Westministenders: Stalling for Time

[RedToothBrush]

After 14 defeats, the Withdrawal Bill exited the Lords. In much worse condition than anyone dared to predicted.

Now we have those who were viciously against Lords reform, all of a sudden shouting about how much we desperately need it. Well fancy that. Tradition isn't so attractive if you aren't getting your own way.

Daniel Hannan has suddenly admitted that Brexit is not 'going to plan' (there was one?) and Johnson is still his weekly resignation threat.

It now throws things back into Corbyn's court. The Tory Rebel Forces think that they have the numbers to stay in the Single Market, but are blocked by Corbyn's opposition to it.

The decision on the customs union has effectively been pushed back to the Autumn by May, but we have to make a decision about the Irish border by June or trade talks won't go ahead as planned.

The trouble is that the Cabinet can not decide on which option they want to take, but neither is particularly viable anyway. Max Fac means a border in the Irish Sea which the DUP won't like and the Customs Partnership isn't acceptable to the Empire Tories. In any case it seems unlikely that either option could get through the Commons in their current form due to the growing number of Tory Rebel Forces.

May also has a problem with the grass roots. It is more or less impossible for her to deliver the Brexit they desire whatever she tries.

The growing backlash about the hostile environment also undermines the point of Brexit in reducing immigration. Its is growing apparent, WHY we need immigration and that the people who are being targeted for deportation are simply the easiest to pick off and not the ones that people see as 'a problem'. Indeed you have to wonder about how many immigrants ARE a problem. The idea to control immigration after Brexit was not through the border but through the hostile environment, yet this seems now to be something that will be impossible to continue with politically.

Leave.EU have now been referred to the police for breaking Electoral Law. It also turns out that they found numerous ways to beat the spending limit legally. The female data controller has also been found to have data protection law. Meanwhile Banks and Wigmore as well as Nix (CA and SCL), Cummings (Vote Leave) and Silvester (AIQ) have all been summoned to appear because the Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee. Zuckerberg also does not appear to have completed his answers to the committee as Facebook have had their homework deadline extended to Monday (and has been asked to appear by the 24th May whilst he is in Europe).

Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee Dates
Electoral Commission - Tuesday 15th May
Silvester - Wednesday 16th May
Cummings / Nix - Summoned to appear Tuesday 22nd May
Banks / Wigmore - Tuesday 16th June

Also in parliament in next weeks is and interesting looking ten minute rule bill named 'Representation of the People (Gibraltar)' - Tuesday 15th May

Anyway, we are all set for the predictable 'who blinks first' brinkmanship with the UK aware that if the EU don't blink we go over the cliff and parliament aware that if May delays long enough she bypasses parliamentary democracy or put it in a position with a gun to its head.

Who is looking forward to this year's 'row of the summer'?
It could be a long, hot summer.

Anyway, I want France to win Eurovision and the UK to get some points and not come last. Its not going to happen is it?

My sources tell me that DExEU is being deluged with emails from companies who claim their technology will solve the Irish border issue

Just found this on Twitter. Daniel Hannah writing before the ref. There are no words.
archive.fo/CDBFf

I was out at an awards thing at one of my kids sports club last night. We left before our mp arrived. The kids thought it was for the best as they didn't want me to embarrass them - he's very brexity.

No words indeed!! !! Not least from all of us having to do GDPR training recently.

"Terms were agreed easily enough. Britain withdrew from the EU’s political structures and institutions, but kept its tariff-free arrangements in place." hahahahaha

From that Daniel Hannah piece

During the first 12 months after the vote, Britain confirmed with the various countries that have trade deals with the EU that the same deals would continue. It also used that time to agree much more liberal terms with those states which had run up against EU protectionism, including India, China and Australia. These new treaties came into effect shortly after independence. Britain, like the EFTA countries, now combines global free trade with full participation in EU markets.

....and.....

Some followed us out of the EU (Denmark, Ireland, the Netherlands)

As time passes, it shows how delusional some of those arguing for Leave were/are.

Perhaps the greatest benefit, though, is not easy to quantify. Britain has recovered its self-belief. As we left the EU, we straightened our backs, looked about us, and realised that we were still a nation to be reckoned with
Now would be a good time for him to emigrate to the US where he will no doubt feel at home.

I think this is very telling:

^Unsurprisingly, several other European countries have opted to copy Britain’s deal with the EU, based as it is upon a common market rather than a common government. Some of these countries were drawn from EFTA (Norway, Switzerland and Iceland are all bringing their arrangements into line with ours). Some came from further afield (Serbia, Turkey, Ukraine). Some followed us out of the EU (Denmark, Ireland, the Netherlands).
The United Kingdom now leads a 22-state bloc that forms a free trade area with the EU, but remains outside its political structures. For their part, the EU 24 have continued to push ahead with economic, military and political amalgamation. They now have a common police force and army, a pan-European income tax and a harmonised system of social security. These developments have prompted referendums in three other EU states on whether to copy Britain.^

All the references to other countries copying us, is leading the other countries. It makes you realise how much some brexiteers disliked the EU purely because we weren't in charge and the other EU 27 weren't saying how high when we said jump.

Article about the Eurovision stage invader

order-order.com/2018/05/12/eurovision-stage-invader-corbynista/

Look out for the Conspiracy Theory about why Israel won. Coming to Twitter Soon.

If we hadn't admitted to our Far Left Problem (in addition to our Far Right one) right about now would be a good moment to do it properly.

sigh

Article about the stage invader
Whole incident a bit odd rtb imo Lucky that guido was able to get the story out so promptly.

@lindasgrant
Never going to argue with non-skinny Jewish women winning things.

Tbf, its not hard if its someone who has done before...

Its depressing on many many levels. Including guidos article itself.

Utterly embarrassing. We should be kicked out of eurovision. But we pay. Now we will have the campaign for Breurovision start in earnest.

Already had one MP suggest it this week in the commons

Wasn't Hannan on Newsnight immediately after the Vote saying that we would still enjoy Freedom of Movement, and that nothing significant would change?

He talks in his article about the EU population aging. Does he think the UK population is exempt from this? He's silent on the issue.

I have spent the night watching Eurovision whilst simultaneously breaking down the collapse of UKIP vote in our local area. Made the entire thing more heartening!

Oh how embarrassing for Daniel Hannan. Or it should be - none of the Brexiteers seems the embarrassable type.

The number of student visas granted each year is decided by MPs who, now that they no longer need to worry about unlimited EU migration, can afford to take a long-term view. Parliament sets the number of work permits, the number of refugee places and the terms of family reunification. A points-based immigration system invites the world’s top talent; and the consequent sense of having had to win a place competitively means that new settlers arrive with commensurate pride and patriotism.

Note that sting in the tail.
The implication of that last sentence being that those who arrived in the UK before the points system are ignoble, second-rate, citizens of nowhere, a bunch of users and takers.

May has posted the following on Facebook

Trust me, I’ll take back control — but I’ll need your help

Amid all the noisy debate and technical discussions about our departure from the European Union, I want to take this opportunity to remind the British public of my mission in the negotiations.

Brexit provides the opportunity to build a new relationship with the EU where we are close trading partners and strong allies but with the British Government in control of our laws, our immigration policy and how taxpayers’ money is spent. It provides the opportunity to develop closer relationships with fast growing nations around the world. And in doing all this we will put the values that make us so great as a nation at the forefront: openness, tolerance, diversity and innovation.

You can trust me to deliver.

I will ensure that we take back control of our borders. The public want their own Government to decide on the number of people coming into Britain from across the European Union and that is what we are going to do.

I will ensure that we take back control of our money. We have agreed a settlement with the European Union and the days of vast contributions from taxpayers to the EU budget are coming to an end. So Brexit means there will be billions of pounds that we used to send to Brussels which we will now be able to spend on domestic priorities, including our National Health Service.

I will ensure that we take back control of our laws. So Brexit means that, while we may sometimes choose to take the same approach as the EU, our laws will be made in Westminster, Cardiff, Edinburgh and Belfast, with those laws tried by British judges.

We will leave the Single Market because staying in the Single Market means continued free movement of people, but we will maintain the strongest possible trading partnership with our European neighbours and create new trade deals around the world ensuring that we seize the opportunities to build an economy that works for everyone.

We will get a fairer deal for our farmers and fishermen by leaving the Common Agricultural Policy and the Common Fisheries Policy, regaining control over access to our waters and safeguarding the interests of the UK fishing industry.

We will take back control of our social policy and our tax policy so rather than being decided in Brussels, we will decide them in the interests of ordinary working people in Britain.

And we will leave the Customs Union so we can establish our own independent trade policy and negotiate trade deals in our interests. I have proposed different options for a new customs arrangement with the EU and the government will continue to develop them during the negotiations.

I have three clear tests for the outcomes that we want to see.

First, as a proud unionist and Prime Minister of the whole United Kingdom I am clear that any deal with the EU must protect our precious union and also honour the agreements that were reached in the historic Northern Irish peace process. This means there can be no hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland, or between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. We will uphold the Belfast Agreement in full – and we will ensure the constitutional and economic integrity of the whole United Kingdom.

Second, any agreements must create as little friction as possible for trade to protect the jobs that rely on speedy and integrated supply chains. These are a valued part of our economy, particularly for our manufacturing regions.

And third, we must not constrain our ability to negotiate trade agreements with other countries around the world by being bound into a customs union as the Labour Party would have us. We must be a Global Britain that makes the most of the opportunity to create jobs and growth by trading ambitiously with partners across the world, old and new.

I have put forward a plan to negotiate all these outcomes and to leave the European Union. Throughout this process I have tried to balance the legitimate concerns of those on both sides of the debate and I believe that our negotiating objectives answer those concerns.

The path I am setting out is the path to deliver the Brexit people voted for. Of course, the details are incredibly complex and, as in any negotiation, there will have to be compromises. But if we stick to the task we will seize this once in a generation opportunity to build a stronger, fairer Britain that is respected around the world and confident and united at home.

I will need your help and support to get there. And in return, my pledge to you is simple: I will not let you down

Is it me or is that a desperate plea to the public just before the shit hits the fan to try and save may's neck?

Its very odd

Some interesting articles in The New European this week, including one on male/female voting patterns.

A new study finds that while young women are more left-wing than men of the same age, older women are more right-wing...
In almost all countries, women born after 1955 are more likely to vote for left-wing parties than men of the same age group.
Conversely, in many countries, women born before 1955 are less likely to vote for left-wing parties than their male peers.

(I like the suggestion that women born after 1955 are young.)

The research also showed that the gender gap in left-wing voting became larger for each new birth cohort. So, for example, the difference between women and men in left-wing voting was even greater for those born 1975-85 than it was for those born 1965-75. This suggests that over time we should expect women to become more and more left-wing relative to men, as younger, more left-wing cohorts of women replace older, more right-wing cohorts in the population.

The analysis shows that the decline of religiosity is crucial to explaining the trend. Older women are more religious and this is a more important factor in their vote choice compared to younger women.

On the other hand, younger women tend to have a stronger preference for redistribution and see a larger role for the state compared to men. They vote for left-wing parties in line with these preferences.

So parties would do well to develop policies with the newer generations of women in mind.

www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/gender-politics-rosalind-shorrocks-university-of-manchester-the-conversation-1-5511866

Elsewhere 1 million students get grump about Brexit and ask for a vote on the deal.

A vote that Corbyn opposes. And a vote May will never allow.

Grumpy students can't half protest...

I wonder if May's pledge is anything to do with this:

www.express.co.uk/news/uk/958928/brexit-news-theresa-may-eu-customs-partnership-deal-warning/amp?__twitter_impression=true
Theresa May given STARK warning: 'if you FUDGE BREXIT the party will be FINISHED'

If she delivers Brexit the way she wants, how is that going to help the long term survival of the party.

Just pondering.

Oh thank you, hester, you've given me a cheery start to Sunday !
I was born in 1956 and it is a long time since I was in any way classed as "young" 😂

One million students join calls for vote on Brexit deal
Bravo Femi, @OFOC and @FFS. Femi Oluwole needs a QT slot asap.

Essentially all May ever says is taking control of laws, borders and money. But she never says how. I have no sympathy for her. This is all of her making. She set up unreasonable expectations by unilaterally deciding that leaving the EU could only be achieved by leaving the SM and the CU and now faces a massive backlash if she doesnt.
Then Corbyn is relying on the student vote. And they both have painted themselves into a tiny corner.

I listened to Any Questions last night. Jonathan Dimbleby gave Liam Fox quite a hard time over brexit, and the Labour person too, but he was hopeless anyway in comparison to LF (which speaks volumes). JD even said IF we leave the EU. I think the tide may indeed be turning.

May has not progressed one iota and is still stuck at the starting gate

Her 3 clear () "tests" are simply the cake & eat it
The EU have repeatedly said that cherry-picked combination is not acceptable for the EU and will NOT be the deal

If she keeps repeating the same old red lines, she will keep getting the same answer,
If she keeps repeating them until June / October, then there will be no post-Brexit deal and possibly no transition either.

So May is saying the same as she said nearly two years ago - doesn't want a CU or FoM but wants to protect the GFA but not have border in the Irish Sea. Nor is 'as little friction as possible' the same as 'frictionless'. What exactly in that long statement offers any solutions?

New Farmers Against Brexit@Farmers4EU is getting quite busy too today.

Bit late but this is on in a few hours.