Westministenders: Stalling for Time

[RedToothBrush]

After 14 defeats, the Withdrawal Bill exited the Lords. In much worse condition than anyone dared to predicted.

Now we have those who were viciously against Lords reform, all of a sudden shouting about how much we desperately need it. Well fancy that. Tradition isn't so attractive if you aren't getting your own way.

Daniel Hannan has suddenly admitted that Brexit is not 'going to plan' (there was one?) and Johnson is still his weekly resignation threat.

It now throws things back into Corbyn's court. The Tory Rebel Forces think that they have the numbers to stay in the Single Market, but are blocked by Corbyn's opposition to it.

The decision on the customs union has effectively been pushed back to the Autumn by May, but we have to make a decision about the Irish border by June or trade talks won't go ahead as planned.

The trouble is that the Cabinet can not decide on which option they want to take, but neither is particularly viable anyway. Max Fac means a border in the Irish Sea which the DUP won't like and the Customs Partnership isn't acceptable to the Empire Tories. In any case it seems unlikely that either option could get through the Commons in their current form due to the growing number of Tory Rebel Forces.

May also has a problem with the grass roots. It is more or less impossible for her to deliver the Brexit they desire whatever she tries.

The growing backlash about the hostile environment also undermines the point of Brexit in reducing immigration. Its is growing apparent, WHY we need immigration and that the people who are being targeted for deportation are simply the easiest to pick off and not the ones that people see as 'a problem'. Indeed you have to wonder about how many immigrants ARE a problem. The idea to control immigration after Brexit was not through the border but through the hostile environment, yet this seems now to be something that will be impossible to continue with politically.

Leave.EU have now been referred to the police for breaking Electoral Law. It also turns out that they found numerous ways to beat the spending limit legally. The female data controller has also been found to have data protection law. Meanwhile Banks and Wigmore as well as Nix (CA and SCL), Cummings (Vote Leave) and Silvester (AIQ) have all been summoned to appear because the Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee. Zuckerberg also does not appear to have completed his answers to the committee as Facebook have had their homework deadline extended to Monday (and has been asked to appear by the 24th May whilst he is in Europe).

Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee Dates
Electoral Commission - Tuesday 15th May
Silvester - Wednesday 16th May
Cummings / Nix - Summoned to appear Tuesday 22nd May
Banks / Wigmore - Tuesday 16th June

Also in parliament in next weeks is and interesting looking ten minute rule bill named 'Representation of the People (Gibraltar)' - Tuesday 15th May

Anyway, we are all set for the predictable 'who blinks first' brinkmanship with the UK aware that if the EU don't blink we go over the cliff and parliament aware that if May delays long enough she bypasses parliamentary democracy or put it in a position with a gun to its head.

Who is looking forward to this year's 'row of the summer'?
It could be a long, hot summer.

Anyway, I want France to win Eurovision and the UK to get some points and not come last. Its not going to happen is it?

Thanks red. place marking with the news that that sacred cow of 'fishing' in that sacred cow of the Faulklands is under threat due to brexit
Faulklands fishing
and that Jezza has another rebel labour lord, in the shape of Peter Mandellson, criticising his handling of Brexit and calling for a people's vote as the only way to resolve the issue.
Need for a people's vote

Anyway, I want France to win Eurovision

Traitor. They'll have you hung drawn and quartered for this sort of thing in Brexit Britain. It's the British way.

(Thanks for the new thread).

Thanks red

Thanks Red. at Johnson's weekly resignation threat.

Eurovision...

Traitor. They'll have you hung drawn and quartered for this sort of thing in Brexit Britain. It's the British way.

Oh they certainly will.
Its about refugees.
the English translation of the lyrics
Ever so slightly political.

I used to love eurovision when I was wee in scotland.
This is the French one. Lovely words. Thanks for the thread red.
wiwibloggs.com/2018/01/23/mercy-lyrics-madame-monsieur-france-eurovision-2018/211110/

.

Thanks for the new thread and excellent OP summary, red

.

www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/05/12/brexit-exit-date-punters-get-nervous-the-following-the-electoral-commission-ruling-on-campaign-funding/
More Euro fun. Prince Harry's pa and step ma doing rather well at Cretan dancing this week.
www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=uTUT_D0Sn9k

https://news.sky.com/story/amp/jeremy-corbyn-dismisses-calls-to-back-eea-membership-after-brexit-11367906?twitterr_impression=true

Jeremy Corbyn has confirmed he is opposed to Britain opting for a Norway-style relationship with the EU after Brexit,
despite fresh calls from Labour MPs to back the model in a parliamentary vote.
…
By amending the EU Withdrawal Bill to allow for continued EEA membership, peers have prompted a major headache for both Mr Corbyn and the Prime Minister.

.

Place marking

Leak: HMRC 'says customs partnership won't work' as Theresa May softens stance on Max Fac

< and May is still ignoring the fact that the EU has already rejected it, for similar reasons >

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/05/11/hmrc-says-customs-partnership-wont-work-astheresa-may-softens/

… as it emerged Mrs May is prepared to accept the Brexiteers’ favoured “Max Fac” option

HMRC believes the customs partnership idea is "incredibly complicated" and impractical,
Whitehall sources have told The Telegraph,

and the idea it could be used to solve the Irish border problem is "for the birds".

(Paywall - good analysis) Theresa May's desperate last roll of the dice to break customs union impasse

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/05/11/theresa-mays-desperate-last-roll-dice-break-customs-union-impasse/

It feels like a last roll of the dice:

after 10 days in which Britain’s Brexit plans have been in “complete free fall” - in the words of one senior ministerial aide

• Theresa May has hit upon a plan to resolve the impasse over Britain’s future. … Given that the Government published its position-paper outlining the two options last August - that’s 10 months ago - no one is seriously expecting ministers to come up with magic new solutions in the space of a single weekend.

Instead, the real game, say aides who will be giving technical support to the teams as they spar this weekend,
is to try to confront ministers with the trade-offs that are to be made,
after months of ministers simply waving away advice inconvenient to their favoured outcomes

…another aide, using a cricketing metaphor.
“For them it’s just ‘hit and hope’ when advice conflicts with what they want to hear

So this is ultimately a clever bit of political thinking - a smart way forward in a pretty dire situation.”
…
The problem is that, for "MaxFac" [unicorn tech] to work,
the EU must accept the UK’s idea of exempting 80 per cent of trade across the border

• but they will not.

The alternative is cameras and infrastructure on the border, a scenario which, even the Policy Exchange report admits,
will make it “almost inevitable” that dissident republicans will attack them.
…
But - as Michel Barnier himself recently pointed out -
this is not a border for people (who move freely under the Irish-UK Common Travel Area) but only for goods,

and it partially already exists for animal health checks, some timber products and products like fertiliser, which are sensitive for security reasons.

Mr Davis has ruled out such a border,
but Whitehall officials are already quietly pondering how this might be finessed.
…
the European Commission negotiators have already ruled out Mrs May’s preferred Customs Partnership as “magical thinking” that can never work.

(Internally, Whitehall sources are also clear that HMRC has zero faith in the New Customs Partnership and has been warning for 12 months now that ministers need to choose between a customs union or a clean break.

“HMRC is pretty clear, there are no fantasy solutions,” says an industry source briefed by HMRC.)
…
There is no obvious compromise solution in which all sides emerge as winners. This perhaps explains why some Brexiteers, reportedly led by Michael Gove,
are already talking about creative ways to delay the reckoning. < beyond the next GE >

One solution that analysts say might be acceptable to the EU is for the UK to agree to remain in the Customs Union for an extended period

• say five years to allow technology to develop -

and keep Northern Ireland aligned with the EU until a new relationship is established.

To soften this, the EU would undertake to continue to discuss evolving customs policy

• even to enable the UK to adopt its rebate system if Dr Fox was able to strike a deal in that time < > - for the duration of this interim period.

But ultimately for the "Future Partnership" the UK would be committed to a Canada-style FTA and the ‘MaxFac’ solution
< so hard Brexit, but delayed to avoid GE consequences >
…
The next hurdle is the June 28-29 European Council.
As Mr Coveney has warned, failure to break the British political deadlock risks provoking a “serious” crisis.

In this scenario British officials fear the EU will simply refuse to further discuss the future relationship,
or even worse, withdraw the offer of a transition deal,

forcing the British come to terms - or perhaps crash out with no deal at all.
These are the real risks, real choices.

Following

something else for the calendar, or has it been rescheduled again?

Parliament's vote on the Brexit deal must include an option to remain in the EU

Last email I got "This petition will now be debated on Monday 11 June at 4.30pm."

So, nearly a year after I first contacted my MP about Brexit, they email me (notice the pre GDPR date ) to ask "what sort of Brexit" I want.

Presumably they missed the 3 emails I send them (via They WorkForYou) and the two via their constituency office where I made it clear I didn't want any Brexit.

They even have the **ing cheek to note that our constituency had a majority for Remain, while asking that question.

Dear Dante

There's less than a year to go until Brexit and an even shorter amount of time before Parliament is asked to vote on the deal that Prime Minister Theresa May brings back from Brussels.

Here in this constituency more voters wanted to remain - but not by much.

(Which could also be said of Leave as a whole ....)

When I vote on the final deal it will be a big decision; whilst I personally voted to remain I also respect the decision by those that voted to leave.

I'd be grateful therefore if you could take a minute to fill out my Brexit survey and let me know a little more about how you voted and what you want to see in the future.

If you click the personalised link button below you will be taken to the survey on my website

Place marking from you know where. From the rehearsal I still can't decide between bookie's favourite Cyprus, Ukraine, Germany, Spain, Ireland, Australia and France.

Jeremy Corbyn has confirmed he is opposed to Britain opting for a Norway-style relationship with the EU after Brexit

So the Daily Express is more open to compromise than JC?

So what version of a job's first brexit does he think he's going to get? He has to go. Or the whole party have to just ignore and defy him on every vote. But either way - the labour party cannot keep letting him get away with this.

Just read out to dh that bit about Corbyn confirming that he is still opposed to even a Norway style Brexit.

His comment: "He's a tosser"

That about sums him up!

(useful place mat king )