring 2018”. Of course we are now in Summer 2018 and its still not been completed. Which obviously bodes well.

And there is talk of Chilcot style inquiries into Brexit sometime in the future. Westministenders is once again way ahead on that score…

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Meanwhile over in the Labour corner, growing pressure has been mounting on Corbyn. This week has seen the launch of a Corbyn supporting left wing pressure group, comprised of grassroots and trade unions to stop him supporting the harakiri of Tory Brexiteers.

We wait with tepid enthusiasm and sceptical levels of optimism for Corbyn’s climb down. St Jeremy knows what he wants...

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What does all this talk all mean? I think its difficult to read as much different to the media catching up with what the sane – who have a modicum of understanding of what trade deals, the custom union and the single market actually are - have been saying for sometime. Reality can’t be spun forever. At some point, you have to start preparing the public for the coming shit storm or the inevitable u-turn. This seems likely to be the move to kill off No Deal once and for all.

In terms of a ‘possible civil war’ under Brexmeggadon, its noticeable key Brexiteers are backing away from the cake. That doesn’t smack of civil unrest, that smacks of cowardice and a lack of Brexiteer leadership as no one is truly prepared to nail themselves to the mast as the ship starts to sink.

I also don’t think people will blame other people in the event of no food and no medicine and no medicine. I think people will be fairly unified in blaming those in charge who caused ‘No Deal’.
Oh and The American Trade Wars have began.

Ronald Regan ‘We should beware of the demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends—weakening our economy, our national security, and the entire free world—all while cynically waving the American flag.’

Hmmm. Sounds a lot like Brexit doesn't it?

Turnips anyone?
Planting season is late June to early July.

Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes
Just over a week ago, the HMRC bosses told MPs there were 39 projects out in hold or cancelled because of Brexit but wouldn’t say which

Today we reveal the government’s full list

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/7bbb110a-690a-11e8-9c53-0e2cb45ebb16
Billions lost in tax as Brexit puts dozens of critical projects on ice

Billions lost in tax as Brexit puts dozens of critical projects on ice

I do think these threads are becoming a bit of an echo chamber and there are touches of over hysteria which don’t help the cause for remaining.

I think leaving the EU in the way May and her Brexiteers are pushing for is appalling and self destructive. I generally agree with the Flexit proposal suggested by Richard North. I think we should have stopped at the common market but of course we’re way too entrenched now in EU processes and laws.

I think the Armageddon situation won’t happen as any British government that causes such harm would be overturned in a flash. And they know it. This is all brinkmanship. Eventually they will have to face the consequences of their poor judgement and back down to EEA/EFTA. With or without May at the helm. It’s a terrible shame that labour have persisted with Corbyn who has been unelectable despite the easiest win labour should ever have had. I also think the media have been negligent in not holding all the useless politicians to proper account and a general lack of uncritical reporting. I think because of this it will have to feel much worse before the public realise they were promised the undeliverable and that this whole thing is damaging and crap.

I voted remain as couldn’t see any way to extract ourselves which wouldn’t cause economic damage. But I wanted to leave.

There needs to be more understanding and empathy from centrists about why so many people voted leave. If this is ignored it will simmer and get worse. And eventually awful extremist politics will take over, as we see starting to happen. Saying that it’s just because people were stupid and gullible is unfair and causes more anger. People without much or who relied on an underfunded NHS felt threatened by immigration from poor EU countries, whether real or perceived. The EU is too pig headed an organisation to listen to people and make changes to its inflexible policies so we have the rise of extremist politics here, in Italy, Spain and so on.

I appreciate we have had government after government that hasn’t used the measures within its powers to limit immigration or upskill the U.K. workforce or grow its way out of austerity, etc etc. I do also think the EU has made a huge mistake in allowing a main contributer to leave and ignore uprising in other original member countries- rather than review its policies and consider reform.

Why should the EU reform policies on immigration when they already have policies that would have allowed the UK to limit immigration/deport those that weren't working?

Given that we don't (and never have) cede sovereignty, it is up to the UK to implement the laws that would allow it to do so. The fact that we didn't was the UK Government's fault.

The EU could reform its policies and the UK could still choose not to implement them assuming it were still in the EU ; as long as they are looser than the EU's policies (as they are at the moment) and we are out of Schengen.

And as as been explained as nauseum, being in the Common Market wouldn't solve the border problem in NI; for that you need to be in both the SM and the Common Market. Frictionless borders require full alignment not just of tariffs but NTBs.

i dont see the eu as having made any mistake here. norwegian pm on today explained very clearly the positive side of migrants - uk has never had that viewpoint.

am feeling that our best hope of stopping at the brink is probably boris.
given he was in two minds pre the referendum then hes possibly most likely to be swayed by evidence of looming chaos, whatever bluster he marshalls.
so I'd expect him to surface at some point, saying its clear that his vision simply cant be executed in the time available and he'll propose a new government that would pull the a50 and instigate a public inquiry to define what 'we' want.
hes probably the only leaver with the chutzpah to pull that off and the attraction of saving his skin and going down in history as saving the country from disaster would play to his ego

I do think these threads are becoming a bit of an echo chamber

These threads have always been an echo chamber.

Rightly or wrongly.

The EU could reform its policies and the UK could still choose not to implement them

Elsewhere, there's a thread where a poster was upset that their DSDs mum had managed to book a holiday over the date of the posters wedding to DSDs father.

The almost unanimous suggestion was that if the poster did change the date of her wedding then DSDs mum would find something else to be busy with on that date.

The UK is that stepmum. Even if the EU had made some concessions, they know it wouldn't have been enough for the UK.

It may come as a shock to some, but politically the UKs not very popular in Europe. Or indeed the world. But you won't read it in English.

The EU policies are what 28, soon to be 27, countries decide they are
What the Uk wanted didn't fit in with what most others wanted
That's just different preferences, noone's fault.

Leavers should stop blaming the EU for letting the UK leave
and accept that Brexit means Brexit !
The EU warned before the ref that out means out and still keeps saying the Uk must accept that leaving means losing the privileges of membership

Austerity policies and tax cuts for the rich were choices of the UK govt
The public keep wanting Scandinavian public services on a USA level of taxation - not possible - so the voters need to make choices
The public keep voting for policies which widen inequality, again a UK choice

The UK already had far more opt-outs than anyone else, which irritated many countries.
Without the UK, the EU can develop more in the direction it wants, without constantly being held back.

The EU is more popular in other members than ever since the referendum
However the sheer number of North African / Middle East refugees & migrants is a gift to the hard right

• many refugees had to flee because the UK with the US has created a chaotic hellhole of slaughter in their countries.

The EU didn't create those refugees, but under UN law has to rescue them and accept them when they land.

The East European countries like Poland & Hungary were only let into the EU so early because the UK - on behalf of the US - pushed so hard for this, partly to shaft Russia.
However, after decades under a Communist dictatorship, their economic and political systems were nowhere near ready.
The USSR used xenophobia and anti-Semitism to keep its subject peoples under control and the effects have lingered long in its former empire.

Countries like Greece & Portugal also have structural economic problems arising from decades of fascist dictatorship.
They and Italy have a chronic history of tax evasion by much of the population
Italy also has a decades long problem with the Mafia

The internal problems of these Southern & Eastern countries are not the fault of the EU, but self-inflicted and would be worse if they were not in the EU

• Greece refused to return to the lira, despite encouragement, because they want the hard Euro, not a currency they have to carry in a wheelbarrow to buy things.

The public keep wanting Scandinavian public services on a USA level of taxation

Maybe the cake-and-eat-it mentality is an English failing ?

FOM for EU citizens is just not an issue in other EU countries.
Only fear of NA / ME refugees & migrants - who don't have FOM - boost the far right in some countries,
which is much fuelled by significant alt-right resources form the USA and also Russian bots

These threads have always been an echo chamber

And a very informative, comforting one too.

And imo finally the echo is starting to be heard, and validated.

not a currency they have to carry in a wheelbarrow to buy things.

I suspect a lot of people would regard that as hyperbole because they are ignorant about the history they claim to be expert on.

(I liked the caption "when a wheelbarrow became a wallet")

Let me guess Brexiteers: fake news ?

Interesting analysis of the differences between "Scottish" nationalism and "English" nationalism from John Curtice, including attitudes towards Europe.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-44300916

Although I am somewhat dubious about the statistical reliability of further analysis of the subsets: when you are down to (eg percentages of the 299 SNP voters)

If we get an EEA /EFTA type deal, most people in the Uk should be ok;
there might be slower growth for a few years, maybe even a recession, but probably not as bad as 2008

Otherwise, even with CETA, the economy and trade will be hammered, not just with EU countries, but with the RoW.
A no-deal or disorderly Brexit would be quite horrific, with all the consequences of which North warns
Magnitudes worse than 2008 - noone under 90 will have memories of life like that.

Where I disagree with him & JDD is in the relative likelihood of these alternatives.
They imo are overly gloomy with 90% chance of a no-deal Brexit

I would put it at 50:50
There should be zero chance of crashing out, but we have seen the total irresponsibility, incompetence & ignorance of this govt
and the dreadful irresponsibility of the rightwing media, whipping up public anger at any opposition and demanding that Brexit is either with all the cake or a crash /"walk away"

FOM for EU citizens is just not an issue in other EU countries.

Maybe because of the asymmetry of the English tongue ? There are very few places in the EU - especially in the business world - where it's necessary to have any grasp of the local lingo at all. But reverse that, and even in a big city you need to have a decent grasp of English (certainly enough to put my efforts to shame).

Funnily enough, DW and I found ourselves in Wales at the weekend (one advantage to being in the West Midlands ) and because it was a beautiful sunny day, there were quite a few people in the streets, and it was intriguing how much Welsh was being spoken. Certain more than I remember 25 years ago, whatever that may or may not mean

There needs to be more understanding and empathy from centrists about why so many people voted leave.

I do agree with this - the trouble is that the debate is so polarised that people can't seem to hear the other side - it has become (well, really has always been) a shouting match. Anyone who expresses worry is dismissed as 'being worried about their champagne and fois gras' (as per a current thread) by one side, the other side starts yelling about people being too stupid to have voted on this, and thus we fail to make any progress at all. Again.

Personally, I think a huge part of the problem is how little people understand about how the country is governed and how legislation is made. People don't feel they can influence things, which leads to feelings of disillusionment and disenfranchisement, and wanting to give 'The Establishment' one in the eye. I had conversations in the run-up to the vote with intelligent, interested family members who felt like that because they just didn't have that information available and didn't know where to find it. We should be teaching this sort of thing at school, getting children and young people engaged from the start. Policy and legislation is something that should be done for and with people - not to us.

pretty The tiny Scottish cross-breaks are far too unreliable, much too small a sample size and v high standard deviation.
I'd only trust polls that are specifically on Scottish voters, i.e. poll size > 1000

However, looking at what prominent Scottish & English / UK say, there is a very clear difference.
The SNP are far more inclusive of immigrants, even the 1 in 4 of their population who are of the "auld enemy" / colonial power

NS right after the ref made a brilliant statement to reassure E27 expats there

Centrists should have worked harder to change UK govt policy - especially austerity - that hammered the less well off

After Brexit, the angry voters may kick the Tories in the teeth at the next GE
and vote for JC / his successor on steroids
because their lives won't be better with a recession, unless they gain comfort from shared misery

I'm not sure its something to lay firmly at the feet of centrists either, as that again polarises debate into centrists and fringes. There are plenty from the wide range of the spectrum who should have done more to change policy. But then it comes back to who it benefits to change these things. The old 'enemy' of the EU was exceptionally useful politically for years on end.

This is a great thread - informative and in a way supportive for those of us who feel isolated in the midst of Brexiters or head-in-the-sanders.
But it isn't the kind of thread that will draw in a lot of people I don't think.
It's good that the odd thread on Brexit is getting into AIBU - see the current one on stockpiling. Maybe we could do with a few more of those as the situation deteriorates - with titles which make it easier for people to see them and to understand that really serious stuff is happening.

Is anyone watching PMQs at the moment? Just opened twitter to see lots of stuff re Corbyn pushing on Brexit for a change, and actually going for it.

the current one on stockpiling

I'm a bit like that somebody on that thread has posted of their fears for their child's essential medication, and a Leaver has basically gone Oh dear but if medication doesn't get through then that, too, is the fault of the EU - I mean, WTF messed up thinking and dodging of responsibility is that? What happened to Take Back Control?

I didn't bother posting it on that thread, but if the medication shortages should happen, my dbro would be another affected. He takes a carefully calibrated cocktail of drugs to maintain his health - it has taken years to get to a point of equilibrium, and without them he is at risk of dying a quite horrible death.

I didn't post it because someone dismissing that as collateral damage worth taking for blue passports or calling me hysterical for worrying might have caused my head to explode.

but if the medication shortages should happen,

Not "should" about it. Try and get "Teoptic", which used to be made by Thea Pharmaceutical (in the UK). No longer manufactured by them, as the licensing (in USD) made it unviable.

As of writing, no alternative supply has been sourced, so alternatives (with all the clinical implications) are having to be prescribed.

After Brexit, the angry voters may kick the Tories in the teeth at the next GE and vote for JC / his successor on steroids

I think the most interesting thing about this time we live in, is that isn't a narrative a lot of people are seeing. As with the suggestion that a fresh referendum would simply deliver the same result (to all practical intents and purposes a 50/50 split) so a GE would just return a parliament with no majority party.

History and it's interpretation - especially as it's being written - can be wrong. But it can also be right. It's hard not to see that situation of a paralysed parliament as the fault of the political classes to refuse to engage in compromise. Writ large, it's like the electorate are saying "well if you won't ing work together, we'll make you work together".

The 2010 election was not an aberration - it was an early warning. And fair play to the LibDems for being grownup about it.

I've avoided commenting on the Italy threads - mainly because having voted in those elections I wasn't quite ready to be told by a load of cretinous morons what the "real deal in Italy" was. But one thing that goes without comment in Italy is the fact that compromise is an integral part of their system. It doesn't stop yah-boo politics (nothing would). But there n acceptance that doing a deal with another party isn't the sky falling in.

Not having had the pleasure of growing up anywhere else, I'd be grateful if some posters who have could comment on my suspicion that the UK (well Englands maybe) education about it's own constitution and civic life is uniquely pisspoor when compared to elsewhere ?