Westministenders: Stalling for Time

[RedToothBrush]

After 14 defeats, the Withdrawal Bill exited the Lords. In much worse condition than anyone dared to predicted.

Now we have those who were viciously against Lords reform, all of a sudden shouting about how much we desperately need it. Well fancy that. Tradition isn't so attractive if you aren't getting your own way.

Daniel Hannan has suddenly admitted that Brexit is not 'going to plan' (there was one?) and Johnson is still his weekly resignation threat.

It now throws things back into Corbyn's court. The Tory Rebel Forces think that they have the numbers to stay in the Single Market, but are blocked by Corbyn's opposition to it.

The decision on the customs union has effectively been pushed back to the Autumn by May, but we have to make a decision about the Irish border by June or trade talks won't go ahead as planned.

The trouble is that the Cabinet can not decide on which option they want to take, but neither is particularly viable anyway. Max Fac means a border in the Irish Sea which the DUP won't like and the Customs Partnership isn't acceptable to the Empire Tories. In any case it seems unlikely that either option could get through the Commons in their current form due to the growing number of Tory Rebel Forces.

May also has a problem with the grass roots. It is more or less impossible for her to deliver the Brexit they desire whatever she tries.

The growing backlash about the hostile environment also undermines the point of Brexit in reducing immigration. Its is growing apparent, WHY we need immigration and that the people who are being targeted for deportation are simply the easiest to pick off and not the ones that people see as 'a problem'. Indeed you have to wonder about how many immigrants ARE a problem. The idea to control immigration after Brexit was not through the border but through the hostile environment, yet this seems now to be something that will be impossible to continue with politically.

Leave.EU have now been referred to the police for breaking Electoral Law. It also turns out that they found numerous ways to beat the spending limit legally. The female data controller has also been found to have data protection law. Meanwhile Banks and Wigmore as well as Nix (CA and SCL), Cummings (Vote Leave) and Silvester (AIQ) have all been summoned to appear because the Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee. Zuckerberg also does not appear to have completed his answers to the committee as Facebook have had their homework deadline extended to Monday (and has been asked to appear by the 24th May whilst he is in Europe).

Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee Dates
Electoral Commission - Tuesday 15th May
Silvester - Wednesday 16th May
Cummings / Nix - Summoned to appear Tuesday 22nd May
Banks / Wigmore - Tuesday 16th June

Also in parliament in next weeks is and interesting looking ten minute rule bill named 'Representation of the People (Gibraltar)' - Tuesday 15th May

Anyway, we are all set for the predictable 'who blinks first' brinkmanship with the UK aware that if the EU don't blink we go over the cliff and parliament aware that if May delays long enough she bypasses parliamentary democracy or put it in a position with a gun to its head.

Who is looking forward to this year's 'row of the summer'?
It could be a long, hot summer.

Anyway, I want France to win Eurovision and the UK to get some points and not come last. Its not going to happen is it?

Irish Times: Tory Brexit strategy increasingly defined by disarray

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/tory-brexit-strategy-increasingly-defined-by-disarray-1.3497919

Analysis: Internal debate over customs bears little relation to existing negotiations with EU
…
An elegant solution might be to extend the proposed backstop, which would allow Northern Ireland to remain in the customs union and parts of the single market after Brexit, to the whole of the United Kingdom.

Brussels will resist such a move, however, on the basis that Northern Ireland is only being allowed to cherry-pick the single market because of its special circumstances.

< this is why I think that it is the Uk that is trying to weaponise the NI border, in order to be allowed a special deal for all of the UK, i.e. some form of cake >

Feels like bluster. The powers of Parliament to enforce and hold people accountable feels very weak.

The US DOJ looks like it's working on the other hand. Why is the UK Parliament weak ? Lack of a codified constitution?

The laws on contempt were reviewed in 2013. They decided nothing needed to be done.

I would suggest that in order to be in contempt of court, there is probably other stuff that can be thrown at someone, which might have more teeth.

Cummings has never had respect for parliament. He thinks he's above it. It's not a shock he's not responded.

If he knew there were consequences he might have reacted differently. He's testing and might lose. Or win. Nothing to be gained by attending if he can avoid it.

Accuracy is for snake-oil pussies': Vote Leave's campaign director defies MPs
The two Tory pro-Brexit MPs, Jacob Rees-Moog and Steve Baker, looked on embarrassed. One appearance by Cummings would have done more for the Remain cause than any number of speeches from David Cameron. They did their best to tee their man up with a few easy questions, much like members of a parole board trying to find some good in a prisoner who has managed for the first time to get through an entire group therapy session without assaulting anyone, but Cummings was much too far gone
www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/20/accuracy-is-for-snake-oil-pussies-vote-leaves-campaign-director-defies-mps

I see another period of intense wide reading on his Fathers farm in the future for young Dom

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/8b740428-594f-11e8-9ed6-2a2b8ba208a7]]

Oh, look, the Today programme loses 65,000 listeners as audience tunes out. I wonder why?

Faisal Islam @ faisalislam
Fascinating piece from Gary suggesting that a senior Irish Government official has hosted talks with senior public figures from Northern Ireland on the shape of a united Ireland, since Brexit...
www.channel4.com/news/by/gary-gibbon/blogs/forty-shades-of-green-fifty-shades-of-orange
Forty Shades of Green; Fifty Shades of Orange

Ian Marshall was President of that unionist bastion the Ulster Farmers Union and farms near the border with the Republic in South Armagh. He said Brexit had been a catalyst for new thinking in parts of the unionist community. He wanted much more thought given to how a united Ireland might work to assuage anxieties across his own community but said he thought many unionists were “beginning to think the unthinkable.” I asked if he was one of them? “Yeah, I’m a realist, I’m a pragmatist.” Mr Marshall has just been elected to the Irish Senate as a voice from Northern Ireland.

www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/emilyashton/esther-mcvey-betting-machines
This Minister Who Protested Against A Gambling Crackdown Went To The Races As The Guest Of A Bookmaker
Exclusive: BuzzFeed News has learned that Esther McVey received hospitality from William Hill at the Cheltenham races in March.

Harry Cole @ mrharrycole
EXCLUSIVE: Bercow in fresh sexism storm as MPs claim he branded female Cabinet Minister a “stupid woman” in Commons rant:
www.thesun.co.uk/news/6313959/speaker-john-bercow-is-caught-calling-top-tory-andrea-leadsom-a-stupid-woman-in-the-commons/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Speaker John Bercow is caught calling top Tory Andrea Leadsom a ‘stupid woman’ in the Commons

In an extraordinary foul mouthed outburst, the House of Commons boss was also alleged to have called Andrea Leadsom “f**king useless”.

In fairness, what would you call Leadsom? 'Intelligent' and 'gifted' are not what spring to my mind.

Tony Connelly @ tconnellyRTE
BREAKING: Taoiseach Leo Varadkar says that the British Prime Minister Theresa May shd table a new proposal on the future customs relationship between the EU & UK within the next 2 wks, hints it cd see continued alignment btwn whole of UK and EU on customs into the future

the Taoiseach said the prime minister had given him some insights into what he called “new thinking” on the British side.

the Taoiseach said the prime minister had given him some insights into what he called “new thinking” on the British side.

“It would help solve some of the problems related to the border but not all of them. It would certainly help us continue to trade between Britain and Ireland much as we do now.”

Following a 45 minute meeting on the margins of the EU-Western Balkans Summit, Mr Varadkar warned repeatedly that keeping the UK aligned on customs was not the only thing required to avoid a hard border.

Theresa May’s new thinking, he said, was presented “verbally and conceptually” and as such Dublin could not respond until it was presented as a formal written proposal in the Brexit negotiations.

Taoiseach said he was “not discouraged”by the meeting.

“The PM gave me an insight into some new thinking the UK government as in relation to customs. Obviously we’ll see how that develops. We haven’t been able to get any detail on that yet,but certainly any move on customs that brings the U.K. closer to the EU is to be welcomed.

He said he made it clear to the prime minister that Ireland would insist on its red line of a legally operable backstop in the Withdrawal Agreement, whatever progress was made on customs.

Asked if the Theresa May could deliver on a new customs relationship given the depths of opposition by hardliners in her cabinet, the Taoiseach said he believed she could, although it involved the “internal politics of the UK.

He said: “The position of the UK government is what she tells me it is and the position of the UK government is what they present to us in writing”

"Theresa May’s new thinking, he said, was presented “verbally and conceptually”

< sigh > she gave him her typical speech with lots of "let me make it perfectly clear", waffle, waffle
… and bugger all concrete proposals or facts

The problem is that the EU require precise and legally binding text in the Withdrawal Agreement, defining exactly all responsibilities and actions of all parties.

They will not accept "let me make it perfectly clear" waffle or Daily Heil soundbites as a substitute.

They would be fools just to trust the UK to do "the right thing", for E27 expats, phytosanitary checks, NI or anything else,
considering the hostile environment for immigrants,
Fox bending the Uk over for trade deals with the US,
DD & May reneging on what they agreed in December …

Swedish it doesn't surprise me the Today programme is losing listeners. I wonder what all the reasons are...?

Because I don't read the Daily Mail, I didn't realise that John Humphrys writes freelance for it, or that he knows Dacre well.

www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/mandrake-tim-walker-column-1-5509208

Just to note that Esther McVey is best buds with Philip Davies, who’s also a fan of the the gambling industry.
www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-mp-philip-davies-betting-machines-gambling-companies-commons-gifts-lobbying-bookmakers-a8058706.html%3famp

Don't think you can win? When in doubt, cheat...

amp.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/18/pm-set-to-nominate-10-tory-peers-in-attempt-to-overcome-brexit-defeats?__twitter_impression=true
PM set to nominate 10 Tory peers in attempt to overcome Brexit defeats
Labour peer Lord Adonis criticises plan as desperate attempt by May to boost fragile position in upper chamber

RTB: do we think this matters?

1. might this backfire and get MPs and Peers to vote against the govt in protest

2. Do we really believe a deal is possible? SM and CU membership are both needed for NI (why leave then?). In addition Gibraltar is a lingering problem - it's possible Spain will exercise a veto.

So we are left with a binary outcome: Remain and Crash Out. 10 more Tory peers won't help get a lack of WA across the line.

New UK ministerial team to tackle post-Brexit border disruption

The inter-departmental group will tackle issues such as immigration, trade and transportation

The lack of representation of the Northern Ireland Office on the border ministerial group suggests its focus is the U.K.’s sea borders, rather than its land border with the Republic of Ireland

“These groups exist outside formal structures for inter-ministerial working,” Owen said. “There’s no secretariat provided by the Cabinet Office, there’s no publicly available information on what they do or who sits on them. behind the scenes, they appear to be pulling the strings on critical parts of Brexit

www.politico.eu/article/brexit-david-davis-michael-gove-sajid-javid-chris-grayling-border-uk-ministerial-team-to-tackle-post-brexit-border-disruption/

Nick Gutteridge @ nick_gutteridge
EU officials believe Brexiteers' favoured Max Fac border system is so 'virtual reality' it won't be a viable solution for the Irish border (or Dover) for decades. 'Perhaps in 2085, but not now or even in three to five years', one predicted.

t.co/PfIZ9IoDWw?amp=1
Brexit may not happen for another 65 YEARS as Britain ‘won’t be able to wrench itself free from Customs Union’
Brussels could keep us in transition until the Irish issue is resolved as they dub the Brexiteers' Max Fac plan a 'virtual reality'

PM set to nominate 10 Tory peers in attempt to overcome Brexit defeats

...and the proposed boundary changes and reduction of MPs would give the Conservatives a working majority of 20 seats.

This is not statesmanlike behaviour with integrity. This is not winning to implement your point of view using the merits on a fair and square basis.

And still the latest YouGov Westminster voting intention figures. ... Conservatives on 43% (unchanged from last week's poll). Labour on 38%.

One can only conclude that the electorate actually admire the shabby use of power for party political gain.

I am so concerned about the state of uk HE.

It seems to be being weaponised by the far right.

The HO set up a 'survey' on 'migrant students' with very dodgy methodology yesterday: accessible to anyone; questions retroactively edited live, and questions skewed. Following SM campaign, it has just been abandoned, but how could it have been allowed in the first place?

twitter.com/cliodiaspora/status/997165393574793216

lonely I don't know if the Tories have a majority to pass the new boundary commission proposals

Would the DUP support them on this ?

• I know the DUP would have lost seats on the previous boundary commission proposal

Probably any boundary change is worse for the DUP than the current seat layout, since the demographics are continually changing with increased numbers of Catholics

The boundary commission is independent, so gerrymandering - as in the US House of Reps - is not really possible, other than any effects due to cutting down the number of seats.
It is just that old boundaries have tended to favour Labour and disadvantage the Tories, because of demographic changes re city / rural.

True BigChoc but the point is that they want to try. The following exaples:

1.The bung to the DUP.
2.Wanting to create 10 more Tory members of the HoL...
3.Wanting to push through boundaries changes.

I think both these things reveal a very dirty side of politics which has now become the norm.If you are a true states-person and believe the veracity of what you are saying then the way to garner support from other MPs etc is to persuade them by debate and oration and ,if needed, compromise. Not using your position in government to try and increase your majority in either house by the back door.

The cynic in me is thinking that some sort of vague terrorist incident, with dark hints about people wishing us harm might be around the corner

DG - don't say that in case you encourage the idea. ( I've thought it too in my darkest moments!)

Sam Coates Times @ samcoatestimes
Happy to be proven wrong, but all my conversations with Commission and member states suggest that the backstop is not on offer to the whole UK, just Northern Ireland.

Nick Gutteridge @ nick_gutteridge
1/ This is correct. Reason why Brussels says the backstop cannot apply to the whole UK is because of the fear it would give Britain a back door into the Single Market without following the rules, especially Freedom of Movement. EU negotiators say it's a special deal just for NI.

2/ They admit it's allowing cherry-picking, but say the Irish circumstances are so extenuating they're prepared to tolerate it. When I asked an EU negotiator what backstop they would accept that applied to the whole UK they replied only one: Single Market and Customs Union.

3/ The Govt and DUP are unhappy about this because they think December's joint agreement specified the backstop would apply to the whole of the UK and that the EU has moved the goalposts. Brussels says no, it was in the section of the text about NI so clear what we meant.

4/ Truth is, of course, the joint agreement was vaguely worded on a number of issues including this so that both sides could present it as an acceptable outcome. But that was only ever going to be a temporary reprieve, and the time for fudging is starting to run out.

Sea Border with island of Ireland... Plus queues at Holyhead and Dover.

Whoopie!

Labour what is your position?

Theresa May struggles to rally support among EU leaders for new customs plan

because she STILL insists on leaving the Single Market.
No SM memberships ==> no frictionless trade

• except for special case of NI which is such a special casre

Also, the NI border has such a tiny % of total EU trade that the EU seem to be willing to make it a special case and let it maybe alone "emulate" the SM.

May is trying to leverage the special NI solution to apply to the whole UK.
Won't happen

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/17/theresa-may-tries-to-rally-support-for-customs-plan-from-eu-leaders

EU sources said the prime minister was firmly told by Tusk, during a meeting that she personally requested,
that Brussels and Dublin needed to see the concept on paper before they could give May any confidence about the June European council summit.
…
Varadkar had warned earlier at the summit in Sofia that,
without substantial progress on the question of the Irish border, “we need to seriously question whether we’re going to have a withdrawal agreement at all”.

The EU official said the meeting with Tusk had been about the UK’s “expectations in June”.
He said: “We had to say it was too early to tell.

All the news coming from London is very disorientating. 🤦🏻‍♀️
Tusk was clear that it is not only about what the commission might recommend.
“They have to get all 27 member states to agree, and that includes Ireland.
And Tusk is squarely behind Dublin.”