Westministenders: Stalling for Time

[RedToothBrush]

After 14 defeats, the Withdrawal Bill exited the Lords. In much worse condition than anyone dared to predicted.

Now we have those who were viciously against Lords reform, all of a sudden shouting about how much we desperately need it. Well fancy that. Tradition isn't so attractive if you aren't getting your own way.

Daniel Hannan has suddenly admitted that Brexit is not 'going to plan' (there was one?) and Johnson is still his weekly resignation threat.

It now throws things back into Corbyn's court. The Tory Rebel Forces think that they have the numbers to stay in the Single Market, but are blocked by Corbyn's opposition to it.

The decision on the customs union has effectively been pushed back to the Autumn by May, but we have to make a decision about the Irish border by June or trade talks won't go ahead as planned.

The trouble is that the Cabinet can not decide on which option they want to take, but neither is particularly viable anyway. Max Fac means a border in the Irish Sea which the DUP won't like and the Customs Partnership isn't acceptable to the Empire Tories. In any case it seems unlikely that either option could get through the Commons in their current form due to the growing number of Tory Rebel Forces.

May also has a problem with the grass roots. It is more or less impossible for her to deliver the Brexit they desire whatever she tries.

The growing backlash about the hostile environment also undermines the point of Brexit in reducing immigration. Its is growing apparent, WHY we need immigration and that the people who are being targeted for deportation are simply the easiest to pick off and not the ones that people see as 'a problem'. Indeed you have to wonder about how many immigrants ARE a problem. The idea to control immigration after Brexit was not through the border but through the hostile environment, yet this seems now to be something that will be impossible to continue with politically.

Leave.EU have now been referred to the police for breaking Electoral Law. It also turns out that they found numerous ways to beat the spending limit legally. The female data controller has also been found to have data protection law. Meanwhile Banks and Wigmore as well as Nix (CA and SCL), Cummings (Vote Leave) and Silvester (AIQ) have all been summoned to appear because the Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee. Zuckerberg also does not appear to have completed his answers to the committee as Facebook have had their homework deadline extended to Monday (and has been asked to appear by the 24th May whilst he is in Europe).

Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee Dates
Electoral Commission - Tuesday 15th May
Silvester - Wednesday 16th May
Cummings / Nix - Summoned to appear Tuesday 22nd May
Banks / Wigmore - Tuesday 16th June

Also in parliament in next weeks is and interesting looking ten minute rule bill named 'Representation of the People (Gibraltar)' - Tuesday 15th May

Anyway, we are all set for the predictable 'who blinks first' brinkmanship with the UK aware that if the EU don't blink we go over the cliff and parliament aware that if May delays long enough she bypasses parliamentary democracy or put it in a position with a gun to its head.

Who is looking forward to this year's 'row of the summer'?
It could be a long, hot summer.

Anyway, I want France to win Eurovision and the UK to get some points and not come last. Its not going to happen is it?

This is a strong article in GQ which nails many of the Quitters beliefs.

It might be just possible to have a sea border for goods - only looking from the pov of avoiding delays

There are already checks on livestock, after various problems with British beef, foot& mouth etc.
So some goods are normally checked before being loaded onto ferries anyway

Checks made now at ports could be extended - requires planning & investment - and maybe any further checks required could be made on the ferry ?

NI is a unique case for historical reasons and the EU would be prepared to treat it as a completely special case
but not Scotland or London too

How can 2 thirds of a random group polled have said it is worth losing Scotland to achieve Brexit??!!!

If the Tories win the next election and can ditch the DUP, will it then go for a sea border? Is that the medium term plan?

Is that what we all understood the backstop to be when the fluffy agreement was made? That it applied to NI only. It was the DUP's insistence on non divergence but only when it suits them that made it seem like a complete UK deal.

Any good news about Brexit?

Seemed like meaning that the Government was tying its hands into SM and CU, rather than the EU offering anything to all UK.

I don't see why it'd be bound to lead to the break up of the union. UK citizens are remarkably apathetic. As we are experiencing.

Happy to be proven wrong, but all my conversations with Commission and member states suggest that the backstop is not on offer to the whole UK, just Northern Ireland.

wasn't one of the DUPs insistences that this not happen ? And that NI was treated exactly the same as the rUK (except for gay marriages, naturally).

Whilst there are few things that would give me greater pleasure than seeing the DUP be thrown under a bus by the Tories, is this a Good or a Bad thing ?

Bad for the UK taxpayer, obviously. We've had to spunk out billions for nothing.

Any good news about Brexit?

We only have 315 days of stupid news before exit day?

(We'll ignore the fact we will have years of it after).

The DUPs red line is no wet border, but they might back down rather than force a GE with Corbyn as PM in waiting

Especially since checks on a wet border are far less noticeable than checks on a land border

• and of course much easier to do, which is why it is the most practical option if the govt refuses to keep the whole UK in the Single Market.

Main problem for May:
Even with a special deal for NI, rUK will still fall off a cliff unless she U-turns on the Single Market for the entire UK

re Scotland:
Scotland doesn't have an international treaty lodged at the UN, negotiated under the auspices of the EU and US.

Many Scots may be offended if they don't get a special deal too, but there are a lot of hardcore unionists there who won't blink and iirc, ¼ of the population came from England anyway !
So, May would probably judge it a risk worth taking, especially as the pro-Indies are not polling high enough to scare her
She may also think that Brexit will be a horrible warning of what happens when one country splits from a much larger bloc into which it has integrated for many years.

The DUP would have to judge whether
a) they - or rather their Tory hard right supporters in Parliament - can force a leadership contest
and
b) would any new leader be of the hard right and offer them a better deal,
or would the MPs whittle down the choice for party members between 2 pragmatists who would support a wet border.

New peers:

@ShippersUnbound
Putting out a peers list at teatime on a Friday ahead of a royal wedding is a disgusting, underhand and shifty enterprise. It is also proof that someone in Downing Street is doing their job properly.

Pickles.

Ian Dunt @ iandunt
New peerages released. Like the list of a dinner party from hell.

Nuff said.

Those peers, I assume they're all Leavers?

Sam Coates Times @ samcoatestimes
New peerages announced including peerage for Theresa May's friend Catherine Meyer

I have no idea if they are leavers. But they were clearly all picked on the basis of their expertise....

So, the 'Rev' Willie McCrea is in for a peerage. Wanted the British gov't to launch air strikes on Ireland in the '80s. And they said that Ireland's politics was too much in thrall to religion in the past. Ain't nothin' to NI and more Revs involved in political life than you could swing a cat at.

www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/state-papers-dup-mp-william-mccrea-wanted-air-strikes-launched-on-the-republic-in-the-1980s-30867020.html

Wanted the British gov't to launch air strikes on Ireland in the '80s
Crackers. www.buzzfeed.com/jamesball/trump-supporters-have-discovered-the-dup-and-its-just-the?utm_term=.koby5JaM4#.tmJQDmw4r
Pickles' google search is heavily annotated I note.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/17/the-guardian-view-on-the-cabinet-and-brexit-beyond-a-joke

Getting two pandas to mate in captivity turns out to be a cinch compared with getting the Conservative party to agree what it wants. 😭